India serves 90 day notice to Pakistan on Indus Water Treaty!

[VCheng]

Just, sir, that I don't think we've been realistic with our optimism or our pessimism. That is the central part of the quation

Actually, it doesn't matter. Reality remains what it is, whether we are optimistic or pessimistic in our assessment of it. Sooner or later, we all find out just how close or far way those assessments were compared to the gold standard of reality.

Despite being accused of many things over the years on PDF, I am pretty confident of my assessments, at least in my own opinion of me.

I read somewhere that the recent floods due to the heavy Monsoon rains had enough water to fill the mighty Tarbela Dam several times. Related to that, the forecasts for heavier and heavier rains every year due to climate change.

What good will that do in the absence of any new additions to large-scale water storage reservoirs? And whose responsibility should it be to build them all along in line with rising requirements of an exploding population (which happens only by prayers in Pakistan, I know, I know)?

 

[imadul]

Right now world Bank is the guarante on the treaty
It also has clauses to take to international forums

If we accepted Indian demand to make it bilateral

Later India violates it

We can't go to international forums

The treaty would be dead any way and india would have be given a political face saving that it's bilateral

So would be a stupidity to entertain their demands

Ex President of Mastercatd, Ajay Banga has been nominated to be the next president of World Bank.
He is Indian born and headed a world renown company.
He is a Sikh, but it is to be seen if he puts his weight for WB to be an impartial arbitrator or WB sides with India.

 

[firohot4321]

Ex President of Mastercatd, Ajay Banga has been nominated to be the next president of World Bank.
He is Indian born and headed a world renown company.
He is a Sikh, but it is to be seen if he puts his weight for WB to be an impartial arbitrator or WB sides with India.

These guys loyalties are to their employer

 

[Meengla]

What good will that do in the absence of any new additions to large-scale water storage reservoirs? And whose responsibility should it be to build them all along in line with rising requirements of an exploding population (which happens only by prayers in Pakistan, I know, I know)?

That's for the policy makers to plan. But it can be done. There is some population distribution (or lack of!) advantage Pakistan can use.

 

[VCheng]

That's for the policy makers to plan. But it can be done. There is some population distribution (or lack of!) advantage Pakistan can use.

Yes, it can be done. But we have chosen not to do so thus far.

 

[El Sidd]

There is no concept of pre-emptive deterrence in the treaty. There is a dispute resolution mechanism which you need to adhere to. There is also a provision to the amend the treaty under Article XII (3) which India has used for sending the notice. If you do not respond within 90 days, it will mean that you are not interested in abiding by the treaty which India can use for saying that you are in breach every time you go to IJC bypassing the World Bank intermediary. Then the whole treaty goes for a toss. Why do you want to jeopardise a treaty that has served well for so many decades and is cited as an international example of cooperation?

A. Both parties cannot simply amend the treaty unilaterally. Pakistan refuses to entertain any such amendment.

B. If India wishes to and finds it unfair, she can do away with the treaty as a whole and let nature take its course.

 

[Meengla]

Yes, it can be done. But we have chosen not to do so thus far.

As Imran Khan was whipping up anti-America false narrative as the SITTING PM of Pakistan, just to regain power, oblivious to the damage that would cause to Pakistan's economy, some sane journalists pointed out that a lot of Pakistan's prosperity, especially in agriculture sector, was due to America's technical help after the IWT. The needful was done before and can be done again.

PS. There needs to a separate topic about what would have Pakistan faced if, in March/April 2022, Biden exercised his power and influence over his (rich) allies to punish Pakistan economically. No UN authorization even needed for such punishment. Then we would know what 'Haqeeqi Azadi' mean!!

 

[VCheng]

As Imran Khan was whipping up anti-America false narrative as the SITTING PM of Pakistan, just to regain power, oblivious to the damage that would cause to Pakistan's economy, some sane journalists pointed out that a lot of Pakistan's prosperity, especially in agriculture sector, was due to America's technical help after the IWT. The needful was done before and can be done again.

PS. There needs to a separate topic about what would have Pakistan faced if, in March/April 2022, Biden exercised his power and influence over his (rich) allies to punish Pakistan economically. No UN authorization even needed for such punishment. Then we would know what 'Haqeeqi Azadi' mean!!

Are we still expecting USA to come help out Pakistan again? After all that Pakistan has done to vilify USA to its own ingrate population? That would be a tough sell inside the Beltway for sure.

 

[SQ8]

Try reading the actual IWT and not the many claims that are thrown about with abandon by those who would obfuscate the issue intentionally.



The people are fed lies from those who would want to divert attention from their own failures, similar to the IMF being a villain instead of a rescuer.



And the fact that India has not violated IWT treaty provisions.



Yes, they do. A lot.

If that was the case then in that aspect too - the poor understanding of the treaty and laws would apply.

I

Its very simple , Blood and Water cant flow together. You have to stop Blood , then, Water will flow .. 2024 election in the offing


And Before that, there was 10,000 years of Hindu rule in the same places so, who wins ?


absolutely, IWT is grave injustice to East Punjab, Kashmir, Jammu and ladakh , this must be fixed at any cost. i am just waiting for 2024 election.

Are you done with the Jingoism or do you want a kick in the butt to remind you whose forum you are on?

 

[villageidiot]

Not only are you a Pashtun nationalist but also a Punjabi nationalist all at once
aap insaan ho ya jonny sins?

Nice , @Areesh,

majhan majhan diyan pena hondia ne

@Mirzali Khan , it's a Punjabi saying meaning, all buffaloes are sisters.
i.e. Birds of a feather, flock together.

 

[VCheng]

If that was the case then in that aspect too - the poor understanding of the treaty and laws would apply.

Absolutely. Reading the IWT should be required reading for anyone thinking of being hysterical over water shortages brought on by own own incompetence before mouthing off about how war is inevitable as a solution. It will solve nothing.

 

[SQ8]

Absolutely. Reading the IWT should be required reading for anyone thinking of being hysterical over water shortages brought on by own own incompetence before mouthing off about how war is inevitable as a solution. It will solve nothing.

War is never going to happen - that gumption for anything beyond internal operations or at best pounding Afghanistan no longer exists.

 

[villageidiot]

Why not all 5 to punjab?

You do know the meaning of punjab right?

And who told you Punjab means Indian punjab only? Pakistani Punjab is several times larger in both size and population. So, would you be open to dividing the water resources by population, then?

 

[VCheng]

War is never going to happen - that gumption for anything beyond internal operations or at best pounding Afghanistan no longer exists.

I can agree with that assessment 100%.

 

[kmc_chacko]

Pak withdrawing from IWT.
India withdrawing army from Kashmir or atleast drawing down considerably.
Pak cutting down military due to economy.

These are visible dots.

Things going forward will be:
Peace deal with afg or just fighting for attrition.
Just enough money for bare survival. The debt will be restructured on God know what, but definitely submission to West and no mercy from China either.
Who knows regarding nukes.....

Pak withdrawing from IWT - I don't think GoP will take such risk

India withdrawing army from Kashmir or atleast drawing down considerably - GoI has already started to replace Regular Army with CRPF

Pak cutting down military due to economy - not going to happen, if they do so that will end Establishments dominance and cult among political decisions

Peace deal ? in present situation ! I find it difficult considering fact that GoI knows GoP is in desperate situation.

Economic meltdown, political instability and chances of public revolt/riot will make huge impact on GoI's decisions and eventually GoI will prefer to wait and watch.

A. Both parties cannot simply amend the treaty unilaterally. Pakistan refuses to entertain any such amendment.

B. If India wishes to and finds it unfair, she can do away with the treaty as a whole and let nature take its course.

If India opts for option B then what option does Pakistan has ?