India will be world's 3rd largest economy by 2030

[Holmes]

India will be world's 3rd largest economy by 2030
PTI | Feb 27, 2012, 01.53PM IST

NEW DELHI: India will be world's third largest economy by 2030 but its energy demand will slow down to 4.5 per cent, global energy giant BP plc (one of the world's leading international oil and gas companies) said today.

"By 2030 China and India will be the world's largest and third largest economies and energy consumers, jointly accounting for about 35 per cent of global population, GDP and energy demand," BP's chief economist Christof Ruhl said releasing BP's Energy Outlook 2030.

There would be "no surge in energy demand as India industrialises. Demand growth slows to 4.5 per cent per annum (vs. 5.5 per cent p.a. in 1999-2010) as improvements in energy efficiency partly offset the energy needs of industrialisation and infrastructure expansion."

India's dependence on imports to meet its gas needs will jump to 47 per cent by 2030 while the same for oil will grow to 91 per cent. The nation will be 40 per cent dependent on imports to meet its coal needs.

He said India remains on a lower path of energy intensity; by 2030 it consumes only about half the energy that China consumes today, at a similar income per capita level as in China today.

Over the next 20 years China and India combined account for all the net increase in global coal demand, 94 per cent of net oil demand growth, 30 per cent of gas, and 48 per cent of the net growth in non-fossil fuels.

Coal remains the main commercial fuel, but its share falls from 70 per cent to 55 per cent in China as a result of maturing industrial structure, and from 53 per cent to 50 per cent in India due to domestic resource constraints.

Oil's share is flat at 18 per cent in China and falls to 26 per cent in India, constrained by prices and growing import dependency. Gas gains market share along with nuclear and renewables in both countries, BP said.

In India, the share of industry continues to grow, as infrastructure development catches up and manufacturing expands to absorb a growing labour force, but it never reaches the Chinese level. "India therefore remains significantly less energy intensive, with a relatively high share of the service sector in GDP."
India will be world's 3rd largest economy by 2030 - The Times of India


We are already the Third Largest Economy by GDP (PPP) in 2012 that is...

 

[IndoCarib]

These parts are important:

"He said India remains on a lower path of energy intensity; by 2030 it consumes only about half the energy that China consumes today, at a similar income per capita level as in China today.

"India therefore remains significantly less energy intensive, with a relatively high share of the service sector in GDP."

To develop, a country doesn't have to be energy intensive. We should not go the China way

 

[Deepak123]

Troll fest is about to come.

 

[Holmes]

Our economy has huge share on service sector unlike China's manufacturing power, which need a lot.. i mean A LOT of Energy... Also means less pollution for us....comparatively.

 

[zip]

It is really sad that we lagged behind china .there is no alternative for hard work .i appreciate chinese for that.the article points that they are two decades ahead of us in development ..
No worries we are slow but on right path ..if not us our children will see a developed country

 

[God of Death]

Its a reality, India is already:

- 9th largest economy in the world.

- 9th Largest manufacturer in the world.

But, Envious and inferiority complex trolls will flood this thread soon.

 

[shiv]

Dunno about energy intensity but Delhi can still be called as a garden city in-spite of rampant construction taking place.

As regards to 2030 saying, if it is really true, then we should not really care right ? after all our destiny awaits us.

But if it false, then who gives a damn. We forged ahead from strength to strength when we had USA against us, when we were feeding ourselves from ship to mouth, when we were going through wars after every 5 years, when our life expectancy was 32 years, when majority were illiterate, when we had no milk to feed... I am sure we will do just fine.

---------- Post added at 07:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:49 PM ----------

Dunno about energy intensity but Delhi can still be called as a garden city in-spite of rampant construction taking place.

As regards to 2030 saying, if it is really true, then we should not really care right ? after all our destiny awaits us.

But if it false, then who gives a damn. We forged ahead from strength to strength when we had USA against us, when we were feeding ourselves from ship to mouth, when we were going through wars after every 5 years, when our life expectancy was 32 years, when majority were illiterate, when we had no milk to feed... I am sure we will do just fine.

 

[Wet Shirt Contest]

I think when india would be number 3rd in economy and 3rd in military power, than INDIA would really be 3rd class country in this world for living , because poverty goes up as india grows . what a pity my neighbour!!!!!!!!!

@Troll - ThankYou For Your Valuable Input....You Should Go Back To Sleep Now.

@Topic - Good To See My Country Is Rapidly Developing....We'll Reclaim Our Position. Jai Hind Jai Bharat

 

[OrionHunter]

We are already the Third Largest Economy by GDP (PPP) in 2012 that is...

But that really doesn't mean a fig to the poor and hungry! We are heading to be the third largest economy but with the largest poor! What an irony and a tragedy! Politicians, Corporates, and the bureaucrats are sucking this country dry. A trillion dollars siphoned off into tax havens abroad while the poor in places like Kalahandi survive on tree roots and weeds!

Are you proud of that? These cliches like being called the third largest economy, the fastest growing economy and so on ad infinitum is plain twaddle. It means squat for 40% of Indians who continue to live below the poverty line. Sleeping on footpaths, railway tracks, under fly overs and public parks waiting for a few crumbs the next day working their a$$es off on menial jobs for a living doesn't make us an economic super power by a long shot!

Just look at the f!lth on the roads and footpaths in Metro cities like Bangalore, Chennai, Calcutta. By the looks of it, India is even worse than sub Saharan Africa on many counts! When all that moolah doesn't translate to inclusivity, where the rich become richer and the poor poorer, we need to hang our heads in shame and not shout from the rooftops that we are becoming the third largest economy.

In other words, this means squat to the majority of Indians. Enough of ranting for the day. Carry on.....

 

[shiv]

But that really doesn't mean a fig to the poor and hungry! We are heading to be the third largest economy but with the largest poor! What an irony and a tragedy! Politicians, Corporates, and the bureaucrats are sucking this country dry. A trillion dollars siphoned off into tax havens abroad while the poor in places like Kalahandi survive on tree roots and weeds!

Are you proud of that? These cliches like being called the third largest economy, the fastest growing economy and so on ad infinitum is plain twaddle. It means squat for 40% of Indians who continue to live below the poverty line. Sleeping on footpaths, railway tracks, under fly overs and public parks waiting for a few crumbs the next day working their a$$es off on menial jobs for a living doesn't make us an economic super power by a long shot!

Just look at the f!lth on the roads and footpaths in Metro cities like Bangalore, Chennai, Calcutta. By the looks of it, India is even worse than sub Saharan Africa on many counts! When all that moolah doesn't translate to inclusivity, where the rich become richer and the poor poorer, we need to hang our heads in shame and not shout from the rooftops that we are becoming the third largest economy.

In other words, this means squat to the majority of Indians. Enough of ranting for the day. Carry on.....

Relax mate. See, long ago when we had got independence, for the first 3 decades India was doing like 3% GDP growth. Since hindus were in majority and with so much anarchy, many economists from other countries termed it as Hindu rate of growth. Those lame a$$ economists tried to put us down by trying to hurt our confidence which is so much needed for a vastly poor and newly independent country like India.

Still we have the same anarchy and nearly same demographics but we are doing 8% gdp growth YoY. So, those lame voices have been silenced...

What you said is absolutely right but we also have so many things going for us. Contrast the days when we had to mortgage our gold to buy wheat now we have more than 300bn $$ of foreign reserves and we export wheat/rice. Iran is almost entirely dependent on Indian rice for food.

And there are so many people who will like to put us down by showing things which are bad. We should heed them but not be overwhelmed by them.

So, buddy sound a bit more optimistic from next time. will Help u lead a cheerful life.

 

[Holmes]

Education is the way forward for poverty eradication.
That day when when more people escape the poverty we'll be #1.

 

[airuah]

Education is the way forward for poverty eradication.
That day when when more people escape the poverty we'll be #1.

true....even if we are not having the highest GDP or anything at that time....once we get porverty out through education we are no.1 irrespective of what the gdp charts say

 

[AHMED85]

But India need some oil and Gas for sustain in industrial growth ...

so what is the solution you considering for that

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

But that really doesn't mean a fig to the poor and hungry! We are heading to be the third largest economy but with the largest poor! What an irony and a tragedy! Politicians, Corporates, and the bureaucrats are sucking this country dry. A trillion dollars siphoned off into tax havens abroad while the poor in places like Kalahandi survive on tree roots and weeds!

Are you proud of that? These cliches like being called the third largest economy, the fastest growing economy and so on ad infinitum is plain twaddle. It means squat for 40% of Indians who continue to live below the poverty line. Sleeping on footpaths, railway tracks, under fly overs and public parks waiting for a few crumbs the next day working their a$$es off on menial jobs for a living doesn't make us an economic super power by a long shot!

Just look at the f!lth on the roads and footpaths in Metro cities like Bangalore, Chennai, Calcutta. By the looks of it, India is even worse than sub Saharan Africa on many counts! When all that moolah doesn't translate to inclusivity, where the rich become richer and the poor poorer, we need to hang our heads in shame and not shout from the rooftops that we are becoming the third largest economy.




In other words, this means squat to the majority of Indians. Enough of ranting for the day. Carry on.....

Pessimists like you will make sure India remains where it is with this usual nothing is happening BS .

do you know the rate of poverty reduction that India has achieved in the last few years ? Do you not agree that it is one of the fastest in the world and that our HDI is also growing reasonably rapidly ?

The world bank days our poverty of 40% is estimated to fall down to 22 % in 2015 , by 2030 i am sure we will be doing even better .

GDP growth never goes a waste . That has been the world's experience .

even if lets say Indian inequality increases a lot , what will it make India look like 20 years hence ? something like Brazil ( high income inequality)?

I would still say Brazil is much better off than india right now is , so i will take that anyday .

Stop trashing Indian growth rate at every chance you get . The changes are there and they are visible . Just to remind you we eradicated polio last year and infant mortality went down below 50 per 1000 this year for the first time in history . Go figure .

.

 

[HongWu]

Congratulations, so many people in your country demand a higher standard of living.