Indo-Pak reality

[Gandhi follower]

India doesn't have any incentive in talking to Pakistan. Pakistan doesn't have any leverage.

Anyways if Pakistani members think that pakistan has too many cards to play with India , india too can play with water.

 

[I.R.A]

Why is it not his or my business if you imply that Pakistan will sabotage pipelines if they don't run through it? It is of direct concern to us as it effects India's economy. If India raises concerns over your CPEC, which apparently will cure all of Pakistan's ills, don't you get worked up about it? Because you treat it as a last-ditch attempt to revive a still-born economy.

You write lengthy paragraphs and the best you could infer from my comments is that I am implying sabotaging Indian pipelines or whatever.................................. wow that reflects your thought process.

Lost investment does not mean sabotage by Pakistan ( @Sky lord you too get it through your thick skull), lost investment would mean where you have incurred huge cost and return on that cost is NIL (Nothing, Nadah), in fact operational cost to maintain such project exceeds its returns, its NPV is negative, it means the project does not even achieve break even in terms of investment cost and future returns.

Now excuse me, I cannot help people who live and feed on propaganda and cannot see anything else except war, destruction, chaos, hate and enmity in everything.

 

[Nick81]

You write lengthy paragraphs and the best you could infer from my comments is that I am implying sabotaging Indian pipelines or whatever.................................. wow that reflects your thought process.

Lost investment does not mean sabotage by Pakistan ( @Sky lord you too get it through your thick skull), lost investment would mean where you have incurred huge cost and return on that cost is NIL (Nothing, Nadah), in fact operational cost to maintain such project exceeds its returns, its NPV is negative, it means the project does not even achieve break even in terms of investment cost and future returns.

Now excuse me, I cannot help people who live and feed on propaganda and cannot see anything else except war, destruction, chaos, hate and enmity in everything.

But why will RoE be zero? Just because it doesn't go through Pakistan? A pipeline is simply meant to transport oil or gas goddammit. Its RoE is optimal as long as it flows. The only scenario wherein that stops is if the oil or gas is no longer there, the taps are turned off, or the pipeline is sabotaged. So since Pakistan has no say in the first two things, it is obvious you are talking about sabotage. You think everyone is stupid enough to get confused if you through unrelated terms around. How does operational cost increase by not routing it through Pakistan? How is RoE not achieved unless Pakistan sabotages the pipeline?

 

[I.R.A]

But why will RoE be zero? Just because it doesn't go through Pakistan? A pipeline is simply meant to transport oil or gas goddammit. Its RoE is optimal as long as it flows. The only scenario wherein that stops is if the oil or gas is no longer there, the taps are turned off, or the pipeline is sabotaged. So since Pakistan has no say in the first two things, it is obvious you are talking about sabotage. You think everyone is stupid enough to get confused if you through unrelated terms around. How does operational cost increase by not routing it through Pakistan? How is RoE not achieved unless Pakistan sabotages the pipeline?

Go a head try laying pipelines in ocean. When you succeed in that then may be we will be able to discuss the cost and maintenance part and expected future returns. For the time being its a dream a wishful thinking. And why the hell would I need to sabotage someone's wishful thinking? And do I look like someone who would order the sabotage? who has this decision authority?

 

[Nick81]

Go a head try laying pipelines in ocean. When you succeed in that then may be we will be able to discuss the cost and maintenance part and expected future returns. For the time being its a dream a wishful thinking. And why the hell would I need to sabotage someone's wishful thinking? And do I look like someone who would order the sabotage? who has this decision authority?

We are not the first country to lay ocean pipelines, if we decide to do so. Plus tankers are also open as an option. Everything depends on the direction of energy prices in the medium term.

You may not have the authority to order sabotage, but you do have the cheek to suggest it!

 

[Sky lord]

Go a head try laying pipelines in ocean. When you succeed in that then may be we will be able to discuss the cost and maintenance part and expected future returns. For the time being its a dream a wishful thinking. And why the hell would I need to sabotage someone's wishful thinking? And do I look like someone who would order the sabotage? who has this decision authority?

As Nick81 said, who died and made you the expert on ROI? ..and. Ms. G enius, you may not be aware but there is already a network of underwater cables criss crossing every major ocean in the world and much of India's service sector exports already go through these cables. We are not talking unknown feats of engineering here...just normal business.

 

[Nicky G]

"Pak is less a country a military, more their military is one with a country" - whoever said that summed it up better than anyone else ever has that I am aware of.

No amount of analysis will do any good unless this fundamental points forms the basis for said analysis. Those in real position of power in Pak are interested in using the status of a country to forward their agenda and most will chose the shortest and easiest way possible - which is make a nuisance of themselves and whine long and loud enough for some other power to care.

Besides, the analysis, though it may be better than what comes out of Pak, is frankly, childish. Not even a moron would fall for such a transparent and ill-thought out scheme. Then again, 'analysts' have to analyze to earn their living.

At the end of the day, Pak has nothing to offer India that would be faster, cheaper, better in the larger strategic context; while India has plenty of alternatives.

I stick by my earlier prediction, each year there would be overtures for talks but they will not come to transpire atleast as long as Modi is in power or something drastic happens in Pak.

 

[Sky lord]

Did you mean something like this?

"Pak is less a country a military, more their military is one with a country" - whoever said that summed it up better than anyone else ever has that I am aware

 

[Nicky G]

Did you mean something like this?

View attachment 252936

On the right track, though you'd need some metaphor for nukes to replace actual conventional strength - something that signifies suicidal tendencies too.

 

[Nick81]

On the right track, though you'd need some metaphor for nukes to replace actual conventional strength - something that signifies suicidal tendencies too.

Pakistan's position can be reduced down to this:

If India makes any attempt to confront the terrorist proxies that Pakistan uses against it, then Pakistan will have no option but to launch a nuclear strike.

What the Pakistanis don't seem to understand is that no amount of diplomatic effort that India has put in could achieve the result that Pakistan's official doctrine has done. While the Pakistanis gloat over the fact that India cannot do anything about their terror agenda, the world focuses on the fact that Pakistan aims to protect its terror agenda through nukes. Today, Pakistan is an international pariah due to its own doctrine, not due to any sterling efforts on our part. People tend to dislike those who resort to nuclear blackmail to sustain an agenda of terror. Everyone except Pakistanis seem to realize that.

 

[Sky lord]

Pakistan's position can be reduced down to this:

If India makes any attempt to confront the terrorist proxies that Pakistan uses against it, then Pakistan will have no option but to launch a nuclear strike.

What the Pakistanis don't seem to understand is that no amount of diplomatic effort that India has put in could achieve the result that Pakistan's official doctrine has done. While the Pakistanis gloat over the fact that India cannot do anything about their terror agenda, the world focuses on the fact that Pakistan aims to protect its terror agenda through nukes. Today, Pakistan is an international pariah due to its own doctrine, not due to any sterling efforts on our part. People tend to dislike those who resort to nuclear blackmail to sustain an agenda of terror. Everyone except Pakistanis seem to realize that.

Yeah and the sad part is that despite all this hubris and vanity ( there must be a hundred threads in PDF opened by pakistanis themselves celebrating how good looking they think they Are ...no other nationality does this) yet they show almost NO confidence in their own ability to turn things around in pakistan. All this talk is only about using threats of violence to extract rent...to blackmail....no discussion even on how to make money for themselves by making or creating a product and selling it. All this jingoism hides a terrible hopelessness and a feeling that they don't know what to do and nothing is going to work anyway. This is quite dangerous because it is just a step away from suicide...and if they go down they will do their darnest to take india down with them.

 

[Nick81]

Yeah and the sad part is that despite all this hubris and vanity ( there must be a hundred threads in PDF opened by pakistanis themselves celebrating how good looking they think they Are ...no other nationality does this) yet they show almost NO confidence in their own ability to turn things around in pakistan. All this talk is only about using threats of violence to extract rent...to blackmail....no discussion even on how to make money for themselves by making or creating a product and selling it. All this jingoism hides a terrible hopelessness and a feeling that they don't know what to do and nothing is going to work anyway. This is quite dangerous because it is just a step away from suicide...and if they go down they will do their darnest to take india down with them.

The Pakistani strategy is based on the premise that India has everything to lose and they have nothing to lose except their lives. And in that they are right. They have not built a single institution that functions. They pride themselves on an Army/ISI nexus that sells heroine to meet its expenses.

It's not that sane voices in Pakistan have not repeatedly pointed out the fallacies inherent in their nuclear blackmail policy. Najam Sethi, Hassan Nisar, Parvez Hoodbhoy, etc., have repeatedly pointed out that what use is a military doctrine based on suicide? But you are right, with the amount of despair inherent in them, why would they even care?

They cannot understand our mindset as they are not in our position. They think we are pulling a prank when we tell them that we would rather that Pakistan becomes a sustainable country than it collapsing and its nukes being let lose. I only wish that more of them were able to visit India, stay for a few weeks and realize how far we have moved on from petty sibling rivalries. We have our own concerns and attacking Pakistan is the least of them. But to understand that Pakistanis would need to have something else going on expect hopelessness, despair and violence.