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Indonesia Trade Data (Monthly basis), starting from January 2022

Indonesia should just come and take over running Pakistan. They seem to be doing something right. Wouldn’t accept the same offer from India though. Too much of a cultural difference.
 
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Indonesia books nearly $5 billion Sept trade surplus, above forecast​

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FILE PHOTO: A tugboat sails past a container ship in Tanjung Priok Port, Jakarta, Indonesia April 16, 2018. REUTERS/Darren Whiteside


17 Oct 2022 12:42PM
(Updated: 17 Oct 2022 01:57PM)

JAKARTA : Indonesia's September trade surplus beat forecasts at $4.99 billion, as exports and imports grew at a slower than expected pace, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday.

A Reuters poll had expected a $4.84 billion surplus in September, compared with a $5.76 billion surplus in the previous month.

Southeast Asia's largest economy has been enjoying an export boom due to high commodity prices globally.

In the first nine months of 2022, the resource-rich country reported a $39.87 billion surplus, already bigger than its full-year record surplus of $39.73 billion in 2006.

However, some commodity prices have started to moderate.

Exports in September were up 20.28 per cent on a yearly basis to $24.80 billion, compared with a 27.91 per cent rise predicted by analysts in a Reuters poll.

There was a $1.4 billion month-to-month drop in the value of shipments of palm oil products, to $2.4 billion, reflecting falling prices as well as shipment volumes.

Cushioning this was shipments of coal, Indonesia's top commodity, which remained high at $4.2 billion.

Coal prices stayed near an all time high last month, while exports to China rose 41.2 per cent on a monthly basis to $949.08 million - which analysts said was related to demand ahead of the Communist Party Congress.

There was also a significant increase in coal shipments to European Union countries.

Indonesia's imports increased 22.02 per cent in September to $19.81 billion, compared with the poll's 31.48 per cent growth expectation.

Irman Faiz, an economist with Bank Danamon in Jakarta, said the surplus reaffirmed that the rupiah's fundamentals were strong, even as the currency continued to depreciate due to capital outflows linked to U.S. monetary tightening.

The rupiah extended losses after the trade data, hitting a new lowest level since April 2020. It was trading at 15,480 a dollar at 0525 GMT.

"We believe that monetary policymakers need to pick up the pace of tightening, in order to seize the opportunity from favorable IDR fundamentals," Faiz said.

"We expect BI (Bank Indonesia) to deliver another 50 bps hike in this week meeting," he said, expecting that to be followed by 150 bps more hikes until the second quarter of 2023.


 
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Thermal coal prices retreat as winter supply fears ease​

in Commodity News,Dry Bulk Market 12/10/2022

In Asia, major importers are showing mixed trends, with wealthier countries still willing to pay higher prices, but less developed ones importing less of the polluting fuel.

China’s imports of thermal coal from the seaborne market were 22.4 million tonnes in September, according to Kpler, with Indonesia providing the lion’s share at 19.32 million.

China’s thermal coal imports were 21.04 million in September last year.


Japan, the third-biggest coal importer, saw thermal coal arrivals of 10.41 million tonnes in September, roughly in line with the 10.82 million from the same month in 2021.

In contrast to the steady picture presented by China and Japan, India’s thermal coal imports in September were 12.1 million tonnes, which were the weakest since April, although they above last September’s 8.68 million.

Source: Reuters (Editing by Robert Birsel)

 
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October 24, 20222:20 PM GMT+7Last Updated an hour ago

Indonesia exports could hit $300 bln by 2024, spurred by resource 'downstreaming'​

By Fransiska Nangoy
and Gayatri Suroyo

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Indonesia's Coordinating Minister of Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan, talks during an interview at his office in Jakarta, Indonesia, October 24, 2022. REUTERS/Zahra Matarani

  • Exponential growth likely if 'downstreaming' succeeds
  • Luhut: Coal, palm oil prices should stay high in 2023
  • Indonesia GDP could reach $3.5 trln by 2030 - minister
  • says nickel metals exports to hit $30 bln in 2022

JAKARTA, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Indonesia's exports could hit a record $280 billion this year, with nickel-based steel shipments rising sharply after the country banned nickel ore exports, while shipments of other commodities got a boost from high prices, a senior minister said on Monday.

Exports could rise further to top $300 billion by 2024 as the government prepares to regulate exports of other commodities, such as copper, bauxite and tin, to encourage investment in local downstream industries, Coordinating Minister of Maritime and Investment Affairs, Luhut Pandjaitan, said in an interview.

Southeast Asia's largest economy has been enjoying an export boom for more than a year due to rising commodity prices, which has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

Indonesia is the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal, palm oil, refined tin and a major seller of nickel-based steel, copper, rubber and other resources.

The government banned exports of nickel ore in 2020 in a move that has attracted investment in processing facilities - a strategy officials refer to as "resource downstreaming".

Luhut said the government was working on a downstreaming plan to develop an industry that would process bauxite, copper, tin and, later on, palm oil, into higher value products, replicating the success of the nickel export ban.

"Our exports last year was $232 billion. This year maybe $280 billion. Maybe by 2024, I think we can reach $300 billion or more," Luhut told Reuters.

"If this (downstreaming) works, by 2024, our economic growth will be exponential," he said, adding that Indonesia's gross domestic product could reach $3.5 trillion by 2030, almost tripling from the current $1.19 trillion in 2021.

Shipments of nickel metals will rise to nearly $30 billion this year, compared with $21 billion in 2021 and about $1.4 billion in 2015, he said.

His rosy outlook has taken into account global uncertainties, including the potential drop in prices of some commodities next year, Luhut said, though he added coal and palm oil prices are expected to hold up in 2023.

He also expected Indonesia to be able to produce electric vehicle batteries by 2024.

However, Luhut declined to detail Indonesia's potential policy to regulate other commodity shipments, saying authorities were still considering whether to use an outright ban or tax instruments to deter exports.

President Joko Widodo last week said the government was still making calculations about a possible tin export ban and authorities were committed to steering the mining industry towards more domestic processing.

The European Union has complained to the World Trade Organization about Indonesia's nickel ore export ban and a dispute panel is due to announce a report this quarter. The president last month said Indonesia would likely lose in the dispute.

 
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AlhamduliLLAH

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RI Records Trade Surplus for 30 Consecutive Months, BPS: As of October It Penetrated USD 5.67 Billion​


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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that Indonesia's trade balance recorded a surplus. As of October 2022, the trade surplusreached US$ 5.67 billion with a breakdown of the export value of US$ 24.81 billion and imports of US$ 19.14 billion.

Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics of BPS Setianto explained that the surplus in goods trade occurred for 30 consecutive months. "Since May 2020," he said in a virtual press conference, in Jakarta, Tuesday, November 15, 2022. The largest surplus recorded by Indonesia is with three countries, namely India, the United States, and China.

With India, Setianto said, Indonesia's trade surplus reached US$ 1.69 billion. The main commodities contributing to the surplus are mineral fuels, vegetable fats and oils, as well as iron and steel.

Meanwhile, with the United States, Indonesia scored a surplus of US$ 1.28 billion. The main commodities contributing to the surplus are electrical machinery and equipment and their parts, vegetable animal fats and oils, and footwear.

Next, indonesia's trade surplus with China is worth US$ 1.04 billion. The main commodities contributing to the surplus are mineral fuels, iron and steel, as well as vegetable animal fats and oils.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's trade balance is in deficit with three main countries, namely Australia, Brazil, and South Korea.

In general, Indonesia's goods trade balance cumulatively in January-October 2022 experienced a surplus of US$ 45.52 billion. This figure jumped 47.32 percent over the same period in the previous year.

"So the total surplus in the January-October 2022 period is already greater than the total trade balance surplus throughout 2021, which is US$ 35.42 billion," Setianto said.

 
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Indonesia posts $5.7bn trade surplus in October, beating forecasts

Reuters Published about 7 hours ago

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JAKARTA: Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to $5.67 billion in October from $4.99 billion in September, as imports were less than expected, statistics bureau data showed on Tuesday.

A Reuters poll of economists had forecast a reduced surplus of $4.5 billion for October. The resource rich Southeast Asian economy has benefited from high prices of its main commodity exports, such as palm oil, coal and nickel, for more than a year.

Economists have warned that once commodity prices moderate and the global economy slows, Indonesia’s export earnings would tail off and its trade balance could come under pressure from sustained domestic demand driving up imports.

In October, however, the strong rise in imports was still less than expected. Data showed October imports rose 17.44% from a year ago to $19.14 billion, below a forecast rise of 23.62%.

On a monthly basis, imports shrank by 3.4%, with purchases of machinery, fuel, and gold driving the decline.

Meanwhile, exports in October rose 12.3% from a year ago to $24.81 billion, which was the weakest year-on-year increase since February 2021, and below the poll forecast for 13.85% growth.

Indonesia’s strong trade performance this year has helped limit the rupiah’s depreciation against the strong US dollar.

Indonesia books nearly $5bn Sept trade surplus, above forecast

The October trade data would be among a host of economic indicators Bank Indonesia is set to examine at a monetary policy review this week.

The central bank is expected to deliver a third consecutive 50 basis point interest rate hike on Thursday, a separate Reuters poll showed.

 
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Indonesia books bigger-than-expected Nov trade surplus of $5.2 bln​

Reuters

JAKARTA, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Indonesia posted a larger-than-expected trade surplus last month, as imports unexpectedly contracted on a yearly basis while exports slowed, official data showed on Thursday.

Reporting by Gayatri Suroyo and Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor


Of course import is contracted since oil price is lower since November. Rupiah higher depreciation since October will also likely effect consumption goods import since cheaper domestic goods will likely substitute them.

Capital Goods is the only one that is increasing at 7.3 % showing Indonesia industry is still in expansive mode.

Consumption goods is slowing at 16.2 %

 
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AlhamduliLLAH until November Indonesia has posted 50.7 billion USD trade surplus
 
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Non-Oil and Gas Exports Accounted for 95.29% of Total Exports in November 2022​

47 minutes ago

KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that non-mineral and gas (oil and gas) exports accounted for the most in total exports in November 2022. Its value reached US$ 22.57 billion or 95.29% of total exports.

"We see that non-oil and gas exports account for 95.29% of the total exports in November 2022," said BPS Deputy for Production Statistics M. Habibullah in a press conference, Thursday (15/12).

The driving commodities consist of, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries accounted for 0.42%, mining and others 5.89%, and processing industries 16.68%.

Also read: BPS records Indonesia's trade balance surplus of US$ 5.16 billion in November 2022

Even so, the value of non-oil and gas exports decreased in the reporting period compared to the previous month. Down 1.94% from US$ 23.44 billion to US$ 22.99 billion.

Exports of processing industry products fell 2.11% which was contributed by a decrease in palm oil exports. Exports of agricultural, forestry and fishery products fell 3.40% contributed by a decrease in exports of cultivated pearls.

Likewise, exports of mining and other products decreased by 1.34% due to the decline in coal exports.

Also Read: BPS: Until November 2022, Indonesia Imports 326.25 Thousand Tons of Rice

 
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November 2022 data

Jakarta (ANTARA) - Indonesia's trade balance recorded a surplus of US$5.16 billion in November 2022, with the value of exports reaching US$24.12 billion and imports US$18.96 billion, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported on Thursday.

"The trade balance surplus in November 2022 is the 31st consecutive month surplus that Indonesia has achieved since May 2020," deputy for production statistics at BPS, M. Habibullah, noted here on Thursday.

This achievement was supported by a surplus in the balance of non-oil and gas commodities of US$6.83 billion, he said.

Oil and Gas trade shows deficit

The oil and gas trade balance recorded a deficit of US$1.67 billion, with the main contributors to the deficit being crude oil and oil products.

Biggest Trade surplus

The three countries with the largest trade surplus with Indonesia were the United States (with a surplus of US$1.31 billion), India (US$1.17 billion), and the Philippines (US$1.02 billion).

The largest contributors to the surplus in trade with the United States were electrical machinery and equipment and their parts, clothing and accessories (knitted), and clothing and accessories (non-knitted).

Larges Trade deficit

In the meantime, Indonesia's trade experienced the largest deficit with three countries—Australia (with a deficit of US$519 million), Thailand (US$321 million), and Brazil (US$249 million).

 
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Indonesia import history chart

Consumer goods imports is less than 10 percent of Indonesian total imports (2020), and since the figure is constant at least from 2010, so when the economy pick up the contribution is even smaller as we can see on the chart below. 2020 was the time the industries suffered from lock down measure (resulting in decrease in raw material/supporting goods/ capital goods) but the consumer good imports were at relatively constant rate.


Blue Line
is Raw Material/Supporting Goods (which is essential for manufacturing industry)

Black Line is capital Goods which is also essential for manufacturing

Red Line is consumer goods

In Million USD

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10 biggest Indonesia exports in June 2021

1. Animal/vegetable fats and oils with a value of US$ 1.8 billion
2. Iron and steel with a value of US$ 1.9 billion
3. Machinery and electrical equipment US$1 billion
4. Vehicles and parts thereof US$ 734.6 million
5. Various chemical products US$ 498.7 million
6. Footwear US$491 million
7. Metals starting, jewelry/gems US$ 519 million
8. Metal ore, slag and ash US$ 574.6 million
9. Paper, cardboard and articles thereof US$ 337.3 million
10. Pulp from wood US$ 248.8 million.

 
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Indonesia Sets $7.6b Fishery Export Target for 2023​

BY :HERMAN
DECEMBER 27, 2022

Jakarta. Indonesia has set a goal to book $7.6 billion in the fishery and marine exports next year, the government announced on Monday.

The country’s fishery and marine export from Jan. to Nov. 2022 amounted to $5.71 billion. The Fisheries Ministry expects the figures would total $6.2 billion by the year-end.

The ministry reported that the US has imported $2.15 billion worth of Indonesian fish products in the first eleven months of 2022. Followed by China ($1.02 billion), Japan ($678 million), ASEAN ($651 million), and European Union ($357.12 million).

Indonesia exported $1.33 billion worth of shrimp to the US this year.

According to Fisheries Minister Sakti Wahyu Trenggono, the global demand for shrimp stands at $30 billion. With such huge demand, Indonesia aims to produce 2 million tons of shrimp by 2024. To this end, the country plans to develop 1,000 hectares of modern shrimp-farming ponds.

“We are working towards that by preparing the land and all that. Hopefully, we can finish this 1,000-hectare modern shrimp-farming pond by 2024,” Trenggono said on Monday.

Read More:

Trenggono also named tuna, cuttlefish, blue swimmer crabs, and octopuses as some of Indonesia’s leading wild-caught fish commodities. While the leading aquaculture commodities are shrimp, crabs, and seaweed. The minister also gave some updates on the government’s plans to have a network of villages dedicated to aquaculture.

“We already have a number of aquaculture villages in place for shark catfish and seaweed. Going forward, we would like to build a modern aquaculture area for shrimp,” Trenggono said.

As of the third quarter of 2022, Indonesia’s fishery production volume reached 18.45 million tons. Of these, 5.97 million are wild-caught fish and 5.57 million tons from aquaculture. The remaining 6.9 million tons are seaweed.

The Fisheries Ministry also announced it had so far posted Rp 1.79 trillion in nontax revenue this year, the highest since its founding in 1999. They primarily come from natural resources and capture fisheries, which contributed Rp 1.1 trillion in non-tax revenue. Non-natural resources accounted for Rp 611.8 billion of the collected non-tax revenue, while public service agencies made up the remaining Rp 44.3 billion.

 
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Drier season means possibly more coal production in 2023

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Indonesia weather agency predicts dry 2023, warns of forest fire risks​

Reuters

JAKARTA, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Indonesia will face its driest weather since 2019 next year, the country's weather agency forecast on Thursday, citing the weakening of the La Nina pattern.

Reporting by Ananda Teresia; Additional reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe; Editing by Gayatri Suroyo and Tomasz Janowski


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Under normal condition Indonesia can potentially produce more coal

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08/12/2022 10:00 Pm gmt


10 Main Destination Countries for Indonesian Coal Exports (Jan-Sep 2022)

In USD

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Oleochemical Industry has Positive Trend, Apolin Estimates Export Value to Reach US$ 5.96 Billion​

7 hours ago
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KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. The development of the oleochemical industry shows positive developments in the past three years. This is illustrated in the data on the volume and export value of oleochemical products released by the Indonesian Oleochemical Manufacturers Association (Apolin)

Apolin Chairman Rapolo Hutabarat said, referring to the export performance of oleochemical products over the past three years, it shows that the development of the oleochemical industry has grown positively.

"The supporting factor is that all industrial sectors that use oleochemicals are increasing in demand, including the sanitation, cosmetics, pharmaceutical, tourism, construction (steel) and transportation (tire) industries," said Rapolo in his statement, Thursday (29/12).

Also Read: Target Exports to Increase by 11.9%, Oleochemical Industry Faces Gas Price Constraints

From Apolin's data, the export volume of lndonesian oleochemicals has continued to grow in these three years. In 2019, the export volume of oleochemical products amounted to 3.18 million tons and further increased to 3.87 million tons in 2020.

Entering 2021, export volume increased to 4.19 million tons and it is estimated that in 2022 it will be 4.16 million tons.

Along with the increase in export volume, it affects the increase in value. Rapolo explained that the export value of oleochemical products this year is estimated to reach US$ 5.96 billion.

There is an increase from 2021 which was US$ 4.41 billion and in 2020 of US$ 2.03 billion.

Rapolo explained that the growth of the oleochemical industry was thanks to the support of the Indonesian government through a low-cost gas policy of US$ 6 / MMBTU. There is also support from tax holiday and tax allowance policies.

Also Read: GIMNI asks for certainty on revision of palm oil export levy

However, business actors hope for support from the national logistics system because until now there has been no clarity from the regulatory aspect.

"Business actors are still waiting for the National Logistics System Law, which has not been initiated by the government or legislature as their initiative right," said Rapolo.

Rapolo explained that nationally, the processing capacity of the lndonesian oleochemical industry throughout 2022 is around 60%-65% and this needs to be increased again.

Until the end of 2022, there is no plan to increase capacity. With the current capacity is already large enough to supply oleochemical products to different destination countries used by various types of industries.

One of the problems in increasing capacity is the high interest rate of banks in Indonesia so that the source of financing for new investments and for the expansion of the oleochemical industry in Indonesia is higher than other producing countries such as China, Malaysia and the European Union.

"To add a variety of new products, the government needs to increase research funds at universities, BRIN so that research to produce new products and advanced downstream products can be realized immediately," he explained.

The projection of the oleochemical industry in 2023 is predicted to reach 4.8 million - 5.1 million tons with an estimated export value of around US $ 6.2 billion - US $ 6.4 billion.

Meanwhile, domestic needs range from 1.8 million - 2.2 million tons for the coming 2023.

"The government and the oleochemical industry/associations of lndonesia it is time to remap the further downstream direction of the current basic oleochemicals. The consideration is so that the added value and variety of downstream products continued oleochemicals are still held by the Indonesian oleochemical industry," concluded Rapolo.

 
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