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Yes no chance that the IAF will look to get used Mirages.
The Jaguar airframes acquired from Oman and France are being used as donors.
Even the MiG-29 being acquired are said to be zero hour airframes.
IIRC the IAF was looking at the Brazilian Mirages keenly as they had a load of hours on them but a private company got them for pocket change.
Looking at the likely scenario in the neighborhood, the tempo of ops will be high, especially wrt the North.
JASDF/ROCAF see a massive amount of scrambles and rapid wear in airframe hours.
Direction is similar for us IMO.
Next 10 years will see the IAF add 150+ jets, except for the 21 MiGs, all else will be new.
 
Yes no chance that the IAF will look to get used Mirages.
The Jaguar airframes acquired from Oman and France are being used as donors.
Even the MiG-29 being acquired are said to be zero hour airframes.
IIRC the IAF was looking at the Brazilian Mirages keenly as they had a load of hours on them but a private company got them for pocket change.
Looking at the likely scenario in the neighborhood, the tempo of ops will be high, especially wrt the North.
JASDF/ROCAF see a massive amount of scrambles and rapid wear in airframe hours.
Direction is similar for us IMO.
Next 10 years will see the IAF add 150+ jets, except for the 21 MiGs, all else will be new.

150 more in 10 years? Realistically?

Tejas production is still only 8 aircraft per year right (and this year they will miss that target it seems). I would say 100 Tejas in the next 10 years is mire realistic (and that is being very optimistic). A Rafale to up buy on top of that (say another 50 planes) is a possibility but that needs to be done soon and also money will be short for next 2-3 years considering India's economy.

Also in that timeframe you will also need to replace the Jaguars. Even with a limited upgrade they are on their last legs.

Deficit in fighter is set to actually increase, not decrease.
 
150 more in 10 years? Realistically?

Tejas production is still only 8 aircraft per year right (and this year they will miss that target it seems). I would say 100 Tejas in the next 10 years is mire realistic (and that is being very optimistic). A Rafale to up buy on top of that (say another 50 planes) is a possibility but that needs to be done soon and also money will be short for next 2-3 years considering India's economy.

Also in that timeframe you will also need to replace the Jaguars. Even with a limited upgrade they are on their last legs.

Deficit in fighter is set to actually increase, not decrease.

83 Tejas Mk1As are to be delivered by 2027-28. There's 31 Rafales to be delivered as well. Plus 21 MiG-29UPGs and 12 Su-30MKIs. That all takes the numbers to 147 for confirmed orders.

In fact, Tejas Mk2 will also begin to be delivered within this decade, so the numbers will be higher.

As for your expectation related to Tejas deliveries, it doesn't really matter what you believe. HAL is moving more towards becoming an integrator and with private sector companies starting to supply forward, mid and aft fuselage modules, the speed of deliveries is going to increase. There is a new assembly line for Tejas trainers coming up as well. 16 per year is going to happen for sure, but it may go up to 20 per year.
 
83 Tejas Mk1As are to be delivered by 2027-28. There's 31 Rafales to be delivered as well. Plus 21 MiG-29UPGs and 12 Su-30MKIs. That all takes the numbers to 147 for confirmed orders.

In fact, Tejas Mk2 will also begin to be delivered within this decade, so the numbers will be higher.

As for your expectation related to Tejas deliveries, it doesn't really matter what you believe. HAL is moving more towards becoming an integrator and with private sector companies starting to supply forward, mid and aft fuselage modules, the speed of deliveries is going to increase. There is a new assembly line for Tejas trainers coming up as well. 16 per year is going to happen for sure, but it may go up to 20 per year.

Not a case of what I believe or even what you believe, "16 a year is going to happen for sure", when to total deliveries as of now are how many? 16? After 10 years of production?

In 2017 HAL promised 123 Tejas by 2024.

Please carry on just living in fantasy land.


21 MIGs and 12 SU-30 contract still not signed, so this may not even happen.

As usual you are going around obtaining best case future projections and trying to pass them off as on the ground facts. So lets look at worse case scenario as HAL always seems to come out worse off than it's predictions.

Reality right now for Indian Air Force is

Tejas = At current rates only 80 aircraft in next 10 years
Rafale = Just two squadrons

Total = 116 planes

Contract for extra MIG-29s and SU-30s STLL NOT SIGNED.


Due for retirement in next 10 years

MIG-21 = 54
Jaguar = 118

Total = 162 planes

So Basically unless HAL sorts itself by end of decade IAF will of shrunk even further (by two squadrons). This does not even take into account attrition, which over the last 10 years has averaged 10 planes per year. That is another 100 planes in next 10 years, so deficit goes to

162 planes being retired + 100 attrition = 262 planes.

With only 116 being inducted.

Hence possible case where IAF is 144 planes (7 squadrons) short. In essence IAF size becomes just 22 Fighter squadrons. Around same size as PAF.
 
Not all Jags will retire before 2030.
Last Jags to come out of HAL were in 2007/08.
Assuming another 18 Rafale before 2023, 91 Tejas (73 Mk-1A and 18 trainers) , 21 MiG-29 Upgrade, 12 Su-30 MKIs and 10-15 MRFA, we get to 150 or thereabout.
We will be sure about the numbers only after they materialize.
 
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Not all Jags will retire before 2030.
Last Jags to come out of HAL were in 2007/08.
Assuming another 18 Rafale before 2023, 91 Tejas (83 Mk-1A and 8 trainers) , 21 MiG-29 Upgrade, 12 Su-30 MKIs and 10-15 MRFA, we get to 150 or thereabout.
We will be sure about the numbers only after they materialize.

You cannot be certain of any follow on order for Rafale for sure, not under current financial circumstances.
Unsure how IAF would continue to be sole operator of Jaguar for another 10 years and (as it currently stands) will be flying the most outdated aircraft in Asia by then. in 2030 almost every PAF/PLAAF aircraft may well have AESA and advanced EW. Unsure if Jaguars would last 5 minutes. Also, with every passing year that goes by Jaguar operations become more hard to maintain and more expensive, especially as every single spare part will actually have to be built from scratch or current fleet will be cannablised.
 
Jags will be operational and they will be potent.
The engines are common to the Hawk(most sections), HAL built the jets so lots of local know how for the platform.The weapons fit is already mostly inducted (The ASRAAM/CBU-105/Harpoons)
 
Jags will be operational and they will be potent.
The engines are common to the Hawk(most sections), HAL built the jets so lots of local know how for the platform.The weapons fit is already mostly inducted (The ASRAAM/CBU-105/Harpoons)

I am not saying it cannot be done (HAL is doing it), but will become increasingly expensive per flight hour in order to run a plane that by 2030 will be considered far from "potent" in a modern war.

Essentially it remains under powered, has not self contained EW/Jamming capability or BVR capability. It will have to be escorted by other jets (like the SU-30 or Mirage) that are faster, have longer range and can carry more, so any combined air operations will be limited by Jaguars range and speed. Additionally to have an aircraft that is not networked with AEW or other platforms in modern war is suicide. IAF learnt this on Feb 27th. Had that MIG-21 had secure data link it may of survived.

Jaguars have been reliable and useful but there is a very good reason that no one else uses them now or has chosen to upgrade them. 2030 and Jaguar will be far far far from "potent" my friend
 
Due for retirement in next 10 years

MIG-21 = 54
Jaguar = 118

Total = 162 planes
Completely wrong claim as IAF chief himself has confirmed 4 months back that-
"Jaguar fleet is expected to operate well beyond 2035 with its upgraded avionics, sensors and EW (electronic warfare)”, he said.

Tejas = At current rates only 80 aircraft in next 10 years
Again wrong.
HAL will deliver 70 Tejas aircraft by 2026 as per IAF chief himself.


Infact HAL CMD himself stated HAL will increase production to 16 aircraft in this fiscal year itself. HAL also plans to increase it to 20 Tejas aircraft per year by the time MK1A starts rolling out in late 2023.


 
Not a case of what I believe or even what you believe, "16 a year is going to happen for sure", when to total deliveries as of now are how many? 16? After 10 years of production?

In 2017 HAL promised 123 Tejas by 2024.

Please carry on just living in fantasy land.


21 MIGs and 12 SU-30 contract still not signed, so this may not even happen.

As usual you are going around obtaining best case future projections and trying to pass them off as on the ground facts. So lets look at worse case scenario as HAL always seems to come out worse off than it's predictions.

Reality right now for Indian Air Force is

Tejas = At current rates only 80 aircraft in next 10 years
Rafale = Just two squadrons

Total = 116 planes

Contract for extra MIG-29s and SU-30s STLL NOT SIGNED.


Due for retirement in next 10 years

MIG-21 = 54
Jaguar = 118

Total = 162 planes

So Basically unless HAL sorts itself by end of decade IAF will of shrunk even further (by two squadrons). This does not even take into account attrition, which over the last 10 years has averaged 10 planes per year. That is another 100 planes in next 10 years, so deficit goes to

162 planes being retired + 100 attrition = 262 planes.

With only 116 being inducted.

Hence possible case where IAF is 144 planes (7 squadrons) short. In essence IAF size becomes just 22 Fighter squadrons. Around same size as PAF.
Production started in 2016, why do you share false info to exaggerate as a propaganda against Your favourite target Tejas?
 
Completely wrong claim as IAF chief himself has confirmed 4 months back that-
"Jaguar fleet is expected to operate well beyond 2035 with its upgraded avionics, sensors and EW (electronic warfare)”, he said.


Again wrong.
HAL will deliver 70 Tejas aircraft by 2026 as per IAF chief himself.


Infact HAL CMD himself stated HAL will increase production to 16 aircraft in this fiscal year itself. HAL also plans to increase it to 20 Tejas aircraft per year by the time MK1A starts rolling out in late 2023.



As I said, what HAL state and what HAL delivered are two very different things. If I go back 10 years and read out IAF chief statements and the reality 10 years later world of difference. 10 years ago IAF chief was telling India they would have 114 MRCA aircraft, what happened there? Or to the 6 MRTT A330 Refuellers?
Or the 50 CN-235 transport planes? Or the PAK-FA Stealth jets?

HAL has a well established reuptation for frequently missing delivery targets of projects, this is acorss almost every major programme it has conducted.

HAL has produced 16 Tejas in last 10 years but will make 70 in next 5 years? I am sceptical.

With regards to Jaguar, no major upgrade is even approved yet, so going by IAF chief, this will be designed, tested, implemented just in time for them to be phased out?
Production started in 2016, why do you share false info to exaggerate as a propaganda against Your favourite target Tejas?

Limited Serial Production started in 2007. Please stick to reality not things you WANT to believe are true.
 
HAL has a well established reuptation for frequently missing delivery targets of projects, this is acorss almost every major programme it has conducted.

HAL has produced 16 Tejas in last 10 years but will make 70 in next 5 years? I am sceptical
Wrong again my boy.
Mighty HAL has achieved most targets. It has rolled out 222 Sukhois in 15 yrs with 112 built from raw materials and has also produced 281 Dhruv helicopters in just 14 yrs.
70 is peanuts for an org as gargantuan as HAL, only reason that HAL Tejas production was low before was there were very few orders and Tejas did not get FOC before 2019 (CEMILAC does not allow full scale production of non FOC aircraft). That is no longer issue now as there are enough orders and FOC

Also IAF has already got the first Jaguar Darin III (total 56 on order)
Limited Serial Production started in 2007. Please stick to reality not things you WANT to believe are true.
Not a single LSP jet belonged to IAF. They were for internal testing for HAL and ADA only. IAF specific Tejas was rolled out in 2016
 
Wrong again my boy.
Mighty HAL has achieved most targets. It has rolled out 222 Sukhois in 15 yrs with 112 built from raw materials and has also produced 281 Dhruv helicopters in just 14 yrs.
70 is peanuts for an org as gargantuan as HAL, only reason that HAL Tejas production was low before was there were very few orders and Tejas did not get FOC before 2019 (CEMILAC does not allow full scale production of non FOC aircraft). That is no longer issue now as there are enough orders and FOC

Also IAF has already got the first Jaguar Darin III (total 56 on order)

Not a single LSP jet belonged to IAF. They were for internal testing for HAL and ADA only. IAF specific Tejas was rolled out in 2016

HAL has missed every major Tejas milestone it set itself and the IAF set it, You know this and are lying.

Play with words and numbers all you want. 2007 is when it started making LCA, whatever use they were for. Even if we go by your 2016 number that is just 4 planes every year, but you expect 70 by 2026!?

This is pure delusion.

HAL promised

" On 26 February 2016, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said in the Lok Sabha that the Indian Air Force would accept 3–4 Tejas (IOC version) that year and eventually stand up a total of 8 squadrons within 8 years "

You have just over 3 years to deliver another 6.5 full combat squadrons. You have 1.5 squadrons now and it has been 4 years since Parrikar's statement and HALs promise.

Good luck.....
 
HAL has missed every major Tejas milestone it set itself and the IAF set it, You know this and are lying.
HAL has not missed any milestones for Tejas since 2016-17
You have just over 3 years to deliver another 6.5 full combat squadrons. You have 1.5 squadrons now and it has been 4 years since Parrikar's statement and HALs promise.
Tejas order has been reduced to 6 squadrons now as we are getting 21 Zhuk AESA equipped MiG-29 from Russia and anotger 12 Su-30. Deal will be signed next month as Putin himself is coming running to India to sign these deals in 3rd week of November. Quote me on this then.
HAL successfully met all targets for Su-30 production rate, it will do the same for Tejas (manufacturing Tejas is far easier than much larger and complex Su-30).
 
HAL has not missed any milestones for Tejas since 2016-17

Tejas order has been reduced to 6 squadrons now as we are getting 21 Zhuk AESA equipped MiG-29 from Russia and anotger 12 Su-30. Deal will be signed next month as Putin himself is coming running to India to sign these deals in 3rd week of November. Quote me on this then.
HAL successfully met all targets for Su-30 production rate, it will do the same for Tejas (manufacturing Tejas is far easier than much larger and complex Su-30).

So already Tejas order reduced before production even started? Assembling SU-30s is very different from home manufacturing your own plan, are you able to understand this. "boy"!?

HAL missed several dates for FOC capability over last 3 years. Sees like you know less about Tejas than I do. Looks like you just cannot accept reality that even rest if India has.

" Despite the lapse of over 32 years since to project was given the formal go-ahead by the government, the time line for the grant of final operational clearance (FOC) which was originally scheduled for 2008, cannot as yet be predicted with any degree of certainty. "




  1. LCA was to be inducted in 1994 but it suffered a delay of more than three decades before the first version of Tejas was given Initial Operational Clearance ( IOC).

  2. The IOC initially achieved in Dec 2013 was with 53 concessions /permanent waivers.

  3. The self-protection jammer which was to be fitted in Tejas Mk 1 could not be realised. It is now planned for Tejas Mk II version.

  4. There were delays from the IAF side in identifying the weapon package to make the LCA contemporary and huge delays by various work centres under ADA and HAL, which added to the overall delay.

  5. As against the claimed 70% indigenous content, more than half have been developed with imported electronic components.

  6. Major challenges have been faced in development of indigenous engine (Kaveri), multi-mode radar, self-protection jammer and more.

  7. The Mk 1 version of the aircraft fell short on many counts like the user requirement of a trainer aircraft, inadequate electronic warfare capability, performance sub-optimalities related to the functioning of radar warning receiver, missile approach warning system, weight specifications, inadequate protection to pilot from front side, under powered engines and so on.

  8. It was intimated by the HAL and ADA that most of the above shortcomings will be addressed in the upgraded version of Tejas called Mk 1A ( interim version) and a subsequently advanced Tejas Mk 2 which will be developed as a Medium weight Fighter aircraft.

  9. In order to keep the programme going, IAF ( out of its total demand of 324 aircrafts) agreed to accept no more than 40 aircrafts as Mk 1. The balance 83 (out of the initial order of 123) were to be Mk 1A while the rest were to be Mk 2.




In July 2018, the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) found “53 significant shortfalls” in the Mark-I version of the Tejas (weaponised version), which “had reduced its operational capabilities and survivability”.



"HAL has not left the IAF pleased with the way LCA project kept getting delayed and multiple deadlines that kept getting missed. IAF Chief has not minced words about it. "



IAF Chief Dhanoa in 2019


“IAF has not shifted any goal posts as alleged,” Dhanoa said, according to The Hindu. “The development has taken such an incredibly long time that armament and technology has gone obsolete… I as the service chief can make concessions to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. Will the enemy make concessions to me when I go and meet the enemy? In combat, there is no silver medal. Either you win or you lose.”

The air force chief said upgrading of one sqaudron of Jaguar deep strike bombers, one squadron of Mirage-2000 and two squadrons of Su-30MKi was far behind the schedule. “Additional production of Su-30 is delayed by over two years and LCA production commitment [has been delayed] by over six years,” he said, according to the Hindustan Times."



Please let me know if you need another lesson in Tejas history, happy to oblige.
 

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