India serves 90 day notice to Pakistan on Indus Water Treaty!

[Cheepek]

If India opts for option B then what option does Pakistan has ?

Apart from the option to declare war on the forum, nothing.
Transboundary waters are governed by customary international laws, so in the absence of IWT it should fall back to that.

 

[DabbuSardar]

And who told you Punjab means Indian punjab only? Pakistani Punjab is several times larger in both size and population. So, would you be open to dividing the water resources by population, then?

Pakistani punjab larger by several times???
It is less than half of undivided punjab, whoever told you that story has been fooling you all your life.

 

[lastofthepatriots]

Fuk are the bhartoads going to do after 90 days?

 

[That Guy]

No longer the option, Pakistan doesn't have the international leverage to put pressure on India.
Most likely what India is looking for is for Pakistan to accept Indian occupied Kashmir as an internal part of India and in return they will respect the original water division as per the treaty.
If you look up the Indus water treaty it predicates Kashmir being a disputed territory legally and that premise builds up towards the terms of the treaty. Now India is looking to revoke that term.
If you look at the original dispute then Indian government outplayed Pakistan back then too, the same dynamics that happened in Kashmir happened in Hyderabad as well and we gave up on that claim focusing on Kashmir. India, like China, has an economy that looks for long term moves.
Why is India doing this? I think contrary to popular opinion India desires much more independence in the upcoming century, it does not want to be heavily reliant on the US as opposition to China, if you read the Ukraine-Russian conflict from their think tanks they're quite critical of the US and NATO strategy to support Ukraine (basically debt for defence). Doing this would ensure that they can negotiate with China and keep a tap on how much does the rest of the world i.e. west gets to play into the point of conflict.
Most likely this agreement will be kept under the wraps as this clause will be agreed to, if it happens, for, like I said, India can afford to play in the long run.
As far as the situation for us is concerned then we've actually run of out of time and moves. Our economy is in shambles.
This move helps all major parties, as long as China's investment is secure in Pakistan it would not come in conflict with India. That they can give as long as their interests are catered for. India is building a case to spring board for the tech incorporated world as an investment haven and the only thing that stops them is the danger of being involved in a military conflict with Pakistan or China. Getting the legal requirement from Pakistan allows India to put the legality for any action into Kashmir solely on Pakistan or China thus negating any international legal reprecussion such as sanctions. (This is a much more complicated point but I think the post is already quite long)

That may very well be the reason why, but I don't buy that Pakiatan would accept it, regardless of Pakistan's political situation. It won't even allow something as benign as basic trade with India using WTO rules, why would Pakistan every accept this?

This is also not something that can be kept hidden. Bilateral treaties have no meaning if no one knows about them. If the opposition in Pakistan comes to power, or if there is a change in military leadership, a verbal agreement becomes meaningless, while a paper agreement would be found out almost instantly, due to third parties like the world bank which is involved in the IWT being informed that they're no longer needed. The world bank would 100% release a public statement if that ever happens.

Again, I don't disagree with the motivation, I just don't think it's realistic to expect Pakistan to accept it even secretly, regardless of Pakistan's current situation.

Kashmir has become to ideological for any Pakistani faction to accept this proposal without committing political suicide. This is especially true in this current situation where there is heavy scrutiny on every faction in Pakistan by the public, including the army and judiciary.

Pakistan never really had international leverage since the end of the cold war. It's always been the treaty itself that had forced India to play ball with Pakistan.

 

[jaibi]

That may very well be the reason why, but I don't buy that Pakiatan would accept it, regardless of Pakistan's political situation. It won't even allow something as benign as trade with India, why would Pakistan every accept it?

This is also not something that can be kept hidden. Bilateral treaties have no meaning if no one knows about them. If the opposition in Pakistan comes to power, or if there is a change in military leadership, a verbal agreement becomes meaningless, while a paper agreement would be found out almost instantly, due to third parties like the world bank which is involved in the IWT being informed that they're no longer needed. The world bank would 100% release a public statement if that ever happens.

Again, I don't disagree with the motivation, I just don't think it's realistic to expect Pakistan to accept it even secretly, regardless of Pakistan's current situation.

My friend you should check out history for that it's filled with backroom deals that are honoured because there's no other choice.

 

[truthseeker2010]

Pak withdrawing from IWT - I don't think GoP will take such risk

India withdrawing army from Kashmir or atleast drawing down considerably - GoI has already started to replace Regular Army with CRPF

Pak cutting down military due to economy - not going to happen, if they do so that will end Establishments dominance and cult among political decisions

Peace deal ? in present situation ! I find it difficult considering fact that GoI knows GoP is in desperate situation.

Economic meltdown, political instability and chances of public revolt/riot will make huge impact on GoI's decisions and eventually GoI will prefer to wait and watch.



If India opts for option B then what option does Pakistan has ?

1. When the gop won't have money for even salaries of its employees, it will do whatever it takes.

2. Establishment cult is over. Their dominance is not even the shadows of its past. They thinks themselves as invincible, whereas in reality anything they does backfire. Although it does not matter in the eyes of them, but the hatred for them in public is very much and very real.

My friend you should check out history for that it's filled with backroom deals that are honoured because there's no other choice.

That may very well be the reason why, but I don't buy that Pakiatan would accept it, regardless of Pakistan's political situation. It won't even allow something as benign as trade with India, why would Pakistan every accept it?

This is also not something that can be kept hidden. Bilateral treaties have no meaning if no one knows about them. If the opposition in Pakistan comes to power, or if there is a change in military leadership, a verbal agreement becomes meaningless, while a paper agreement would be found out almost instantly, due to third parties like the world bank which is involved in the IWT being informed that they're no longer needed. The world bank would 100% release a public statement if that ever happens.

Again, I don't disagree with the motivation, I just don't think it's realistic to expect Pakistan to accept it even secretly, regardless of Pakistan's current situation.

One should read about jamaat ali shah.

 

[AA_]

look at when the Indians are pulling this stunt, just in time for another election cycle.

they are not much stronger than us realistically speaking, we’re led by corrupt, sleazy, nasty pigs who can’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag.

If they withdrew from this treaty without amending the previous one, all bets are off the table then. Destroy that pretty fence they built over disputed territory of Kashmir and make them pay.

Bullies only recognize hard power!

 

[imadul]

Pakistan has all the rights to preemptively deter Indian designs of water wars with India.

Pakistan is weakest in history, it is same like 1971.
Still State/Military Estate will deal with it by not going to India's Authoritarian command to come, kneel, and talk to accept modi diktat.

 

[hembo]

It is time to seriously consider converting the LoC into a recognized international border and call it a day.

Unfortunately, IMHO, that time had come and went. Looking at the last 2 decades, I'm afraid this will not allowed to be done for, but not limited to, 3 main reasons:

1. Pak establishment: Cannot allow it for if the conflict is eliminated/ drastically reduced, there will be serious cut in defence spending, which will not be allowed for obvious reasons.

2. GoI: Perceived superiority complex and inflated ambition for GB for seamless access via Wakhan corridor.

3. China and its ambition in Pakistan via the disputed territories. 30 billion $ will be a nice bargaining chip.

 

[VCheng]

Unfortunately, IMHO, that time had come and went. Looking at the last 2 decades, I'm afraid this will not allowed to be done for, but not limited to, 3 main reasons:

1. Pak establishment: Cannot allow it for if the conflict is eliminated/ drastically reduced, there will be serious cut in defence spending, which will not be allowed for obvious reasons.

2. GoI: Perceived superiority complex and inflated ambition for GB for seamless access via Wakhan corridor.

3. China and its ambition in Pakistan via the disputed territories. 30 billion $ will be a nice bargaining chip.

Good points, but there ware still ways to suitably persuade the parties involved, I am sure. When the time is right, it will happen. There is no rush as of yet.

 

[hembo]

Good points, but there ware still ways to suitably persuade the parties involved, I am sure. When the time is right, it will happen. There is no rush as of yet.

Well, never say never. Things, afterall, are cyclical.

Cheers!

 

[That Guy]

My friend you should check out history for that it's filled with backroom deals that are honoured because there's no other choice.

True, but I don't think Pakistan is in that bad of a position that Pakistan has no other choice, not yet anyway. A default may occur, but nothing less than the threat of disintegration would convince Pakistan to agree to such a thing, even in a private verbal manner.

I'm willing to admit that I might be a tad bit optimistic and could be completely wrong. I want to believe that no matter how incompetent and greedy the current gov is, they wouldn't agree to such a demand.

 

[VCheng]

Indian people will never accept Azad Kashmir and GB as part of Pakistan. So the point is moot.
I think the best that can happen is India promising unrestricted and free travel/transport between Pak and China via CPEC routes.
If any Indian govt. were ro compromise on Azad Kashmir and GB the govt. would collapse the next day.

Whether people of any of the countries involved accept it or not, the fact remains that Kashmir was a state long lost and divvied among three neighboring nuclear powers. There is no other forward for any one except that I have said. Or the stalemate continues until something changes within each of the countries involved.

 

[jaibi]

True, but I don't think Pakistan is in that bad of a position that Pakistan has no other choice, not yet anyway. A default may occur, but nothing less than the threat of disintegration would convince Pakistan to agree to such a thing, even in a private verbal manner.

I'm willing to admit that I might be a tad bit optimistic and could be completely wrong. I want to believe that no matter how incompetent and greedy the current gov is, they wouldn't agree to such a demand.

By all measures we've already defaulted, brother, I think your optimism is secure because you're not here. The situation on the ground is extremely fragile and that's precisely why our neighbor is taking this step right now.

 

[That Guy]

By all measures we've already defaulted, brother, I think your optimism is secure because you're not here. The situation on the ground is extremely fragile and that's precisely why our neighbor is taking this step right now.

To be fair, I do make frequent back and forth trips and I tend to stay for a long time. I was just in Pakistan a few months ago.

I know how bad the situation is, and I do agree that Pakistan has practically defaulted.

Still, my optimism is less due to the economy and more due to the pure nationalism that even the scummiest Pakistani shows for some reason. They won't help Pakistan, but they won't tolerate foreign entities insulting Pakistan's image. I'm hoping that translates into some sort of positive outcome.