India selects EF, Rafale for MMRCA shortlist

[sancho]

Any follow on order for mmrca which could be anywhere between 64 to 134 aircrafts will mainly depend on 2 things
Mirage 2000 upgrade being cancelled and any possible delay in fgfa

While i dont expect expect Delay in FGFA , but there is still a possibility of mirage upgrade being cancelled , add to that 100 odd jaguars which will have to be replaced between 2020-24

The Mirage upgrade won't be cancelled, unless we make a deal to get fast produced Rafales instead, because the Rafale F3+ is the only fighter that is ready and capable in time to replace the Mirage. LCA MK1 will start production around the same time of the Mirage upgrade, but will be less capable, EF will not even be ready developed by the timeline of MMRCA and the A2G performance as I said is even less than the Mirage 2000s offer now.
That leaves IAF with no other options, either the upgrade of one of its best fighters, or replacing it right away with Rafale!

In regard of increased numbers, by the fact that the 2 most expensive fighter remained in the competition, I don't expect many follow orders, especially of the EF. By the time follow orders could be needed, LCA MK2 will be ready and mature enough, but by far more cost-effective. I only see follow orders of Rafale if IN and SFC wants it as well, or if IAF reduce the number of upgraded Jags and replace them with more MMRCAs. Expensive, but would increase IAF capabilities by far, be it in air defense, or strikes!

 

[sudhir007]

The Mirage upgrade won't be cancelled, unless we make a deal to get fast produced Rafales instead, because the Rafale F3+ is the only fighter that is ready and capable in time to replace the Mirage. LCA MK1 will start production around the same time of the Mirage upgrade, but will be less capable, EF will not even be ready developed by the timeline of MMRCA and the A2G performance as I said is even less than the Mirage 2000s offer now.
That leaves IAF with no other options, either the upgrade of one of its best fighters, or replacing it right away with Rafale!

In regard of increased numbers, by the fact that the 2 most expensive fighter remained in the competition, I don't expect many follow orders, especially of the EF. By the time follow orders could be needed, LCA MK2 will be ready and mature enough, but by far more cost-effective. I only see follow orders of Rafale if IN and SFC wants it as well, or if IAF reduce the number of upgraded Jags and replace them with more MMRCAs. Expensive, but would increase IAF capabilities by far, be it in air defense, or strikes!

But if we cancel the Mirage & Jags. upgradation which mean we save around $3.2B. If 1 Rafale cost around $80 Million then we can easily buy around 40 plane. But because we already setup all the manufacturing local it will cost less. and I count 1 rafale with 2-3 jags. and jag & Mirage only short term beneficial but buy a Rafale will serve around 30-40 yr

 

[Archie]

Thats what i was saying
We should replace 285 odd Jaguars ,Mig27 and Mirages by 200 Rafales

Which should not cost us more than 15 billion USD
Thats coz our current 126 mmrca cost 11 billion , which include setting up manufacturing , training and mentainence infrastructure
while additional RAFALES will not have such additional cost

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

The design of the EF is better for A2A, while the Rafale design is better for multi role. When you compare the performance in both roles other factors like weapons and techs play a role as well. If you rate both fighters in these roles (from 1 to 5, the lower the better), the EF might be a 1, Rafale a close 2, but in A2G Rafale is a 1 and EF with all capablities available or fixed for tranche 3, hardly a 4, because it's not even better than IAF Mirage 2000s.
So any air force that searches for an air superiority fighter, the EF is a great choice, but if you want a multi role fighter, especially if you have an air superiority fighter anyway, the Rafale is the obvious choice!

Thanks , plus the rafale is cheaper as well which means my decision to vote for rafale was correct .

Sancho do you have any concrete idea about the exact or rough prices of these birds ? There is very contradictory info on the net .

 

[Abingdonboy]

When you think about it, it does seem stupid to upgrade the Mirages in IAF service to -5/9 standard when they will still be inferior to its REPLACMENT the Rafele and spend $2.1 BILLION doing so. But then I also see what ACM Niak said- he could either UPG the Mirage or "throw away" the air frames that are good for anoth 20 years (his words). As I expect (at least I hope) that the entire order of MMRCA (even if the number increases to 200+) are completed by 2020-5 BUT UPG would only enter service by ~2014-5 so is it worth having UPG Mirage in IAF service for <10 years and have them replaced by last batch of MMRCA or not UPG at all and risk having a less capable a/c for same period? It is a very complex question made even more complex by the fact that the Rafale is the successor to the Mirage. I don't know what the IAF's thinking is on this and it would be interesting to know if the M2k UPG is still on?

 

[sancho]

But if we cancel the Mirage & Jags. upgradation which mean we save around $3.2B. If 1 Rafale cost around $80 Million then we can easily buy around 40 plane. But because we already setup all the manufacturing local it will cost less. and I count 1 rafale with 2-3 jags. and jag & Mirage only short term beneficial but buy a Rafale will serve around 30-40 yr

Maybe even more, because the Mirage upgrade is stated at around $2 billions and the upgrade of Jags migh involve up to 100 fighters. Of course the Rafale is more capable and therefor replacing Jags would make sense, but we also have to keep in mind that we phase out Mig 21s and 27 already, around 300 fighters I guess. If we now want to phase out Mirage and Jags at the same time, we need an alternative that can equal these numbers. Imo only possible if HAL can start LCA MK2 production with good numbers an no delays, as well with way more Rafales from France then only 1 squad.
I still say the Mirage upgrade will come fore sure, but possibly not all Jags will be upgraded.

 

[sancho]

Thanks , plus the rafale is cheaper as well which means my decision to vote for rafale was correct .

Sancho do you have any concrete idea about the exact or rough prices of these birds ? There is very contradictory info on the net .

Not an exact idea, because the costs are dependent on several variables, but imo the fly away unit cost of Rafale is at least $20 millions lower than EFs, however IAF stated that the lifecycle costs will be important as well and I didn't found reliable comparison of Rafale and EF on that field so far.

I don't know what the IAF's thinking is on this and it would be interesting to know if the M2k UPG is still on?

The point is that all alternatives are more costly, most of them can't be produced in time and they all will require new training. That means upgrading, very capable and reliable Mirage 2000s makes it easier for IAF to phase out less reliable and capable fighters first, as well as to induct totally new types like LCA, or MMRCA.

 

[axisofevil]

Don't forget how Air France treated stranded Indian Passengers compared to the other foreign passengers.......Don't forget..ever forget...

 

[MilSpec]

When you think about it, it does seem stupid to upgrade the Mirages in IAF service to -5/9 standard when they will still be inferior to its REPLACMENT the Rafele and spend $2.1 BILLION doing so. But then I also see what ACM Niak said- he could either UPG the Mirage or "throw away" the air frames that are good for anoth 20 years (his words). As I expect (at least I hope) that the entire order of MMRCA (even if the number increases to 200+) are completed by 2020-5 BUT UPG would only enter service by ~2014-5 so is it worth having UPG Mirage in IAF service for <10 years and have them replaced by last batch of MMRCA or not UPG at all and risk having a less capable a/c for same period? It is a very complex question made even more complex by the fact that the Rafale is the successor to the Mirage. I don't know what the IAF's thinking is on this and it would be interesting to know if the M2k UPG is still on?

Well i think the 2.1 bill price tag includes not supplying pakistan with avionics for the jf17. but jokes apart i think India needs to look into this upgrade and get this price down and also if we can get the UAE miarges through Dassault, Indian sqdn strength is dropping , and we need reinforcements right now. Mirages should be ubpgraded and if we have any option we should get othe mirage2005-9 in the market too for the strategic nuclear command.

 

[luckyyy]

Don't forget how Air France treated stranded Indian Passengers compared to the other foreign passengers.......Don't forget..ever forget...

tht incident was just another example of the "soft target" of the indian state..

 

[MilSpec]

Which looks sexier EFT or Rafale..... All who Say Rafale raise your thumb

 

[luckyyy]

With the French and the British taking the main lead, one of the main issues was that they could soon run out of bombs. An article in The Washington Time (NATO runs short on some munitions in Libya) affirmed: "Less than a month into the Libyan conflict, NATO is running short of precision bombs, highlighting the limitations of Britain, France and other European countries in sustaining even a relatively small military action over an extended period of time."
This demonstrates the limits of the ability by European nations to conduct a sky-war. The problem was summed up by the same newspaper: "Although the United States has significant stockpiles, its munitions do not fit on the British and French-made planes that have flown the bulk of the missions."

http://www.sify.com/news/if-france-can-intervene-in-libya-why-not-in-china-news-columns-lflvtBaigfi.html

 

[jha]

Which looks sexier EFT or Rafale..... All who Say Rafale raise your thumb

 

[jha]

But if we cancel the Mirage & Jags. upgradation which mean we save around $3.2B. If 1 Rafale cost around $80 Million then we can easily buy around 40 plane. But because we already setup all the manufacturing local it will cost less. and I count 1 rafale with 2-3 jags. and jag & Mirage only short term beneficial but buy a Rafale will serve around 30-40 yr

We can not cancel this Mirage Upgrade...Mirage is for additional purpose ..

 

[mastaan]

We can not cancel this Mirage Upgrade...Mirage is for additional purpose ..

I'd say we should not... It serves 2 purposes... It is an interim stop-gap arrangement and then, it is a good recon plane as well.. Correct me if I am wrong ... and, if the cost of a stop gap is a couple of billion dollars... So, be it... I don't think we should look at costs when talking about threats to the nation or our defence mechanisms...