Indo-Pak reality

[Bang Galore]

Pardon me if I sound ignorant but supply through ships would involve Liquefied form only, can all petroleum byproducts be converted to liquefied form?

And that is what I am saying make choices (sellers) for India lesser and lesser, convince the sellers (raising references to separate security for CPEC and China's involvement) not India, and how long India can wait with limited options then? Plus how about India's access to CAR and that side of world for its exports etc? Chahbahar only and that too through naval means? I may be wrong but one main advantage that Iran had / has location near to Strait of Hormuz, why that cannot be equally strategic importance of Pakistan?

Two points:

To your first - LNG carrier - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

As for the second, India is a massive market, nobody will bypass India. It is not like India has only one option. The countries of the Gulf are not trying to get close to India because of any great love for India, it is because the market of that size is not available with a couple of exceptions. Not everyone will/can have an alternative buyer.

India's access to CAR is overstated, not much business that will accrue. However, with India-Pakistani relations the way they are, India will almost certainly look at an alternate route even if it pushes up costs. Pakistan has the same strategic location as Iran but since the target is India, Pakistan is not an appealing alternative.

Btw, pipelines are likely to be a pipe dream. With oil prices at such lows, there is no immediate interest in the project.

 

[Nick81]

The way I see it, you dont have any other option than to follow the proverbial baniya since strength, moral or military apparently isn't your forte.

Rest about the bhabhi syndrome, I see the frequent night outs nearby heera Mandi have convoluted your tender mind...

And this guy is a Mod on this forum...figures....

 

[Not So Good]

In any normal scenario Seller -----------------> Buyer or Buyer ------------------------> seller direct relationship happens but here Pakistan is in between buyer and seller and India cannot ignore buying this commodity for long and seller surely wishes to have access to Indian market. Going through oceans if you ask me personally I would have had that adviser's head lying in a plate in front of me. Not a feasible option, neither cost wise (forget capex its a sunk cost once a project is undertaken, but the opex part would be high and is all times relevant) nor strategically when it comes to protection and maintenance,and it would take lengthy periods to build these pipelines. India is already locked to have its demand fulfilled, we need to convince the seller and sell them the idea, convince them its either through Pakistan or else it is nowhere feasible and a total loss.

In nutshell Pakistan needs to convince the seller only and have them lock India's interests in Pakistan, Pakistan may not be a big market and a strong economy but it has its position on map to sell ............... but that may not happen.

Wow such a beautiful countrymen, they want to sell their land to virtually anyone and everyone interested

 

[Optimos Prime IA]

Indo-Pak reality

Moeed Yusuf

INDIA is all over the media again. Prime Minister Modi has irked our nationalist fervour with the Sialkot incident. Officialdom is back in the groove, regularly throwing around words like ‘honour’, ‘dignity’, ‘parity’, etc.

Thankfully, I sense that our decision-makers recognise that while the usual game of pinning Modi down for this (and whenever else he overplays his hand) must be played, this tactical positioning can only get one so far. They are rightly more perturbed about what they feel is Modi’s larger design: to keep Pakistan internally unstable and globally isolated. Equally, they feel the world is deliberately going along despite Modi’s insincerity towards resolving outstanding disputes and his insistence on talking to Pakistan only on India’s terms.

My worry though is that in terms of responses, we are still fixated on outmanoeuvring India in the tactical realm. This is self-defeating, especially if one takes Pakistan’s own analysis of Modi’s policy at face value. If Modi wants to keep Pakistan in the dock, preoccupying us at the tactical level is precisely what he would be aiming for.

To understand this, we first need to establish why Modi is able to maintain a dismissive attitude towards Pakistan and why the world is looking the other way.

Why is Modi able to maintain a dismissive attitude towards us?
An honest analysis on our part should lead us to recognise that India’s expanded manoeuvring space is a function of the growing disparity in strengths between the two countries. It’s statecraft 101: with an internal base that is stronger than ever, India can afford to forego benefits of improved ties with Pakistan, especially if its dismissiveness allows it to keep Kashmir off the table.

Equally, the world’s attitude towards India is driven by a convergence of interest between Delhi and the global powers. India offers the world’s military-industrial complex the single largest market and its economy has locked in Western business and investment interests. Add to this the West’s flawed belief that India will play counterweight to China.

Therefore, if I am Modi and I want to keep Pakistan boxed in, I would want to ensure that my differential with Pakistan grows further; that Pakistan remains the world’s favourite whipping boy; and consequently, I feel no real pressure to negotiate sincerely on disputes with Pakistan.

Modi can best achieve this by keeping Pakistan stuck in its current India-centric security paradigm. To do so, he needs to keep Pakistan’s traditionally heightened threat perception of India intact. If he can keep Pakistan worried about his military’s strength, formations, doctrines and periodic actions such as on the LoC and about his growing ties with Pakistan’s neighbours, he’ll be set.

Pakistan’s resources will remain disproportionally committed to defence and it will be distracted from its more pressing internal needs. India’s economy will keep growing (despite losses associated with broken ties with Pakistan) but Pakistan’s priorities will remain fundamentally warped.

Pakistan’s decision-makers should realise that focusing solely on the tactical game with Modi only plays into his hands. You’ve got to think strategic and find a way to reverse Modi’s two real advantages: power differential; and the world’s support to him.

Pakistan’s only silver bullet solution is creating leverage over India by forging strong economic ties with it. By doing so, you’ll tie Indian and regional economic interests with yours and force India to develop stakes in keeping the Pakistani economy integrated and thus, mainstreamed. Projects like Tapi will make India dependent on transit through Pakistan (India wouldn’t be able to afford instability in areas hosting pipes/transmission lines); allowing overland route to India will mean that its entire trade with Central Asia will be dependent on you; you’ll undercut the competitiveness of Iran’s Chahbahar port; likewise, offering India-held Kashmir transit through your ports will link them intrinsically to you; and by tying CPEC to an east-west corridor involving India, you’ll not only optimise gains but force India to de facto acknowledge your right over Gilgit-Baltistan.

Most importantly, you will be able to break the regional logjam that is holding your economy back. An improved economy will naturally begin to interest the world positively. A stronger economic base will also allow you to maintain robust defence capabilities, but now without being an obvious drag on your economy.

Mind you, this paradigm shift will not prevent you from continuing to play the tactical game, firmly advocating your position on Kashmir, etc. in the interim. That you must to keep your stakes in the game. But the course suggested here will simultaneously begin to move you towards attaining real ‘honour’, ‘dignity’, and ‘parity’, that builds on internal strength rather than hollow sloganeering. This is the only way to compel India to negotiate with Pakistan somewhat evenhandedly.

The writer is a foreign policy expert based in Washington, DC.

Indo-Pak reality - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

Ok best way to deal our hate is to put both leaders in Arm wrestling ! Nawaz vs Modi ... mean while Obama vs Putin . Lets do it

 

[Nick81]

Wow such a beautiful countrymen, they want to sell their land to virtually anyone and everyone interested

Ypu...that's right. I have noticed this ever since I started frequenting Pakistani forums. Other nations discuss progress; Pakistanis discuss who to fool next into giving some more money. They just want to get by on handouts.

 

[Optimos Prime IA]

I find Moeed Yusuf analysis to be the best coming from the other side of the border.

What I don't understand is that why the other Pakistani analysts cannot get it. You cannot force some to come to the tables by threats of war and nukes, but by showing economic incentives.

How will deal with pakistan economically ? They will ask for aid but again use them against us

 

[I.R.A]

Wow such a beautiful countrymen, they want to sell their land to virtually anyone and everyone interested

I would have appreciated your comment but it is an ignorant rant uttered by a person who lacks ability to read properly and has comprehension problems.

Or maybe you are a real estate agent, and then it is expected of you to misconstrue a reference to position on map to something like selling land.

 

[MilSpec]

Dis-engage... De-escalate.... develop.....evaluate.... re-engage.

 

[Nick81]

I would have appreciated your comment but it is an ignorant rant uttered by a person who lacks ability to read properly and has comprehension problems.

Or maybe you are a real estate agent, and then it is expected of you to misconstrue a reference to position on map to something like selling land.

What is so wrong in the statement? When you say sell Pakistan's position, aren't you referring to the "unique geographical position" that Pakistanis keep harping about? What does it mean? Sell rights of passage to NATO supplies, sell open border with Afghanistan to fund and arm the Mujahideen and later on the Taliban. Use its position as sitting in the middle point of oil and gas pipelines to extract rent and concessions. Use a possible "corridor" for Chinese import of raw material and export of finished goods to get cheap loans. What are these if not selling the country to the highest bidder and rent-seeking by being a middleman? Which respectable country of 200 million people has such a strategy for economic survival?

 

[I.R.A]

What is so wrong in the statement? When you say sell Pakistan's position, aren't you referring to the "unique geographical position" that Pakistanis keep harping about? What does it mean? Sell rights of passage to NATO supplies, sell open border with Afghanistan to fund and arm the Mujahideen and later on the Taliban. Use its position as sitting in the middle point of oil and gas pipelines to extract rent and concessions. Use a possible "corridor" for Chinese import of raw material and export of finished goods to get cheap loans. What are these if not selling the country to the highest bidder and rent-seeking by being a middleman? Which respectable country of 200 million people has such a strategy for economic survival?

and some more and .

 

[Faiez]

sell them the idea of it's either through Pakistan or else its a lost investment.

Lost investment over Pakistan any day.......

 

[I.R.A]

Lost investment over Pakistan any day.......

.

Pipeline bichany ja rahy hain samandar may, sirf Pakistan ko katany kay chakar may, bhala koi in say pochay kay koi karny wali bat karro yar yeh kya hai

 

[Nick81]

and some more and .

I repeat, which self-respecting country of 200 million people has an economic survival strategy like Pakistan's. Okay, if the word self-respecting are not their in your lexicon and is posing problems - which country of 200 million, self-respecting or not, has a similar strategy?

 

[I.R.A]

I repeat, which self-respecting country of 200 million people has an economic survival strategy like Pakistan's. Okay, if the word self-respecting are not their in your lexicon and is posing problems - which country of 200 million, self-respecting or not, has a similar strategy?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Which other self respecting country is blessed with a neighboring country like India and still survived 68 years?

 

[Sky lord]

Author only presents only one side of scenario but not the other one. What if pakistan ends up exporting more to india and ends up having a substantial stake in Indias stability like china does for US ?
Then pakistan will think twice about going to war/raising the hackles without hurting itself.

OMG ..that would be terrible, peace would break out all over South Asia...maybe even leading to an integrated common market and then what would PDFers. do for time pass? Nah...best to keep it this way.

Don't engage directly with India and Modi, go after partners of India for these business interests, and sell them the idea of it's either through Pakistan or else its a lost investment. Make them realise how it is more feasible and more beneficial. Modi's advisers are already selling him the idea to lay pipelines through ocean without engaging Pakistan.

But then again you need to forget mangoes and sariz and start thinking how to engage and attract partners of your enemy................... which sadly our competent advisers don't anticipate.

What " lost investment" Who is lining up to invest in Pakistan?