India to be $5.6 trillion economy by 2020

[great]

One needs to be realistic as well. China has barely been able to have GDP growth rate % greater than 10% for 3 quarters, from 2009 to 2011. Not to sound patronizing, but India has not even reached the double digit figure once for even a single quarter.

What are you talking about? Real growth would be somewhere at 9% and expected average inflation is about 6% so that makes 15% of nominal growth. Now do the calculations.

I hope you know the difference between Nominal and Real growth rates.

 

[below_freezing]

Do remember that the growth rate reported is REAL growth, but the actual NOMINAL value could be higher. The actual money supply (and nominal GDP) in India, as long as the rupee isn't inflating relative to the dollar (and that's pretty damn easy seeing that the dollar is crashing) the rate of inflation is also added to the real growth.

So India with 5% annual inflation and 10% growth could see the money supply grow at 15%. That's partially why China grew so fast; its not just the straight 10% growth but also the 5% inflation.

 

[Abhishek_]

real growth makes the actual impact on social development, whats the point of having a high nominal growth rate when inflation decimates any real gain.
My suggestion; dont pay much heed to these predictions. Wait for the actual numbers. Too often we have been swayed by false promises.

 

[rollindays]

What are you talking about? Real growth would be somewhere at 9% and expected average inflation is about 6% so that makes 15% of nominal growth. Now do the calculations.

I hope you know the difference between Nominal and Real growth rates.

Of course I know the differences between nominal & real growth rates, but basically, what Abhishek said in Post # 33. The figures I gave you were the GDP annual growth rates broken into quarters. If I change that to the GDP growth rate adjusted by inflation, these are the results that come out:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

On a sidenote though, an assumption of an average GDP growth of 13.9% for the next 9 years is a very skeptical one to be honest, considering the fact that the GDP growth rate for India this year is at 7.8%; considering India's GDP growth rate % has never touched the double digit figure from what I can remember, & was 8.3% for the last quarter of last year.

Mr. Bilal ,

India has been doubling its economy every 5 years inspite of growing at an average of 8 % each year .

India GDP (2002) - around 500 billion dollars
India GDP (2007)- touches 1 trillion dollars
India GDP ( 2012)- expected by most to touch or be very close to touching 2 trillion dollars .

So if india continues to grow on an average of 8% each year then in 2017 we will be around 4 trillion and hence the target of 5.6 trillion in 2020 seems pretty achievable , infact i think we can touch 6 trillion in that year . look at indian economic history for further knowledge .Ofcourse all this depends on wether we can maintain an average 8 % growth rate over this decade, but frankly it seems quite achievable .

 

[rollindays]

-------------------------------

 

[rollindays]

Mr. Bilal ,

India has been doubling its economy every 5 years inspite of growing at an average of 8 % each year .

India GDP (2002) - around 500 billion dollars
India GDP (2007)- touches 1 trillion dollars
India GDP ( 2012)- expected by most to touch or be very close to touching 2 trillion dollars .

So if india continues to grow on an average of 8% each year then in 2017 we will be around 4 trillion and hence the target of 5.6 trillion in 2020 seems pretty achievable , infact i think we can touch 6 trillion in that year . look at indian economic history for further knowledge .Ofcourse all this depends on wether we can maintain an average 8 % growth rate over this decade, but frankly it seems quite achievable .

If India grows at an average growth rate of 8% per year for the next 9 years, according to my calculations, India's GDP in 2020 will be close to about $3.5 trillion, not $5.6 trillion. Please correct me if my calculations are wrong.

 

[Abhishek_]

rollin, leave the kids to their dreams. You can't wake up someone pretending to be asleep

 

[ziaulislam]

Can someone explain to me what average GDP growth rate % has been assumed for the next 9 years?

I selected an average GDP growth rate of 10% for the next 9 years, & did a little calculation:

GDP nominal of India for 2011: $1.73 trillion

10% of $1.73 trillion is $0.173 trillion.

Hence:

1.73 + 9(0.173) = $3.287 trillion in 2020

Even when I used an average 15% GDP growth rate for the next 9 years, the GDP for 2020 came out to be $4.066 trillion.

There must be some other way to calculate this. Can someone show me how they got the $5.6 trillion economy number by 2020?

first its dollars not rupees...second indians think they will grow at 14% thats the only way they can reach there

with 14% econmy doubles at every 5 years

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

If India grows at an average growth rate of 8% per year for the next 9 years, according to my calculations, India's GDP in 2020 will be close to about $3.5 trillion, not $5.6 trillion. Please correct me if my calculations are wrong.

you and miss lamba( abhishekh) clearly don't understand the difference between nominal and real growth rates . India has done it in the past .It will do it again . Check out Great's post no. 31 . It answers your question but since you are bilal haider , i don't expect you to understand .My advice to you will be to wait and watch .

 

[Avishek]

Indian economy thread not allowed

 

[Abhishek_]

you and miss lamba( abhishekh) clearly don't understand the difference between nominal and real growth rates . India has done it in the past .It will do it again . Check out Great's post no. 31 . It answers your question but since you are bilal haider , i don't expect you to understand .My advice to you will be to wait and watch .

yes oh learned one...we do prefer to wait n watch. feel free to carry on living in air castles.
After all not everyone can live in "will be" & "Would be"

 

[rollindays]

you and miss lamba( abhishekh) clearly don't understand the difference between nominal and real growth rates . India has done it in the past .It will do it again . Check out Great's post no. 31 . It answers your question but since you are bilal haider , i don't expect you to understand .My advice to you will be to wait and watch .

I do. Please refer to this website, it is very good. The figures I provided to you were the nominal growth rates, they have already been adjusted for inflation. The inflation rate % has already been added to the real growth rate. In other words, the real growth rate is the nominal growth rate(the numbers I gave) - the inflation rate. The nominal growth rates are even lower than the figures I gave you.

I don't know why you are getting so offended, you yourself said that an 8% nominal GDP growth rate over the next 9 years would get India's GDP to $5.6 trillion in 2020, whereas, it only gets India's GDP to about slightly less than $3.5 trillion.

 

[aladin123]

Why you all consider 8% real growth is the constant ... why it will not grow???

 

[Abhishek_]

Why you all consider 8% real growth is the constant ... why it will not grow???

going by the recent trends dear friend. there are many global & internal factors that may hinder our goal to breach double digit real growth.
ponder over the graph rollin posted. they are the hard facts