With closer relationship with Airbus, I expect after ordering 2 A 400 M we would likely put an order to MRTT next year.
With foreign loan backed program is just 600 million USD for next year budget while half of it is expected to be used for buying 8 CN 235 and 10 N 219, so possibly the remaining 300 million USD may be used to buy 1 new MRTT from Airbus.
Refurbished and upgradation of current F 16 Block 52 into V variant (23 planes) may be preferred if the refurbished and upgradation is done in Indonesia like Falcon Star program. I see the present of Lockheed Martin official in our Aerospace Industry seminar shows this option may be chosen for 2024 fiscal year. We need to extend the life of the planes into another 10 years as stop gap measure because it is very likely that we only have 12 Rafales for our previous F 5 squadron.
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12 Rafales + 23 F 16 C/D V variant + 10 F 16 Block 52 + 16 Sukhoi
And attack squadrons of 20 T 50 Golden Eagle + 30 Hawk 100/200 + 16 Supertucano
And UAV squadron of 6 CH 4 drones
With all of them gets adequate amount of ammunitions (BVR+WVR+ missile + smart bomb)
Is enough in my opinion while waiting for KF21/IFX and MALE Elang Hitam UCAV development program to be completed (certified) around 2026 inshaAllah.
KF21 than should first replace our 30 Hawk 100/200 within 2029-34 as I hope we will start producing KF21/IFX from block 2 variant.
Then start replacing our 10 F 16 A/B MLU in 2035 with KF21 block 3 variants.
2040
So starting in 2040, we should have fighter squadrons comprising only with 2 types of planes, Rafale (12 planes) and KF 21/IFX (74 planes). I expect we will have 12 Rafale (upgraded continously), 32 KF21/IFX block 2 variants, and 42 KF21/IFX block 3 variants.
While I hope we can develop our own STEALTH wingman drone for KF21 / IFX planes that if it is only for block 3 variants then we need around 126 Stealth wingman drones.
MALE UCAV squadrons should have around 64 Elang Hitam MALE UCAV.
That number should be able to reach if our economy keeps growing at 5.5-6.5 percent for the next 2 decades inshaAllah. Expected nominal GDP of 3 trillion USD in 2034 inshaAllah.