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Hypothetical war scenario between China and India

Janab how are you feeling now?

Recovering slowly, Sir, but steadily; this lock-down tamasha stopped me going to the surgeon for my post-month review, but otherwise matters are as stable as might be expected.

As for the thread, would like to know your opinion on India-China rivalry ... I believe it didn't have to be this way... China and India could have been strategic allies .. Nehru made a strategic blunder by ignoring repeated Chinese requests/attempts to foster good neighbourly relations with India... Pakistan had requested Chinese to settle border issues with them on a number of occasions but the Chinese completely ignored our requests. They were more interested in settling border issues with India. It was only after stubborn refusal of Indians (and even right out insults) to consider Chinese requests that a frustrated China finally decided to settle boundary with Pakistan. The rest is history

I have to agree with your basic formulation; permit me to vent my frustration before fully addressing your point.

What is most annoying is that our case for the cartography in Ladakh is completely phony, considering that that map was created by a wily British geographer who convinced the then Maharaja that his domain should extend to the Kuen Lun Mountains. By insisting on these obviously concocted boundaries, Nehru (whom I otherwise admire for his role in preserving democracy and secularism within India in the early, crucial years) built the entire Indian position on the borders issue on a foundation of sand.

Instead, we had a perfectly good foundation for the undemarcated and also undelineated border between Ladakh and Xijang in the lie of the ground of the Karakorum Mountains; sadly, that is the line that the present Line of Actual Control follows, broadly, and that is the extent of the Sino-Tibetan outreach during the incident in the 1840s, resulting in the Treaty of Leh, that was the only formal treaty between India, represented by the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, and China, represented by its vassal state, Tibet.

Matters were less sticky but still unsound in the east. Tawang Monastery had been a subsidiary of Shigatse for decades, having possibly been established by Shigatse (the seat, incidentally, of the Panchen Lama); some small part of the surrounding territory was also revenue-producing, tax-paying demesne of Tawang. It was only in the rest of the then NEFA that any Indian claim was maintainable.

For an otherwise decent person like Nehru to have issued orders to maintain the false position, and to suppress maps showing any different picture, is difficult to digest for an Indian student.

Coming to your point, there might have been an evolution to today's situation in any case, in terms of geopolitical compulsion, but that is imaginary history pitted against imaginary history. There is no doubt that Chou En Lai tried in his own, somewhat inscrutable way to bring Nehru to a reasonable modus vivendi, and he did all this against the backdrop of Mao's intense personal pique and offended ego. Unfortunately, as we all know, Nehru just could not see what was happening; misled by his wishful thinking, and by the additional gilding of Krishna Menon, the Defence Minister, and Bhola Mallik, the Director IB, he kept pushing deeper and deeper into dangerous territory, capping everything by his bizarre support for a terrible general who was also a Kashmiri Pandit.

You are right in pointing out that China then decided not only to punish Nehru, and India, and the Indian Army, but also to reach out to Pakistan and to settle with Pakistan, a settlement that was so easy that it just goes to show what tremendous damage has been done to India by those few years of self-glorification. We have ended up spending vast fortunes fortifying the northern boundaries, we worked on the Bomb, and we have created a permanent Chinese mind-set that is determined to exert influence in south Asia while denying India any diplomatic influence or presence elsewhere in Asia, especially south-east and north Asia.

Imagine, if you will, what would have happened if those vast revenue streams had flowed into development; into agriculture and industry, into education, and into science and technology. We would not have a PDF in such a case; Pakistan would have been overwhelmed - I say this with no sense of jubilation or triumph, but merely to point to the grim realities of such a scenario - by Indian economic might, perhaps even without a translation of such might into military terms.

I could go on and on, as you have tapped into a reservoir of frustration and anger at our wilfully blind national policy through the years, but these are sentiments that may not be shared by a Pakistani citizen, even though the dire consequences of today's situation have the most sinister implications for his state lesser only than the implications for India.

Thank you for your deft illumination of the key mistake that we made. It is galling to contemplate it, but it is the truth.
 
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Recovering slowly, Sir, but steadily; this lock-down tamasha stopped me going to the surgeon for my post-month review, but otherwise matters are as stable as might be expected.

Wishing you a speedy recovery, sir



I have to agree with your basic formulation; permit me to vent my frustration before fully addressing your point.

What is most annoying is that our case for the cartography in Ladakh is completely phony, considering that that map was created by a wily British geographer who convinced the then Maharaja that his domain should extend to the Kuen Lun Mountains. By insisting on these obviously concocted boundaries, Nehru (whom I otherwise admire for his role in preserving democracy and secularism within India in the early, crucial years) built the entire Indian position on the borders issue on a foundation of sand.

Instead, we had a perfectly good foundation for the undemarcated and also undelineated border between Ladakh and Xijang in the lie of the ground of the Karakorum Mountains; sadly, that is the line that the present Line of Actual Control follows, broadly, and that is the extent of the Sino-Tibetan outreach during the incident in the 1840s, resulting in the Treaty of Leh, that was the only formal treaty between India, represented by the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, and China, represented by its vassal state, Tibet.

Matters were less sticky but still unsound in the east. Tawang Monastery had been a subsidiary of Shigatse for decades, having possibly been established by Shigatse (the seat, incidentally, of the Panchen Lama); some small part of the surrounding territory was also revenue-producing, tax-paying demesne of Tawang. It was only in the rest of the then NEFA that any Indian claim was maintainable.

For an otherwise decent person like Nehru to have issued orders to maintain the false position, and to suppress maps showing any different picture, is difficult to digest for an Indian student.

Coming to your point, there might have been an evolution to today's situation in any case, in terms of geopolitical compulsion, but that is imaginary history pitted against imaginary history. There is no doubt that Chou En Lai tried in his own, somewhat inscrutable way to bring Nehru to a reasonable modus vivendi, and he did all this against the backdrop of Mao's intense personal pique and offended ego. Unfortunately, as we all know, Nehru just could not see what was happening; misled by his wishful thinking, and by the additional gilding of Krishna Menon, the Defence Minister, and Bhola Mallik, the Director IB, he kept pushing deeper and deeper into dangerous territory, capping everything by his bizarre support for a terrible general who was also a Kashmiri Pandit.

You are right in pointing out that China then decided not only to punish Nehru, and India, and the Indian Army, but also to reach out to Pakistan and to settle with Pakistan, a settlement that was so easy that it just goes to show what tremendous damage has been done to India by those few years of self-glorification. We have ended up spending vast fortunes fortifying the northern boundaries, we worked on the Bomb, and we have created a permanent Chinese mind-set that is determined to exert influence in south Asia while denying India any diplomatic influence or presence elsewhere in Asia, especially south-east and north Asia.

Imagine, if you will, what would have happened if those vast revenue streams had flowed into development; into agriculture and industry, into education, and into science and technology. We would not have a PDF in such a case; Pakistan would have been overwhelmed - I say this with no sense of jubilation or triumph, but merely to point to the grim realities of such a scenario - by Indian economic might, perhaps even without a translation of such might into military terms.

I could go on and on, as you have tapped into a reservoir of frustration and anger at our wilfully blind national policy through the years, but these are sentiments that may not be shared by a Pakistani citizen, even though the dire consequences of today's situation have the most sinister implications for his state lesser only than the implications for India.

Thank you for your deft illumination of the key mistake that we made. It is galling to contemplate it, but it is the truth.

Thank you for your opinion, I completely agree with you.


China had ignored and tolerated the movement of some Indian forces into the NEFA and the establishment of a few scattered checkposts on the McMahon line after 1951.

India had ignored the construction of the Sinkiang-Tibet road through Aksai Chin by China in 1956-57. Though Nehru later claimed that the Indians were completely ignorant of the construction of the road, but this only strengthened the Chinese position who maintained that there was no presence of Indian troops in Aksai Chin prior to 1958, and that the Chinese had controlled the area to the exclusion of India. Chou En-Lai rightly pointed out to Nehru of the road as involving "gigantic engineering work" in 1956 and 1957, implying that construction of such a scale could hardly have gone undetected by the Indians if indeed their forces had been anywhere in the Aksai Plain at the time.


"Cession" of the Aksai Plain to the Chinese in exchange for Indian ownership of the NEFA could have been a reasonable deal. Nehru is reliably reported to have stated in late October 1959 sessions of the External Affairs subcommittee that he was willing to begin open negotiations on the determination of the Ladakh border. He emphasized that the disputed area of Ladakh is of "very little importance--uninhabitable, rocky, not a blade of grass"--and went on to imply that he would not be averse to the ultimate cession of that part of eastern Ladakh claimed by the Chinese. General Thimayya believed that the ridge line of the Karakoram Range was the only defensible frontier in the entire Ladakh region, he stated that part of the Tibet Plateau east of the ridge line shown as Indian territory on New Delhi's maps was "militarily indefensible," and had no strategic significance for India.

For some time it appeared that the two sides might reach some agreement on the border issue. Among other reasons of failed negotiations was the fact the Chinese regarded J&K as a disputed territory under international law (a position they maintained while negotiating boundary agreement with Pakistan as well ) and their refusal to discuss with India the segment of boundary west of Karakoram pass was considered by Nehru to be tantamount to questioning the legality of accession of J&K to India.. I believe that the Indian leadership had willed to sort out matters with Chinese peacefully but it was their own flawed and hyper-nationalist Kashmir narrative that didn't let them succeed.
 
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China is a paper dragon. We saw that in Chumar and Dolan. Now a days , even Taiwan threatens China. China is unable to do anything to even Taiwan.
 
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Wishing you a speedy recovery, sir





Thank you for your opinion, I completely agree with you.


China had ignored and tolerated the movement of some Indian forces into the NEFA and the establishment of a few scattered checkposts on the McMahon line after 1951.

India had ignored the construction of the Sinkiang-Tibet road through Aksai Chin by China in 1956-57. Though Nehru later claimed that the Indians were completely ignorant of the construction of the road, but this only strengthened the Chinese position who maintained that there was no presence of Indian troops in Aksai Chin prior to 1958, and that the Chinese had controlled the area to the exclusion of India. Chou En-Lai rightly pointed out to Nehru of the road as involving "gigantic engineering work" in 1956 and 1957, implying that construction of such a scale could hardly have gone undetected by the Indians if indeed their forces had been anywhere in the Aksai Plain at the time.


"Cession" of the Aksai Plain to the Chinese in exchange for Indian ownership of the NEFA could have been a reasonable deal. Nehru is reliably reported to have stated in late October 1959 sessions of the External Affairs subcommittee that he was willing to begin open negotiations on the determination of the Ladakh border. He emphasized that the disputed area of Ladakh is of "very little importance--uninhabitable, rocky, not a blade of grass"--and went on to imply that he would not be averse to the ultimate cession of that part of eastern Ladakh claimed by the Chinese. General Thimayya believed that the ridge line of the Karakoram Range was the only defensible frontier in the entire Ladakh region, he stated that part of the Tibet Plateau east of the ridge line shown as Indian territory on New Delhi's maps was "militarily indefensible," and had no strategic significance for India.

For some time it appeared that the two sides might reach some agreement on the border issue. Among other reasons of failed negotiations was the fact the Chinese regarded J&K as a disputed territory under international law (a position they maintained while negotiating boundary agreement with Pakistan as well ) and their refusal to discuss with India the segment of boundary west of Karakoram pass was considered by Nehru to be tantamount to questioning the legality of accession of J&K to India.. I believe that the Indian leadership had willed to sort out matters with Chinese peacefully but it was their own flawed and hyper-nationalist Kashmir narrative that didn't let them succeed.

I cannot agree more with your balanced and insightful analysis. It is always a pleasure to discuss these issues with you, for the simple reason that your knowledge of the facts and understanding of the possible motives is of an extremely high standard.
 
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And all of Kings Horses, all King's men....

@Mentee Oye Putar Pakistan dae... zameen must always expand... PainduLogic is the TrueLogic @SIPRA

It is imperative to understand the Trigger/Catalyst/Disruptor in any GrandChange .... KhooniVirus is just one example... none knew/calculated...and is now hitting with hammer unseen everyone on their heads....

That the Change is Marching towards Effect is given... what is to be seen Shape it take... its Form is Geometric already!

Regardless, the singular most important question that needs to be positioned is Can We Manage the Aftermath?
 
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Is it the Momentum of History that has yet again given another Vector its nuance?

KhooniVirus still marching ahead....

And then the Indianness struck UAE/GCC .... TwitterWar of sorts... immaterial whether its sactioned by these states or not... but it is happening... the words of HindutvaTerrorism/MuslimGenocide/RSS Goons have become part of the GCC vocabulary....

It is just another Vector in the Momentum of History .... now nuanced...infant.... almost formless so shape of it is out of the realm of speculation...

And then there is Africa.... Africa...Africa.

Oman. Oman. Oman.

OilWar continuing... one can say it is Bluff...Poker or ChikenGame... but it has effects... afershocks and implications...

Can India make a permanent nest in Kabulistan or will Afghania throw Indianness out?

INS will wish to become the Policeman of AfroAsian/AfroPakOcean Region... like to that is... but the Greatest Game is just opening up....

Options for India are now decreasing with each passing week
... there is only so much that the CombinedWest could do... time to prove its worth to its sponsors... or ...well.... End!
 
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@Mentee Oye Putar Pakistan dae ... looks like you have a good pir or your own abilities of foresight are great!

The Dragon is now Permanent Neighbour ... and GalwanRiver-n-Valley has become Chinese!

There was so much trolling, belittling and mocking... by the usual suspcects... but now the PLA has got the good Indians by the neck!

Let us discuss scenarios and probable outcomes.

Hopefully, we stay loyal to Logic and Reason!

Mangus

@The Eagle @Moonlight @LeGenD @PakSword @krash dear Paks, kindly, allow us opportunity to discuss such vital matter here in this section alone!
No doubt you shall honour this humble request! Thankyou!
 
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@Mentee Oye Putar Pakistan dae ... looks like you have a good pir or your own abilities of foresight are great!

The Dragon is now Permanent Neighbour ... and GalwanRiver-n-Valley has become Chinese!

There was so much trolling, belittling and mocking... by the usual suspcects... but now the PLA has got the good Indians by the neck!

Let us discuss scenarios and probable outcomes.

Hopefully, we stay loyal to Logic and Reason!

Mangus

@The Eagle @Moonlight @LeGenD @PakSword @krash dear Paks, kindly, allow us opportunity to discuss such vital matter here in this section alone!
No doubt you shall honour this humble request! Thankyou!


Jotshis (fortune tellers) are lying------.
 
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Is it the Momentum of History that has yet again given another Vector its nuance?

KhooniVirus still marching ahead....

And then the Indianness struck UAE/GCC .... TwitterWar of sorts... immaterial whether its sactioned by these states or not... but it is happening... the words of HindutvaTerrorism/MuslimGenocide/RSS Goons have become part of the GCC vocabulary....

It is just another Vector in the Momentum of History .... now nuanced...infant.... almost formless so shape of it is out of the realm of speculation...

And then there is Africa.... Africa...Africa.

Oman. Oman. Oman.

OilWar continuing... one can say it is Bluff...Poker or ChikenGame... but it has effects... afershocks and implications...

Can India make a permanent nest in Kabulistan or will Afghania throw Indianness out?

INS will wish to become the Policeman of AfroAsian/AfroPakOcean Region... like to that is... but the Greatest Game is just opening up....

Options for India are now decreasing with each passing week
... there is only so much that the CombinedWest could do... time to prove its worth to its sponsors... or ...well.... End!





Once you stop paying them, the Afghania will turn against you and throw you out.
 
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Please correct thread title to: hypothetical scenario of China despatching India with fly swatter.

An excellent assessment. Thats actually what it would be.

The latest humiliation suffered in Ladakh can be described as a starter. If things got more tense - i believe India would run out of body bags. Lets hope sanity prevails and India accepts the status quo.
 
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For some reason I couldn't find any words to describe the situation so, lets see what this Moharam is hiding.


Yes, Young Mentee!

The PLA was able to establish Comprehensive Credebility in Ladakh... even showed extreme restraint to keep the Game in their hands.

The PLA has moved IA and not the other way round...

This on it demonstrates a Plan... the good Indians are reacting to this Plan!

Amassing troops, assets and spending spree...shows the signs of nervousness NOT preparedness by the good Indians.

Besides, Ladakh is NOT the EndGame for the PRC.


We shall rob ourselves of perspective/understanding if we limit our focus to Galwan alone or Ladakh.

IndianOccupied Sikkim, Bhutan, SouthTibet and SevenSisters... all somehow tie neatly together. Bay of Bengal.

Of late BD is making positive overtures to Pakistan.. do see the ChineseHand behind it!

Nepal approved its Maps and then published. So did Pakistan!

These things are components of larger Chinese StrategicObjectives @vi-va

China is now Permanet Neighbour in South/SouthWestAsia ... and the process will expand further... since, UAE has also become StrategicPartner to the Chinese EnergyGiants @StormBreaker @Blacklight @Ark_Angel @PanzerKiel

Not that its a favourite vehicle to convey a concept..but by the looks of things... since, Operation Swift Retort, India has been the first one to Blink in The Game of Chicken!

  • Modi not being able to Utter the Scariest Word : CHINA!!!
  • No more DovalDoctorine against China.
  • No more 'India is ready for TwoFrontWar' from sweet Bippin...

All of the above just exposes the Deep Credebility Crisis of both IndianState and IndianArmedForces.

Daily bravadoz against Pakistan make good TeeVee...but when the Great Red Dragon swallows 60+SqKm of IndianOccupied territory in Ladakh..and makes nest there as well... Bay of Bengal looks more beautiful than ever @Signalian

Allow me to pose a simple question:
What is the Chinese End Game vis-a-vis India?

Let us build strong Hypothesis so that we can develop a Rational Framework to better deciper/understand it.

What must India do to regain its Lost Credebility a SouthAsian Hegemon?

Mangus

PS. The situation is equally dangerous for us. Preparing for all eventualities is vital.
 
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Yes, Young Mentee!

The PLA was able to establish Comprehensive Credebility in Ladakh... even showed extreme restraint to keep the Game in their hands.

The PLA has moved IA and not the other way round...

This on it demonstrates a Plan... the good Indians are reacting to this Plan!

Amassing troops, assets and spending spree...shows the signs of nervousness NOT preparedness by the good Indians.

Besides, Ladakh is NOT the EndGame for the PRC.


We shall rob ourselves of perspective/understanding if we limit our focus to Galwan alone or Ladakh.

IndianOccupied Sikkim, Bhutan, SouthTibet and SevenSisters... all somehow tie neatly together. Bay of Bengal.

Of late BD is making positive overtures to Pakistan.. do see the ChineseHand behind it!

Nepal approved its Maps and then published. So did Pakistan!

These things are components of larger Chinese StrategicObjectives @vi-va

China is now Permanet Neighbour in South/SouthWestAsia ... and the process will expand further... since, UAE has also become StrategicPartner to the Chinese EnergyGiants @StormBreaker @Blacklight @Ark_Angel @PanzerKiel

Not that its a favourite vehicle to convey a concept..but by the looks of things... since, Operation Swift Retort, India has been the first one to Blink in The Game of Chicken!

  • Modi not being able to Utter the Scariest Word : CHINA!!!
  • No more DovalDoctorine against China.
  • No more 'India is ready for TwoFrontWar' from sweet Bippin...

All of the above just exposes the Deep Credebility Crisis of both IndianState and IndianArmedForces.

Daily bravadoz against Pakistan make good TeeVee...but when the Great Red Dragon swallows 60+SqKm of IndianOccupied territory in Ladakh..and makes nest there as well... Bay of Bengal looks more beautiful than ever @Signalian

Allow me to pose a simple question:
What is the Chinese End Game vis-a-vis India?

Let us build strong Hypothesis so that we can develop a Rational Framework to better deciper/understand it.

What must India do to regain its Lost Credebility a SouthAsian Hegemon?

Mangus

PS. The situation is equally dangerous for us. Preparing for all eventualities is vital.
Modi did NOT prepare for war. Past 6 years all talks. Modi is a good populist, master to use propaganda and religion to incite voters bank.
Modi relies on foreign investment for economy and US/Zionist media for image, but those 2 can reverse if Modi doesn't obey.
Army lack of training and fund in past 6 years, India should not provoke neighbors when India has not prepared for major conflict, especially with China.
Now choices are in front of BJP/Modi, base on Modi character, he will sacrifice India national interest for his own image.
 
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@Mentee oye putar Pakistan dae... you started this thread in april 2020 and we read so much hulllah-hulllah by the good Indians about ShooperPauer this or that .... or that China wouldn't dare or there never be war between China and BritishIndia....

But your foresight has been on the mark... the PLA has liberated their territory from the IndianOccupation... albeit not enough/full but freed nevertheless... Chicken'sNeck and Bay-of-Bangal is the real game...

SouthTibet will be freed from IndianOccupation and the SevenSister per default.

Quad?

The good Indians were talking about snatching Tibet away from China... now they have lost Chabhar, Afghanistan as well.

The borders between Pakistan and China will be liberated Ladakh with all historic Budhist territories going back to China!

You keep happy!

Mangus
 
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