India to be $5.6 trillion economy by 2020

[vijayjha]

Can someone explain to me what average GDP growth rate % has been assumed for the next 9 years?

I selected an average GDP growth rate of 10% for the next 9 years, & did a little calculation:

GDP nominal of India for 2011: $1.73 trillion

10% of $1.73 trillion is $0.173 trillion.

Hence:

1.73 + 9(0.173) = $3.287 trillion in 2020

Even when I used an average 15% GDP growth rate for the next 9 years, the GDP for 2020 came out to be $4.066 trillion.

There must be some other way to calculate this. Can someone show me how they got the $5.6 trillion economy number by 2020?

no offence dude but i hope u are not from mathematics or science background because if u r its really a shock how u calculate the indian GDP for 2020
what u did , it means that india is adding $0.173 trillion. to its economy which is 10 % of GDP in 2011 but once added its not 10% any more so next 10% will be more than $0.173 trillion.
i hope u understand

 

[rollindays]

no offence dude but i hope u are not from mathematics or science background because if u r its really a shock how u calculate the indian GDP for 2020
what u did , it means that india is adding $0.173 trillion. to its economy which is 10 % of GDP in 2011 but once added its not 10% any more so next 10% will be more than $0.173 trillion.
i hope u understand

see post # 17 & my posts after that.

 

[Storm Force]

Regardless of whether INDIA reaches $3.5 trillion or $5,6 trillion. BY 2020

what we all know is that by 2020 IE 9 years time INDIA will probably overtake canada Itlay FrANCE & uk to become 5th or 6th largest GDP nation on earth.

IT WILL NOT ERRIDICATE poverty BUT IT WILL HAVE heavey financial & military muscle in GLOBAL politics.

no matter how you dress this down WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A MAJOR NATION in 2020

 

[jdme]

Since I think no one added this:

GDP growth = Actual growth + inflation +/- currency fluctuation.

 

[great]

You cannot compare countries based on real GDP's. If you can, I would like to know real GDP's of US, and China. Countries are compared based on nominal GDP's. Because of the inflation, India is closing its gap between PPP and nominal GDP's. India's nominal GDP is at 1.75 trillion. Real growth rate for next ten years on average expected be about 8-9% and inflation on average estimated be about 5-6%. So the nominal growth rate per year is 13-15%. My guess would be 14% a year. Not considering currency appreciation here which could add 2-3% to nominal GDP.

Like I said before, Inflation would cut down the difference between India's nominal and PPP GDP. Current PPP to nominal GDP ratio is about 2.3. It would come down to 2 or slightly less by 2020. So India's PPP GDP in 2020 would be close $10-11 trillion.

Inflation is a side effect for every developing country. But if India keeps growing in real terms at 9%, there's not much to worry about. I believe a country developing at a faster pace could sustain an high inflation provided growth rate is higher than the inflation rate. I really worry about Pakistan, with its less than 2% growth rate and 15-16% inflation, means that lot more people are thrown into poverty.

 

[jdme]

9 % growth and 6% inflation means only 3% increase in purchasing power. So even though GDP is growing at 15%, purchasing power is growing at 20% of that. It's the purchasing power that we truly need to to boost.

 

[NeutralCitizen]

Interesting the Indian Economy is 1-5-1-8 Trillion, the Chinese Economy is 6 trillion +, they Project the Chinese Economy will overtake the US economy by 2016-2017, so by 2020 the Indian economy will be 5.6 while the Chinese economy is rumored to exceed the 20 trillion dollar mark.

 

[Dharmachakra]

Can someone explain to me what average GDP growth rate % has been assumed for the next 9 years?

I selected an average GDP growth rate of 10% for the next 9 years, & did a little calculation:

GDP nominal of India for 2011: $1.73 trillion

10% of $1.73 trillion is $0.173 trillion.

Hence:

1.73 + 9(0.173) = $3.287 trillion in 2020

Even when I used an average 15% GDP growth rate for the next 9 years, the GDP for 2020 came out to be $4.066 trillion.

There must be some other way to calculate this. Can someone show me how they got the $5.6 trillion economy number by 2020?

You math works for only when one year period is taken into account, but not for N number of years.
As I can see, you certainly dont sound intelligent or either good in math or economics.

I will leave those predictions aside for now, and let me clear some air on your maths.
A banker uses compund interest when N number of years are considered. It means FV(future value)=PV x (1+I)^N.
It means if that 1.73 trillion is considered as Present value the GDP by the end of next 9 years will be little over 4 trillion.

But again,this math works for banking system. And economics is much more complex than just banking and interest rates. It takes both inflation and exchange rate into account.Depends on which FV you are looking at.
I myself always make fun of those predictions, but neverthless, they are usefull in guiding the economy in the right track. These predictions sometimes called as the guard rails of an economy. Many policies are laid forth on the basis of these predictions( which I mean acurate and meaning full ones) All the 5 years plans are laid with emphasis on these.

Now the whole Euro zone is struggling with a meagre 0.1-0.2 % growth, I casts a doubt on the whole world GPD .

P.S: A slightly optimist view here. With the corruption being checked in the next couple of years and killed to death,It means more spending power to the common man and companies. IT also means more savings which means more funds available for infra development. This savings will fill the gap in FDI needed for much Infra and will keep the GDP numbers growing.
IF people like to take my predictions granted, you will see a major shift in the world economic order by 2015.2015 will mark the begining of the new golden age especially for India.We will be marching on our way when we used to dominate the world with 35% GDP some 1000 years ago.

 

[Mo12]

Can someone explain to me what average GDP growth rate % has been assumed for the next 9 years?

I selected an average GDP growth rate of 10% for the next 9 years, & did a little calculation:

GDP nominal of India for 2011: $1.73 trillion

10% of $1.73 trillion is $0.173 trillion.

Hence:

1.73 + 9(0.173) = $3.287 trillion in 2020

Even when I used an average 15% GDP growth rate for the next 9 years, the GDP for 2020 came out to be $4.066 trillion.

There must be some other way to calculate this. Can someone show me how they got the $5.6 trillion economy number by 2020?

Your maths skills is soo terrible, did you learn maths in Pakistan or USA?

 

[conworldus]

Interesting the Indian Economy is 1-5-1-8 Trillion, the Chinese Economy is 6 trillion +, they Project the Chinese Economy will overtake the US economy by 2016-2017, so by 2020 the Indian economy will be 5.6 while the Chinese economy is rumored to exceed the 20 trillion dollar mark.

One thing I am sure about is that I do not want China to reach 20 trillion GDP dollar mark. The world economy is facing a lot of challenge right now and Chinese growth is sure to slow down. China faces a lot of environmental and social challenge, and I wish those issues to be addressed as the first priority. A bubble like growth is just dangerous and unsustainable. I think 5-7% GDP growth should be the norm, not 10%. What I want to see in 10 years, is that China has higher living quality (cleaner cities, stable food price, good service system), education, and innovation. These things are more important than GDP.

 

[NeutralCitizen]

One thing I am sure about is that I do not want China to reach 20 trillion GDP dollar mark. The world economy is facing a lot of challenge right now and Chinese growth is sure to slow down. China faces a lot of environmental and social challenge, and I wish those issues to be addressed as the first priority. A bubble like growth is just dangerous and unsustainable. I think 5-7% GDP growth should be the norm, not 10%. What I want to see in 10 years, is that China has higher living quality (cleaner cities, stable food price, good service system), education, and innovation. These things are more important than GDP.

If china's economy reaches 20 trillion or over it that puts china a good position , yes I know the Concerns, but can you Imagine what you could with an economy of that size ?

 

[desiman]

May be 5.6 trillion rupees economy..India is going to learn maths in 2020..first the obession with beating chinese by 2010..failing that is the new obession of coming up with weekly numbers and years..sort of like a lucky draw..if betting on indian economy growth was a game, i would take the negative everytime and win it too.

With cosistent bad experience in dealing with Indian companies, there is going to be a strong anti-india sterotype in the market..

Seriously you really have no idea what your saying, What negative are you talking about ??????? We are already at 4.4 (ppp) and 1.58(nominal) trillion, what makes you think we can reach 5 trillion by 2020. Pakistanis need to learn how to accept facts and move on. All your post show someone who is burning in jealousy.

 

[conworldus]

If china's economy reaches 20 trillion or over it that puts china a good position , yes I know the Concerns, but can you Imagine what you could with an economy of that size ?

The quality of growth cannot be measured in GDP terms. For instance, if you improve the air quality of Beijing, how much would it be worth? Or, you can put more dirty industry there, which of course shoots up the GDP, but is that a good thing? A balanced growth that's sustainable is better than a breakneck growth that creates imbalance, and thus "bubble", while damaging the environment. A 20 trillion dollar GDP that's not sustainable can fall down to 1 trillion overnight if given an extreme scenario. GDP is one of the measures of a nation's economic strength, but it is not the most important thing.

 

[below_freezing]

The quality of growth cannot be measured in GDP terms. For instance, if you improve the air quality of Beijing, how much would it be worth? Or, you can put more dirty industry there, which of course shoots up the GDP, but is that a good thing? A balanced growth that's sustainable is better than a breakneck growth that creates imbalance, and thus "bubble", while damaging the environment. A 20 trillion dollar GDP that's not sustainable can fall down to 1 trillion overnight if given an extreme scenario. GDP is one of the measures of a nation's economic strength, but it is not the most important thing.

Depends on how you improve it.

Banning cars will reduce the pollution as well as reduce GDP.

Selling electric cars, gas scrubbers, etc. will increase GDP.

 

[rollindays]

Your maths skills is soo terrible, did you learn maths in Pakistan or USA?

I suggest you read my posts after that, it didn't occur to me it was compound interest, stupid on my part. I am more than aware of economics, of inflation, real GDP, GDP (PPP), GDP nominal, & my posts in this thread actually prove that.