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Investment Analysts Bullish on Pakistan

Bullish my foot. Don't show me surveys and demomgraphics. Show me hard facts, how much investment done in Pak recently by gop and foreign investors. :lol: I bet it is less than 1 billion dolls. Who would invest in such a country.
 
Here's a News report on Pak current account surplus in Q1 of FY 2012-13:

KARACHI: Pakistan’s current account posted a surplus of $432 million during the first quarter of the current fiscal year, giving some respite to government confronting fast pace of foreign exchange reserves and weak foreign investment inflows, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.



The country experienced a current account deficit of $1.339 billion during the same period last year, it said.



A modest surplus in the current account balance is in line with the expectations of the economic analysts and experts, which have already indicated that the current account would remain in the green zone for the first quarter of FY13 in the wake of $1.2 billion Coalition Support Fund (CSF) reimbursements transferred by the United States to the services account of the country earlier in August this year.



Despite slowdown in the financial inflows and moderate pace of exports, the analysts attributed the current account surplus to two major developments, external account witnessed a decent growth in workers’ remittances and military aid from the United States under the CFS.



This is the second consecutive surplus in the current account balance as it recorded a surplus of $919 million in July-August FY13.



Analysts said the CSF put positive impact on both, current and fiscal deficits of the country.



“The position of the balance of payments will be highly dependent on the pace of dollar inflows and international oil prices in the second quarter of this fiscal year,” said Sayem Ali, an economist at a foreign bank.



“Oil prices and large debt repayments are likely to pose significant risk to the balance of payments position in FY13,” said Ali.



The country is expected to record small level of current account deficit in anticipation of another $600 million payment by the United States administration under the head of CSF by November, he said. This will help contain the current account deficit and cushion forex reserves to some extent, he added.



“The full-year FY13 current account deficit is likely to be $3.5 billion, or 1.5 percent of GDP as compared to the deficit of $4.6 billion (two percent) reported in the last fiscal year,” he said. The current account witnessed a deficit of $331 million during September 2012 as against the surplus of $1.084 billion for August this year.



The current account during July-September stood at 0.7 percent of GDP as compared to a deficit of 2.3 percent of GDP in the same period last year, it said.



According to the data, the trade balance remained negative as it amounted to $3.634 billion during the first three months of the current fiscal year as compared to $4.158 billion in July-September FY13.



During the period July-September 2012, services account saw a surplus of $2.120 billion as compared to $1.190 billion in the same period last year.



Total exports stood at $5.994 billion against $6.142 billion, while imports reached $9.628 billion against $10.30 billion during the corresponding period a year ago.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-138178-Current-account-posts-$432m-surplus-in-first-quarter
 
Here's an ET report on the performance of a Swedish fund investing in Pakistan:


The company is currently in the process of trying to find a distributor for the British market, where a large Pakistani expatriate population would form a natural investor base. DESIGN: ESSA MALIK
KARACHI:

One of the best performing mutual funds that invests in Pakistani stocks is based in Sweden.

The Tundra Pakistanfond, run by Stockholm-based asset management company Tundra Fonder, was launched in October 2011, within one month of the firm’s founding, and currently has the equivalent of over $40 million in assets under management, belonging to nearly 20,000 Swedish individual investors. Uniquely for European asset managers, Tundra’s Pakistan fund constitutes roughly 80% of the company’s total assets under management, tying its fortunes very closely to the Pakistani economy, or at least European investor interest in it.

But perhaps what is interesting is the fact that the fund is one of the best-performing funds that invests in Pakistan, returning approximately 21.3% in Swedish krone over the past year (about 20.2% in US dollars). That performance handily beats the MSCI Pakistan index, which rose by about 13.1% in US dollar terms during that period. The KSE-100 Index has yielded a 20.7% return in US dollars during that period.

Yet that is not Tundra’s only impressive feat. According to data provided by the Mutual Funds Association of Pakistan, Tundra’s performance, when taking into account the impact of the rupee’s depreciation, would beat all but five of the equity funds managed by firms based in Karachi, placing the Tundra Pakistanfond comfortably in the top one-third of all funds that invest in the Pakistani equity markets.

So how does Tundra do it? Its founder and CEO, Mattias Martinsson, appears to have had substantial experience in investing in emerging and frontier markets. Martinsson, 39, began his career in 1996 at a company called Hagströmer & Qviberg which specialised in offering Russian stocks to Swedish investors. That interest in Russia continues to this day, with Tundra’s only other country-specific fund being a Russia-focused fund.....

This remarkable understanding of the Pakistani market appears to come from a long-abiding interest in the country on the part of Martinsson.

“I came across Pakistan in 2005. At that time I, as most other people today, I had a lot of prejudice. I thought that Pakistan was an underdeveloped equity market, ruled by a military dictator. What I found was something very much different: IFRS [accounting standards], good corporate governance (for emerging markets), good disclosure and a well functioning equity market. In 2007, I attended a frontier markets conference in Singapore and met with ten or so Pakistani companies. Comparing them to the other attendees, I concluded that they were so far ahead, not only compared to their peers in frontier markets but also many emerging markets. I then visited Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad in early 2008 and came back excited looking for a fund to invest in. There was none. Since then it has been a dream to launch a Pakistan fund.”

While it is not the only European mutual investing exclusively in Pakistan, it appears to be the largest. And given its compliance with UCITS IV European regulations, it is eligible to be marketed throughout the European Union. The company is currently in the process of trying to find a distributor for the British market, where a large Pakistani expatriate population would form a natural investor base.

Given Tundra’s astute investment decisions so far, European investors would be wise to keep an eye on its Pakistan fund.


Frontier markets: Betting on Pakistan pays off for Swedish asset manager – The Express Tribune
 
RIAZ , i think everyone are able to see what the gloomy realty is.......so dont waste your time trying to prove something that is not present
 
I'd have to second Riaz here. I'm not an economist but from what I see regularly on streets, I'm quite optimistic about Pakistan's economy.
I'm an agricultural Landlord with plans to pursue Real Estate Development and Construction. Businesses from from small shops to Multi-Million Dollar real-estate projects are everywhere to be seen. Streets of Pakistan are flooded with over a Million Rupees cars. Restaurants, for all classes, are almost packed. There's at least over 8 Sold-out Real Estate Projects worth over a 100 Crores within 50 KM of Karachi Tool Plaza. A Land Lord with merely 100 acres of Agricultural Land is roaming in Vigo.

Now I'm not sure what do these things suggest if not an economic stability considering severe Energy Crisis, poor Law and Order and Terrorism among multiple other issues.
 
You were being intellectually dishonest, were you not?

Then your opponent is perfectly justified in questioning your integrity.
 
Here's Daily Times on KSE-100 crossing 16000 level:

Hopes for cut in policy rate boost KSE by 289 points

KARACHI: The Karachi stock market witnessed a historic trading week by breaching the psychological level of 16,000 points on back of hopes for further decline in the State Bank of Pakistan’s policy rate after consumer price index (CPI) inflation figures for October 2012 clocked in at 7.66 percent.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share index gained 288.83 points or 1.82 percent to close at 16,101.55 points as compared to 15,812.72 points of the previous week.

Analysts said investor sentiment was upbeat at the market throughout the week on expectations that October 2012 CPI figure will slide further.

The market opened on Tuesday after prolonged Eidul Azha vacations on a negative note as Hurricane Sandy that lashed US East Coast triggered uncertainty in global markets and propelled local investors to offload their holdings. The 100-share index shed 16.79 points or 0.11 percent to close at 15,795.93 points as compared to 15,812.72 points.

On Wednesday the market made another historic high level of 15,910 points as hopes for lower inflation for the month of October and better-than-expected earnings of Pakistan Petroleum Ltd and Hubco triggered across-the-board buying. The 100-share index gained 114.18 points or 0.72 percent to close at 15,910.11 points.

The record-breaking spree continued at the market on Thursday as investors went for buying on hopes that lower inflation figure will force the State Bank of Pakistan to reduce the policy rate. The 100-share index gained 52.26 points or 0.33 percent to close at 15,962.37 points

The market continued its record-breaking streak on the last trading day of the week Friday by crossing the psychological level of 16,000 points. The 100-share index gained 139.18 points or 0.87 percent to close at 16,101.55 points. The weekly turnover went up by 40.79 percent and traded 191.49 million shares compared to previous weeks 136.01 million shares.

“Market expectations were realised on Friday with October 2012 CPI clocking in at 7.66 percent as against 8.79 percent in September 2012, thus raising hopes of another rate cut in the next monetary policy (due in December),” said JS Sec analyst Furqan Ayub. “Investors’ interest was concentrated in the cement and textile sectors with Lucky Cement and Nishat Mills outperforming the market by 1.1 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively.”

Net buying by foreigners this week amounted to $12.6 million, he added.

Analysts said the market is at a historic high level and any untoward development can drag the market into the red zone, analysts said and added that technical correction is, however, due next week as usually when the 100-share index breaches psychological levels consolidation is seen and with this historic high it is evident.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
I'd have to second Riaz here. I'm not an economist but from what I see regularly on streets, I'm quite optimistic about Pakistan's economy.
I'm an agricultural Landlord with plans to pursue Real Estate Development and Construction. Businesses from from small shops to Multi-Million Dollar real-estate projects are everywhere to be seen. Streets of Pakistan are flooded with over a Million Rupees cars. Restaurants, for all classes, are almost packed. There's at least over 8 Sold-out Real Estate Projects worth over a 100 Crores within 50 KM of Karachi Tool Plaza. A Land Lord with merely 100 acres of Agricultural Land is roaming in Vigo.

Now I'm not sure what do these things suggest if not an economic stability considering severe Energy Crisis, poor Law and Order and Terrorism among multiple other issues.

100 Crore (pakistani) projects are dime a dozen in India too. Even my city a midsize town in south India has more than 20 such projects. Okay if it had been a over 5000 crore (Indian) projects I would have given a thought.
 
This is an illusion. The 2008 peak of KSE was 15,000. Five years later it is at 16,000 in 2012. But in those five years, inflation has totaled 90%. So the KSE should have been close to 30,000 today just for LOCAL investors to break even. What this means is that the KSE is down in real terms by about 50% from its peak in 2008. The last five years 2008-2012 have not been very good-- it is all inflation....
 
This Zulfikar project is a good dream. But how will it convert to reality when Pakistan's savings are so low. The SBP keeps issuing warnings every year and the government does not do anything to boost the savings rates. Without savings, where will the resources to "build new cities" come from. China builds new cities year-after-year because they have one of the world's highest savings rates. Pakistan, on the other hand, has one of the world's lowest savings rates. So where will the resources for this new city come from?
 
Not a passive consumer? Do your own research?

Do you mean on the internet via your home computer?

That is not what the graph indicates. The dark bands on the OP's graphs show that local (domestic) consumption of cement has been more or less at the same level for the last 5 years (after 2008).....
 
FII into Pakistan was NEGATIVE for 2011-12. Please look up the Finance Ministry website and check the 2011-12 Economic Survey to check this.
 
I work at the 'city'. I know scores of fund managers and investment analysts. I have not crossed any analyst who is optimistic about Pakistan economy, not even Pakistanis who happens to be investment analysts.
 
FDI in 2007 was 8billions
economic growth rate in 2004-05 was 8.4%


bt this WOT has fcked up everything

otherwise imagine if we would have grown at 8.4% since 2004?
i am sure the economy would had been now close to 300billions and per capita much better

bt better late than never

since oct 2011.economy is indeed getting better..slowly steady bt still nt in reverse direction
 
Bullish my foot. Don't show me surveys and demomgraphics. Show me hard facts, how much investment done in Pak recently by gop and foreign investors. :lol: I bet it is less than 1 billion dolls. Who would invest in such a country.

ask big corporations like Coca Cola, Boeing, Johhnson & Johnson, TetraPak etc.

and they maintain portfolio and permanent presence DESPITE turmoil of the past few years. Under the previous govt. FDi inflows were quite substantial

hopefully these politicos goons who rob and loot our country will soon be out of work come next election

I work at the 'city'. I know scores of fund managers and investment analysts. I have not crossed any analyst who is optimistic about Pakistan economy, not even Pakistanis who happens to be investment analysts.

hedgefunds?

is it a surprise? theyre in it for quick gains
 

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