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Investment Analysts Bullish on Pakistan

It means that Pak national debt is much less of a problem given the debt-read gdp ratio of just 30%.
Even a small effort to collect more taxes can make a big dent in deficits.

Ah yes, you can be trusted to always look at the bright side, for which I admire you. :)

However, the informal economy flourishes because of its tax-free status and black money. Trying to bring it into the tax net will cause it to either flee or shrink, leaving the state coffers unable to deal with its debt obligations, just like now.
 
Ah yes, you can be trusted to always look at the bright side, for which I admire you. :)

However, the informal economy flourishes because of its tax-free status and black money. Trying to bring it into the tax net will cause it to either flee or shrink, leaving the state coffers unable to deal with its debt obligations, just like now.

More and more of the economy will become documented with the rising use of technology. Bringing a small slice of it in the tax net will make a significant difference for public finances.
 
but unfortunately bulls and cows get slaughtered in Pakistan. So it has no future there
 
More and more of the economy will become documented with the rising use of technology. Bringing a small slice of it in the tax net will make a significant difference for public finances.

Fair enough, but it would be appropriate to feel bullish only if and when that happens.
 
Here's a BR report on expected Pak textile export boost to EU:

Mian Zahid Aslam President Faisalabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FCCI) has said that EU has granted 75 items duty-free market access under the Autonomous Trade Concessions (ATCs) till December 31, 2013 of which 26 items originated in Pakistan have been offered under Tariff Regulated Quotas (TRQ) while 49 items have been covered under non-tariff regulated quotas effective from 15th November, 2012 as the package has been notified in the official Journal of EU.

As an increased market access to EU, which is the largest trading partner of Pakistan. Pakistan will make a net gain of 31.4 per cent in export of textiles under the EU Autonomous Preference Scheme, he added. Value of exports for 2011 was $1709 million and under the EU Preference Scheme, the exports are estimated to rise to $2246 million yielding in net increase of 537 million, he added. He asserted that the package will provide real and substantial support to Pakistan's exports mainly of textile exports to EU.

He continued that EU Preference Scheme was highly beneficial for the business community and urged textile exporters of Faisalabad particularly to make best use of the facility to increase their exports to EU countries. He further stated that by availing these facilities Pakistan will make double gain; firstly, they will avail the quota facilities and increase the volume of their exports and secondly, Pakistan will qualify for further concessions in the year 2014 when this quota region for these items is reviewed.

Chamber Chief however pointed out that trends in both exports and imports indicated contraction in national economy, which could cause serious repercussions for employment, fiscal outcome etc mainly because of shortage of electricity and gas to the industries. Quoting, he said that export growth was negative by 2.3 per cent in the July-September quarter while imports declined by 6 per cent during this period, indicating sluggish economic activities in the country, which could depress the export growth prospects further and put more pressure on the current account.

He continued that in the wake of lesser availability of gas particularly to Faisalabad industries from where about $4 billion exports generated annually to the national textile exports, trade surpluses will hardly be available for exports and apprehended to reap real results of the EU package to Pakistan.

Mian Zahid emphasised that country needs greater diversification in the structure and direction of trade with increased focus on value addition and increased export expansion through regional and new markets like Africa, South America and Islamic world. He urged the government for better market access by concluding FTAs and PTAs with countries of potential markets for Pakistani products and also facilitating towards emerging economic blocks of China and Russia and even neighbouring Indian market of 1.2 billion people.

He pleaded for adopting trade diplomacy which could help gain GSP Plus status for Pakistan in 2014 emphasising also to the exporters for compliance with the relevant rules of origin of products and the procedures related thereto. He also emphasised the need for a well consulted trade policy by the government in this context.

....

Pakistan to make 31.4 percent gain in textile exports under EU scheme: FCCI | Business Recorder
 
Here's a News report on Oct jump in FDI in Pakistan:

Pakistan’s foreign direct investment (FDI) climbed sharply to $125.4 million during October, providing some relief to the deteriorating balance of payments position, according to the data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.



The FDI inflows increased to $125.4 million just in the single month of October as compared to $59.6 million during the same month last year, depicting a significant jump of $71.2 million, or 131 percent, it said.



The increase in FDI inflows was evident from the fact that foreign companies invested $187.1 million in various sectors of the economy during October as compared to $186.4 million during the corresponding month last year.



Nonetheless, the FDI outflows, including divestments and repatriation from the foreign investors stood at $61.7 million as against the outflows of $126.8 million during October 2011.



Oil and gas exploration, trade, electrical machinery and transport were the main sectors, which attracted a significant amount of foreign direct investment in the country during the last month.



Economic experts say that improvement in the FDI inflows is a positive sign for the economy, showing revival in investors’ confidence in Pakistan.



The inflows of FDI in Pakistan plummeted by 24.2 percent to $244.4 million during the first four months of the current fiscal year as against $322.7 million during the same period last year.



The fall in FDI inflows during July-October FY13 amounted to $638.5 million as compared to $766.6 million a year ago.



The provisional figures released by the Satate Bank of Pakistan showed that foreign private investment attracted $370.8 million during July-October FY13.



The net inflows of foreign investment in Pakistan stood at $365.2 million as compared to $221.2 million a year ago, showing a growth of 65.1percent.



The portfolio investment at the Karachi Stock Exchange stood at $126.4 million as against the outflow of $74.9 million during the corresponding period last year.



During October, the portfolio investment was recorded at $30.1 million as against the outflow of $28 million last month.



Of the total FDI of $244.4 million, major investment was made in the oil and gas exploration sector followed by IT services and information technology, and the transport sectors.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-143063-FDI-rises-to-$1254m-in-October
 
Here's Bloomberg on outsize returns of KSE-100:

The KSE 100 Index, the benchmark for Pakistan’s $43 billion equity market, rose 7.3 percent in the past three years when adjusted for price swings, the top gain among 72 markets worldwide, according to the BLOOMBERG RISKLESS RETURN RANKING. Pakistan had lower stock volatility than 82 percent of the nations including the U.S. (SPX) Over five years, Pakistan’s risk- adjusted returns ranked eighth.

The country’s 190 million people are boosting purchases three times faster than Asian peers as higher rural incomes and record remittances outweigh fighting on the Afghan border, violence in Karachi that led to at least 2,100 deaths this year and power outages that sparked rioting. The region’s fastest earnings growth may increase economic stability, according to Karachi-based Atlas Asset Management Ltd. Foreign investors added to holdings for five straight months, lured by Asia’s lowest valuations and biggest dividend yields.

“Stocks are very cheap and there are some very good businesses in Pakistan,” said Andrew Brudenell, whose HSBC Frontier Markets Fund has returned 18 percent this year, beating 92 percent of peers tracked by Bloomberg, and holds more shares in the country than are represented in benchmark indexes. “We still think there’s some positive growth to come from the markets.”

Earnings in the KSE 100 index advanced 45 percent during the past year, the largest gain among 17 Asian equity indexes, and this month hit the highest level since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2005.

Consumer spending in Pakistan has increased at a 26 percent average pace the past three years, compared with 7.7 percent for Asia, according to data compiled by Euromonitor International, a consumer research firm. While the growth in Pakistan may slow to 6.6 percent in 2012, it will still exceed the 5.3 percent pace in Asia, according to Euromonitor estimates.

Engro Foods Ltd. (EFOODS), a Karachi-based seller of dairy products, reported a 214 percent jump in net income for the third quarter, while Unilever Pakistan Ltd. (ULEVER), a unit of the world’s second- biggest consumer-goods company, had a 36 percent gain, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Dividends in Pakistan have also climbed at the fastest pace in the region. Payouts increased 49 percent in the past 12 months, giving the KSE 100 index a dividend yield of 6.6 percent, double the 3.3 percent average in Asia, Bloomberg data show.
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Foreign investors have purchased a net $153 million of Pakistan shares since the beginning of July, according to data from the Karachi Stock Exchange. Overseas holdings amount to about 20 percent of the bourse’s free float, or shares available for trading, according to Adnan Katchi, the head of international equity sales at Arif Habib Ltd.

Bond investors are also growing more confident. Pakistan’s international debt, rated Caa1 at Moody’s Investors Service, or seven levels below investment grade, has returned 32 percent this year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Next Generation Markets Index. Yields hit a two-year low of 8.5 percent on Oct. 26.

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The country is luring more of the world’s biggest consumer brands as spending increases. Debenhams Plc (DEB), the U.K.’s second- largest department-store chain, and Nine West Group Inc., a seller of women’s shoes and handbags owned by New York-based Jones Group Inc. (JNY), opened their first Pakistan outlets this year.....

Pakistan Stocks Best as Violence Ignored: Riskless Return - Bloomberg
 
^^^ Is it really necessary to post the same thing in multiple threads?
 
Here's Dawn on KSE continuing rally to set new records:

Pakistani stocks hit a record high for the fourth day in a row on Friday, closing the week up nearly 3 per cent, driven by a rally in cement shares and expectations that the central bank will ease rates next week.

The Karachi Stock Exchange’s (KSE) benchmark 100-share index surged as high as 16,651.10 in intraday trading.

It closed at 16,573.86, up 0.28 per cent or 46.78 points from the previous session.

“Investors remained bullish in cement stocks, while the textile sector also joined the bandwagon,” said Samar Iqbal, an equity dealer with Topline Securities.

“With the end of the year approaching, there was also renewed interest in the banking sector.” Fauji Cement rose 2.05 per cent, or 0.14 rupees, to 6.98 per share, while National Bank was up 4.99 per cent, or 2.37 rupees, to 49.87 per share.

Karachi Electric fell 0.72 per cent, or 0.05 rupees, to 6.88 per share.

The market also found support from expectations that the State Bank of Pakistan will cut its discount rate with inflation under control.

The government will publish November inflation figures on Monday, while the central bank meets later in the week to decide on monetary policy.

In the currency market, the Pakistani rupee strengthened to 96.49/96.54 to the dollar, compared to Thursday’s close of 96.54/96.59.

Overnight rates in the money market remained flat at 9.50 per cent.

Pakistani stocks hit fresh record high, rupee strengthens | DAWN.COM
 
Here's Emirates 24-7 report on a massive property investment deal between Abu Dhabi Group and Malik Riaz:

UAE’s Abu Dhabi Group and Pakistani real estate tycoon Malik Riaz on Friday signed a deal to invest $45 billion (Dh165.15 billion) in Pakistan including building the world’s tallest building in Karachi.

Pakistan’s news channel Geo reported today that $35 billion (Dh165.15 billion) will be pumped in Sindh province while the rest will be invested in Lahore and Islamabad.

Under the deal, Sports City, International City, Media City, Educational and Medical City will be built in Pakistan’s financial capital. The news channel said that world’s Seven Wonders will also be built as part of the project.

The deal is expected to generate over 2.5 million jobs in Pakistan.

The channel, however, didn’t reveal the time for the completion of the project.

Abu Dhabi Group, property tycoon to build world's tallest building in Pakistan - Emirates 24/7
 
Here's Emirates 24-7 report on a massive property investment deal between Abu Dhabi Group and Malik Riaz:

UAE’s Abu Dhabi Group and Pakistani real estate tycoon Malik Riaz on Friday signed a deal to invest $45 billion (Dh165.15 billion) in Pakistan including building the world’s tallest building in Karachi.

Pakistan’s news channel Geo reported today that $35 billion (Dh165.15 billion) will be pumped in Sindh province while the rest will be invested in Lahore and Islamabad.

Under the deal, Sports City, International City, Media City, Educational and Medical City will be built in Pakistan’s financial capital. The news channel said that world’s Seven Wonders will also be built as part of the project.

The deal is expected to generate over 2.5 million jobs in Pakistan.

The channel, however, didn’t reveal the time for the completion of the project.

Abu Dhabi Group, property tycoon to build world's tallest building in Pakistan - Emirates 24/7

Wasn't this whole deal a fraudulent claim that was exposed as a hoax?
 
Who gives a **** about FDI, 90% of which is used to make short term profiteering through stock markets. FDI is only good when it is long term investment in production sector, increasing GDP, increasing employment.

Let's see: TWO industry analysts from the SAME company are bullish on ONE sector in Pakistan - cement - and the thread reads "Investment Analysts bullish on Pakistan". Misleading, and sadly intentional too.

Yawn. Tell me when FDI actually picks up due to bullish sentiments. That is the litmus test:

from: Asia Times Online :: Crime bludgeons Karachi business



Does that sound bullish to anyone?
 
Here's an Aljazeera report titled "Pakistani economy grows in spite of state":

Lahore, Pakistan - Zia Hyder Naqi started his first business when he was eight years old, turning old newspapers into paper bags in the eastern Pakistani city of Lahore. He didn’t earn much, but the 1.5 Pakistani Rupees ($0.02) he made every day was enough to buy him his lunch, and a sense of satisfaction at having made something.

Today, 40 years later, Naqi is the managing director at a plastics manufacturing firm that employs 430 people, and earned $14.2m in revenue last year.

Synthetic Products and Enterprises Ltd (SPEL) is one of the largest firms of its kind in the country, and makes everything from plastic cups to the inner sides of car doors for firms such as Toyota, Honda and Suzuki, and everything in between.

Business has been good for SPEL, Naqi says, but that's not because the government is providing a conducive climate for economic growth.

"Let's start by saying that we work in spite of the government and not because of the government," Naqi told Al Jazeera. "It really means that we have to struggle. We compete against the best in the world."

Power cuts

Pakistan suffers from a raft of economic problems - spiraling inflation and unemployment, a chronic energy crisis, a lack of implementation of existing policies and an unstable investment environment, owing to the country’s tense security situation.

Primary among those difficulties, Naqi says, is the issue of power cuts - or load-shedding, as it is referred to in Pakistan.

"Our reliability is affected when we have load-shedding, because we don't know when power will arrive and go. So we have to create back-ups, which means that the cost of operations goes up. It affects morale, it affects our work, it affects our delivery, it affects our customers. [It affects] the cost at which we deliver, and how competitive or uncompetitive we become to the customer," he says, estimating that the cost of putting in those back-up system raises the overall cost of his products by as much as 10 percent.

Last year, Naqi’s firm spent an extra $1.2m on putting back-up generators into place, fuelling them and paying for their general upkeep, as opposed to taking electricity off the grid. Moreover, he says, that $1.2m is a sunk cost, as it is not being invested into productive processes. The result: it’s harder for Pakistan’s products to compete in the international market, as the cost of producing electricity pushes firms into a loop of spiraling costs and being unable to further invest in new technologies.

Pakistan’s electricity woes, analysts say, are a result of industrial growth outstripping the pace of growth in generation, and a woefully maintained distribution system that results in line losses of around 20 percent At its peak last summer, the country’s electricity shortfall was a staggering 8,500MW - about 40 percent of the country’s total generation capacity (not counting transmission losses)
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Meanwhile, far from the think tanks and policy committees, the entrepreneurial spirit of the eight-year-old Naqi is still alive and well. Over the last month, dozens of shops have sprung up all over Lahore, selling elections campaign-related merchandise - everything from pins and badges (for about $0.40 each) to gigantic flags ($2.44), from T-shirts ($3.05) to stuffed soft toys in the shape of party election symbols.

"With the amount of money that I’m making right now," says Muhammad Imran, 30, the owner of one such shop, "we could have built a whole bridge!"
....

Pakistan's economy grows 'in spite of state' - Features - Al Jazeera English
 
Wasn't this whole deal a fraudulent claim that was exposed as a hoax?

Nothing happened to that edifice of a building.
Abu Dhabi Group, property tycoon to build world's tallest building in Pakistan.
It just turned out to be the "World's Tallest Story"!! :lol:
 

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