India's growth estimate retained at 7.5% for 2015-16: World Bank

[Luca1]

Why use China as benchmark?

It's an Indian obsession

 

[Nilgiri]

I just read an article about Indian GDP growth result in Apr. to June this year, it slowed down to 7% from 7.5% percent. What happened?

That's y.o.y growth of a month. When the overall average for a year's total growth is expected at 7.5%...sometimes you will get monthly y.o.y of 7% and sometimes 8% etc.

Jaitley was saying this 7.5% - 8.5% growth that will be happening in next few years is not enough, it will have to increase even more. But they are setting the groundwork for that currently....we have to give them some time. There is no magical wand when you consider the very bad fiscal scenario they inherited.

 

[ito]

GST should add another 1% to the growth rate

 

[Misay]

pretty amazing

 

[Echo_419]

A growth rate of 7.5% will take us nowhere. we need a sustained double digit growth for atleast 5-10 years to bring down the poverty rate to a single digit..

I agree anything below 9% unacceptable, hopefully they will be able to reach that target by 2018

Very underwhelming really, India needs a 10-15 year period where it averages 9-10% growth yearly.

It certainly seems this is assuming no GST as @lightoftruth has pointed out. That move alone could boost growth by 0.7-1.2%.

Fingers crossed the NDA can get the seats in the RS and avoid the needless disruptions that have so defined the past parliament sessions. Some consensus building needs to take place and hopefully Modi can learn from the results (or lack thereof) his belligerent attitude delivered during the Monsoon session.

The time to get GST moving is NOW, not in 5 years- the lost productivity a lack of GST has inflicted on the Indian economy is in the high hundreds of billions and with every year that goes by this bill is increasing by tens of billions.

@Bang Galore @MilSpec @Koovie @nair @Star Wars @Dash @levina

A lot of it depends on Bihar

 

[Nilgiri]

If UPA were still in power, we would soon be seeing 5% and even lower growth (because of their fiscal retardation).

Put things into context guys.

 

[Dungeness]

That's y.o.y growth of a month. When the overall average for a year's total growth is expected at 7.5%...sometimes you will get monthly y.o.y of 7% and sometimes 8% etc.

Jaitley was saying this 7.5% - 8.5% growth that will be happening in next few years is not enough, it will have to increase even more. But they are setting the groundwork for that currently....we have to give them some time. There is no magical wand when you consider the very bad fiscal scenario they inherited.

I was a little disappointed with 7% growth for the quarter of Apr to June, the growth rate for the same period in China was the same 7%. It is not really "Move Over, China, India is coming" type of performance some India politicians were talking about. With the much lower base, Indian's economy growth should be doing much better than that of China. By the way, do you know the FY Q2 growth rate? I hope we can see a better number than China's 6.9%.

 

[deepak.chauhan2312]

Why use China as benchmark?

China have done it so we are lookig at that target first.

 

[Nilgiri]

I was a little disappointed with 7% growth for the quarter of Apr to June, the growth rate for the same period in China was the same 7%. It is not really "Move Over, China, India is coming" type of performance some India politicians were talking about. With the much lower base, Indian's economy growth should be doing much better than that of China. By the way, do you know the FY Q2 growth rate? I hope we can see a better number than China's 6.9%.

India is still going though a recovery phase from the previous administration. We are nowhere close to China's economy so its a bad comparison, we are basically trying to rev up the growth engine right now and it will take 1 term of this administration I think...but may be earlier. We will see. I think Q2 Data will be out sometime in late November.

 

[Godman]

I agree anything below 9% unacceptable, hopefully they will be able to reach that target by 2018

2018 may be too late if you want to get closer to china. China is a large economy and having 6%+ growth rate is pretty amazing.
You should aim for 10% growth rate by 2017 at least

 

[Shotgunner51]

China have done it so we are lookig at that target first.

Weak reasoning, there 193 countries as per UN, many countries have also done it. Find someone who has more similar features or characteristics with you, not China.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Bro, since you're the economics expert do you find the title misleading?

Growth vs GDP growth is that two different things. In this case, growth of 7.5% does not factor in inflation whereas actual GDP growth does?

Well it is a forecast, for future, so for reference only. I will just clarify some facts

1. World Bank database has Nominal
   
2. Real Growth is Nominal Growth less Inflation; No such data included in WB database

GDP growth (annual %) | Data | Table

GDP growth (annual %)
Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2005 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.
GDP per capita growth (annual %)
Annual percentage growth rate of GDP per capita based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2005 U.S. dollars. GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.​

 

[Echo_419]

2018 may be too late if you want to get closer to china. China is a large economy and having 6%+ growth rate is pretty amazing.
You should aim for 10% growth rate by 2017 at least

Where did I used the word China.my point is simple & I am talking about something which is achievable & not fantasy.9% by 2018 is possible & so is 10% by 2015.

 

[Godman]

Where did I used the word China.my point is simple & I am talking about something which is achievable & not fantasy.9% by 2018 is possible & so is 10% by 2015.

I was talking about GDP size not becoming like China.
Indian GDP will reach the top 5 soon and China is the fastest growing one in them.

 

[Abingdonboy]

If UPA were still in power, we would soon be seeing 5% and even lower growth (because of their fiscal retardation).

Put things into context guys.

So because the NDA is doing better than the UPA that is okay bro? I don't like this constant comparison to the UPA- the NDA needs to be held to a higher standard otherwise they are being let off the hook to a large degree. Their entire election promise was entered around development so let's see them deliver- forget about UPA.


+ as an aside, one should remember that the last few years of the UPA 2's tenure have now seen their growth figures revised to far more positive figures. In this light the NDA are only performing marginally better.