Indonesia Trade Data (Monthly basis), starting from January 2022
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Indonesia Exports to China - 2023 Data 2024 Forecast 1989-2021 Historical
Indonesia Exports to China was US$53.78 Billion during 2021, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Indonesia Exports to China - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on March of 2023.
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Global thermal coal prices settling into $200/T range after volatile 2022
SINGAPORE, May 25 (Reuters) - Global thermal coal prices are stabilising this year in a range near $200 a tonne that is less than half of 2022's record highs, analysts and industry officials say, with rising supplies providing respite to consumers roiled by last year's volatility.
Analysts expect the benchmark Newcastle coal index to average $175-$212 a tonne this year, a steep premium to the $86 average for the ten years preceding Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but down more than 50% from September's highs at $440.
Reuters Graphics
Last year, punitive Western sanctions on Russia pushed European buyers to pay top dollar for fuel to fire power plants, pushing up global prices. Russia was Europe's biggest supplier of coal and natural gas before the war.
Coal prices in the tighter range expected this year, though, will help utilities and other users better plan fuel purchases, easing pressure on economies battling high inflation. Fuel prices typically account for more than half the total cost of generating electricity.
Alexandre Claude, chief executive of London-based analytics firm DBX Commodities, said he expects lower volatility in 2023 compared with 2022 because trade flows had stabilised after the "energy shock" that followed the invasion of Ukraine.
Argus Consulting expects global coal exports to rise 4.4% this year, with imports set to increase 5%. China is seen ramping up imports by 11%, with Australian exports rising 9.4% after declining for three straight years.
July Ndlovu, chairman of the World Coal Association (WCA) and chief executive of South Africa's Thungela Resources (TGAJ.J), said Europe's "disproportionate" role in deciding coal prices was over.
"Going forward ... what happens with China and India is what would drive the fundamentals for energy, because that's where growth and energy demand is," Ndlovu told Reuters.
Australia's Westpac (WBC.AX) said this month it expects the Newcastle benchmark to average $193 per tonne over the nine months ending December 2023, while Citi (C.N) said in April it expected the index to average $175 over 9-12 months. Australia's chief economist expects Newcastle benchmark prices to average $212 this year.
As of Monday, Newcastle coal was just over $159 a tonne on a free-on-board basis, at the low end of a $159-$179 range it has held during the current quarter and a long way from the $180-$403 band of the first quarter.
"We expect coal prices including the Newcastle benchmark to remain supported mostly due to higher cash (production) costs for the coal miners," said DBX's Claude, explaining why prices likely aren't headed back to pre-invasion, pre-pandemic levels.
DEMAND AND SUPPLY
Top exporters Indonesia and Australia are expected to ramp up shipments to meet higher demand from India and parts of Southeast Asia, making up for small declines in supply from elsewhere including Russia, according to estimates by Australia's chief economist and Argus.The Australian chief economist's office expects supplies from Australia to jump 7.8% and Indonesian exports to rise 2.4%, while imports by Asia rise 2.3% to 852 million tonnes and shipments to Europe fall more than 15%.
Global coal demand and supply Global coal demand and supply
Exports from Russia are expected to be lower, Argus and Australia's estimates show, with the narrowing spread between Russia's discounted coal and other benchmarks reducing the competitiveness of Russian coal.
Steep discounts to benchmark prices helped Russia lure Asian buyers after the Western sanctions prevented sales to Europe, but that advantage is disappearing.
The forecast for an El Nino weather pattern, typically associated with drier conditions, could also reduce rain-related disruptions to supply and support higher coal output from key regions and ease prices back from the highs of the past year.
A plunge in natural gas prices is expected to aid Europe's shift away from coal this year as well and that will have a similar effect.
Any indication of a slower-than-expected economic recovery in China, however, could have a larger impact on prices despite this year's growth in imports and rising domestic coal output.
"Price stability will probably be driven by how the Chinese central government decides in terms of their energy policies," said WCA Chairman Ndlovu.
Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan, with additional reporting by Carman Chew; Editing by Tom Hogue
Global thermal coal prices settling into $200 per tonne range after volatile 2022
Global thermal coal prices are stabilising this year in a range near $200 a tonne that is less than half of 2022's record highs, analysts and industry officials say, with rising supplies providing respite to consumers roiled by last year's volatility.
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Indonesia June trade surplus bigger than expected
July 17, 2023 — 12:28 am EDTWritten by Gayatri Suroyo and Stefanno Sulaiman for Reuters ->
JAKARTA, July 17 (Reuters) - Indonesia booked a surprisingly large trade surplus of $3.46 billion in June, as exports and imports plunged more than expected, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday.
A Reuters poll of economists had expected a surplus of $1.35 billion last month. The country recorded a surplus of around $440 million in May.
Exports slumped 21.18% on a yearly basis to $20.61 billion in June, deeper than the 18.85% fall expected in the poll.
Imports were down 18.35% on a yearly basis to $17.15 billion, compared withthe poll's forecast of 7.75% contraction.
(Reporting by Gayatri Suroyo and Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Martin Petty)
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Global coal demand set to remain at record levels in 2023
News27 July 2023
Continued strong growth in Asian economies offsets declines in Europe and North America, highlighting need for stronger policies and investments to accelerate growth of clean energy
Global coal consumption climbed to a new all-time high in 2022 and will stay near that record level this year as strong growth in Asia for both power generation and industrial applications outpaces declines in the United States and Europe, according to the IEA’s latest market update.
Coal consumption in 2022 rose by 3.3% to 8.3 billion tonnes, setting a new record, according to the IEA’s mid-year Coal Market Update, which was published today. In 2023 and 2024, small declines in coal-fired power generation are likely to be offset by rises in industrial use of coal, the report predicts, although there are wide variations between geographic regions.
China, India and Southeast Asian countries together are expected to account for 3 out of every 4 tonnes of coal consumed worldwide in 2023. In the European Union, growth in coal demand was minimal in 2022 as a temporary spike in coal-fired power generation was almost offset by lower use in industry. European coal use is expected to fall sharply this year as renewables expand, and as nuclear and hydropower partially recover from their recent slumps. In the United States, the move away from coal is also being accentuated by lower natural gas prices.
After three turbulent years marked by the Covid-19 shock in 2020, the strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021 and the turmoil caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, coal markets have so far returned to more predictable and stable patterns in 2023. Global coal demand is estimated to have grown by about 1.5% in the first half of 2023 to a total of about 4.7 billion tonnes, lifted by an increase of 1% in power generation and 2% in non-power industrial uses.
By region, coal demand fell faster than previously expected in the first half of this year in the United States and the European Union – by 24% and 16%, respectively. However, demand from the two largest consumers, China and India, grew by over 5% during the first half, more than offsetting declines elsewhere.
“Coal is the largest single source of carbon emissions from the energy sector, and in Europe and the United States, the growth of clean energy has put coal use into structural decline,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori. “But demand remains stubbornly high in Asia, even as many of those economies have significantly ramped up renewable energy sources. We need greater policy efforts and investments – backed by stronger international cooperation – to drive a massive surge in clean energy and energy efficiency to reduce coal demand in economies where energy needs are growing fast.”
The shift of coal demand to Asia continues. In 2021, China and India already accounted for two-thirds of global consumption, meaning together they used twice as much coal as the rest of the world combined. In 2023, their share will be close to 70%. By contrast, the United States and the European Union – which together accounted for 40% three decades ago and over 35% at the beginning of this century – represent less than 10% today.
The same split is observed on the production side. The three largest coal producers – China, India and Indonesia – all produced record amounts in 2022. In March 2023, both China and India set new monthly records, with China surpassing 400 million tonnes for the second time ever and India surpassing 100 million tonnes for the first time. Also in March, Indonesia exported almost 50 million tonnes, a volume never shipped by any country before. By contrast, the United States, once the world’s largest coal producer, has more than halved production since its peak in 2008.
After the extreme volatility and high prices of last year, coal prices fell in the first half of 2023 to the same levels as those seen in summer 2021, driven by ample supply and lower natural gas prices. Thermal coal returned to being priced below coking coal, and the big premium for Australian coal narrowed following the easing of disruptive La Niña weather that had hampered production. Russian coal has found new outlets after being barred in Europe, but often at considerable discounts.
Cheaper coal has made imports more attractive for some price-sensitive buyers. Chinese imports have almost doubled in the first half of this year, and global coal trade in 2023 is set to grow by more than 7%, outpacing overall demand growth, to approach the record levels seen in 2019. Seaborne coal trade in 2023 may well surpass the record of 1.3 billion tonnes set in 2019.
Global coal demand set to remain at record levels in 2023 - News - IEA
Global coal demand set to remain at record levels in 2023 - News from the International Energy Agency
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Minerals and Coal Contribute Rp 111 Trillion to State Revenue
Rangga PrakosoAugust 9, 2023 | 4:24 pm
Workers unload coal from a barge at Tanjung Priok Port, North Jakarta, on Feb. 3, 2022. (Antara photo/M Risyal Hidayat)
Jakarta. The state revenue generated from mineral and coal mining has surged to Rp 111.65 trillion ($7.3 billion) year-to-date, surpassing the full-year target by an impressive 130.98 percent, according to data released by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
Despite the steady global decline in coal prices since the beginning of the year, coal continues to be a significant contributor to the mining sector. Export prices for coal have maintained their position above $100 per ton.
Indonesia's coal production has reached a total of 369.17 million tons in the first seven months of the year, accounting for 53.16 percent of the projected annual production volume.
In the initial half of the year, the country exported 249 million tons of coal, while domestic sales stood at 97.17 million tons.
The government determines the benchmark price for coal by amalgamating the realized prices from the previous month and the two months before that, with a ratio of 70:30, according to Agung Pribadi, the spokesman for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
The benchmark coal price for August is still in the process of being formulated, he added.
For the month of July, the benchmark coal price varied based on the gross calorific value (GCV) of the materials. It was set at $191.6 per ton for coal with a GCV of 6,322 kcal per kilogram, $109.27 per ton for coal with a GCV of 5,200 kcal per kilogram, and $75.20 per ton for coal with a GCV of 4,200 kcal per kilogram.
Minerals and Coal Contribute Rp 111 Trillion to State Revenue
Indonesia's coal production has reached a total of 369.17 million tons in the first seven months of the year.
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Indonesia’s July trade surplus narrows more than expected
A worker walks on stacks of containers at the Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta, Indonesia, Jan 22, 2021. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/File photo
12:48 PM August 15, 2023
JAKARTA – Indonesia’s trade surplus shrank more than expected in July to $1.31 billion, as imports contracted less than predicted, data from the statistics bureau showed on Tuesday.
A Reuters poll of economists had expected a July surplus of $2.53 billion. Trade surplus in the previous month was $3.46 billion.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy booked its biggest ever trade surplus last year as exports jumped, driven by a global commodity boom.
The surplus has narrowed this year as exports declined amid falling commodity prices.
Shipments from Southeast Asia’s largest economy plunged 18.03 percent on a yearly basis in July to $20.88 billion, roughly in line with the poll’s prediction of an 18.3 percent drop, as prices of its top commodities like coal and palm oil fell.
Imports dropped 8.32 percent on a yearly basis to $19.57 billion, compared with the 15.5 percent fall predicted by economists in the poll.
Indonesia’s July trade surplus narrows more than expected
JAKARTA - Indonesia's trade surplus shrank more than expected in July to $1.31 billion, as imports contracted less than predicted, data from the statistics bureau showed on Tuesday. A
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