its not about IK or NS, its not about CORRUPTION, its not about LAW, its not about JUSTICE.
Its about the new POLITICAL ORDER of this country
Just try to recall the political movements of 70, try to recall the political unrest of 77 either after this new POLITICAL EQUILIBRIUM will be achieved between political parties minus ESTABLISHMENT &
this in my opinion will be the most horrible thing which could happen to this country & to its people, or the existing POLITICAL ARRANGEMENT which were made after the Musharraf & for which USA
(role of State Department under Condoleezza Rice) & Army
(under Gen Kayani) who acted as Granter will collapses & new political dynamics will emerge.
Now the question is
Why Now ....
Why another attempt of IK at these moments ... ??
I am sure we all remember
NRO which happened in
October 2007 & its condition of Democracy to be given at least 10 years
(as reported in media) though Supreme Court of Pakistan rejected it in December 2009 but
most of the arrangements (I repeat most of the arrangements, not all ) which were made under this DEAL continued, Bush administration were in the middle of their second term, Gen. Kayani became COAS in
November 2007 & served for
two consecutive terms, even though Musharraf resigned in
August 2008 due to the shift of political center of gravity from him to other quarter, so the point is Political Transitions were happening smoothly as all the grantors of this arrangements were at their respective positions to supervise it & to keep it FUNCTIONAL.
But the basic flaw of NRO was the limitation of its scope in term of future Political Dynamics of the country, secondly it was supposed to cover such a long term which was beyond the tenure of the grantors of this deal Gen. Kayani is nowhere, Obama Administration is near to end of its tenure, Ms. Hillary Clinton who preceded Ms. Condoleeza Rice as the Secretary of State in 2009 even refused to have a meeting with Asif Ali Zardari few months back; during the IK sit-in in Islamabad US State department issued statement in favor of NS government but this time Mr. John Kerry seems not interested in this matter any more.
Nobody seems interested to carry extra baggage.
Now 10 year term is nearing to its end, so another Military Rule .... ??
Gen. Sharif is nearing to the end of his tenure & if we remember the rumors of his extension come out first time during last year in the month of June or July & it was believed that N-league media cell was behind that media campaign, after which
Gen. Sharif categorically announced that he will retire on due date. I need not to mention that not only extension but a full term to Gen. Raheel was also debated in media, & there was another rumor that NS government was considering to increase the term of appointment for all of the Generals from 3 years to 4 years, but we all know the current situation, which indicates that NS tried to get his version of NRO from establishment.
Unlike popular perception that NS is struggling to cut the role of Military in politics; it is NS who want military to continue to participate in politics, but the issue is that
he wants military to take up the a role of his choice, this thing become more clear when the
Dawn published the expected criteria for the selection of new Army Cheif & the very first point of that criteria is
In addition, the position of the candidates on political developments in the country, particularly their stance during the 2014 dharna, will also be a deciding factor.
so the question arise
What could be the Political Developments in the country which are so important for NS ??
Whosoever will become COAS will have to face these immediate issues at Internal & External fronts
First thing which we should understand that Military is over occupied by WOT specially after the number of Operations in Tribal Belt, second thing which is prominent is the capacity build up of Civilian Law Enforcement agencies which has not happened till to date; therefore our military has to remain in those areas for a long time in future as well and almost all of our infantry formations have served in Operational Zones twice or thrice, In addition to this Indian factor is the other issue which is keeping the army busy
so any political engagement of Army beyond the certain point will be an unnecessary burden & this may induce fatigue in troops & may affect moral of soldiers on the ground.
Imran Khan at the time of NRO was not a considerable political entity, but his emergence as a THIRD POLITICAL force certainly affected the traditional political dynamics of the country. After 2013 election whatever share he got in Governance is not only much less then his vote bank in country but more importantly much less to his expectations, he emerged as anti status quo force but now he is more of POLITICAL IRRITANT then a REFORMIST,
he is proving himself as the addition to the already existing set of problems then the part of solution, its seems he is totally isolated from the emerging local & International alignments at Political & Social levels as well as ignoring the need of the society for issue based politics rather his current political approach is more oriented towards Power politics.
KPK is the most effected province from terrorism but IK is not owning the War as he should be in addition to this if we recall the recent
statement of Pervaiz Khata shows the future direction of PTI which may eventually become another regional political party rather then a political party doing politics of Federation If nothing changes. This will effect Army's effort to stabilize the KPK
Without going into detail about the political crises in all provinces, specially in Sindh, Punjab & KPK which will pose many challenges but ther biggest of all is the failure of political parties in those provinces which will obviously create administrative vacuum at provincial level as well, I need not mention the importance of these provinces in this WAR.
On international front new chief will have to keep the phase with developments in Afghanistan specially after the emergence of Daesh & new rounds negotiations b/w Taliban & US; additionally reemergence of Hekmatyar can not be ignored, one additional angle of Afghan issue is the engagements of these elements with India keep in mind any development in Afghanistan will have lot of effect on social & political dynamics of Pakistan.
On the eastern side active LOC & hyper Nationalist Government which may commit any unexpected act just for sake of their internal political consumption will obviously demand more cautious approach in dealing with them but
unfortunately as per stated criteria of NS for the selection of COAS
Another consideration likely to be taken into account would be the prospective candidates’ views on foreign policy issues, particularly ties with India.
So in short because of these reason Army as an institution will maintain a distance and will engage with politicians with cautions in the best interest of country unless Nawaz Sharif repeat Model Town
So what is the solution ... ??
It is clear that Army Chief is having the difficulty in maintaining normal working relations with NS it was Gen. Raheel who intervene last time upon the request of NS but PML-N propagated it differently in media & to clarify the position of Army Chief
ISPR issued statement , that was an attempt to politicize the role of Army in general & COAS in particular, same thing repeated again with the launch of
scandalous media campaign & this time Army as an INSTITUTION responded by issuing joint statement of
Corps Commander’s Conference this thing will happen again with new COAS as well; if NS remain in power, therefore this time Army will surely be hesitant to 'MEDIATE' on behalf of NS in the time of crises which mean this time either Army will not perform any role or will take minimum role.
Because of this
either one has to go or everyone has to go, either Imran has to back off and accept the role of the Judiciary as previously or Nawaz has to concede more space to Imran's Demand.
If the system has to work, if the anarchy must be avoided, if politicians wants to continue they have to redraw the line themselves, they have to restructure new political order themselves; courts may act as facilitator as they have done their part previously that may be the only chance these politicians have.
State can not allow the failure of politicians to be converted as the failure of State, dis-functionality of an administration to be perceived as the dis-functionality of the State at INTERNATIONAL LEVEL. STATE HAS TO REMAIN & HAS TO PROSPER.
