India to be $5.6 trillion economy by 2020

[ashokdeiva]

^I think you will find more eyes n ears on a greenpeace site. defense enthusiasts might not pay much attention to your very valid points

The problem is that with the stock pile of weapons that we have in our hand we can destroy the planet n number of times and US is not going to a war with Russia and neither are we going to a war with Pakistan. we are just spending money to keep the hype alive so that tay payers money is used for a few peoples luxry life and deposits in swiz banks accounts.
weather its defence enthusiasit or green peace activist, we have to acknowledge the fact the the human species have become a plague to the planet not maintaining the equilibrium with the nature.

 

[Jade]

When Dun & Bradstreet calculated the economy to be $5.6 tn, they seems to have taken inflation into consideration.

 

[rcrmj]

lets leave this for 2020``its gonna be fun`now close the thread

 

[aladin123]

So we all know that the nominal growth rate is greater than the real growth rate. But really, what real good is the use of the nominal growth rate? If we go about using those figures for measuring the size of the economy, then the next 9 years for Pakistan would grow it at a nominal rate of almost 20% (as compared to India's 14-15%) every year; faster than India going by the nominal growth rates, because 14% of it would be the inflation %. So the nominal growth rate isn't really that important for measuring the size of the economy. I hope you understanding what I'm saying, & I'm not trolling!

I think ..... high inflation can ruin a country because price of commodities will be out of hand of customers ... but standard 2-6% inflation is good because it rise the price of commodities allowing money flow to the poors like farmers etc and helpful to create middle class ... (I may be wrong ..... I am not economist).

 

[rollindays]

I think ..... high inflation can ruin a country because price of commodities will be out of hand of customers ... but standard 2-6% inflation is good because it rise the price of commodities allowing money flow to the poors like farmers etc and helpful to create middle class ... (I may be wrong ..... I am not economist).

Precisely. Which is why the real growth rate is better than nominal growth rate for measuring the size of the economy.

 

[ashokdeiva]

I think ..... high inflation can ruin a country because price of commodities will be out of hand of customers ... but standard 2-6% inflation is good because it rise the price of commodities allowing money flow to the poors like farmers etc and helpful to create middle class ... (I may be wrong ..... I am not economist).

what you said is a billion dollar statement. but the present setup and policies of the government is in favour of the corporate industries and not interested in the well fare of poor.

 

[Maritimer]

Precisely. Which is why the real growth rate is better than nominal growth rate for measuring the size of the economy.

Real growth rate is good only for indicating how much the economy has grown after adjusting for inflation. The size of the economy is normally compared using purchasing power parity. India's GDP on PPP basis was $4 trillion in 2010 and is likely to cross $5 trillion in 2012-13.

The Dun & Bradstreet estimate seems to be a realistic one. India's nominal GDP for current fiscal year 2011-12 as per government budget estimates is $2 trillion. If India grows at real rate of 8-9% with inflation at 4-5%, currency appreciation of 1-2% every year, nominal GDP will hit 5 to 6 trillion by 2020. These numbers match with the average rates for the last 8 years, so there is no reason to believe that this cannot be achieved for the next 9 years.

 

[Abhishek_]

^wow quite a few holes in your comment.
A) Kids use PPP as a measurement standard for economies.
B)govt budget estimates has been wrong more times than I can recall
C)Inflation at 4-5%, are you effing kidding me?

Believe me, I would love to see us cross $5trillion GDP by 2020, but the factors indicate a different story.

 

[Maritimer]

^wow quite a few holes in your comment.
A) Kids use PPP as a measurement standard for economies.
B)govt budget estimates has been wrong more times than I can recall
C)Inflation at 4-5%, are you effing kidding me?

Believe me, I would love to see us cross $5trillion GDP by 2020, but the factors indicate a different story.

Can you please enlighten these factors?

a) I don't think IMF and World bank are kids and they do publish PPP for international comparison, simply because the market exchange rates rates do not reflect the cost of living in local economies.
b) Government budget estimates may not be spot on for current year, but seems realistic. India will be a INR 90 trillion economy in 2011-12. I would like to know what is your estimate for India's nominal GDP for current fiscal year.
c) I was being conservative with the inflation number at 4-5%, if the inflation rates are going to be higher according to you, then we will have a $5trillion economy much sooner than 2020.
Thnx

 

[rollindays]

Can you please enlighten these factors?

a) I don't think IMF and World bank are kids and they do publish PPP for international comparison, simply because the market exchange rates rates do not reflect the cost of living in local economies.
b) Government budget estimates may not be spot on for current year, but seems realistic. India will be a INR 90 trillion economy in 2011-12. I would like to know what is your estimate for India's nominal GDP for current fiscal year.
c) I was being conservative with the inflation number at 4-5%, if the inflation rates are going to be higher according to you, then we will have a $5trillion economy much sooner than 2020.
Thnx

Again, a high inflation rate (done by devaluing the currency purposely, or by printing more money) can show an extremely high nominal GDP growth, but that does not necessarily mean the economy has grown to that extent, or even close to it. Hence, it is a poor indicator for how much the economy has grown, & it is not even a good indicator of the size of the economy. The real GDP growth is the way to go.

 

[Abhishek_]

a) IMF and WB both use nominal GDP values when it comes to any type of international research and analysis. PPP values are published as well but they are guesstimates at best.
b) rolling and I have already posted our estimates of 2020 GDP levels.
c)Inflation is much higher right now with no signs of any significant slowdowns. By that measure you are only looking at high nominal growth levels, not the real one. In order to measure the social development levels, you need to look at real growth numbers.

 

[Jade]

Again, a high inflation rate (done by devaluing the currency purposely, or by printing more money) can show an extremely high nominal GDP growth, but that does not necessarily mean the economy has grown to that extent, or even close to it. Hence, it is a poor indicator for how much the economy has grown, & it is not even a good indicator of the size of the economy. The real GDP growth is the way to go.

Yes real GDP is a better measure than nominal one, but Nominal GDP is used. $15 tn US economy is nominal GDP so is China's $ 5 tn

 

[Abhishek_]

Yes real GDP is a better measure than nominal one, but Nominal GDP is used. $15 tn US economy is nominal GDP so is China's $ 5 tn

Yes but real GDP has no meaning by itself. It has meaning only when compared to GDP of a different year

^jade you're mixing real growth numbers with real gdp. real gdp=nominal gdp.
dont mix it with GDP PPP

Nominal GDP (Trillion)
US: 15
China: 5
India: 1.73

 

[Jade]

a) IMF and WB both use nominal GDP values when it comes to any type of international research and analysis. PPP values are published as well but they are guesstimates at best.
b) rolling and I have already posted our estimates of 2020 GDP levels.
c)Inflation is much higher right now with no signs of any significant slowdowns. By that measure you are only looking at high nominal growth levels, not the real one. In order to measure the social development levels, you need to look at real growth numbers.

Yes but real GDP has no meaning by itself. It has meaning only when compared to GDP of a different year

 

[gulte]

Nominal GDP is for stupids, the right measurement of GDP has always been PPP. Real GDP doesn't consider inflation into account, where as in case of PPP its not the case.