Hypothetical war scenario between China and India

[Haris Ali2140]

I believe kargil was never a war, Pakistan and India have been in a state of war since 1947, All 4 so called wars are nothing but a group of battles, it gets cold then hot and cold..

There was one in 71.

 

[El Sidd]

If India chooses to challenge China's One China initiative. China may go the 1962 way of settling her territorial disputes with India which is a ceremonial proceeding in most thought process.

The question is: What is the assessment of Chinese on the impact of a destabilized India on their economy and strategic goals.

 

[jaibi]

Large, they're the only other country that can out produce or even dominate India in terms of both infrastructure and industrial production if they gear up for it.

If India chooses to challenge China's One China initiative. China may go the 1962 way of settling her territorial disputes with India which is a ceremonial proceeding in most thought process.

The question is: What is the assessment of Chinese on the impact of a destabilized India on their economy and strategic goals.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Technically that's not true. What do you call a war? The military defines it very carefully and precisely. Therefore, we've to study this subject keenly. If militaries are convinced that a major conflict is coming and are preparing for it thinking of a conventional inward push then they'd train and invest accordingly. In case of a different form of belligerence, such as a small scale intense small war or an unconventional military pressure (i.e. exclusive drone usage or completely cyber operations) then the organisation won't be able to adapt quickly enough to impose its own will in face of such aggression. That's why I'm telling you, total war is not a likely situation. Focus on small wars, and if we look at it that way then I think it'd be a close competition.

Here's my thinking, being completely neutral here: India has had experience in holding multiple fronts simlutaneously such as continuous military presence against active insurgencies. India can back up her military efforts industrially as well and has the number of forces available to reasonably defend supply lines. If there is a prolonged war then India would could realistically come on top.

However, the Chinese side has a much more aggressively trained military. Their inter-services coordination and civil-military relations are smooth and designed for adaptability. Therefore, their aim would be to have an intense small war to inflict as much damage as possible before int'l pressure or regional pressures force a political settlement. Thus, if provoked they'd be razor sharp in their attacks, their strategy would be to delay a prolonged operation and try to finish the fight in the first few rounds. So it's strategically the exact opposite of India (remember, China has had extremely rare military conflicts but has invested heavily in her capabilities and learnt well through allies and geopolitical involvement). So, China would have the upper hand in a small, time bound, focused war that limits territorial incursions to hold especially civilian areas.

Interesting isn't it?

Here's the point I think is important, I think in the current situation, China's military is a in a better shape in terms of the synchronity of manpower (epecially of the officers), technical capabilities (focused on inter-services cooperation) as well as tactical (how to fight) and strategic (victory conditions) features of modern warfare. Therefore, it's more likely that they'd swing the battle in their own interest. I would not write India off though, I think that the bureaucratic incursion starting with the fall of Congress recently had sent the Indian military machine into a more bureaucratic direction and their inter-services cooperation, strategic aims and tactical capabilities as well as focus shows that lapse. India, being closer to a Western democracy in their politics than Pakistan or China had more chances of utilizing their media to highlight the issue, use advisors and readjust. Sadly, the politicalization of the military and lobbying of the media made it impossible. Therefore, instead of learning from the previous episode the focus has been in creating victory conditions. Unless that changes, I think in any situation China would get the upper hand in a confrontation.

My thoughts are based purely on military thinking, not political position or nationalism. This is purely academic speculation or educated guess work. If I offended anyone especially from the two nations I'm discussing then I apologize and wish you to know that that's not my intention.

Regards.

Jaibi dear friend,

Good read. Logical...though what is unsaid is far more interesting...perhaps it should be left as such!

MountainWarfare is a very different affair than rolling the tanks in plains.... obvious reasons....

What I could not take away from your post is the WholisticLeveraging of all Vectors of War which are not men/machine on the frontline...my failure not to see it in your piece.

Would be nice if you have time to educated us about the Vectors of War in the PresentAge!

Mangus

 

[jaibi]

Ustaad jee, please, let me take care of the Moderation situation here and then nominate you for the position of joining Think Tanks then you and I would work together like I promised you, if you remember, I only asked you for some time

Jaibi dear friend,

Good read. Logical...though what is unsaid is far more interesting...perhaps it should be left as such!

MountainWarfare is a very different affair than rolling the tanks in plains.... obvious reasons....

What I could not take away from your post is the WholisticLeveraging of all Vectors of War which are not men/machine on the frontline...my failure not to see it in your piece.

Would be nice if you have time to educated us about the Vectors of War in the PresentAge!

Mangus

 

[El Sidd]

Large, their the only other country that can out produce or even dominate India in terms of both infrastructure and industrial production if they gear up for it.

China does not really see India as a competitor in 2020 looking the rest of the century beyond.

 

[jaibi]

I answered on the possibility, bro

China does not really see India as a competitor in 2020 looking the rest of the century beyond.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Ustaad jee, please, let me take care of the Moderation situation here and then nominate you for the position of joining Think Tanks then you and I would work together like I promised you, if you remember, I only asked you for some time

We shall dance with that idea in private...

You smart arse... didn't take the bait... lovely!!!

You be good and have fun with moderation...how you manage to remain calm and composed while dealing with .......

Later then!

 

[Mentee]

Okay.... I am bit under medication so brain is somewhere else... thought you YoungPaks will take up the Markers in my post and have a field day with it... @StormBreaker

The Outcome of Sino-Indian:

China will do everything possible on all here borders including SouthChinaSea and EastChinaSea to NOT to have any Active/Direct Conflict with any of the states there or their 'protectors' .... it is a matter of ConfucianStatecraft @Cashew

We can not see Sino-Indian War/Conflict separate from the ChineseSeas ...claims, counter claims...countercounterclaims.... add in Hongkong and TaiWan for raising complexity!


Should China be forced or calculates for itself that the Conflict is inevitable... then it needs to do a lot of Calculations about it Comprehesive National Strength... Gain n Loss Calculus... something we cann't/don't/won't....

IndiaPhrands will want IndianCannonFodder to fertilize Himalaya while they move in the ChineseSeas...

NineDashLine is the Chinese First Line of Defence from submarine launched CMx... them Islands in the SouthChinaSea are for tourists...yeah...

As I have elaborated a few times in discourse wtih @N.Siddiqui and @masterchief_mirza the very purpose of creation of this unnatural entity aka India was/is to Keep China Out and Keep Pakistan Down ... The GrandChessboar of the World Island varriation...

Hence, the CombinedWest been spit shinning the lead called Indian... pumping $Trillions in aids and easy trade conditions... good ol Balance Of Power Paradigm

Now the Comprehensive National Strength of China has become such that it is now a Challenger to the CombinedWest Architecture of Power... perhpas more to do with the weight/volume of what China has become and less to do with China directly challenging the WorldOrder... which is still the OldWorldOrder in NewWorldOrder bottle of RainbowFlagDemocracy!

I still have on my to-do ledger Three Pieces on Hybridwar...which you should graze... therein I intende to go in depth the PivotalState, The Heartland, Pakistan...

It will be folly to imagine that the good, valiant Indians will have the grith to attack China directly... remember those flying kicks on the roof top of the world?

So, in my estimation, the Chinese will not allow any change in the current Order of Things so that they can achieve their Planned National Goals... till then they might huff or they might pretend to be dead... but the consolidation in the ChineseSeas is the key to the China's National Survival. CPEC is a relief but cann't be the total subsitute...

So China will first secure the ChineseSeas and then the Mountains...this China is trying to achieve through a myriad of policy instruements... EconomicDiplomacy to frame it for that... lets call it that!

A very simple question that gives us the answer the Force Preparedness is can India with all its BraMouse and Raptorz of the East engage in Battle with China...not War ...but Battle?

On its own that is..without IndiaPhrands with VetoPowers...on its own.. can it?

Now the Outcome on the Mountains is Roads, Roads, Roads... hasn't China been doing just that...but where do these Roads lead to?

The devious Annexation of Sikkin or SouthTibet was don't with full support of the Soviets and the CombinedWest...

The British had active network of Kimz when they left MaqboozaHindustan.... Nizam was annexed with their conset!

Ditto BD!

In case of DirectWar between China and India ...Sikkim, SouthTibet and a belt of land all the way to Ladakh need to become Chinese to call it victory or Indians might pull a wildcard and annex the Chinese territory.

In either case a tangible result of DirectWar would have to be Peace for 100yrs at least with One Clear Asian Hegemon established = Outcome of SinoIndian DirectWar

Your reference to CPEC is valid but that is more the CombinedWest enterprise with the willing/subserviant Indians... and in case of such a scenario of CombinedWest vs China having a go with us as CannonFodder ...well, The Great Game never ended.... did it now?

As I have tried to draw the attention of PakPosters about The Greatest Games is in Town and Pakistan is The Heartland...

Pakistan is the PivotState of Asia and Eurasia .... Winner takes all!

In case of DirectWar ..the good Indians will be running for Diplo support thinking that the CombinedWest will come to the rescue... and SanctionChina.... in that thinking process we can accurately measure the Comprehensive National Strength of India.

DirectWar will break India's back and them roads on the Rooftop of the World will be snaking downhill with some traintracks for company...

Yetti needs protection!

Mangus

@Signalian

Excellent write up, thank you!

I know.

But where is @Mentee. He has disappeared after opening this Pandora's Box.

Mera vote ay dova vallay nibar lo hun aapay

 

[MastanKhan]

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting - Sun Tzu

Hi,

That is incorrect---The Mongols proved it wrong all the time---.

The Romans proved it wrong before them---and the Muslim invaders proved it wrong as well.

Then in the modern time---East India Company proved that proverb wrong---.

And then recently---The Israelis showed us how it is done.

This Sun Tzu / Confuscian term is for the weak minded conniving web weaving type of mentality and does not sit well with the pakistani military mindset.

I think someone forgot to tell the Americans about that term---.

 

[Valar.]

Hi,

That is incorrect---The Mongols proved it wrong all the time---.

The Romans proved it wrong before them---and the Muslim invaders proved it wrong as well.

Then in the modern time---East India Company proved that proverb wrong---.

And then recently---The Israelis showed us how it is done.

This Sun Tzu / Confuscian term is for the weak minded conniving web weaving type of mentality and does not sit well with the pakistani military mindset.

I think someone forgot to tell the Americans about that term---.

Fair enough point if we are talking about an enemy who shows up out of nowhere with Yalghaar or blitzkrieg type mentality ...

Just out of curiousity, did we win against Soviet previously and Americans recently in Afghanistan because of so called military mindset or because of the said confuscian proverb? If it's because of military mindset then where was our same mindset when we were surrendering in Bangladesh or when Yankees were droning us or when we were colonised by Brits?

 

[Philip the Arab]

Simple, China could shit on India If it could establish air bases quickly and use it's rocket artillery, and SRBMs to it's favor and destroy Indian targets by launching in a trajectory above Himalayas.

 

[Old School]

A large number of ruling BJP leadership have Chinese business connections. BJP is a party of mafia elites which puts money above anything and war is the last thing they want. I instead see India joining OBOR and becoming a major proponent at some stage.. On the other hand, the most anti-China elements exist within the western imperialist brainchild Indian Congress Party. That is also why China will never allow Congress to return to power with the massive Chinese cash deposits and business incentives.
In short, business people avoid war at all costs. They don't give a damn about ideologies beyond consolidating power. This theorem applies to both Chinese and Indian elites.

 

[MastanKhan]

Fair enough point if we are talking about an enemy who shows up out of nowhere with Yalghaar or blitzkrieg type mentality ...

Just out of curiousity, did we win against Soviet previously and Americans recently in Afghanistan because of so called military mindset or because of the said confuscian proverb? If it's because of military mindset then where was our same mindset when we were surrendering in Bangladesh or when Yankees were droning us or when we were colonised by Brits?

Hi,

While the americans have killed over two million afghans---and resulting 80000 dead pakistanis and 150 billion dollars economic losses---4 million plus home less afghan and that is just to our neighbor---.

I believe that you definition of winning is strange---.

As of the soviets---if it was not the blood and guts of the afghans and weapons purchased by the americans---the russian invasion of afgwould have other ending---.

Our participation was as direct as it could be without the uniform---. There was no Tsun Tzu practising his art over here---.

We did not win nothing from the americans recently---other than a decimated economy and a destroyed muslim world---.

@Mangus Ortus Novem

Hi,

Do these young people have totally lost their minds and co,,om sense---. More muslims are dead by the invasion of the US military in the region than thru the armies of Chengiz Khan---.

And these muslim boys so blind that they can't even see that---.

 

[fisher1]

If we had foolishly joined war in 1962, we would be surely controlling more Kashmir than we are controlling now

Do you think China would have just handed us Kashmir?