I don't like the Odds of Plebiscite in Kashmir being in Pak favour. (Opinion).

[Post Colonnial]

1st off, @M.SAAD kudos for original thought. You make a lot of sense by separating the sunni and shia castes within muslims of J&K in the calculus. No shia will vote in favor of Pakistan.

To take your thoughts a bit further, think about it: not all sunnis will favor Pakistan either. A lot of them have seen what's happened there and at least a portion of them will know the impossibility of being a tiny state in that location. I think they'd absolutely foresee a very troublesome independence and they will recall how the tribal hordes of Pakistan were encouraged to attack n 1947. Therefore just like then, they will again choose India for their own security - even the minority that had their set on independence.

In the final word, peaceful human and economic development of India will continue to win over the violent extremism driving Pakistan.

And it is aall a non-starter anyway. If India ever decide to take Pakistani seriously their first demand would be that Pakistan withdraw occupation of p . o. k first; followed by repopulation pundits and others driven away in the past and then reassessment of whether Pakistani request has any merit.

 

[Usama78]

1st off, @M.SAAD kudos for original thought. You make a lot of sense by separating the sunni and shia castes within muslims of J&K in the calculus. No shia will vote in favor of Pakistan.

To take your thoughts a bit further, think about it: not all sunnis will favor Pakistan either. A lot of them have seen what's happened there and at least a portion of them will know the impossibility of being a tiny state in that location. I think they'd absolutely foresee a very troublesome independence and they will recall how the tribal hordes of Pakistan were encouraged to attack n 1947. Therefore just like then, they will again choose India for their own security - even the minority that had their set on independence.

In the final word, peaceful human and economic development of India will continue to win over the violent extremism driving Pakistan.

And it is aall a non-starter anyway. If India ever decide to take Pakistani seriously their first demand would be that Pakistan withdraw occupation of p . o. k first; followed by repopulation pundits and others driven away in the past and then reassessment of whether Pakistani request has any merit.

A completely biased assessment.
You just made India, the Hero & Pakistan, The villain. Such an assessment has no value for me.

 

[mufti]

1st off, @M.SAAD kudos for original thought. You make a lot of sense by separating the sunni and shia castes within muslims of J&K in the calculus. No shia will vote in favor of Pakistan.

To take your thoughts a bit further, think about it: not all sunnis will favor Pakistan either. A lot of them have seen what's happened there and at least a portion of them will know the impossibility of being a tiny state in that location. I think they'd absolutely foresee a very troublesome independence and they will recall how the tribal hordes of Pakistan were encouraged to attack n 1947. Therefore just like then, they will again choose India for their own security - even the minority that had their set on independence.

In the final word, peaceful human and economic development of India will continue to win over the violent extremism driving Pakistan.

And it is aall a non-starter anyway. If India ever decide to take Pakistani seriously their first demand would be that Pakistan withdraw occupation of p . o. k first; followed by repopulation pundits and others driven away in the past and then reassessment of whether Pakistani request has any merit.

We reject your assessment with dignity and honor.

 

[jamahir]

( kashmir : the definitive solution )

 

[Shamain]

You know friends...I am just thinking, Modi should create a legacy of his own..He should start taking up the Kashmir issue, and let us offer about UN referendum..I am sure there will be interesting results if choices are given in J&K to choose only India and Pakistan...Of course India should be worried if independent Kashmir choice is provided..But if independent Kashmir choice is not there, then India should offer this choice to J&K and before that, China should return the China Occupied Kashmir on the Eastern part and return the portion that it got from Pak.

I have a question, the entire j and k including ladakh are a small region.
According to some of ur ppl only vally of kashmir ppl wnat seperation and not jammu and ladakh. They are indifferent.

Earlier the idea of independence included greater kashmir ,the entire gb iok ak .

But whatiwant to know is that the seperatists from k valley want only independent valley or independent entire j and k including ladakh.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Just trying to be realistic here, talking to some IOKmiris on facebook and different forums and doing little bit of research looking at Polls and talking to people who have the insight knowledge about the situation and geography . (Although I know thats not enough but certainly IOKmiris know better about the situation than people of PDF).



I honestly don't think the Odds favour Pakistan much, I know a lot of people are under a different impression here in PDF and in Pakistan, that a lot of people think that Kashmiris want Kashmir to merge with Pakistan (Which is a totally false assumption IMO and a lot of polls suggest otherwise), In case of a plebiscite the battle would strictly be between Joining with India vs. Making Kashmir Independent ,most of those waiving Pakistani flags would most likely vote for Independent Kashmir too, Merely 10% would (probably) vote in favour of Joining Pakistan and we'd be left redfaced in front of the World .



How can we be so sure that a plebicite in Kashmir would favour Pakistan?? In Jammu about 66% of the population is Hindu majority, so its obvious the vote of the about 30% Muslims in that area would go waste, about 65% of Jammu's Muslims are Shias who don't seem to like Pakistan either. The Ladakh region is also Buddhish, Hindu majority thus it'd cede to India too.



In the Kashmir region (the Valley) there is Muslim majority about 65-70% are Sunni Muslims, 15% Hindu & Sikhs, rest Shias , the Shias + Hindu & Sikhs would vote for India, while in the remaining 65% of Sunni Muslims , around 5% are Pro India, remaining is divided in opinion of Pro Pakistan & Pro Independence, and opinion has vastly shifted from being Pro Pakistan to Pro Independence in recent years, right now the chances are that if a plebicite happens the Valley would choose Independence, while Jammu and Ladakh regions would choose India, some Population is the region is undecided and just wanna get on with their lives, so that'd be Swing votes .


So what odds are we counting upon?? There is a close possibility that people in Azad Kashmir could choose Independent Azad Kashmir instead of choosing to be a part of Pakistan..


Idk why I think we have more to lose than gain in this whole scenario and we're being very silly and delusional about it and living in some Disney land with no clue whatsoever of the ground situation, the most we'd get from all this is a Independent Kashmir Valley, idk how it'd work/survive on its own and how it'd would benefit us?





So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

Perhaps this is the reason that Pakistan has refused to initiate the process of a plebicite in Kashmir as per UNSC resolutions.

 

[Shamain]

1st off, @M.SAAD Pakistan withdraw occupation of p . o. k first; followed by repopulation pundits and others driven away in the past and then reassessment of whether Pakistani request has any merit.

@engineer saad @fakhre mirpur dumbo ko yeh bhi nahi pata pundits were never residents of ajk nor were ever driven out,

Perhaps this is the reason that Pakistan has refused to initiate the process of a plebicite in Kashmir as per UNSC resolutions.

Expecting sensible talk from indians is apparently too much to ask

India asks Pakistan to keep UN out of Kashmir - The Express Tribune

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@M.SAAD @fakhre mirpur @engineer saad @Areesh its old but do read

Demographic and Ethnic Democide in Indian Held Kashmir

 

[Abingdonboy]

@engineer saad @fakhre mirpur dumbo ko yeh bhi nahi pata pundits were never residents of ajk nor were ever driven out,



Expecting sensible talk from indians is apparently too much to ask

India asks Pakistan to keep UN out of Kashmir - The Express Tribune

-----------

@M.SAAD @fakhre mirpur @engineer saad @Areesh its old but do read

Demographic and Ethnic Democide in Indian Held Kashmir

Read the UNSC resolution of 1948 and come back to me. The entire onus is on Pakistan to remove ALL of its forces from "Azad" Kashmir, only then will India reduce its presence in JK and the road to plebiscite process can begin. Pakistan has never done so so stop barking about India denying the Kashmiris xyz.

 

[nForce]

You know friends...I am just thinking, Modi should create a legacy of his own..He should start taking up the Kashmir issue, and let us offer about UN referendum..I am sure there will be interesting results if choices are given in J&K to choose only India and Pakistan...Of course India should be worried if independent Kashmir choice is provided..But if independent Kashmir choice is not there, then India should offer this choice to J&K and before that, China should return the China Occupied Kashmir on the Eastern part and return the portion that it got from Pak.

Why do you think India would conduct a plebiscite in Kashmir ? Is China conducting one in their Guangdong province ? Is US doing one in Texas ? Is Pakistan doing one in their Punjab ?

 

[surya kiran]

@M.SAAD @WAJsal @graphican Set aside what our original positions are. India says, J&K is ours. Pakistan says, it is ours.

Now, let us both look at the option of an independent Kashmir. There are 2 powers in the region. India and Pakistan. There is an independent Kashmir created. Both sides, give up their areas and a new sovereign state is born.

In this scenario, we have a state which is land locked. Has a direct access to Afghanistan. Is sitting on the CPEC corridor. Its neighbouring region is the northern areas of Afghanistan and the xinjiang province to the east. Is this something, Pakistan or India want? Can either our country's guarantee that it will not become a US stooge in the area, with aims on China? Can we guarantee that it does not become a ground for fundamentalists to forment more trouble for our countries? Also, Pakistan has spent a hell of a lot of its resources to support the 'Kashmir cause'. Let us not get into what and how they have supported. This support has not been cheap, not monetarily, but also socio-politically. Will it hence, make sense for Pakistan to just back off and not get anything for almost 70 years of hardships? Will India, risk losing control over the rivers and create a situation which says 'Muslim' Kashmir needs to be free from 'Hindu' India?

This scenario is zero sum. Unless, Pakistan now says, we will let go of our part and now are ready for independent Kashmir.

To protect both our interests, what could possibly be achieved keeping in mind the welfare of the affected states? If we remove the option of Independent Kashmir, then its either India or Pakistan. Again, let me not get into who they will choose.

If I were to provide a solution, it would be to introduce a mechanism, where both India and Pakistan designate Kashmir from both sides a Special Administrative Zone. Both sides will control their own sides and will have their own legal frameworks. But, Kashmiris from either side will be allowed to travel to both sides of the border with the help of a special permit. They will be allowed to buy and sell property on either side. But, these will be as per the governing rules of the said country. Kashmiris from Indian side can travel only to the Pak Administered side without visas and same goes for Kashmiris from the Pakistani side. Also, special visa is granted to citizens from either side to travel to the other side, restricting themselves to Kashmir. Meaning, an Indian (from outside J&K) wanting to travel to the Pakadministered side, gets a special visa just for Kashmir, issued by the Pak MeA.

From a constitutional perspective, there will be a State Assembly on both sides. There will be then something similar to a Rajya Sabha/House of Lords, which will be composed of representative sent by State Assembly. This House will be the meeting point for both sides. Any decisions which affects Kashmiris on both sides will need to be compulsorily passed with a 2/3rd majority in the House of Lords.

The LoC becomes the international border. Provide maximum autonomy to the Kashmiris under Article 370. Do the same on the Pak side.

 

[Post Colonnial]

A completely biased assessment.
You just made India, the Hero & Pakistan, The villain. Such an assessment has no value for me.

it wasn't offered with you or anyone else in mind. Simply statement of truth and interpretations.

We reject your assessment with dignity and honor.

Many a times highly dignified people too have refused to face the truth and postponed the ultimate pain.

 

[Kaniska]

I have a question, the entire j and k including ladakh are a small region.
According to some of ur ppl only vally of kashmir ppl wnat seperation and not jammu and ladakh. They are indifferent.

Earlier the idea of independence included greater kashmir ,the entire gb iok ak .

But whatiwant to know is that the seperatists from k valley want only independent valley or independent entire j and k including ladakh.

Separatist are in multiple camps...Prominent among them is Geelani and his followers who like to be part of Pak and another section which want do UN resolution...And i am not sure what other section exactly want...

But yes, even before referendum to happen, China should return all the areas under its control, Pakistan should vacate its territory and then only referendum will happen...And do you really think that if also India accept it in hypothetical scenarios, China will return the land to you?

 

[Nilgiri]

Why not:

A) Creating the working boundary along LoC. De-militarise it to some extent agreed by both sides. Open more checkpoints for trade and people-people movement.

B) Agree to disagree about long term status of Kashmir for now, this can be revisited periodically (see points C and D) to monitor progress of human rights and democratic freedom and representation on both sides.

C) Work to ensure maximum economic growth, peace and stability on both sides of Kashmir to get to point D.

D) Set a target for referendum to be done once a certain per capita income, literacy rate, life expectancy etc (HDI if you will) has been reached in both sides of Kashmir.....or to keep the status quo if both countries desire to at that point.

This is just one possible framework. Surely there are more along such lines. Everyone can benefit, no one needs to lose since with the passage of time and development....people will become more mature on both sides (and hopefully reflected in the politicians as well) as they have more income and confidence on their side (over the viability and strength of their country) and less hollow ego like I see now in many defence forums and even the India-Pak official statements.

However A+B+C+D precondition is that Pakistan dismantles the terror network on it side or at least ensures they have 0 chance to reach the working boundary.

 

[ito]

Why not? I agree, but I just want to know your reasons.

Simla makes Kashmir a bilateral issue and I don't think India will ever revert back to UN resolutions or plebiscite, however may Pakistani cry about UN resolutions. Simla was a major victory and India put in hard work to get it signed. Reverting back to UN resolutions is like wasting all that hard work for nothing.

 

[Burhan Wani]

@Shamain Before AJK liberation there were many Hindu families in our region included poonch. But they were migrated to other areas safely, only few cases of their murders happened on behalf of spy cases and their allegiance with Maharaja Hari Singh.