India serves 90 day notice to Pakistan on Indus Water Treaty!

[Thevilone]

Both countries came close during the Musharraf-Manmohan dialogues. I have repeatedly said in this forum that both countries need to go back to that dialogue. While there maybe new realizations of that in Pakistan--even in PDF-- I had concluded an honorable peace guaranteeing civil liberties of Kashmiris, including of Hindu Pandits, and Pakistan's water rights will bring the peace dividends which would truly make the LoC 'irrelevant'.

A lot has changed since that time. India has become much stronger, while Pakistan has been left bankrupt and this difference is increasing everyday. The terms will get more and more painful for Pakistan down the line.

Indian economy is growing at 7-8% where Pakistan's external debt has increased @14% over past 25 years.

 

[jaibi]

It may not be a bad thing overall. The only question here is whether we will be able to realize a peace dividend and grow out of the security straitjacket we have intentionally placed ourselves in over decades.

The future would always remain a mystery, sir, we have a history of wasting opportunities though

 

[VCheng]

The future would always remain a mystery, sir, we have a history of wasting opportunities though

And in this case, I would go as far as to say that past results are a guarantee of future outcomes, too.

 

[jaibi]

@jaibi saab

might be humming the kum ba yah here but still holding out hope for some sort of lasting peace between us, codified in a treaty

the modalities of this dream are much beyond me, I'm afraid

but there still exists a sliver of hope within our collective beating hearts

anywho.. dekho, dua karo .. who knows

I would agree, brother, if for nothing else than the nightmare that will be climate change the world would have to enter a new manner of existence for we are going to face an existential threat within our lifetimes. The last time this happened there was a world wide civilisational collapse of an entire age: the bronze age collapse of 1187 BCE

And in this case, I would go as far as to say that past results are a guarantee of future outcomes, too.

It's easy being pessimistic, sir, granted sometimes stupid being optimistic as well but I think sticking to reality and doing your best is the only option that remains

Pak withdrawing from IWT.
India withdrawing army from Kashmir or atleast drawing down considerably.
Pak cutting down military due to economy.

These are visible dots.

Things going forward will be:
Peace deal with afg or just fighting for attrition.
Just enough money for bare survival. The debt will be restructured on God know what, but definitely submission to West and no mercy from China either.
Who knows regarding nukes.....

I'd say the aresenal is a part of that equation as well, brother. The integrated economics is most vulnerable to disruption and subjugation would be the best bet to ensure nothing too adventurous happens.

 

[Sinnerman108]

On the contrary, a real or perceived deprivation of water to 220+ million people would be the war-cry to galvanize and unite Pakistanis!!

PS. I remember a video clip in which the Indian PM Manmohan Singh in sometimes in the 2000s era to a Pakistani journalist. He said something like 'You go back to Pakistan and tell them India is not cutting and will never cut Pakistan's water supplies'. I think he sounded sincere. Could the Modi govt fall to such lows of restricting Pakistan's water supplies?? Hard to say at this point. But, while Pakistanis might have not too much protested about the 'run of the river' damns built by India, any re-interpretation of the Indus Water Treaty to reduce Pakistan's water supply WILL be catastrophic for the region; Pakistan is one and the only country in South Asia which can destroy India even in a conventional war.

Look at it this way.
America needs India.
India wants her pound of flesh ( Pakistan ) to be subdued down.
Thus, they have installed a government of liking,
and are trying to free up mother india to take a more decisive role against China.
which i believe eventually the indians will not take,

Pakistan is an annoyance to india, that they are trying to clear by applying all possible
pressure levers at once.

 

[firohot4321]

While Pakistan State and Military Estate attacking Pakistani awam, India has served Pakistan 90 day notice to talk about modifying Indus Water Treaty

"An Indian government source said on Friday New Delhi had served Pakistan a notice to modify the treaty and wanted to meet to start resolving the long-running dispute within 90 days."

It is opportunate time for India to dictate its terms on Indus Water, Kashmir, Jammu, Laddakh, Siachen Glacier, and Trade.

And thats not it. India has constructed/under construction several strategic level tunnels throughout J&K to link with rest of India. Of course, all of that to move logistics at pace during war with Pakistan.

All this is going on, while Lord Clive's Military Inc Army attacking Pakistani Awam to perpetuate its economic and political interests.

As admins are quick to delete threads that directly or indirectly blame military establishment citing invalid source, for the state of malaise in Pakistan, here is the Reuters link and full article about Indus Water Treaty.

IT IS A MATTER OF DEATH AND DEATH FOR PAKISTAN.

Is there anyone to defend Pakistan?

India wants to keep third parties out of water treaty with Pakistan - sources

India has asked Pakistan to change a decades-old water-sharing agreement by barring third parties from intervening in disputes, an Indian government source said, a suggestion likely to rile Islamabad.

www.reuters.com

India wants to keep third parties out of water treaty with Pakistan - sources
By Krishn Kaushik

NEW DELHI, Jan 27 ( Reuters) - India has asked Pakistan to change a decades-old water-sharing agreement by barring third parties from intervening in disputes, an Indian government source said, a suggestion likely to rile Islamabad.

The nuclear-armed neighbours and foes have been arguing over hydroelectric projects on the shared Indus river and its tributaries for many years - a dispute exacerbated by their standoff over disputed Kashmir.

Pakistan is concerned that India's planned hydropower dams will cut flows on the river, which feeds 80% of its irrigated agriculture. Over the years it has asked for a neutral expert and then an arbitration court to intervene.

India has accused Pakistan of dragging out the complaints process, and says the construction of its Kishanganga and Ratle Hydro Electric projects is allowed by the six-decade-old Indus Water Treaty.

Right now world Bank is the guarante on the treaty
It also has clauses to take to international forums

If we accepted Indian demand to make it bilateral

Later India violates it

We can't go to international forums

The treaty would be dead any way and india would have be given a political face saving that it's bilateral

So would be a stupidity to entertain their demands

 

[Meengla]

Look at it this way.
America needs India.
India wants her pound of flesh ( Pakistan ) to be subdued down.
Thus, they have installed a government of liking,
and are trying to free up mother india to take a more decisive role against China.
which i believe eventually the indians will not take,

Pakistan is an annoyance to india, that they are trying to clear by applying all possible
pressure levers at once.

It cuts both ways: Pakistan is also a useful tool for America to pressure India. The less India cooperates in countering China, the more relevant Pakistan is to America. As far as India-China rivalry, thanks to Modi's 'muscular' policies, perhaps a point of no return is already reached.

BTW, I don't buy this sense of doom and gloom in Pakistan. Yes, a host of factors have caused a lot setbacks since starting the Covid pandemic but I believe Pakistan came out of the lows of late 1999 within a few years and can do the same again.

 

[Sinnerman108]

It cuts both ways: Pakistan is also a useful tool for America to pressure India. The less India cooperates in countering China, the more relevant Pakistan is to America. As far as India-China rivalry, thanks to Modi's 'muscular' policies, perhaps a point of no return is already reached.

BTW, I don't buy this sense of doom and gloom in Pakistan. Yes, a host of factors have caused a lot setbacks since starting the Covid pandemic but I believe Pakistan came out of the lows of late 1999 within a few years and can do the same again.

I don't think India will be managed that way via Pakistan.
I think the americans understand, economics is much closer to the indian heart
and will use the green card and economics to get what they want.

Pakistan will be used to ensure, none of the challenging aspirants gets access to the warm water.

 

[VCheng]

It's easy being pessimistic, sir, granted sometimes stupid being optimistic as well but I think sticking to reality and doing your best is the only option that remains

Sure. We can all hope. We have been doing that for half a century already, what's a few decades more, eh?

The less India cooperates in countering China, the more relevant Pakistan is to America.

That would be the case only if Pakistan can step up to do what India cannot for USA. And that seems unlikely.

 

[Cheepek]

It also has clauses to take to international forums

It has no such clause(s).

 

[Hyde]

Sooner or later, it is imminent we will have a full-scale war with India. It won't be for Kashmir, people or ethics/principles but purely on the basis of water scarcity. The war is imminent and millions of people will sadly die from it.

We can only postpone it but we can't hide from reality. It is a law of nature, when there are not enough resources for everyone, people will fight over them and die.

 

[PradoTLC]

India is run by Islam hating RSS thugs … they murder on mass their own Indian Muslims

Go figure any thing is possible

 

[kingQamaR]

This will cause a war. Don’t you worry here’s why, those who think not . Because except geographical condition is not such as that Pakistan can get water from any other resources such as rain water, river . so Pakistan is full depedent on Indus river for drinking and irrigation. you just do not mess around with countrys water . since it’s signing in the 1960s by nehru and Ayhub it has never ever been been made into a issue or crisis by the past sensible or even hostile Indian politicians in the past clearly knowing the risk of tampering with it will lead to war. Sadly that rational has now gone long time ago since these deluded apes and monkeys with religious fever taken over Delhi thinking they are untouchable and can do what they want with stupid Indians in tow . They will find out the hard way the errors of their way, these cowards have no military answer to Pakistan gone for water is their weapon of choice fine let’s see how that works out for you.

 

[jaibi]

Sure. We can all hope. We have been doing that for half a century already, what's a few decades more, eh?



That would be the case only if Pakistan can step up to do what India cannot for USA. And that seems unlikely.

Just, sir, that I don't think we've been realistic with our optimism or our pessimism. That is the central part of the quation

 

[Meengla]

Sooner or later, it is imminent we will have a full-scale war with India. It won't be for Kashmir, people or ethics/principles but purely on the basis of water scarcity. The war is imminent and millions of people will sadly die from it.

We can only postpone it but we can't hide from reality. It is a law of nature, when there are not enough resources for everyone, people will fight over them and die.

In general, that's true: Humans fighting for resources. That's what just about all wars are about.
In case of Pakistan, the vast majority of its population lives in a relatively small area along the Indus River. So creative solutions can be found. I read somewhere that the recent floods due to the heavy Monsoon rains had enough water to fill the mighty Tarbela Dam several times. Related to that, the forecasts for heavier and heavier rains every year due to climate change.