IAF strike into Pakistan - A simulation of sorts

[SQ8]

@Oscar why would we risk our fighters behind enemy lines with the risk of SAM when Brahmos missiles would suffice?

The JF-17 flight however had flown in low and because the MKI's were all focused on the F-16s, they did not pick up the smaller RCS JF-17 before they picked up the JF-17s and engaged.

Sir our phalcon AWACS can stay well within our borders and monitor jets taking of from PAK airspace

Also where is Spy sats in this hypothetical scenario? we launched a Israeli one after 26/11


The AWACS can simultaneously track flying objects within a radius of 800km and has a 'look-down capability' for monitoring movements on the ground or in the sea.

The 2 new AWACS we ordered is more advanced

Again, populated areas.. the Brahmos may not be the best political choice.

The AWACS did pick it up the JF-17s but basic terrain and response time makes a difference. Its not like the MKI's did not engage the JF-17 in time.. just were too preoccupied with the F-16s.

Hi,

I don't know if I missed reading it---how many pilots were able to bail on both sides---and how many went down with their planes?

Only two where I did not see chutes.

 

[untitled]

Again, populated areas.. the Brahmos may not be the best political choice.

Is it possible in this simulator to run this simulation with Brahmos only as per popular demand from across the border ?

 

[Hellfire]

All good work sir however my two cents....unless one side can completely overwhelm the other as was the case in Gulf wars, in an India / Pakistan scenario, it's a well established fact that the attacking force will always suffer more. Some US think tanks also concluded, that provided there's a threat perception, any IAF aircraft entering Pakistan at low level to avoid detection will first have to compromise with soldiers patrolling border areas armed with the likes of Anza and other MANPADS.

And your soldiers, I assume, sit with their MANPADS ready 24x7 with batteries attached? And you have regular point air defences in pillbox like a sentry duty like guard roster??? Seriously, that is the level?

After the Bombay attacks, a similar situation in Ghandinagar clearly indicates a major security failure by the Indian intelligence agencies.

Computer simulation results depend upon the input in the software. The results may be close to what would happen in a conventional battle involving aircraft. What happens after the strike? WOULD Pakistan simply capitulate or is the nuclear threshold already crossed?

Is it right to assume that IAF is ready to strike within 24 hrs? One would expect some formal ultimatum which would give time for PAF to put its own strategy & ground defences in place. Besides, PAF may decide to launch her own attack somewhere, using aircrafts as well as missiles.

Firstly, I do not assume that an air strike will at all be carried out until and unless India is looking for war and secondly, a hypothetical strike will occur in over a couple of hours and not even have 24 hours outside limit ... more like 4-6 hours as targets are pre-designated and weekly Intel briefings do sum up all likely targets in case of a political directive.

There is no special requirement of briefing about the background ... only designated targets with the pre-flight briefing by the task force commanders.

 

[SQ8]

Is it possible in this simulator to run this simulation with Brahmos only as per popular demand from across the border ?

Very possible. But for now I am changing the scenario to one with cold start.. IBG crossing the border, strikes on key PAF airbases.. MANY more aircraft and units on the ground and in the air. Hopefully my poor 3 year old machine can take it.

And your soldiers, I assume, sit with their MANPADS ready 24x7 with batteries attached? And you have regular point air defences in pillbox like a sentry duty like guard roster??? Seriously, that is the level?



Firstly, I do not assume that an air strike will at all be carried out until and unless India is looking for war and secondly, a hypothetical strike will occur in over a couple of hours and not even have 24 hours outside limit ... more like 4-6 hours as targets are pre-designated and weekly Intel briefings do sum up all likely targets in case of a political directive.

There is no special requirement of briefing about the background ... only designated targets with the pre-flight briefing by the task force commanders.

Not to be captain obvious, but after any such incidents.. the alert levels jump pretty high.
The scrambles I have shown wont be scrambles.. the 4-6 hours will have the PAF sprung up like a porcupine.

I gave the IAF a MASSIVE advantage in this fight both in numbers and tactics. Yet it is in certain Indian natures to accept nothing less than them reaching some godlike status.. in an non-interfered computer simulation.

Pithiful to say the least.

 

[Windjammer]

And your soldiers, I assume, sit with their MANPADS ready 24x7 with batteries attached? And you have regular point air defences in pillbox like a sentry duty like guard roster??? Seriously, that is the level?

The thing is some keyboard warriors, steaming under the collar through aggression tend to miss a line here and there...regardless what you read and highlighted, let me enlighten you what i had written....alas just like during Kargil conflict when a couple of your jets felt adventurous. !!

All good work sir however my two cents....unless one side can completely overwhelm the other as was the case in Gulf wars, in an India / Pakistan scenario, it's a well established fact that the attacking force will always suffer more. Some US think tanks also concluded, that provided there's a threat perception, any IAF aircraft entering Pakistan at low level to avoid detection will first have to compromise with soldiers patrolling border areas armed with the likes of Anza and other MANPADS.

 

[Alphacharlie]

@Oscar

What a Joke!! Too much Cannon Fodder

A Salvo of 3 Bhramos from a formation of 3MKI 5km inside Pakistan is enough to Decimate any thing in 300km Radius. Shoot and Scoot.

Formation of 5 Birds ---2 in Fighter sweep and 3 in Ground attack formation is more than enough, 5km in side Pak airspace. I dont even need AWACs support to expose my self, Radars in Passive more are more than enough.

As Crow flies all Targets from Muridke to Lahore are in 50km range, Sargodha 200km

Why should I risk my Assets work 600 Million US ---- We are not coming to Pakistan for a mission like Grabbing Osama. What is the need for me to come in 150 km...We are not keen for AAC.

If any one says we are brave ready to die for my nation-- all Bullshit --Shoot and Scoot. is the rule.

The game should be after above, I wait for you to come in my LAND for Pay Back

 

[Dr Gupta]

How many batteries of HQ-9 systems does Pakistan have? are they primary used to protect urban areas like Islamabad and Rawalpindi? or do they also guard strategic military installations

 

[karakoram]

Thanks for sharing

 

[Dr Gupta]

There would be massive pressure now after the first 24-48 hours from the P5 to cease and respect the LOC/IB statements would be made from Washington and Beijing, escalating the conflict between 2 nuclear powers all eyes would be on us. The Russians/Americans would be monitoring any movement in terms of missiles etc through spy sats too.

Would Pakistani radar systems be able to differentiate between a wave of Brahmos missiles coming towards them and say a Prithvi missile? the reason I ask is that launching missiles is bloody dangerous and they might think it could be nuclear tipped and retaliate when it was just a conventional warhead.

 

[Hellfire]

The thing is some keyboard warriors, steaming under the collar through aggression tend to miss a line here and there...regardless what you read and highlighted, let me enlighten you what i had written....alas just like during Kargil conflict when a couple of your jets felt adventurous. !!

The bold part: If I was a keyboard warrior, I would have notched up a pretty impressive number of posts so far, looking at the duration since I have been a member, would it not be so? Really, you can't relate all with similar yardstick. Anyways, thanks for the reply.

As for the highlighted part which you have quoted, I read that and negated it. Because like me, you are also aware of the SOP of any force and that seeing the history of Indian retaliatory strikes (nil till date) in provocation to a terror attack, the responses and SOPs get diluted over the period of time irrespective of your best efforts because the threat level is negligible. Your soldier is more of a realist .....

In the aforementioned scenario, your first instinct will be to routinely put your troops on alert as India has historically never ever struck irrespective of any terror strike, your troops will be more lax than you can imagine as for them it will be another incident and another waste of time as India won't react as usual. And you will also not be in a position to be able to deploy your integrated air defence nodes or even your point air defence (the light AD Regiments) in adequate time to intercept incoming strike missions which will be aloft before you get the alert as we both know how much time you get to deploy your troops and how much time it actually takes, irrespective of the level of "op readiness" and "op synergism". The flying time to the nearest likely targets is 8-10 minutes for the IAF, and the IAF will be able to carry out a full mission retaliatory strike within the hour if cleared - you know it and I know it.

Now, you really mean to tell me, that in eight minutes your MANPADS will be ready - a process which will require the drawing of the missile canister, the firing mechanism and the battery once the operator reaches the designated magazine/armoury and then move to allotted location in whatever pattern of deployment you want your manpads to deploy in ....?

I specifically asked you if you were serious, because what picture I have just painted is something that will happen ..... irrespective of how well trained your troop of Light AD is ......

May be I am wrong - please do shed light .... while trying not to bait ..... if you can!

As for your Kargil analogy - now you can pass that to someone who knows nothing about high altitude warfare .... does not work here ....

And you really don't know whether the other person is a keyboard warrior or has been there on the ground, rubbing at the frontline ......

 

[Dr Gupta]

@Oscar where is the rapid forces conducting the thrust? is it across the LOC to Pakistani held Kashmir or across the IB?

 

[Hellfire]

Not to be captain obvious, but after any such incidents.. the alert levels jump pretty high.
The scrambles I have shown wont be scrambles.. the 4-6 hours will have the PAF sprung up like a porcupine.

I gave the IAF a MASSIVE advantage in this fight both in numbers and tactics. Yet it is in certain Indian natures to accept nothing less than them reaching some godlike status.. in an non-interfered computer simulation.

Pithiful to say the least.

@Oscar Well I can assure you that I am not a keyboard warrior as windjammer above is assuming. While I avoid getting into these things as for me this forum is all about learning from tonnes of experiences of veterans from all over, yet you have to grant me that much, I ask you, that in any war or in any battle plan, there never is and never was the correct method or one simple solution.

Only in the training institutes is one taught not to 'fight the whites' when the DS gives an exercise solution and you simply shut up and sit or pay with your course gradings.

Having said that, there are few points you may want to consider that the soldier is simple and does not think at a strategic level.

What is the rate of retaliatory strikes by India in response to spectacular terror attacks attributed directly to Pak based groups? Nil till date.

What is the reaction of a simple soldier who is put on alert every time terror strike takes place in the neighbouring country who calls for strikes on your own and you waste time again and again doing nothing while on alert and knowing that the neighbouring country has never ever retaliated and will not as you have first strike nuclear options? He will be disinterested and his reactions and actions will be sub-optimal and he will confirm in his mind that his officer cadre are all cunts!!! So any 'high alert' for him will be just the every other time usual run of the mill drill

Now, you have assumed you will be getting fairly advanced warning of an Indian strike en-route ...... while that itself is flawed.

I concede that your HUMINT capability by penetrating the armed forces of India to a degree of flag officers is commendable and leaves a lot of loop holes in any strike being formulated, but you forget that the targets for any strike are already pre-designated.

Only an authorisation of a strike is required for the strike to complete within an hour of order. There is no requirement of targets, nor of any resources marshalling. Your first and foremost warning will come just before or as soon as the strike mission is aloft .... and all the likely targets are 8 -10 mins flying time for IAF.

The Indian decision making right now is highly PM centric, and you can expect an unilateral decision even without the RM being in the loop and the strikes being carried out without putting the forces also on alert.


That is my only contention

 

[Windjammer]

The bold part: If I was a keyboard warrior, I would have notched up a pretty impressive number of posts so far, looking at the duration since I have been a member, would it not be so? Really, you can't relate all with similar yardstick. Anyways, thanks for the reply.

As for the highlighted part which you have quoted, I read that and negated it. Because like me, you are also aware of the SOP of any force and that seeing the history of Indian retaliatory strikes (nil till date) in provocation to a terror attack, the responses and SOPs get diluted over the period of time irrespective of your best efforts because the threat level is negligible. Your soldier is more of a realist .....

In the aforementioned scenario, your first instinct will be to routinely put your troops on alert as India has historically never ever struck irrespective of any terror strike, your troops will be more lax than you can imagine as for them it will be another incident and another waste of time as India won't react as usual. And you will also not be in a position to be able to deploy your integrated air defence nodes or even your point air defence (the light AD Regiments) in adequate time to intercept incoming strike missions which will be aloft before you get the alert as we both know how much time you get to deploy your troops and how much time it actually takes, irrespective of the level of "op readiness" and "op synergism". The flying time to the nearest likely targets is 8-10 minutes for the IAF, and the IAF will be able to carry out a full mission retaliatory strike within the hour if cleared - you know it and I know it.

Now, you really mean to tell me, that in eight minutes your MANPADS will be ready - a process which will require the drawing of the missile canister, the firing mechanism and the battery once the operator reaches the designated magazine/armoury and then move to allotted location in whatever pattern of deployment you want your manpads to deploy in ....?

I specifically asked you if you were serious, because what picture I have just painted is something that will happen ..... irrespective of how well trained your troop of Light AD is ......

May be I am wrong - please do shed light .... while trying not to bait ..... if you can!

As for your Kargil analogy - now you can pass that to someone who knows nothing about high altitude warfare .... does not work here ....

And you really don't know whether the other person is a keyboard warrior or has been there on the ground, rubbing at the frontline ......

Thank you for the detailed reply, however since it's just an imaginary scenario or a computer simulation, I will keep it short and simple, after an attack on India, it's not as if the IAF will be sitting on ORP and will immediately launch strikes.
Obviously the Indian authorities will asses the situation, select, prepare and arm the aircraft for their required mission and roles....we both know such preparations are time consuming, during all this as OP says, ''Intelligence lines are buzzing''....giving any lax soldier on the other side enough time to tie his laces and load any weapons.... just to add some reality to the scenario, this is what actually transpired after the Mumbai attacks.

2008 air alert
After the 2008 Mumbai attacks, PAF was put on high alert. It deployed to all its wartime locations and started combat air patrols. The speed and intensity of the deployment and PAF's readiness took the Indian Army High Command by surprise and later reports suggest was the main factor in the Indian decision of not going for cross border raids inside Pakistan.[45][46]PAF was issued a Standing Order to launch an immediate counter-attack in case of an air attack from India, after a call from the Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee to the Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari.

 

[Hellfire]

@Oscar where is the rapid forces conducting the thrust? is it across the LOC to Pakistani held Kashmir or across the IB?

No offensive operations will be undertaken across LC which can be/are rapid ..... Mountain warfare is time consuming and needs to be in the domain of deliberate attack. The strength of attacking force has to be built up in approximately 10:1 ratio to be able to achieve any significant gains/success even when attacking a small number of troops like say 20-30 soldiers. Obviously, any significant build up of troops for large scale offensive operations will need humungous marshalling of resources that shall be time consuming and limited by the width and depth of frontage possible for the attacking forces as also in mountains the axes along which you can attack are limited.

Anything from Chamb region to Gujarat short of Sir Creek is fair game, however the major challenges will be subsequent water obstacles existing opposite Indian Punjab and the intervening gap between the subsequent water obstacles being too small for concentration of effective forces to enable canal/river fording operations and attacking along an axis towards Lahore, leaving area south of Amritsar till Jaisalmer as more likely regions with Rajasthan being the best locale as being tankable and plenty of open spaces and the Pakistani nodes are relatively in depth thereby increasing their nuclear threshold!

Thank you for the detailed reply, however since it's just an imaginary scenario or a computer simulation, I will keep it short and simple, after an attack on India, it's not as if the IAF will be sitting on ORP and will immediately launch strikes.

Yes, it is after all computer wargaming and there are a number of possible scenarios depending upon various variables beyond our control.

Thanks.

 

[Butchcassidy]

Ki baneya, jung muk gayi ki halle vi chaldi ?