Indonesia Defence Forum

[Indos]

Indonesian Marine, Kopaska troops

 

[Indos]

THE WHITE HOUSE
The White House

BRIEFING ROOM

Readout of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Call with Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan​

AUGUST 22, 2022•STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke over the phone today with Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan of Indonesia. They discussed expanding economic cooperation and fostering broad-based prosperity, including through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. The two also discussed efforts underway to make Indonesia’s G20 host year successful, as well as efforts to tackle the climate crisis, address global food insecurity, and lower energy prices.

Readout of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Call with Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan - The White House

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke over the phone today with Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan of

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[Indos]

So the main problem is once again likely a lack of maintenance budget ? The same thing as the cause of our previous submarine incident that killed our Navy personnel ?

Refurbished and modernization program of Hawk 100 and 200 become the priority now and of course Defense Ministry should increase maintenance and operational budget so that the old tire can be replaced by the new one before any incident happen again that could cost our pilots lifes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1562381189603794945

 

[Indos]

About 2 weeks before our Independence Day, we show gratitude to Allah SWT that has given His bless and help us in taking our nation back from Dutch and Japan.

President Palace, Jakarta. 1 August 2022

 

[Indos]

You can use English translation

 

[Indos]

 

[Indos]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564701488554852354

---------------------------


In essence, I agree on Jane Defense prediction. Next President will likely not Prabowo if we see the result and trend of surveys about our President candidate. This factor I believe is also inside Jane Defense projection calculation. Jokowi will likely focus on the economy as usual until his term is over in November 2024 then next President will likely Ganjar Pranowo with Vice President will likely Erick Thohir.

Both leaders will likely continue Jokowi economic grand plan and will likely keep defense budget below 1 % of GDP until 2027 with the focus on infrastructure, education, and industry related programs. I hope Sri Mulyani is still our Finance Minister at least until 2029, her present is important to keep market confident on the country that later is useful to boost our FDI.

If managed properly, the period of 2025-2029 can be a possible FDI boom for Indonesia if we can achieve successful transfer of power in 2024 with the help of God. That result can increase our country profile very high economically and geopolitically. It is of course in the assumption that Indonesia keeps becoming one of the successful countries in term of economic stability and development in years to come.


My take on 2024-2030 defense budget

I predict defense budget to pick up profoundly after 2028 as I would say the combination of higher GDP figure ( predicted to be 2 trillion USD in 2030) and the possible significant increase of sophistication of our local defense industry starting in 2028 would provide more economic point of view backing argument to increase defense spending in front of our future economic team. Our new economists are well known with their prudent economic policy and budget spending characteristic after we experienced Asian Financial crisis during 1997-1998 period.

Contrary to Jane Defense projection for 2024-2027 period, I do think there is still positive growth on our next defense spending on that period, but the growth will not likely to be significant, most likely the increase is concentrated to build military infrastructure on our new capital and increase our soldiers number as those plans have already been announced by our Armed Force General, Andika Perkasa.

Oil subsidy factor

If oil subsidy is lifted in significant proportion as we are expecting the price hike is to be announced this afternoon or tonight, there will be possible huge available fund for government next year budget that later can be possibly used for our defense spending. It is of course despite I doubt there is significant increase of 2024 defense budget, while for 2023 budget, it has already been set and approved by parliament in mid August this year.

The additional fund from decreasing oil subsidy, IMO, will likely be prioritized to keep Indonesia budget deficit below 3 percent in 2023 and 2024 with sufficient gov spending that is supportive for achieving minimum 5.5 % economic growth. If it is successfully executed, it will be a huge success for Jokowi administration amid pressing economic condition the world is currently suffering.

In term of the possibility to use the more healthy gov budget with less oil subsidy in it for increasing defense spending significantly, IMO, it is only viable in later administration, not in current administration. It will be a politically suicide move to increase 2024 defense budget significantly for buying imported defense equipment after we raise oil price, that is also not a good policy to take economically considering current global economic situation.

 

[182]

New tanker KRI BALONGAN 908
ready to launch from PT. BATAMEC Shipyard - Batam

 

[Indos]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564701488554852354

---------------------------


In essence, I agree on Jane Defense prediction. Next President will likely not Prabowo if we see the result and trend of surveys about our President candidate. This factor I believe is also inside Jane Defense projection calculation. Jokowi will likely focus on the economy as usual until his term is over in November 2024 then next President will likely Ganjar Pranowo with Vice President will likely Erick Thohir.

Both leaders will likely continue Jokowi economic grand plan and will likely keep defense budget below 1 % of GDP until 2027 with the focus on infrastructure, education, and industry related programs. I hope Sri Mulyani is still our Finance Minister at least until 2029, her present is important to keep market confident on the country that later is useful to boost our FDI.

If managed properly, the period of 2025-2029 can be a possible FDI boom for Indonesia if we can achieve successful transfer of power in 2024 with the help of God. That result can increase our country profile very high economically and geopolitically. It is of course in the assumption that Indonesia keeps becoming one of the successful countries in term of economic stability and development in years to come.


My take on 2024-2030 defense budget

I predict defense budget to pick up profoundly after 2028 as I would say the combination of higher GDP figure ( predicted to be 2 trillion USD in 2030) and the possible significant increase of sophistication of our local defense industry starting in 2028 would provide more economic point of view backing argument to increase defense spending in front of our future economic team. Our new economists are well known with their prudent economic policy and budget spending characteristic after we experienced Asian Financial crisis during 1997-1998 period.

Contrary to Jane Defense projection for 2024-2027 period, I do think there is still positive growth on our next defense spending on that period, but the growth will not likely to be significant, most likely the increase is concentrated to build military infrastructure on our new capital and increase our soldiers number as those plans have already been announced by our Armed Force General, Andika Perkasa.

Oil subsidy factor

If oil subsidy is lifted in significant proportion as we are expecting the price hike is to be announced this afternoon or tonight, there will be possible huge available fund for government next year budget that later can be possibly used for our defense spending. It is of course despite I doubt there is significant increase of 2024 defense budget, while for 2023 budget, it has already been set and approved by parliament in mid August this year.

The additional fund from decreasing oil subsidy, IMO, will likely be prioritized to keep Indonesia budget deficit below 3 percent in 2023 and 2024 with sufficient gov spending that is supportive for achieving minimum 5.5 % economic growth. If it is successfully executed, it will be a huge success for Jokowi administration amid pressing economic condition the world is currently suffering.

In term of the possibility to use the more healthy gov budget with less oil subsidy in it for increasing defense spending significantly, IMO, it is only viable in later administration, not in current administration. It will be a politically suicide move to increase 2024 defense budget significantly for buying imported defense equipment after we raise oil price, that is also not a good policy to take economically considering current global economic situation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1565062114733178880

I dont see it as negative thing at all, better wait our local defense industry to manufacture KF 21, Elang Hitam MALE UCAV, submarine, frigate, cruise missile, more medium tanks (production facility will start being completed after 2023-PMN 2023), local made radar (production facility will start being completed after 2023-PMN 2023), etc inshaAllah.

Elang Hitam MALE UCAV prototype seen in Indonesian Aerospace production Hangar

 

[Indos]

Prabowo & Sandiaga Uno Must Step Down from Minister if want to become President Candidate for 2024 Election​

Prabowo Subianto and Sandiaga Uno are required to submit a letter of resignation no later than on the day of registration of the presidential candidates if they are serious about the intention of the 2024 presidential election. Photo: Doc. Special


CNN New Zealand
Wednesday, 31 Aug 2022 11:43 WIB

Jakarta, CNN Indonesia --
Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and Tourism and Creative Economy Minister (Menprekraf) Sandiaga Uno must step down from President Joko Widodo's cabinet if they want to run in the 2024 Presidential Election.

This provision is contained in article 170 paragraph (1) of Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections (Election Law).


"State officials nominated by Political Parties participating in elections or combinations of political parties as presidential candidates or vice presidential candidates must resign from their positions, except for the President, Vice President, Leaders and members of the MPR, Leaders and members of the DPR, Leaders and members of the DPD, governors, deputy governors, regents, deputy regents, mayors, and deputy mayors," the article reads.

Sandiaga is required to submit a letter of resignation no later than the day of registration of the presidential decree. The resignation letter was irrevocable. After that, the resignation letter was submitted by the proposing political party to the General Election Commission (KPU). The resignation letter became a condition of registration.

Different rules are applied to governors or regional heads who want to be president. They do not need to resign, but must ask Jokowi for permission.

"A person who is serving as governor, deputy governor, regent, deputy regent, mayor and deputy mayor to be nominated by a Political Party or a Combination of Political Parties of an Election Participant as a presidential candidate or Vice Presidential candidate must ask the President for permission," reads article 171 paragraph (1) of the Election Law.

Jokowi has 15 days to respond to the request of the regional head of the president. If Jokowi does not respond to the letter by the deadline, the request is considered granted.

Prabowo & Sandiaga Uno Harus Mundur dari Menteri Jika Maju Capres 2024

Prabowo Subianto dan Sandiaga Uno wajib menyampaikan surat pengunduran diri selambatnya pada hari pendaftaran capres-cawapres jika serius berniat capres 2024.

www.cnnindonesia.com

 

[Indos]

10 N219 is reported to be bought by Indonesian Defense Ministry using foreign loan scheme. This is I think is related to one European financing company that has made agreement with Indonesian Aerospace to finance Indonesian Aerospace products.

The foreign loan approval for 2023 defense ministry budget is just 600 million USD. Around 60 million USD will be absorbed by the 10 N219 order if Defense Ministry really execute the plan.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1300232147489736

------------------------------------------

At 46 Years Old, PTDI Targets Commercialization of the N219 Aircraft

PT Dirgantara Indonesia (DI) will be 46 years old on August 27, 2022. (KOMPAS.COM/PUTRA PRIMA PERDANA)


Kompas.com - 08/28/2022, 07:23 WIB


Bandung Contributing Writer, Putra Prima Perdana | Editor Khairina BANDUNG,


KOMPAS.com- PT Dirgantara Indonesia (DI) turns 46 years old on August 27, 2022. PT DI President Director, Gita Amperiawan said, at 46 years old, his party is targeting to increase the commercialization of the current N219 aircraft. become PTDI's flagship product.

"Our first target is to produce N219 and N219 must be commercialized," said Gita when met after opening the commemoration of PT DI's 46th Anniversary in the parking area of PT DI's PKSN Building, Jalan Pajajaran, Bandung City, Saturday (27/8/2022) .

Gita added that the current production of N219 is prioritized for domestic needs. One of the agencies that have placed an order is the Ministry of Defense (Kemhan) to add the main weapon system (Alutsista) to the TNI. "The Ministry of Defense through the foreign loan program has ordered 10 units," he said.

In addition, Gita said, the N219, which is designed to connect inter-island connectivity, outer islands, and remote areas that are difficult to reach, can also be owned by local governments. "From the Ministry of Home Affairs, we are being directed so that the N219 can be owned by the Provincial Government so that the market is wider," he said.

Although it still prioritizes domestic needs, the N219 which has the advantage of being able to land on a simple and unpaved and short runway is also in demand by several countries.

"With South Africa, not only buying, but also up to TOT. Turkey also wants to develop by joining production for the amphibious (N219) variant," he said.

Not only the N219, other aircraft produced by PT DI are also being promoted for commercialization. "Not only N219, there is also existing CN235 and we can market N212 so that its output increases production capacity," he said.

Injak Usia 46 Tahun, PTDI Targetkan Komersialisasi Pesawat N219

N219 dirancang untuk menghubungkan konektivitas antarpulau, pulau terluar, dan daerah-daerah terpencil yang sulit dijangkau.

bandung.kompas.com

 

[Indos]

Jokowi visited Papua province

 

[Indos]

 

[Indos]

So now Prabowo gets pragmatic and seems finally let go his ambition to acquire both Rafale and F 15 EX. This new development from his ministry does make sense, focusing next MRCA acquisition into the next 10-12 Rafale, so in the end the Rafale acquisition is mean to fill previous F 5 squadron with new fighter planes of 16-18 plane, some thing that has been understood as the most pressing need for Air Force currently.

MRCA acquisition on the blue book is only 1.2 billion USD though until Jokowi administration ended, so I believe both Planning Minister and Finance Minister will only have 2 options which are refusing to insert the program into green book or executing the acquisition program of just 1.2 billion USD.

Unlikely to absorb next year foreign loan for defense ministry as next year foreign loan approval is just 600 million USD and around half of it (300 million USD) will likely be absorbed by the order of 10 N 219 and 8 CN 235 with both are for transport version. As reported, the plan to order 10 N 219 and 8 CN 235 will use foreign loan while another 2 CN 235 transport (800 billion Rupiah) will use domestic loan.

So I expect it will be just 1.2 billion USD foreign loan intended for another 6 Rafales if both Planning Minister and Finance Minister is agree. Getting just 12 planes seems normal for Indonesian context as previous F 5 squadron also has the same amount of planes. I think Planning Minister think the same like me, better focus on KF21 program for fulfilling the rest of Air Force needs, it will be more efficient and effective to wait for KF 21 program development completion rather than rushing to buy foreign fighter at this Jokowi last term. Concentrating for KF21 program will also help our local defense industry to thrive.

I expect if indeed it is approved for 1.2 billion USD MRCA program, I think the order can only happen in 2024. This year there is no MRCA acquisition program in green book and government only approve another 2 billion USD foreign loan backed acquisition program for defense ministry this year based on Alman Helvast previous statement and also reported by Jane Defense. So far, as we have already reached September, only less than 4 months left until 2022 fiscal period is over, there is no other foreign loan backed defense acquisition getting real contract beside those 6 Rafale in February for 1.1 billion USD ( not even effective yet ) and GCI radar ( Around 750 million USD) .

Submarine acquisition program for around 2.7 billion USD is reported by Alman Helvast has already been approved by Planning Ministry this year and just waiting for approval and financing from Finance Ministry. This program will likely to go ahead as soon as PT PAL complete their whole submarine production facility.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1565789658558058496

 

[Indos]

Swallow analyst made by the writer, unlikely to happen. Even if PDI-P denies Ganjar Pranowo as their President candidate, there are strong parties like Nasdem that will put him as President candidate. Backing a strong President candidates that are proven to be popular in surveys also give political parties huge boost to win parliament election which means more seats for them in parliament.

It is already in their own interest to do that. PDI-P, Gerindra and PKB, and Golkar may prefer Puan Maharani, Prabowo, and Airlangga Hartanto as their President candidates, but we still have PPP, PAN, NASDEM, PKS, and Democrat parties.

Not surprising this news appear in Singaporean media as they dont understand Indonesian domestic politics well and has editors which are eager to post any news showing negativity in Indonesia, their intention posting this news is to show to the world that Indonesian democracy is still largely controlled by party elites. The writer is Indonesian, but as reporter they do understand which news that is preferred by the editors to be posted.

-----------------------------------

Indonesia's major political parties mull over sidelining most popular candidates in next presidential polls​

Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo (left) and Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan have been ranked tier one candidates by pollsters based on their individual electability. PHOTOS: CENTRAL JAVA GOVERNOR'S OFFICE, ANIES BASWEDAN/FACEBOOK

PUBLISHED

SEP 1, 2022, 6:07 PM SGT

FacebookTwitter

JAKARTA - Two popular presidential hopefuls may be out of the running even before the race has begun, as political parties in the ruling coalition may be trying to deny them a party ticket.

The top leaders of some major political parties have reportedly engaged in closed-door talks about denying Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan of a nomination for the 2024 presidential election.

Indonesia's major political parties mull over sidelining most popular candidates in next presidential polls

The leaders of some major parties were reportedly in talks about denying Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan of a nomination. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com