SP cannot win 1st Phase- at best It can damage BSP's chances there- two things have happened-
1-RLD has cut in to BJP's vote chunk(51%) in 2014- It many not be winning many seats but It has damaged BJP's chances in key seats of the Jat belt districts-
2-SP has cut into BSP's Muslim vote share- however they don't have much support besides Muslims(only 7% Yadav that too concentrated in few areas)-
3-Dalits are consolidating behind BSP-
4- Non-Yadav OBC united under Lodhs and voted overwhelmingly for BJP some reports indicate more than 2014-
BJP in spite of loosing Jat votes would be still around 33-34% which means a loss of about 16-17% from what it got in 2014 and be the single largest party from phase 1-
SP would win 2nd phase- But it is facing major problem in Its Mainpuri-Kannauj-Etawa belt where Shivpal and rebels are making life difficult- adding to all this are highly unpopular sitting MLAs from his party-
Early trends suggest following keypoints-
1-Muslims are consolidating behind SP+Congress(however they vote for BSP wherever it has greater chance of beating BJP)-
2-Mayavati is rising from what all people thought- you may have noticed her soft corner for Shivpal in various speeches- She may gain the most from infighting in the Mainpuri-Kannauj-Etawa Belt- Even Modi is rushing to Kannauj out of scheduled plan because every one sees a chance there which should have been a clean sweep for SP-
3- Non-Yadav OBCs are strongly uniting behind BJP-
PS: Interesting trends coming from 4th and 5th phase too- This is not as clear as 2014 as of now no one can claim victory-
Interesting observation by Barkha Dutt's website-
https://www.thequint.com/uttar-prad...st-up-will-bjp-repeat-2014-election-landslide