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India-Russia Divorce and its impact on Indian defence

The Russian bull in South Asia shop
Russia’s recent diplomatic mess in India happened because the bilateral relationship has hardly gone beyond defence

Kunal Singh

rus-kM0C--621x414@LiveMint.jpg

Photo: AFP Photo/Inter Services Public Relations/HO
It is no exaggeration to state that Russia—previously, the Soviet Union—has been India’s most reliable partner post-Independence. But a gradual shift has been underway for the past few years. Russia’s decision to send a mechanized infantry unit of its southern military command for joint military exercises with Pakistani troops is part of the shift. The Russians were clever to time it with the India-Russia joint military exercises in Ussuriysk district.

But then the Uri attack happened and reports started trickling in that Russia had cancelled its joint military exercise with Pakistan. Given the weight of history, this development was not surprising. Except that it was untrue. Not only did Russia go ahead with the exercises but the state-run news agency TASS even reported that the opening ceremony would be held at an army school in Rattu in Gilgit-Baltistan. Given the disputed status of that territory and the recent war of words between India and Pakistan on the same, this was a red line crossed as far as New Delhi was concerned.

Quickly realizing the diplomatic quicksand they had entered, the Russians took corrective measures. TASS removed the details of Gilgit-Baltistan locations from its website and the Russian embassy in New Delhi issued a clarification that the sole venue of military exercises in Pakistan is Cherat. All other reports, the embassy said, were “erroneous and mischievous”.

What explains the Russian desire to strengthen ties with Pakistan but without infuriating New Delhi? A part of the answer lies in the growing strategic and defence partnership between New Delhi and Washington. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the share of the US in Indian arms imports has climbed from 0.18% in 1995-2000 to 13.78% in 2011-15. The surge in arms imports from Israel started even earlier but that too with the US in the loop. The decline in the share of Russian imports is not too great: It decreased from 76.52% during 2006-10 to 70.44% during 2011-15 but it remains roughly similar to the share of 71% during 1995-2000. However, with India being called a “major defence partner” of the US, the Russians see the writing on the wall.

With low commodity prices and Western sanctions following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, the Russian economy is under tremendous pressure. The desire to diversify its arms market is natural. In June 2014, it lifted an arms embargo on Pakistan and the two countries signed a military cooperation agreement a few months later. Earlier this year, Russia agreed to sell four Mi-35 attack helicopters to Pakistan. Su-35 fighter jets may be next in line.

But the diversification is easier said than done. Moscow fears that overplaying the Pakistan card may accelerate the Americanization of Indian defence supplies. With a sharp contraction in Chinese purchases, the Russian defence industry is today over-reliant on India. The Indian share in Russian arms exports has increased, according to Sipri data, from 23.36% in 1995-2000 to 39.09% during 2011-15.

To round off the complicated picture of Russian arms deals in South Asia, India has recently sold, with Moscow’s nod, four Russian origin Mi-25 attack helicopters to Afghanistan to fight the Pakistan-backed Taliban. India also has an arrangement with Russia to pay for the arms and equipment the latter sells to Afghanistan.

It is not just Russia which is attempting a tightrope walk. India too has taken positions on Crimea and Syria which are more in line with Moscow’s thinking than Washington’s. New Delhi believes the West’s rigid stance vis-à-vis Russia has only achieved a closer Moscow-Beijing embrace. It has also increased the probability of a Moscow-Beijing-Rawalpindi axis evolving.

The India-Russia relationship has had its hiccups. The high point was clearly the bilateral treaty of 1971 which helped India’s offensive in East Pakistan. But in 1962, Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev delayed the transfer of MiG-21 aircraft till the border war between India and China had ended. In an attempt to repair Sino-Soviet mistrust, Khrushchev told Chinese ambassador Liu Xiao that the Chinese were USSR’s “brothers” while Indians merely “friends”. Khrushchev assured Liu that there was no question of Soviet neutrality between India and China.

The other major disappointment came when the Soviet Union decided to broker peace between India and Pakistan in the 1965 war. India had to cede all its wartime gains under Soviet pressure at Tashkent. As K. Shankar Bajpai wrote in The Indian Express last September, the threat of withdrawal of the Soviet veto in the UN security council (UNSC) did the trick.

In more recent years, Russia has indeed supported New Delhi’s entry into the UNSC. But its attitude towards the expansion of the council—and hence towards Indian entry—has been found wanting. It obviously helps Russia if its largest arms purchaser remains dependent on it for support inside the security council.

The Cherat and Ussuriysk exercises and the mess that came with them should be seen in the historical perspective of the India-Russia bilateral relationship and the current flux in the arms market. This mess happened because India-Russia cooperation has hardly gone beyond defence. The bilateral trade in 2015 was a measly $7.83 billion. The India-US relationship encompasses a far greater number of areas and bilateral trade in 2015 was more than $132 billion. Clearly, a different world is evolving and so is the new normal of India-Russia ties.

Kunal Singh is staff writer (views) at Mint.

Comments are welcome at kunal.s@livemint.com

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/yto02BCIHvApwsFKwDkLMO/The-Russian-bull-in-South-Asia-shop.html

I think Bakhts are not understanding the issue and seriousness of Russia warming towards Pakistan....Russian Army landing in Pakistan despite uri attack and India's protests tells A LOT..... Timing of Russians arriving in Pakistan is very important...If Russians had really blamed Pakistan then they wouldn't have landed in Pakistan just after Uri attack....The timing sends the signals to everyone....

Comment posted by fellow Pakistani, I m re-posting here....

From the Russian ministry of Defence website.

Friendship-2016, Russian-Pakistani tactic exercise, is held in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in at the bases of Rattu, the military mountain training school, and a training center of the special units in Cherat on September 24 – October 10.

This is the first exercise held by the Russian Armed Forces jointly with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Pakistan. More than 200 military servicemen from both parties are involved in the exercise.

About 70 military servicemen of the Southern MD mountain motorized rifle brigade, which is located in Karachay-Cherkessia, are taking part in the exercise.

The servicemen will share their experience and improve cooperation while performing assigned tasks in mountains, including ones aimed at eliminating illegal armed groups.

The joint exercise is to strengthen and develop military cooperation of Russia and Pakistan.

You can see the bold part that Russia has accepted Gilgit Baltistan as part of Pakistan....Indians thought that Russia is just cheap whore (no offense to Russians) who will dance on Indian money but frankly thats not the case at all....

This article also hints what Russians are thinking....

http://katehon.com/article/heres-what-uri-attack-kashmir-has-do-russia-and-china
 
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@dadeechi

You were considered a sensible poster. I guess Uri attack has affected you quite greatly.

Sad to see another member relegated to the bin from my side

@PARIKRAMA @nair


What sort of a stupid thread is this ???

I really do not understand the purpose of such threads..... As you said "Uri" Attack has affected some of our posters badly..... Very sad to see..... I do not think this is a right thread.... Surprisingly both the sides (posters) have same feeling about this thread.....

No. It is not the Uri attack but the current and future state of Indo-Russian relations.

Indian policy makers took the dumbest decision in recent times by getting close to the U.S. I thought India would learn from the mistakes that Pakistan did in the past by getting close to U.S and how Pak has been used as a pawn for America's own political and strategic gains. Both Indians and Pakistanis are talking about war and how one would crush the other but I am pretty sure neither country would dare to wage a war against each other, not because they aren't capable of or they lack guts but as both India and Pakistan are improving economically and any act of war/aggression on the other would totally collapse their economies. I hope India would keep U.S at bay and would give more importance to Russia and China. Modi coming from Gujarat where most people are into businesses rather than jobs has a typical business man mindset and is doing well on improving the economy but his foreign policy decisions aren't on par with his economic decisions.

The problem is not getting close to US. I strongly support strong Indo-US relations. US is the only country which could economically make India stronger be it through jobs or FDI and strategically enhancing the stature of the country through various memberships.

The issue is with managing the relationship with Russia. At worst India should have tried to maintain the relationship if not enhance it.

The actions of the incumbent government towards Russia are incompetent at best and nefarious at worst.

People hate Congress for corruption and their minority appeasement policies but on foreign policy front Congress had much pragmatic approach.

In case of BJP, people love it for their corrupt-free clean image and development oriented policies but their foreign policy has been a total disaster.

Recently they went into a publicity over drive on Russia cancelling the military exercises with Pakistan only to leave the Indians totally disappointed.

Why are they doing it? The reason is simple. As Modi himself said couple of years ago “Every school child in India knows Russia is India’s best friend.” . The problem for the BJP is that they need to manage and change the view of the pubic towards Russia. So strategy seems to be publically keep praising Russia while privately taking actions that would compromise the Indo-Russian relationship. The plan is to ensure that Russia is considered as the bad guy in the eyes of the Indian public rather than GoI.

The institutionalized yearly Indo-Russian meetings have the same relevance of NAM summit meetings. Modi just attends them to show that GoI is still the good guy.


Better not discuss these things in public, this shit will go away in time....

Former Indian diplomats and policy think tanks are publically discussing this now. People discussing or refraining does not really matter.
 
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dude its just one excercise ! wake me up when putin arrives in islamabad:coffee:

lets keep our feet on the ground ya ?
 
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I think Bakhts are not understanding the html
e and seriousness of Russia warming towards Pakistan....Russian Army landing in Pakistan despite uri attack and India's protests tells A LOT..... Timing of Russians arriving in Pakistan is very important...If Russians had really blamed Pakistan then they wouldn't have landed in Pakistan just after Uri attack....The timing sends the signals to everyone....

Comment posted by fellow Pakistani, I m re-posting here....

From the Russian ministry of Defence website.

Friendship-2016, Russian-Pakistani tactic exercise, is held in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in at the bases of Rattu, the military mountain training school, and a training center of the special units in Cherat on September 24 – October 10.

This is the first exercise held by the Russian Armed Forces jointly with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Pakistan. More than 200 military servicemen from both parties are involved in the exercise.

About 70 military servicemen of the Southern MD mountain motorized rifle brigade, which is located in Karachay-Cherkessia, are taking part in the exercise.

The servicemen will share their experience and improve cooperation while performing assigned tasks in mountains, including ones aimed at eliminating illegal armed groups.

The joint exercise is to strengthen and develop military cooperation of Russia and Pakistan.

You can see the bold part that Russia has accepted Gilgit Baltistan as part of Pakistan....Indians thought that Russia is just cheap whore (no offense to Russians) who will dance on Indian money but frankly thats not the case at all....

This article also hints what Russians are thinking....

http://katehon.com/article/heres-what-uri-attack-kashmir-has-do-russia-and-china

http://m.indiatoday.in/story/not-ho...-exercise-with-pak-in-so-called/1/772115.html

Do remember shiny toys require money and even if Pakistan sells all it's people to slavery you won't match 1 year of Indo - Russian defence trade. LOL Su 35S, more like an *** grass or gas situation. :rofl::rofl::rofl:
 
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http://m.indiatoday.in/story/not-ho...-exercise-with-pak-in-so-called/1/772115.html

Do remember shiny toys require money and even if Pakistan sells all it's people to slavery you won't match 1 year of Indo - Russian defence trade. LOL Su 35S, more like an *** grass or gas situation. :rofl::rofl::rofl:

Money is not everything, jackass....Russia is not looking what it will sell to Pakistan...Russia is looking what it can sell THROUGH Pakistan....

Unlike Indians, Russians are not cheap whore will dance on whoever throws big money...

Its time for Indians to burn...Go to this thread...I have to open burn center in your country...U desperately need it...Till then enjoy this...

https://defence.pk/threads/pak-russia-drills-video.451848/

:lol: :enjoy:
 
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Money is not everything, jackass....Russia is not looking what it will sell to Pakistan...Russia is looking what it can sell THROUGH Pakistan....

Unlike Indians, Russians are not cheap whore will dance on whoever throws big money...

Its time for Indians to burn...Go to this thread...I have to open burn center in your country...U desperately need it...Till then enjoy this...

https://defence.pk/threads/pak-russia-drills-video.451848/

:lol: :enjoy:


What you fail to understand here my friend is this >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

IT IS INDIA THAT HAS SHIFTED AWAY (DITCHED RUSSIA) FOR ISRAEL FRANCE AND USA.

Good luck getting spares off Russia for thunders GET USED to price escalations .

RUSSIA is NO LONGER a super power AND INDIA has out grown RUSSIA .

PAKISTANIS ENJOY
 
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Hey douchebag money makes the whole word turn around. A two bit country that can start crapping their pants over a water treaty shows what their Aukad is.

Lol at your delusions.

:partay::partay:

T
What you fail to understand here my friend is this >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

IT IS INDIA THAT HAS SHIFTED AWAY (DITCHED RUSSIA) FOR ISRAEL FRANCE AND USA.

Good luck getting spares off Russia for thunders GET USED to price escalations .

RUSSIA is NO LONGER a super power AND INDIA has out grown RUSSIA .

PAKISTANIS ENJOY

These delusional fools dream of Su 35S when they can't even afford a new F 16 without aid.

Then again this is from a country that would eat grass but make nukes.
 
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What you fail to understand here my friend is this >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

IT IS INDIA THAT HAS SHIFTED AWAY (DITCHED RUSSIA) FOR ISRAEL FRANCE AND USA.

Good luck getting spares off Russia for thunders GET USED to price escalations .

RUSSIA is NO LONGER a super power AND INDIA has out grown RUSSIA .

PAKISTANIS ENJOY

Thanks. We are already enjoying and having fun right now........

https://defence.pk/threads/pak-russia-drills-video.451848/

Hey douchebag money makes the whole word turn around. A two bit country that can start crapping their pants over a water treaty shows what their Aukad is.

Lol at your delusions.

:partay::partay:

T


These delusional fools dream of Su 35S when they can't even afford a new F 16 without aid.

Then again this is from a country that would eat grass but make nukes.

:chilli:.....Russians are in the town after snubbing India...It hurts, I know....:whistle:
 
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One drill and Russia-Pakistan became best friends? India Russia divorce? Doesn't China do drills with India? Isn't Pak, Rus, China and India all in SCO?.

Just because we have the freedom to use words, we say whatever we want now.

India Russia relations was found on over 40 years of working together. Russia is successor of USSR. The same soviets that Pakistani members here claim to defeat during the soviet invasion of Afghans. Yes. Russia forgot that now. Yes. India is moving towards US camp. Still Russia has over 20Bn USD of yearly trade with India, which they want to increase. So do they want to trade with Pakistan. They need money.
 
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Russia never gave any free weapons to India nor used Indian base. While USA used Pakistan and divorced now Pakistan is with China. lol
 
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Money is not everything, jackass....Russia is not looking what it will sell to Pakistan...Russia is looking what it can sell THROUGH Pakistan....

Unlike Indians, Russians are not cheap whore will dance on whoever throws big money...

Its time for Indians to burn...Go to this thread...I have to open burn center in your country...U desperately need it...Till then enjoy this...

https://defence.pk/threads/pak-russia-drills-video.451848/

:lol: :enjoy:
Fair enough...please enlighten what Russia will sell through Pakistan and to whom?? Also the second bold part is what it is being accused of...because russia is loosing ground in Indian defense market that is why it is getting closer to Pakistan(Edit : By Pakistani friends)...thirdly its been ages since we were dependent on anyone's aid...In fact we are net giver when it comes to aid...can we say the same about your country?? so this dancing part is a bit invalid in our case...no??
 
Last edited:
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Thanks. We are already enjoying and having fun right now........

https://defence.pk/threads/pak-russia-drills-video.451848/



:chilli:.....Russians are in the town after snubbing India...It hurts, I know....:whistle:

You do realise India is conducting simultaneous exercises with US and Russia.
In other words we are screwing you from back and front.

BTW congrats, Pakistan will now be labeled a terrorist state soon.

http://dailytimes.com.pk/pakistan/2...o-declare-pakistan-state-sponsor-of-terrorism
 
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Fair enough...please enlighten what Russia will sell through Pakistan and to whom?? Also the second bold part is what it is being accused of...because russia is loosing ground in Indian defense market that is why it is getting closer to Pakistan(Edit : By Pakistani friends)...thirdly its been ages since we were dependent on anyone's aid...In fact we are net giver when it comes to aid...can we say the same about your country?? so this dancing part is a bit invalid in our case...no??

Pakistanis have this feeling that they are indispensable middleman through which everyone needs to conduct business
Russians have sold weapons to iran, iraq, syria, libya, egypt, uae, algeria, bangladesh directly in the past. it beats me why they need pakistani help in selling anything

a lot of this Russia-Pakistan friendship is being pushed by Pakistanis who know China-Pakistan is no match for USA led alliance
 
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