India's anti ballistic missile capabilities

[ares]

Yep, like I mentioned, some of the bhartis quantifying the probability of hit is comical to begin with, and then having numbers such as 98% and 100% makes it even worse.

As far as soviets were concerned, I have always maintained that Pakistan was merely helping US do the work. I didn't mentioned that in my last post, but yes, that in my opinion was what happened.

You speak like, you know some thing, the rest of us don't. Please do share such trivia with rest of us lesser beings. Perhaps we had a rocket scientist amidst us and we din't even know.

 

[SMC]

You know, when you use sarcasm in these kinds of situations, you only dig a deeper hole for yourself.

As to the point, it's really stupid to quantify the probability to begin with. Probability of destroying the missile depends on distance from where the missile is launched, speed of the missile, its reentry vehicle, etc. Even then, no one can say that they have this much chance of destroying the missile at this distance, because their tests are done in a controlled environment.

On top of that, there were some people mentioning interception rates such as 98% and 100%. Hello? Look at the ******* distance between the borders. If the missile is launched toward western India, there is a very, very slim chance that it will be successfully destroyed.

 

[ares]

You know, when you use sarcasm in these kinds of situations, you only dig a deeper hole for yourself.

As to the point, it's really stupid to quantify the probability to begin with. Probability of destroying the missile depends on distance from where the missile is launched, speed of the missile, its reentry vehicle, etc. Even then, no one can say that they have this much chance of destroying the missile at this distance, because their tests are done in a controlled environment.

On top of that, there were some people mentioning interception rates such as 98% and 100%. Hello? Look at the ******* distance between the borders. If the missile is launched toward western India, there is a very, very slim chance that it will be successfully destroyed.

I don't understand, what do you find so difficult to quantify are you unfamiliar with CEP of surface to surface to missiles, every missile has them...do you question that?

Similarly every Surface to air missile comes with a different kill probability against varaitey of flying targets"(aircrafts, UAVs, missiles) ..it is not based on whims nd fancies of scientist, but on simulations and test carried out.

As you must be knowing a Ballistic missile follows a parabolic trajectory just like an artillery shell..hence once launched, its speed, direction can not be controlled..all the simulations are carried out against a predicted enemy missile or aircraft performance.

And as far a reaction time is concerned..Indian ABM is based not on American NMD or THAAD but on Israeli Arrow ..which also has to react in similar response time.

For prolonging the response time, Long range tracking radars and geostationary missile detection satellites are required which can detect the missile launch at boost phase itself and termination can start in midcourse.

 

[SMC]

This is key information regarding Shaheen II.

This re-entry vehicle is unlike that of the Shaheen-I in that it has four moving delta control fins at the rear and small solid/liquid-propellant side thrust motors, which are used to orientate the re-entry vehicle after the booster stage is depleted or before re-entry to improve accuracy by providing stabilization during the terminal phase. This can also be used to fly evasive manoeuvres, making it immensely problematic for existing anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defence systems to successfully intercept the missile. The Shaheen-II warhead may change its trajectory several times during re-entry and during the terminal phase, effectively preventing ABM radar systems from pre-calculating intercept points.

Like I mentioned, one thing that matters is the quality of the missile. If shaheen II indeed changes its trajectory, then any ABM is useless.

Also, correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the only serious threat faced by Iran is Israel? And the distance between the two countries is much greater than eastern Pakistan and western India.

 

[ares]

This is key information regarding Shaheen II.



Like I mentioned, one thing that matters is the quality of the missile. If shaheen II indeed changes its trajectory, then any ABM is useless.

Also, correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the only serious threat faced by Iran is Israel? And the distance between the two countries is much greater than eastern Pakistan and western India.

Well the only way a missile will change its trajectory, if its target package changes that also during initial boost phase(engine powered phase).

And missile speed or it flightpath, launch site, target site are not predertemined, it is calculated by tracking radar after launch and the reasons it so predictable is because all ballistic missiles follow parabolic path...so tracking the missiles for few seconds, gives you the exact flight path it will follow.

Iran is a major contender, as of now but the only missile attacks in history launched on Israel were from lanched Iraq during Gulf War1..and Arrow prog was lanched in reaction to that(when Patriots failed).

Besisdes Hezbollah in Lebanon is ever present danger, they might smuggle SRBMs just like they smuggle MRLs.

 

[Kinetic]

Back to the topic and hopefully ignoring the trolls. India's BMD is more aimed at a Chinese threat than us, its quite simple, unlike the US and USSR where missile warning times are much greater.. a missile launched from even a 100km from the Pakistani side will be at dehli at around 5 minutes..

DRDO tested it from distances of 70 km (when the target launched from Wheeler Island) apart to few hundred km(When the target launched from ship). Where the reaction time was less than five minutes.

a missile launched from even a 100km from the Pakistani side will be at dehli at around 5 minutes..

I am sure at that moment of war Pakistan will not be able to keep them 100 km from war or even few hundreds km away, thanks to large number of fighters and cruise missiles. They need to hide them long away from the border, so as India.

The Indian ABM's are designed to kill in the reentry phase... well guess what.. half of our missiles follow a damn flat trajectory.. which mean that even if one super duper warhead did manage to come close to hitting our warhead.. it would probably result in an airburst over the intended target.

None of Pakistan's missile can follow flat trajectory. Pure ballistic missiles can't do it and needed high maneuverability and and extreme heat resistance even with in the body let alone the reentry vehicle. Even at flat trajectory BMs can be detected at long distances and can be intercepted way before they come over the intended target.

Why do you think the Americans were soo freaked out the missiles in cuba during 1962.. because the Soviets were too..
MRBMS.. that close to the border don't give much time to react..
Which means that by the time you even realize what the crap just happened its already too late. The only possible safeguard the Indian ABM's provide is for the eastward cities like bangalore and calcutta..

This is not 1962 but 2010. Time and technologies have changed entirely. Short range missiles are not difficult to intercept now. PAC-3 achieved 100% operational hit during GW-2. Multiple early warning and multi stage interception made it true. Watch these two videos...

So in case its war.. and you are in a city in western India.. kiss your *** goodbye. Pakistani's should do so in advance, since they were stupid enough to leave Balochistan under developed so that even if some of them did survive there isn't much to look out for.

Never gonna happen like that.

 

[SQ8]

I suppose you have first hand knowledge of Pakistan's missiles and their trajectory patterns to comment on that, and if this was 2020 for all I care, with a 5 minute warning time and what not on that hyped up system.
Consider this, it wont be a single weapon inbound at you.
Also.. you clearly (really should not either) have any Idea about the employment options available to Pakistan. And seem to be basing your ideas on successful tests after repeated failures.. ever heard of the sparrow missile??.. the silver bullet that was supposed to end dogfighting.. dont remember it ending too well for those that had put soo much faith in its successful tests.
But lets give you the benifit of statistical hubbubs...
How many tests of the AAD? against multiple maneuvering MIRV targets I am guessing flying flat trajectories and dispensing decoys.. countermeasures?.
Please.. give me some more statistics.

 

[lionheart1]

mr santro pakistan does not have any mirv missile, at least we have tested abm against mush accurate missile, when our abm are accurate and sharp enough for prithvi ballistic missile where the reaction time is less than 3 min. then it is good enough for any missile,
we as a nation believe in our scientist, in our ability to develop abm, we also invested 150 million dollor in arrow-3 we also get critical technology from Israel
more over you didnt tested your missile from atleast two year . instead of worrying about our abm technology improve your missile technology

 

[SMC]

"Improve our Missile technology"?

Hahahah!

Shaheen II is already a state of the art missile. Shaheen I has recently been upgraded to the same standards, from what I understand.

Also, as far as MIRV is concerned, this is what I wrote a few pages earlier.

It's been discussed by several authentic people on several defence forums. The chances are very high that Shaheen II has been MIRVed. If it has not been, it will be very soon.

Pakistan military is secretive to an extent and MIRV testing is not something they would want to release to public as that could create quite of bit of headache for the military. You probably know that it has been secretive in the past so this is nothing new.

Now you can act like a typical keyboard warrior and say that if it's in public then it's true and if it's not in public then it's false (unless of course the opposite suits you). But Pakistan military has a history of having these rumours discussed by authentic people being true. Hence if I were you, I wouldn't take it lightly. Because the next time it will be used publicly would be in a war, and you don't wanna see an MIRV missile that you're totally unprepared to handle.

 

[lionheart1]

@smc then you think some so called authentic people talk mean then you have got the technology or you write so many thing it does not make any differences . we know what kind state of the art is your Shaheen II. we can track your missile it distance and its ability ( it should not make any difference us) mainly to improve any technology you need money which you dont have

 

[Kinetic]

I suppose you have first hand knowledge of Pakistan's missiles and their trajectory patterns to comment on that,

Which missile specifically you are talking about? What trajectory?

and if this was 2020 for all I care, with a 5 minute warning time and what not on that hyped up system.

BMD technologies are well matured. Thanks to large AESA and very fast computing and related threat assessment and engagement technologies, now the reaction time is not a problem.

Consider this, it wont be a single weapon inbound at you.

A single LRTR is capable of tracking 200 targets at a distance of upto 600 km away and new LRTR-2 underdevelopment at a range of 1500 km away. If adequate systems are there than larger number s not a problem at all. Say, Pakistan fires 50 missiles at a time, than there will be atleast 10 radars to track them and hundreds of interceptors at different altitudes to engage them.

Also.. you clearly (really should not either) have any Idea about the employment options available to Pakistan.

Pakistan's military budget isn't huge that it can produce large number of missiles. Also India will try best to destroy the nukes and BMs as much as possible with in few days of war, thanks to superior air force. Also look at the map of Pakistan, none of its land mass is far away from India. But India can hide nukes in Bengal or North East or South India.

And seem to be basing your ideas on successful tests after repeated failures

Which failures are you talking about?

.. ever heard of the sparrow missile??.. the silver bullet that was supposed to end dogfighting.. dont remember it ending too well for those that had put soo much faith in its successful tests.

That is a complete different scenario. Many constraints remained there. Fighter aircrafts added many capabilities but not the pure BMs like those Pakistan have. When they tests the missile defence, the target missile simulate as like the one enemy got.

But lets give you the benifit of statistical hubbubs...
How many tests of the AAD? against multiple maneuvering MIRV targets I am guessing flying flat trajectories and dispensing decoys.. countermeasures?.
Please.. give me some more statistics.

We are talking about India-Pakistan scenario and Pakistan has none of these. As you are talking about them pls show that Pakistan has them or developing them.

But the project director of missile defence programme mentioned that they are developing all technologies to destroy such threats in future. New PDV missile will get some of those. It can go upto 130 km above earth and has IR seeker. Test of PDV any time this year. Two new generation high altitude (~250 km) missiles AD-1 and AD-2 also under development. They will start test of them from 2012 onward.

You can see there are multiple missiles to destroy the target at various altitudes, its almost impossible to deceive all of them.

 

[Kinetic]

"Improve our Missile technology"?

Hahahah!

Shaheen II is already a state of the art missile. Shaheen I has recently been upgraded to the same standards, from what I understand.

Also, as far as MIRV is concerned, this is what I wrote a few pages earlier.

"It's been discussed by several authentic people on several defence forums. The chances are very high that Shaheen II has been MIRVed. If it has not been, it will be very soon.

Pakistan military is secretive to an extent and MIRV testing is not something they would want to release to public as that could create quite of bit of headache for the military. You probably know that it has been secretive in the past so this is nothing new.

Now you can act like a typical keyboard warrior and say that if it's in public then it's true and if it's not in public then it's false (unless of course the opposite suits you). But Pakistan military has a history of having these rumours discussed by authentic people being true. Hence if I were you, I wouldn't take it lightly. Because the next time it will be used publicly would be in a war, and you don't wanna see an MIRV missile that you're totally unprepared to handle. "

What state of the art technologies are you talking about? Any new technology? Upgrade? we cannot talk on what some defence forums think or about chances. We talk on news reports or other sources. You seems to be talking on pure speculations.

 

[Chanakyaa]

"Improve our Missile technology"?

Hahahah!

Shaheen II is already a state of the art missile. Shaheen I has recently been upgraded to the same standards, from what I understand.

Also, as far as MIRV is concerned, this is what I wrote a few pages earlier.

Pathetic Logic.

I will give u a better understanding of technological Challenge.

Indian Agni III is NOT Mirved.

BUT INDIA HAS LAUNCHED 10 SATELLITES IN ONE LAUNCH.. WHICH IS THE BASIC FUNDAMENTAL TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATING OUR MIRV CAPABILITY.

INDIA INVESTING IN MIRV TECHNOLOGY

Ajey Lele
Research Fellow, IDSA
e-mail: ajeylele@yahoo.co.in

What is a credible nuclear deterrence? This question is being debated in India for last couple of years without much of agreement amongst security experts. The debate normally focuses around issues such as what number of nuclear weapons should India possess? What should be the yield and type? Should the nature of nuclear threat envisaged from adversaries determine the number of weapons? Or should the type and number of targets which India proposes to engage to prove its second strike capability, decide the numbers we should possess?

All these discussions have one basic premise and that is: one missile would deliver one nuclear warhead. India’s nuclear triad: a delivery system for nuclear missile from an aerial platform, ship/land based platform or a submarine also essentially caters for one nuclear warhead per one missile launch. However, all this could change and the debate on ‘quantifying’ nuclear deterrence would have to take an additional parameter into consideration in near future and that is India’s MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles) capabilities. India’s Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) is proposing to develop a new strategic weapon technology called MIRV.

MIRV technology is not a new technology. Rather it is a technology of the 1960s and was first developed by the US, followed by USSR. MIRV is a set of nuclear weapons carried on a single missile (intercontinental or submarine launched ballistic missile). This technology allows striking several targets in a single launch. During the launch the main rocket of this system pushes the set of warheads up in the atmosphere. Each warhead strikes a target separately. The launch of such missile constitutes firing a missile having multiple stages. During its ballistic path every stage gets separated at a predetermined time after the launch. Along with every stage one or more warheads get fired. A four stage missile could fire eight to ten warheads on the targets. For a standard launch normally 60 seconds after the launch the first stage separates and other two or three stages separate roughly with an interval of 60 seconds each. The post boost vehicle which separates from the missile prepares for re-entry into the earth’s atmosphere. During all these maneuvers, warheads get fired after a gap of few seconds at pre-identified targets. The exact technology of firing sequence and how it actually happens has, for obvious reasons, always been kept a secret by states possessing this technology.

For better understanding, parallels could be drawn from the multiple satellite launches undertaken by few states with a single launch vehicle. There have been cases where around eight to ten satellites have been launched in one go. The major difference is that these satellites are positioned in different orbits in space while in case of MIRV the warheads re-enter the earth’s atmosphere and fire on the target. The system is designed in such a fashion that the damage caused by several small warheads could be much more than that caused by a single warhead.

There are reports that now India’s premier defence research organization DRDO is validating technologies towards testing MIRV. According to DRDO officials, the platform for re-entry vehicles would be dissimilar from their earlier successful designs used in Agni series of missiles. It appears that they are testing a more modern technology. Another challenge for the Indian scientists would be to design and develop a guiding system with a high degree of accuracy. Some are of the opinion that MIRV technology need not be viewed only with a nuclear backdrop and even conventional warheads could be placed onboard of such missile. It also needs to be noted that India is yet to prove its ICBM capabilities and is expected to test 5,000-km-range Agni-V missile shortly.

MIRV testing has received a significant amount of criticism too. This technology is known for reducing the impact of Strategic Arms Limitation Talks agreement (SALT). SALT talks about limiting the number of missiles but with MIRV the issue of number of missiles becomes irrelevant since a single missile can carry many warheads and cause significant destruction. Also, this technology reduces the importance of a missile defence shield. This is because such systems are capable of addressing only one missile threat at a time.

Possession of MIRV technology is expected to boost India’s defence preparedness. DRDO’s willingness to invest in this technology clearly indicates that India’s missile programme has matured considerably. Coming years would see greater Indian investment in micro-electro mechanical systems (MEMS), nano-sensors, nano-materials and advanced information technology tools. Such investments would be essential for creating reliable and robust but highly accurate systems like MIRV. This technology would certainly boost India’s nuclear deterrence capabilities. It also needs to be appreciated that the technologies developed for MIRV would find direct or indirect applicability in various other fields of defence too.

 

[SMC]

What state of the art technologies are you talking about? Any new technology? Upgrade? we cannot talk on what some defence forums think or about chances. We talk on news reports or other sources. You seems to be talking on pure speculations.

I already discussed this. You're a typical internet keyboard warrior whose logic is that if something is in the public then its true and if its not in public then its false. The fact of the matter is Pakistan has been working on MIRV for a while now and several authentic people have discussed that Shaheen II may very well have been MIRVed or will be MIRVed soon.

Now you can be a typical keyboard warrior and talk all big and say that since its not in public, it must be false. But considering that Pakistan military has a history of secrecy (to an extent), the big talk won't help when you have MIRVs heading towards Delhi in a war. I am sure those working at RAW aren't as stupid as this.

@XiNiX - I don't care about India's capabilities here.

@lionheart1 - clearly by your reply, your a cross between a troll and a keyboard warrior, so I will not waste time here.

 

[Trisonics]

3 fairly straight forward points:

Maneuvering Missiles: A missile usually corrects itself with inputs from GPS system to have optimal CEP. Shaheen 2 does not have the capability to detect an anti missile on its own to take "evasive" maneuvers. If one is to believe that it can take inputs from ground control then, ground control should also have info of the anti missile to know when to submit inputs.
Even if the super shaheen 2 can out maneuver itself into a trajectory that is impossible for the anti missile to calculate, what are the chances that the CEP standards are met? If it does not hit the intended area, its still a thumsup for the ABM since the missile did not hit where it is supposed to!
Ballistic Missile Trajectory predictions are not a mystery, so also the so called maneuvers of the target missiles. Both missiles have their own limitations and the success is highly dependent on how fast the target can be detected [please read point 2].
The Indian system is deployed at 2 tiers and can employ more than one missile at a time to counter the target!

Detection and Reaction Times: It is not like Pakistanis wake up one fine day, decide I wanna play with a missile and launch it at India. It will only be launched during periods of war and its laughable that people assume India can do nothing. India infact will focus all its resources on the Pak border. Also remember the Indian ABMS are on a WAN and get inputs from satellites, radars and AWACS! Typically such systems can be in autonomous mode and need no human intervention to determine if a missile has been launched.

Lastly, Why Pakistani missile technological advances are kept secret can be argued in more than one way
But yes, MIRV will cause problems and so will cruise missiles.

if Pakistan is so confident that the Indian ABMs are useless ..good for you..hey! but we did reach the moon!