India may consider abrogate Indus Water treaty to "punish" Pakistan

[Placemat]

I personally don't wish congress to govern india again ....... I want someone from BJP who is not modi, someone who is mature and people's person, who has the will and can resolve issues through dialogue. Modi and his cabinet have been a disaster dealing with Pakistan, their policies are not helping india, in fact they are more damaging to india than Pakistan.

Possible. The expectations were sky high.
Modi is realising that a hard line policy for Pan is not working. This is because the capability to punish or the wherewithal for absorbing shock is low. That leaves only dialogue. However, he is in a difficult space because decades of taking have not yielded much. So really a sticky situation for all sides. He is not the only one to blame. There are many authors to this story.

What are Modi's successes?

In my opinion... that India can change for the better and central corruption is not the norm.

 

[HalfMoon]

I personally don't wish congress to govern india again ....... I want someone from BJP who is not modi, someone who is mature and people's person, who has the will and can resolve issues through dialogue. Modi and his cabinet have been a disaster dealing with Pakistan, their policies are not helping india, in fact they are more damaging to india than Pakistan.

I know Pakistan loves Modi and has been working overtime to boost the image of Modi by doing acts like Uri, Pathankot & Phulwama. But Modi & BJP are bound to loose. UPA will come back and Rahul Gandhi would be the next PM of India.

In my opinion... that India can change for the better and central corruption is not the norm.

He recovered Zero Black money while the Vijay mallyas, Nirav modis, & Mehul choksis of the world left India under his watch. Enough said.

 

[FuturePAF]

Well if bjp can form govt from a hung house with support then likely for Gadkari.
You are right we see the sound show , but reality is that he has made lot of changes which are good. It is a mixed bag. For success and failure. However I would still say this is better than Upa. Also remember that your expectation could have been any high too. A sane approach would be to see if he has delivered more than failed. If his delivery was better than last govt. Remove expectations from equation


India cannot lose Kashmir because if they do We really believe that Pak will create trouble in other regions. We have manage this and accept this reality.

Where could Pakistan "successfully foment division" in India after a Kashmir Independence (not annexation to Pakistan). Indian Punjab is the only other area that could look to Pakistan for support, but unless the majority of Sikhs there want Independence, as in Kashmir, its not likely. Assam has more to do with Bangladesh and Indian Muslims there, while the Naxalites are supported by at best 1500 "cadres" if the Times of India is to be believed. There are also some Tamils, who still come up time to time.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...h-Naxals/articleshow/10273433.cms?referral=PM

Ultimately Kashmir is drawing to many resources away from being able to provide good governance in India. Pakistan can not undermine what India can properly administer. Besides Pakistan has huge debts and economic development, social services promised and debt payments will keep Pakistan busy.

The key to wooing the people back to the government is economic opportunities up to a point. Kashmir is beyond that point.

 

[Placemat]

I know Pakistan loves Modi and has been working overtime to boost the image of Modi by doing acts like Uri, Pathankot & Phulwama. But Modi & BJP are bound to loose. UPA will come back and Rahul Gandhi would be the next PM of India.



He recovered Zero Black money while the Vijay mallyas, Nirav modis, & Mehul choksis of the world left India under his watch. Enough said.

The modi mallya ran because of him flushing out bad business practices and theft. In Upa they would still be on the system looting and weakening it. I think it was good of Modi.

Where could Pakistan "successfully foment division" in India after a Kashmir Independence (not annexation to Pakistan). Indian Punjab is the only other area that could look to Pakistan for support, but unless the majority of Sikhs there want Independence, as in Kashmir, its not likely. Assam has more to do with Bangladesh and Indian Muslims there, while the Naxalites are supported by at best 1500 "cadres" if the Times of India is to be believed. There are also some Tamils, who still come up time to time.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...h-Naxals/articleshow/10273433.cms?referral=PM

Ultimately Kashmir is drawing to many resources away from being able to provide good governance in India. Pakistan can not undermine what India can properly administer. Besides Pakistan has huge debts and economic development, social services promised and debt payments will keep Pakistan busy.

The key to wooing the people back to the government is economic opportunities up to a point. Kashmir is beyond that point.

I agree with some points . The other points on how Pak can create trouble is a whole new thread. But good on you.
I need to go now.

 

[HalfMoon]

The modi mallya ran because of him flushing out bad business practices and theft. In Upa they would still be on the system looting and weakening it. I think it was good of Modi.

Nice try. If Modi was sincere, they would have been behind bars. He let them leave with all the loot.

 

[Placemat]

Nice try. If Modi was sincere, they would have been behind bars. He let them leave with all the loot.

No.. Mallya so called loot is being recovered. The point here is not one or two billion dollars of loot . It's much larger than that about promoter run business having political nexus to loot public sector bank and public confidence.
The point is there will always be some one who is able to get away but reforming the system is what he is trying to do .
I believe choksi and Nirav will not be spared. Also Mallya is just a scape goat because every business runs this way in India and they would think twice now under this regime. The challenge is to permanently change this behaviour

 

[MultaniGuy]

You need to Google the Swaran Singh-Bhutto talks in the aftermath of Indias fiasco against China in 62. India was under pressure from US to settle Kashmir. Bhutto said "defeated India" should give all of Kashmir.

Huh, I never heard of this.

Sounds like an interesting compromise.

But perhaps this was rejected because it did not include Muslim majority districts of Jammu and Ladakh.

 

[HalfMoon]

The challenge is to permanently change this behaviour

The challenge is to pass the bankruptcy law which will make looting public money legal. Modi is trying hard.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Yes there may be truth to this:
Bhutto Swaran Singh talks 1962
August 4, 2014Foreign Policy, Search for Alternatives: 1962-1971


There is a considerable amount of truth in the statement that the Kashmir issue has always been an obstacle in the way of peaceful and brotherly relations between Pakistan and India. Historically speaking, Kashmir was a predominantly Muslim state under the rule of Hindu Maharaja. However, it failed to cede to either Pakistan or India and became a disputed region which brought about unceasing animosity and bone of contention between the two states. The dispute has always diverted the attentions of both countries from core issues of real significance compelling them not to invest in the people who remain deprived and poor. It would be quite pessimistic to describe that even in the 21st century Kashmir is still a real hot potato between two countries providing them the excuse to carry on the enmity and maintaining their bellicose.



There is no denying the fact that talks have been arranged at numerous occasions to come to a workable solution of the Kashmir issue, but nothing concrete has been achieved. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Swaran Singh, the Indian foreign minister held many rounds of talks in 1962. These talks are beautifully described as “expectations without results”. Ayub Khan, the president of Pakistan demonstrated his anxiousness for bridging the gulf between two countries and come to some sort of negotiated settlement between the two countries. In this backdrop, the delegations met and talks held between the two people as mentioned above. However, the talks were anticipated by many as a futile exercise owing to unremitting hostilities and ideological differences between the two sides.



In 1962, India had to accept a humiliated defeat in Sino-Indian territorial conflict and the embarrassing situation for India made the environment conducive for talks between India and Pakistan. During the Sino-Indian war, the western powers hold Pakistan from pressurizing India for talks which might have been on her terms, provided India an opportunity to do the necessary homework.



First round of talks was set to be held in December 1962, in Rawalpindi. India came up with a plan that they would give some 1500 sq miles of Kashmir valley to Pakistan. But, unfortunately, the talks failed due to the provisional agreement between China and Pakistan that earned criticism from India. The issue was that India claimed territories on Chinese side of Line of Control.



The time for second round of talks was January, 1963. Now the nature of disagreement between the two sides was intellectual. Pakistan was talking of partition based on population while India came up with more workable plan of rational distribution of Kashmir valley. The gap was bridgeable but lack of sincerity from both sides caused unfavorable environment resulting in failure of talks.



Once again the clouds of mistrust disappeared and a narrow window of opportunity was opened up. This time Karachi was the negotiating place where talks were held in February 1963. Suddenly, the calamity once again returned in its worst form, when Indian ambassador for Pakistan went to Calcutta before the opening of next session of talks with papers in his hand titled Kashmir, which clearly indicated that India perceived foreign involvement in the issue. But before joining talks Indian delegation formerly sent letters that discarded any Anglo- America proposal. They got map of Kashmir with them, and were ready to cede more than 1500sqmiles but Pakistan claimed whole the Kashmir valley. For the time being talks ended in smoke.



For the fourth time they met in Calcutta on 12 march 1963. It was obvious that the parties are hard to reconcile, keeping in view that the Indian foreign minister had announced temporary postponement which was resented by U.S and Britain. U.S.A left no stone unturned to pressurize India to stick to talks. Because it was perceived that once they went away the issue will remain unresolved for decades. U.S.A even threatened India of grave consequences, but vain.



In real terms, both sides lacked sincerity and trust. It was understandable that only the ‘give and take policy’ was feasible, but they greatly disregarded this phenomenon and stuck to their stands. Truly, they were not ready to move from their ossified and calcified positions. In the same way, the role of foreign powers further muddied the water and widened the gap between India and Pakistan. Hence talks failed to achieve the desired results.

https://historypak.com/bhutto-swaran-singh-talks-1962/

But no mention where Kashmir valley would be given to Pakistan and the rest with stay with India.

Bhutto is another theatrical man that cost the nation so much. I'm not surprised Bhutto's name pops up. I'll look into it.

Agreed with you, that Bhutto daddy and Bhutto daughter were not so smart people who cost the nation dearly.

Hopefully Zardari grandson will never have the leadership of the nation.

 

[imadul]

Did you add the bracketed part on your own or were the brackets also foretold?

Yours is a good point. Answer could be long but there is an outside chance you being and elite member do some research about Messenger of Islam, there are over 200 million Muslims in India. You may do some research and prove which saying of the Messenger of Islam was false.
One Saying from the book, Musnad Ahmad:
There will be Prophethood for as long as Allah wills it to be, then He will remove it when He wills, then there will be Khilafah on the Prophetic method and it will be for as long as Allah wills, then He will remove it when He wills, then there will be biting Kingship for as long as Allah Wills, then He will remove it when He wills, then there will be oppressive kingship for as long as Allah wills, then he will remove it when He wills, and then there will be Khilafah upon the Prophetic method” and then he remained silent.
Explanation: Prophethood remained for 23 years 632 CE, Khilafa for 30 years, then Umayyah, Abbasaid, Fatmid, Ottomon, and Mughal monarchy ended in early 19th century, and then western form which destroyed nations and cultures and legitimazied gay and lesbian courtship.
Keep your faith but do study Quran and Islam even to find anything false in it.
Peace.

 

[jetray]

Nope it has control over the Koshi (flows though Tibet), Ghaghara River (flows though Tibet), both major tributaries of the Ganges. You also have the Sutlej river of Indian Punjab.

All roads lead to China as the old saying goes.

India can't rely on the monsoon rains anymore, they are showing signs of decline i.e. more rain on far fewer days. It has Indian geologists alarmed, here you go;

A decline in monsoon rainfall since the 1950s has already been observed.

There is also an increasing amount of evidence pointing towards an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events. In 2014, Deepti Singh, a graduate student at Stanford University, and her colleagues analysed daily rainfall records published by the IMD since 1951. Although the average rainfall has reduced by 1mm per day over the last 60 years, Singh notes, “the day to day variability in rainfall during these months has increased, leading to periods of heavy rainfall or prolonged dry spells.”

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news...se-of-erratic-monsoon-sporadic-flooding-55128


According to the Economic Survey 2017-18 (Vol. 1), average annual rainfall in India has declined by about 86mm over the last three decades. This has impacted the agricultural output, and by extension the economy, leading to an approximate 1.5% loss in GDP annually. But why are rain patterns changing, and what does the future hold?

Over the decades, there has been a constant drop in both the southwest and northeast monsoons. Between the 1970s and the last decade, June-to-September rainfall declined by an average of 26mm, while October-to-December rain declined by 33mm. This has reduced the kharif crop produce by 12.8% and the rabi crop produce by 6.7% across the country.

https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2018-07-05-rain-patterns-economy-ecology


Typically increases in total rainfall over India may be in the region of 5-10%, although some climate models suggest more and some less. Climate simulations also show different patterns of rainfall change, so it is difficult to predict how rainfall might change within India.

A 5-10% change in total rainfall sounds small – does it really matter to life in India? The Indian monsoon is remarkably stable as a whole, with a mean total of around 850mm in the months of June to September, and an interannual (year-to-year) variation of only around 10% in most cases. Even these relatively small variations in the Indian monsoon can influence things like agricultural production and the stocks and commodities market, so a 5-10% change on top could have significant impacts.

https://www.rmets.org/resource/indian-monsoon-changing-climate


While there has been no overall change observed in seasonal mean rainfall, there has already been a reduction in the frequency of light-to-moderate rain days, and an increase in the frequency of heavy rain days.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham...d-flood-risk/the-ganges-river-basin-in-india/




Agreed 100%.

If you look at the map ghaghra & kosi join ganga only at the fag end of the course before it runs of into BD. All these rivers start as streams and gain water as they move along. Even if China dams it in their territory the shortfall will not be that much big.

Ghagra for its major part gains more water in nepal. Kosi gets only half of its water from nepal.

In fact river kosi is a more of a headache than any thing else. What holds good for India in kashmir holds good for China as well, damming kosi is not an easy task. In fact building a dam is welcome thing, river kosi has changed path so many times in history that only after Independence it seems to stick to nearby places.

As I said China can dam bhramaputra but that will affect NE but not to that extent to be a big liability for the country as a whole. More ever it will also drag BD into it.

 

[Placemat]

Yours is a good point. Answer could be long but there is an outside chance you being and elite member do some research about Messenger of Islam, there are over 200 million Muslims in India. You may do some research and prove which saying of the Messenger of Islam was false.
One Saying from the book, Musnad Ahmad:
There will be Prophethood for as long as Allah wills it to be, then He will remove it when He wills, then there will be Khilafah on the Prophetic method and it will be for as long as Allah wills, then He will remove it when He wills, then there will be biting Kingship for as long as Allah Wills, then He will remove it when He wills, then there will be oppressive kingship for as long as Allah wills, then he will remove it when He wills, and then there will be Khilafah upon the Prophetic method” and then he remained silent.
Explanation: Prophethood remained for 23 years 632 CE, Khilafa for 30 years, then Umayyah, Abbasaid, Fatmid, Ottomon, and Mughal monarchy ended in early 19th century, and then western form which destroyed nations and cultures and legitimazied gay and lesbian courtship.
Keep your faith but do study Quran and Islam even to find anything false in it.
Peace.

I disagree. All religion is myth. But some well meaning people try to do good. But more people hijack and destroy it for personal or political gain

If you look at the map ghaghra & kosi join ganga only at the fag end of the course before it runs of into BD. All these rivers start as streams and gain water as they move along. Even if China dams it in their territory the shortfall will not be that much big.

Ghagra for its major part gains more water in nepal. Kosi gets only half of its water from nepal.

In fact river kosi is a more of a headache than any thing else. What holds good for India in kashmir holds good for China as well, damming kosi is not an easy task. In fact building a dam is welcome thing, river kosi has changed path so many times in history that only after Independence it seems to stick to nearby places.

As I said China can dam bhramaputra but that will affect NE but not to that extent to be a big liability for the country as a whole. More ever it will also drag BD into it.

Actually damning Brahmapytra will be good because we will be forced to manage better. But need to be careful.of opening the dam to cause flood. But on the whole the pain can be managed. China has much more invested in India. India can ask China intake back their tiktok OPPO and such. Alibaba investment of billions in paytm and other such will be tata . So China has less to gain.

If you look at the map ghaghra & kosi join ganga only at the fag end of the course before it runs of into BD. All these rivers start as streams and gain water as they move along. Even if China dams it in their territory the shortfall will not be that much big.

Ghagra for its major part gains more water in nepal. Kosi gets only half of its water from nepal.

In fact river kosi is a more of a headache than any thing else. What holds good for India in kashmir holds good for China as well, damming kosi is not an easy task. In fact building a dam is welcome thing, river kosi has changed path so many times in history that only after Independence it seems to stick to nearby places.

As I said China can dam bhramaputra but that will affect NE but not to that extent to be a big liability for the country as a whole. More ever it will also drag BD into it.

Already happening
https://qz.com/india/1114843/chinas...000km-tunnel-to-divert-water-away-from-tibet/

China occupies Tibet. Three rivers, that are antecedent, enter India from Tibet. Since these come from Tibet, which is in rain shadow area, these rivers do not bring much water from Tibet, but become large and mighty only on the Indian side of the Himalayas. So we may discuss all the three individually to clear the issue.

1. The Indus river , enters India in the southern Ladakh near Demchok, flows a few hundred kilometres in the Ladakh region and enters Pakistan. Its complete passage in Ladakh region is through the mighty mountains, and it enters Pakistan, while still in the mountain gorges and canyons. The gradient, in India is very less, and as per the Indus water Treaty, the waters of this river are to be used by Pakistan. However a large percentage of the water of this river is due to the small rivulets that enter it in Ladakh.

Being very less gradient, the waters of this river are not suitable for generation of electricity in the Indian part. Since it flows through deep gorges, the water cannot be used for irrigation, and the area is sparsely populated. So India is not much concerned with this river. The waters of Indus cannot be taken to the plains of Indian Punjab. That would need huge investment and ecological problems. If China stops its waters, it will be a loss to its all weather friend, Pakistan. If China impounds the water and then releases it suddenly, there will not be any floods in Ladakh, since the deep gorges will not overflow. Pakistan may store this extra water in the Tarbela dam.

2. The Sutlej river also flows from the lake Mansarovar area. Its waters are used exclusively by India.

But the problem for China is that its length is the shortest of the three rivers that flow from China, in the Tibet region. Since it flows the least distance in Tibet, its water contents are also the smallest of the three rivers, and whatever water is there in this river, is mostly contributed by the Himalayan glaciers in the Indian area. So even if China reduces its flow, it will not be of much significance, but give India an opportunity to revisit the Indus water treaty, on the pretext, that the flow of the rivers has come down, and the Indian Punjab is suffering. Then also Pakistan will be affected more than India, and may have to work out the problem with China.

But even more important than the same is , where is China going to use the water impounded by it. It cannot be used in Tibet, as it is a cold plateau, not suitable for agriculture, water is less, and huge investment will be needed to impound it, store it, and then take it to Chinese fields. The same is not economical. Even if China impounds it to release it at once to put India to despair, the outcome may not be of any help. India has a few big dams on this river, and can bear the shock. But the question is whether China will risk such a big investment only to put India in trouble.

3. The Brahmaputra river traverses a long distance in Tibet, before entering Arunachal Pradesh. But most of its water comes through the small rivers that originate and join it on the Indian side. I have read somewhere that not even 10% of the total water content in this big river is of Tibetan origin, compared to its discharge in the Bay of Bengal. China has made schemes to take its water to the Chinese fields, and may invest a huge sum for the same. But there may not be much loss to India, as most of its water flows to Bangladesh. India may use that much share of the water that it uses presently, and pass on the deficiency to Bangladesh. Then it will be for Bangladesh to negotiate with China, and since both are friends, China may not like to lose a strategic friend like Bangladesh on the issue of water. So, India may not suffer that much as it is made to believe.

Hence China is not in that much an advantageous position in respect to river waters, as India is with respect to Pakistan

 

[Adonis]

Yours is a good point. Answer could be long but there is an outside chance you being and elite member do some research about Messenger of Islam, there are over 200 million Muslims in India. You may do some research and prove which saying of the Messenger of Islam was false.
One Saying from the book, Musnad Ahmad:
There will be Prophethood for as long as Allah wills it to be, then He will remove it when He wills, then there will be Khilafah on the Prophetic method and it will be for as long as Allah wills, then He will remove it when He wills, then there will be biting Kingship for as long as Allah Wills, then He will remove it when He wills, then there will be oppressive kingship for as long as Allah wills, then he will remove it when He wills, and then there will be Khilafah upon the Prophetic method” and then he remained silent.
Explanation: Prophethood remained for 23 years 632 CE, Khilafa for 30 years, then Umayyah, Abbasaid, Fatmid, Ottomon, and Mughal monarchy ended in early 19th century, and then western form which destroyed nations and cultures and legitimazied gay and lesbian courtship.
Keep your faith but do study Quran and Islam even to find anything false in it.
Peace.

Have you tried reading other religion??? Which one? What did you understood? Is it inferior to Islam?

We believe what we are told /taught since our childhood....so even if you will look upon other religion/teachings, it will will have an element of bias. Besides, we should not be preaching others, something which we ourselves cannot do....as then it is called as Hypocrisy...and no religion is more superior than others.....as we all are creation of Allah/God and he never would want a human to kill other human..irrespective of religion.

 

[Placemat]

Having said this India will and should make noise on any diversion by China

 

[MultaniGuy]

I disagree. All religion is myth. But some well meaning people try to do good. But more people hijack and destroy it for personal or political gain


Actually damning Brahmapytra will be good because we will be forced to manage better. But need to be careful.of opening the dam to cause flood. But on the whole the pain can be managed. China has much more invested in India. India can ask China intake back their tiktok OPPO and such. Alibaba investment of billions in paytm and other such will be tata . So China has less to gain.


Already happening
https://qz.com/india/1114843/chinas...000km-tunnel-to-divert-water-away-from-tibet/

China occupies Tibet. Three rivers, that are antecedent, enter India from Tibet. Since these come from Tibet, which is in rain shadow area, these rivers do not bring much water from Tibet, but become large and mighty only on the Indian side of the Himalayas. So we may discuss all the three individually to clear the issue.

1. The Indus river , enters India in the southern Ladakh near Demchok, flows a few hundred kilometres in the Ladakh region and enters Pakistan. Its complete passage in Ladakh region is through the mighty mountains, and it enters Pakistan, while still in the mountain gorges and canyons. The gradient, in India is very less, and as per the Indus water Treaty, the waters of this river are to be used by Pakistan. However a large percentage of the water of this river is due to the small rivulets that enter it in Ladakh.

Being very less gradient, the waters of this river are not suitable for generation of electricity in the Indian part. Since it flows through deep gorges, the water cannot be used for irrigation, and the area is sparsely populated. So India is not much concerned with this river. The waters of Indus cannot be taken to the plains of Indian Punjab. That would need huge investment and ecological problems. If China stops its waters, it will be a loss to its all weather friend, Pakistan. If China impounds the water and then releases it suddenly, there will not be any floods in Ladakh, since the deep gorges will not overflow. Pakistan may store this extra water in the Tarbela dam.

2. The Sutlej river also flows from the lake Mansarovar area. Its waters are used exclusively by India.

But the problem for China is that its length is the shortest of the three rivers that flow from China, in the Tibet region. Since it flows the least distance in Tibet, its water contents are also the smallest of the three rivers, and whatever water is there in this river, is mostly contributed by the Himalayan glaciers in the Indian area. So even if China reduces its flow, it will not be of much significance, but give India an opportunity to revisit the Indus water treaty, on the pretext, that the flow of the rivers has come down, and the Indian Punjab is suffering. Then also Pakistan will be affected more than India, and may have to work out the problem with China.

But even more important than the same is , where is China going to use the water impounded by it. It cannot be used in Tibet, as it is a cold plateau, not suitable for agriculture, water is less, and huge investment will be needed to impound it, store it, and then take it to Chinese fields. The same is not economical. Even if China impounds it to release it at once to put India to despair, the outcome may not be of any help. India has a few big dams on this river, and can bear the shock. But the question is whether China will risk such a big investment only to put India in trouble.

3. The Brahmaputra river traverses a long distance in Tibet, before entering Arunachal Pradesh. But most of its water comes through the small rivers that originate and join it on the Indian side. I have read somewhere that not even 10% of the total water content in this big river is of Tibetan origin, compared to its discharge in the Bay of Bengal. China has made schemes to take its water to the Chinese fields, and may invest a huge sum for the same. But there may not be much loss to India, as most of its water flows to Bangladesh. India may use that much share of the water that it uses presently, and pass on the deficiency to Bangladesh. Then it will be for Bangladesh to negotiate with China, and since both are friends, China may not like to lose a strategic friend like Bangladesh on the issue of water. So, India may not suffer that much as it is made to believe.

Hence China is not in that much an advantageous position in respect to river waters, as India is with respect to Pakistan

You fool, the Indus River can be redirected through Aksai China and Gilgit-Baltistan through a canal system, cutting Indus River from Ladakh.