In a First, Russia Uses an Iran Base for Its Syria Campaign

[ResurgentIran]

is iran run by children? It's like they want to get sanctioned again.

you are pretty

 

[Madali]

500 logic: In WW2, Nazi Germany was the first country to use jet fighters in combat. But then they lost very soon after, that must mean any country that uses jet fighters in war is on its last legs.

Hitler was a vegetarian. Therefore, anyone who doesn't eat meat is going to commit genocide.

 

[ebrahym]

@hellfire with all due respect you put a connection withPakistan which has made me a little how do i put it ....... smiling
but then again it is not to be ignored
you see i am only going to realize implications on Pakistan
Russian presence in Iran
Russia's renewed interest in the region
India's hostility towards china, and cozing up with US, might not attending NAM this time
Russia trying to use Taliban to secure its stan backyard from disturbance
Russia opening to Pakistan
then comes Modis rants of balochistan
here comes CPEC
and chaubahar of course


Now there is not denying one thing that the scenario of South asia has changed if not reversed
Russia is expected to remain largely neutral if not Supporting India
US is likely to be hostile for us for sure now as they realize of India too much(which is totally understandable)
you also mentioned KSA problems with Pakistan
they might want business with india but troubling with pakistan is highly unlikely due to strategic matters
that is where Iran comes in picture with pakistan, given Pakistan's current stance on Yemen and CPEC ,
Iran-Saudi trouble Pakistan has been dealing for a time it will be interesting to see how India can manage it
Chaubahr unlike CPEC has a little time to realization that dont actually come into the picture right now but might have a serious effect in future
and the most important thing for Pakistan right now is not India , or KSA or even Kashmir but Afghanistan
what is happening in Afghanista?
US clearly blaming Pakistan, Afghanistan clearly blaming Pakistan, India trying to have boots on the ground
Pkistan seems invisible in this scenario with no cards in the hand
GHQ is not remotely involved in Afghanistan is it was once, the main policy is to get rid of Afghanistan, establish a border and use Diplomacy(which pakistan has not done ever with Afghanistan)
there is no chance that next election which are far or some internal coup-type situation is going to turn things in our favor
to do so Pakistan will have to go head on with US , US is not gonna leave Afghanistan anytime soon,
wow its way more confusing then i thought it to be
the main finger the Greens are feeling right now is Afghanistan, i seriously dont know how things are gonna end up in our favor but for our survival its essential, which makes Pakistan's killer silence completely ridiculous and out of understanding
but is Pakistan really out of moves?
as you realize Abdullah abdullah was favored candidate but Ashraf ghani ended up with controling power
Ashraf Ghani when new was precieved as pro-pakistani
you see Pkistan have not completely lost soft power in Afghanistan
Chaubahr is a long way , Afghanistan is still dependent on Torkham
the thing is most of Pakistan's assets in Afghanistan are non-useable as after 911 most of them fell into the category of insurgency once precieved as succesors of Afghanistan
what i am saying actually is that All of modis wandering in the west of Pak will be useless if they lose Afghanistan, which is actually the biggest problem for us be it regarding terrorism or diplomatic
if Afghanistan falls out of hand nothing happening across west of Pakistan will matter for Pakistan

 

[Sam.]

Hitler was a vegetarian. Therefore, anyone who doesn't eat meat is going to commit genocide.

We are in trouble

 

[ebrahym]

If the sanctions come back up, neither China nor Russia will back you. US sanctions aren't just against a country, they are applied to any company that trades with the sanctioned country. China and Russia's companies will not be willing to give up billions USD for Iran.

First of all, sanctions aren't completely gone now. It has been somewhat eased but many of the foundations still exist.

The main impacts in sanctions are arms, financial, and energy. In these, it makes it harder for USA to take actions against Russian or Chinese companies. For example, Russian companies aren't selling arms to Americans. So, there won't be any Russian companies affected if USA wants to retaliate against a Russian arms company.

Which, by the way, shows how the policy works, because arm sales to Iran is still supposedly sanctioned but Russia has started selling to Iran. At the same time, travel bans on Iranians like Ghassem Soleimani is not taken seriously by Russia, so how would USA counter that?

about sanctions
they are not completely gone as the later said but yes US sanctions are not going to affect Iran in their dealings with China and russia no matter US apply them or not as you see things are different now
but it will have an effect on dealing with others like India perhaps
you see US has limitations and recently they have increased

 

[ebrahym]

The crux is the game is between Russia and US

yes that is true
but as i said i am only going to comment on aspects regarding Pakistan and no matter US wins in syria or Russia
no matter chaubahr route realizes or not .. and no matter if Modi succed in breaking off KSA from us (which is a complete loss of KSA)no matter the situation in Kashmir turns upto be a complete insurgency or stops as of now
the real problem for Pakistan right now is Afghanistan
Once a pro-pakistani or even a neutral and popular govt.(as you realize pakistan's soft power in AFG is remote but not lost) sits in Kabul
Pakistan is half way there of becoming a true success

Will post and tag you too if I do put up something

i'll be waiting for it
cuz right now India , Russia , Iran are all experimenting with diplomacy but the stance of Pakistan remains well measured and not very "effecting"
so most of turns in the current scenario are going to come from US, India and China respectively
as pakistan's diplomatic doctrine right now is reactive and not a pro-active which is a big big problem

 

[notorious_eagle]

But tickled to see we were right on turkish russian reapproachment too.

It was a natural course of action Sir. It was bound to happen. Economics and Geopolitics ensured this rapprochement, just watch how the supply lines for the rebels start drying up with the passage of time.

Am reading a bigger picture affecting us too. Not sure yet.

Indirectly maybe, but we are far too away from this. It affects Pakistan more, but fortunately Pakistan is not interested because believe it or not the Pakistani Nation as a whole is exhausted with war and is simply looking for a Peace Solution. We are exhausted, demoralized, and the last thing we need is another war. I never thought that in my life time i would see the Pakistani Government say NO to Saudi Arabia for indirect support to FSA and direct support to Saudi Ground Forces in Yemen. That's proof enough that neither the Pakistani Military or Government is looking to get sucked into this Middle Eastern clusterfu**.

Turkish coup attempt which I believe was US backed and Russia acted in support of Erdogan and suspect intelligence intervention by Russia there (hence the new found and immediate bonhomie),

No strong evidence to suggest that, but the writing is on the wall. The mere fact that Putin called Erdogan immediately is proof enough that the Russian's probably picked up some chatter.

Iranian support of Erdogan in face of coup,

That's natural

US General's statement of Indian support in Afghanistan,

Playing to the audience, plenty against India too.

Modi's statement on Baluchistan and Kashmir.

Elections in UP, and playing to the domestic gallery but certainly a blunder as this is the first time an Indian PM has openly acknowledged Indian interference in Balochistan. We always knew that, but it was only a hush hush.

@Star Wars @hellfire @Joe Shearer

Regarding Aleppo, you guys are missing the writing on the wall. This is by far the biggest assembly of Syrian Rebels in one Geographical Point. The rebels have thrown in everything they had, and have placed their reserves on the front lines. That's how desperate they were. No doubt they were able to break through, but from a strategic perspective its a moot point because for the first time such a massive number of Rebels have been assembled in one Geographical Location. They are loosing men by the dozens everyday because the Regime is blasting them with Artillery and Aerial Strikes. Everyday their ranks get smaller, and they are loosing precious commanders. Most of their positions are under constant threat of Artillery, thus casualties are kicking in fast. The rebels have lost of their shock troops, and their elite fighting soldiers are either dead or severely tired.

On the other hand, the Syrian Government have already dispatched the Republican Guard, Tiger Forces, Hezbollah, Iraqi Militas and Iranian Militas. The Russians have upped the ante by placing their backfires much more closer to the targets, meaning they can deliver overwhelming firepower. In an urbanized environment like Aleppo, these backfires can drop a lot of bombs with quite some accuracy and devastate the enemy's defences. On the ground, this looks like a very impressive assembly of Forces for Assad. With the rebels encircled, with only one corridor opened, it looks to me that the Government Forces will try to close the gap and make this into a meat grinder for the Rebels. Attack them from the Air and Artillery, and completely demoralize them before moving in.

Thoughts?

 

[500]

500 logic: In WW2, Nazi Germany was the first country to use jet fighters in combat. But then they lost very soon after, that must mean any country that uses jet fighters in war is on its last legs.

No, thats your ignorant logic. Germans developed jet fighters during the war. Russians had Tu-22 since the beginning of the war in Afghanistan, but almost did not use them. But when it became clear that the war is lost they started massive bombings with them. Especially insane bombings were in last months of the war (October 1988).

 

[ptldM3]

You did not know that most massive use of Tu-22 bombers was in last days of war.


Thats the point. In broken landscape u need more bombs to hits a target.

Now what they suppose to attack in Syria with Tu-22 bombers? - Mobile targets? - Tu-22 is totally useless in it. Urban warfare? - When Tu-22 drops full load it has dispersion of over 1 km. Means it will hit friendly troops. For same reason its totally useless in any kind of CAS. So what can they do? - Destroy rebel held towns and villages far from the frontline with Tu-22? Well lets see.

You have far surpassesed superboy in trolling and BS by leaps and bounds. The Soviet Union and Afghan army had the upper hand in 1985-1986, that is the reason the stingers and other weapons were given to mujahideen, modern day Taliban. In fact Afghanistan did not fall until 1993, well after the Soviet Union left.


The TU-22 has not dropped more then 12 bombs at a time in Syria. So your claim that it has dispersion of over 1 km is BS. Just like your claim that it has a dispersion of "10 football fields". From videos the TU-22 has shown it can bomb targets in a vary small area. And yes I'm aware there are videos of TU-22s purposely bombing large areas as well because at least 2 or 3 bombers release their payload at once.




The TU-22 is far from worthless as you claim. It has far greater range and loiter time then any fighter and it has far greater payload. It can hit many targets in Syria before landing and it also does it cheaper because the bombs are unguided. TU-22 have been used against Isis oil refineries, large concentrations of oil trucks and groupings of fighters and armor.

 

[Joe Shearer]

It was a natural course of action Sir. It was bound to happen. Economics and Geopolitics ensured this rapprochement, just watch how the supply lines for the rebels start drying up with the passage of time.



Indirectly maybe, but we are far too away from this. It affects Pakistan more, but fortunately Pakistan is not interested because believe it or not the Pakistani Nation as a whole is exhausted with war and is simply looking for a Peace Solution. We are exhausted, demoralized, and the last thing we need is another war. I never thought that in my life time i would see the Pakistani Government say NO to Saudi Arabia for indirect support to FSA and direct support to Saudi Ground Forces in Yemen. That's proof enough that neither the Pakistani Military or Government is looking to get sucked into this Middle Eastern clusterfu**.



No strong evidence to suggest that, but the writing is on the wall. The mere fact that Putin called Erdogan immediately is proof enough that the Russian's probably picked up some chatter.



That's natural



Playing to the audience, plenty against India too.



Elections in UP, and playing to the domestic gallery but certainly a blunder as this is the first time an Indian PM has openly acknowledged Indian interference in Balochistan. We always knew that, but it was only a hush hush.

@Star Wars @hellfire @Joe Shearer

Regarding Aleppo, you guys are missing the writing on the wall. This is by far the biggest assembly of Syrian Rebels in one Geographical Point. The rebels have thrown in everything they had, and have placed their reserves on the front lines. That's how desperate they were. No doubt they were able to break through, but from a strategic perspective its a moot point because for the first time such a massive number of Rebels have been assembled in one Geographical Location. They are loosing men by the dozens everyday because the Regime is blasting them with Artillery and Aerial Strikes. Everyday their ranks get smaller, and they are loosing precious commanders. Most of their positions are under constant threat of Artillery, thus casualties are kicking in fast. The rebels have lost of their shock troops, and their elite fighting soldiers are either dead or severely tired.

On the other hand, the Syrian Government have already dispatched the Republican Guard, Tiger Forces, Hezbollah, Iraqi Militas and Iranian Militas. The Russians have upped the ante by placing their backfires much more closer to the targets, meaning they can deliver overwhelming firepower. In an urbanized environment like Aleppo, these backfires can drop a lot of bombs with quite some accuracy and devastate the enemy's defences. On the ground, this looks like a very impressive assembly of Forces for Assad. With the rebels encircled, with only one corridor opened, it looks to me that the Government Forces will try to close the gap and make this into a meat grinder for the Rebels. Attack them from the Air and Artillery, and completely demoralize them before moving in.

Thoughts?

I quite agree. I do not know what exactly happened over the last six months, but after they were driven out of their Iraqi stronghold, the ISIS seems to have suddenly exponentially declined. It does seem to be what you have described, the end-game, and it will be interesting (in an academic sense, with the dreadful thought in the background that we are talking about the impending death or maiming of hundreds of civilians, including women and babies - an excruciating thought at its impending and a feeling of despair at being so helpless) to see if the Russian-Syrian faction can actually chop up the remnants.

I hope the humanitarian corridor works; I hope - if I could, I would pray - that the refugees find refuge, that the Europeans, the Arabs, the Turks don't turn their faces away.

Joe Shearer
born into two families of refugees

http://www.ppu.org.uk/learn/poetry/poetry_against1.html

 

[Malik Alashter]

I am telling historical fact: USSR sent Tu-22 bombers to Afghanistan after realizing that the war is lost. And Afghanistan at least had huge mountains. in Syria WW2 style carpet bombers are totally useless.

The difference between Afghanistan and Syria clear?

In Afghanistan neither the Russians nor the Afghans have the motivation.
In Afghanistan those Islamist weren't cannabises as the one in Syria and Iraq so the ( Mujahideen ) where in better position globally

While in Syria every one hate them even those who calling them moderate terrorists
The Syrians and there alliance are motivated they are fighting defending there families and countries,

 

[500]

You have far surpassesed superboy in trolling and BS by leaps and bounds. The Soviet Union and Afghan army had the upper hand in 1985-1986

In 1986 it became clear that they cant win and need to pull out and then massive use of Tu-22 bombers started. Then in last months of the war in Oct 1988 bombings became insane.

The TU-22 has not dropped more then 12 bombs at a time in Syria. So your claim that it has dispersion of over 1 km is BS.

One of the arguments of Tu-22 deployment in Iran advocators is that now it can carry a full load of 24 bombs.

Just like your claim that it has a dispersion of "10 football fields". From videos the TU-22 has shown it can bomb targets in a vary small area. And yes I'm aware there are videos of TU-22s purposely bombing large areas as well because at least 2 or 3 bombers release their payload at once.

Tu-22 tries to hit is huge building complex 80x70 m size:

Bombs hit 350x50 m area equal to 2.5 football fields but miss the building!

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=he&lat=35.967344&lon=38.984647&z=18&m=b

Same here:

F-16 with cheap JDAM bomb would do much better job at much lower cost.

 

[ptldM3]

In 1986 it became clear that they cant win and need to pull out and then massive use of Tu-22 bombers started. Then in last months of the war in Oct 1988 bombings became insane.

Your opinions arnt facts, in fact everything you say is out of touch with reality. In 1986 the Soviet Union had the upper hand in Afghanistan, they controlled most major population centers. This was the reason stinger missiles were given to the Mujahadeen, again Afghanistan did not fall until 1992.

One of the arguments of Tu-22 deployment in Iran advocators is that now it can carry a full load of 24 bombs.

The TU-22 can actually carry 69 bombs including externally. A payload of 24 bombs is nothing special certainly nothing that would require the use of an airbase in Iran.

Tu-22 tries to hit is huge building complex 80x70 m size:

Bombs hit 350x50 m area equal to 2.5 football fields but miss the building!




F-16 with cheap JDAM bomb would do much better job at much lower cost.

You just drew some random lines

Atleast if you showed some bombs being dropped from point A to point B with reliable distance measurements you would have some argument but drawing random lines proves nothing.


Here let me help you:

Does this look like 2.5 or 10 football fields? Most bombs got a direct hit on that building which is not large, definitely no where near the size of a football stadium.

I can post this all day, while you can continue posting random pictures of lines you drew in MS pain claiming to be large bomb disposal areas yet there not one bomb in any image.

 

[Star Wars]

@notorious_eagle @hellfire

As i have mentioned earlier, What ISIS received in Kobani is pretty much what Rebels are getting in Aleppo. Ever Since ISIS lost their best troops in Kobani against the kurds and the YPG, they have been in a constant state of decline. We are seeing a similar situation arise in Aleppo, Rebels are loosing their best troops, a Loss here means that the Rebels will loose their ability to start any Major offensive for the rest of the civil war. They have already lost too many commanders on the ground, Around 5-6 of them in the last 2-3 days alone. Once SAA liberates Aleppo, then its game over for the rebels. They have lost their final trump card. Its going to be a constant state of decline.I can forsee an end of the ISIS in Lavant and the Rebels within the next 2-3 years. Funny thins is, this win will end up with the Assad regime gaining even more prominence than the west would have liked...

As for the Baluchistan issue, Elections in UP has nothing to do with this. People in UP do not give a shit about Baluchistan. Their local issues gains precedence over any other issues. If Modi had to put this forward from the Redfort itself, it only means there is a deeper game going on here. IT does not mean there will be active funding for militants. There are many countries(other than India) in the region which would like to see the Gwadar and CPEC scuttled. And supporting the Baluchistan issue might be one of the ways to deal with that problem. We will have to wait and see what happens..

 

[notorious_eagle]

@notorious_eagle @hellfire

As i have mentioned earlier, What ISIS received in Kobani is pretty much what Rebels are getting in Aleppo. Ever Since ISIS lost their best troops in Kobani against the kurds and the YPG, they have been in a constant state of decline. We are seeing a similar situation arise in Aleppo, Rebels are loosing their best troops, a Loss here means that the Rebels will loose their ability to start any Major offensive for the rest of the civil war. They have already lost too many commanders on the ground, Around 5-6 of them in the last 2-3 days alone. Once SAA liberates Aleppo, then its game over for the rebels. They have lost their final trump card. Its going to be a constant state of decline.I can forsee an end of the ISIS in Lavant and the Rebels within the next 2-3 years. Funny thins is, this win will end up with the Assad regime gaining even more prominence than the west would have liked...

I agree, Kobani was by far the biggest blunder by ISIS. Its quite evident on the battlefield that they have failed to replace their best soldiers and commanders. Not only are the Rebels loosing many men, they are also loosing lots of equipment. Equipment will be a lot more harder to replace for the Rebels than Men. The corridor might be open for the Rebels but the SAA has been bombarding the corridor as they desire. I haven't seen any major resupply of arms and ammunition. The funny thing is, now the Chinese have chosen to enter the arena on the side of the Government. Just think of the resources whether its money or arms the Chinese bring to the table.

As for the Baluchistan issue, Elections in UP has nothing to do with this. People in UP do not give a shit about Baluchistan. Their local issues gains precedence over any other issues. If Modi had to put this forward from the Redfort itself, it only means there is a deeper game going on here. IT does not mean there will be active funding for militants. There are many countries(other than India) in the region which would like to see the Gwadar and CPEC scuttled. And supporting the Baluchistan issue might be one of the ways to deal with that problem. We will have to wait and see what happens..

Let's save this for another thread

Historical note: Russia started heavy use of Tu-22 bombers in Afghanistan in 1986, when it became clear that the war is lost and they need to pull out. It shows panic and desperation of Putin and Khamenai actually.

Is this a joke? How does that has anything to do with the awesome firepower the TU-22's can deliver on their targets. Should i use the same logic that USAF has been using the B1's and B52's and still unable to defeat the Taliban who are growing stronger everyday. Seriously, you have officially lost all credibility you had. Everything that you predicted has turned out to be wrong.