This is a bit of a dated piece, written when tension was quite high after the Jaipur bombings, but TA Khan's observations and optimism now seem quite prescient, in terms of how the Indo_Pak relationship, fragile as ever, is slowly progressing rather than regressing as one would have expected given the tensions over the Embassy bombing and the series of terrorist attacks in Pakistan and India, blamed on each other.
analysis: Composite dialogue —Tanvir Ahmad Khan
India and Pakistan are set to resume their ‘composite dialogue’ next week. This should bring to an end a period of low key exchanges. The slow-down was largely blamed on the political crisis in Pakistan but probably had other reasons as well that were intrinsic to the peace process.
The forthcoming visit of the Indian foreign minister will reveal if the period of “masterly inactivity” was used by the dialogue partners for introspection and creative thinking about the factors inhibiting a full flowering of the détente that began in 2004.
An India-Pakistan rapprochement could be the cornerstone of a regional architecture of peace and progress that could transform lives in a large swathe of the Asian continent. The nature of contemporary problems and their possible solutions should act as drivers of accelerated reconciliation.
There are many positive reasons for enhanced cooperation but as I write this piece a negative reason too haunts me. Jaipur, India’s pink city of captivating beauty has seen the kind of murder and mayhem witnessed many times in Pakistan.
Speculation in the Indian media points to Harkat-ul-Jehadi Islamia, a militant organisation of Bangladesh that Dhaka has already banned. Subsequent investigation may or may not substantiate this suspicion but the basic fact that groups of violent men stalk our lands in search of soft targets remains valid. Consider it from a largely law enforcement angle, or from the standpoint of a holistic analysis of the underlying social, economic and political causes, we need to supplement national strategies with multi-national structures of cooperation.
One could look at the forthcoming bilateral consultations in Islamabad as another attempt at negotiating small confidence building measures or as the long awaited opportunity to inform and revitalise the process with a visionary approach. Haggling over small change is a deeply ingrained sub-continental habit that often invades diplomacy too but what is really needed is a leap of imagination to grasp the great potential for doing things together. The former requires only a low kind of cleverness while the latter demands statesmanship of the highest order.
We should applaud the conversations of the next week if they set the stage for the highest leadership in both the countries—democratically elected and rooted in mainstream parties—to raise the dialogue to heights from which a grand compact becomes clearly visible.
An outside observer of South Asian politics told me the other day that in a recent meeting with Manmohan Singh he found the Indian prime minister mainly focused on problems associated with the Indo-US nuclear deal and an enduring rapprochement with Pakistan.
It was for me a reaffirmation of Manmohan Singh’s evocation of a vision encompassing our two countries, Afghanistan and the lands beyond.
In Pakistan, the PPP component of the new leadership regards a settlement with India as a sacred part of the late Benazir Bhutto’s political legacy. Nawaz Sharif has a valid claim on the enterprise that culminated in him and Atal Bihari Vajpayee signing the Lahore Declaration that included the framework for today’s composite dialogue. The ANP has never faltered in advocating friendly relations with India.
If such a basic convergence of ultimate goals exists in both countries, it should not be impossible to translate it into a roadmap, and no less importantly, a timeline. There are things that can be done in the next few years while others may take longer but there is no excuse for not starting even the most difficult of the journeys.
Things in the region are not static; it is more a question of maximising gains by working together. India and Iran are building up bilateral trade fast. Iran’s communication links with Central Asia and the Herat region of Afghanistan are improving rapidly. Iran, on its own, is investing substantially in its railway network up to Zahidan. Similar improvement on the Pakistani side will open a route of considerable potential to Zahidan-Baam-Turkey. We are already talking about the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. There is great promise in what Iran, Pakistan and India can do together.
In Afghanistan, which provides the land bridge for the gas from Turkmenistan, electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and for other ventures, India and Pakistan must not work at cross purposes. It is a question of time before NATO would be obliged to seek fuller cooperation of the regional states and they ought to work for that development collectively.
India and China seek an exponential increase in bilateral trade during the next decade. Pakistan has a similar objective. Relations of India and Pakistan with China need not be a zero sum game. Like the outgoing Pakistani foreign secretary the new foreign secretary has come to his job from Beijing. Pakistan has no deficit of knowledge when it comes to looking at the big picture. It is time to find the political will to do so.
To talk about these possibilities is not to play down the salience of resolving the Kashmir issue. On the contrary, it is an argument for a more earnest engagement with it.
Apparently the progress made in the secret channel is documented and India would expect Pakistan to begin from that documentation. But its contents are believed to require a great deal more discussion and clarification—bilateral, intra-Kashmir and trilateral i.e. India, Pakistan and the people of Kashmir. This is where the larger vision becomes most relevant. India and Pakistan need a framework of relations that makes that vision a reality.
After the costly confrontation of 2001-2002, there was much logic in a slow and steady accretion of confidence building measures. A bus route here and an opportunity for people-to-people interaction there was a welcome step in sustaining the dialogue.
Such steps are still valuable. But the modest gains through this cautious build-up of mutual trust stand in danger of being eclipsed by the potential loss of dividends in key sectors — energy, poverty alleviation, trade, counter-terrorism, cultural synergies — because of lost time. It is time to move forward decisively.
Tanvir Ahmad Khan can be reached at
tanvir.a.khan@gmail.com
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