Hypothetical - Can IAF be wiped out in 10 hour or 12 hours by PLAAF?

[Figaro]

Indian stalling tactics resemble the Finnish politics of 1939 against the Soviet Union before the winter war. @Joe Shearer

Completely ridiculous comparison ...

 

[Joe Shearer]

Today's NATO is not the NATO of 1980.

In attrition, eventually India will be overwhelmed.

Our logistics inadequacy will retard us at tactical level; our need to spend money to buy, and the long lead-time for these supplies, will retard us at strategic levels. However, the kind of abrading pressure that is required will also be damaging for China, leaving her without the reserves and outreach needed to meet her other, far more important goals, and almost impossible for Pakistan. That leaves Bangladesh and Nepal.

You had a chance to beat India and reach Leh a month back. But I guess you only wanted to scare the Indian Govt. This has backfired.

The right word.

It has led the Indian government, and a lot of other governments, to conclude that facing down China is both possible and desirable.

Pakistan also surprised me by their inactivity. It was a golden opportunity.

Pakistan is in more dire straits than you seem to have realised. At the conceptual level, if we had been speaking of India, the word phrase the wise would have bandied about would have been 'strategic restraint'.

Now the armed forces will be on alert and any movement / offensive will be much difficult.

No comment.

IAF will not shoot first. It is in no position to do so.

PLAAF should have when it had the chance.

Shows that today's military actions are defined more due to ONLY politics rather than strategic situations.

PLA has already delayed and now with the melting snow, further advances will be very risky.
Indian stalling tactics resemble the Finnish politics of 1939 against the Soviet Union before the winter war. @Joe Shearer

 

[AfrazulMandal]

Completely ridiculous comparison ...

To and fro discussions - clearly reminiscent of those days.

One a weak nation, the other an emerging superpower.

I am not insinuating that the aftermath will be similar.

 

[kongn]

Pardon to contradict to this most intersting post and - given my limited time for the moment - I'll try my very best to keep it short and on point only for PLAAF related stuff:



agreed


He I cannot agree:

1. I'm not sure, if India indeed has an operational combat ready ASAT weapon!?
2. and even as it seems so, that China is more focused on the SCS its primary focus since ever was and still is the ETC against Taiwan. Therefore again: For the moment the PLAAF does not care about India but this can easily change within hours if India makes stupid things.
3. And as for the point if India "can count on japanese, aus and american intelligence sharing" I'm also unsure.



You are surely correct with the AH-64, CH-47, C-17 and C-130J, but all other assets are at least comparable to the Chinese ones or simply irrelevant (Do-228) and if "Indian airlift capability is very good" remains to be answered; IMO I'm not convinced. Otherwise the PLAAF now has the Y-20A in larger numbers as well as the Il-76 too and an overall much larger fleet of transport helicopters (Z-8G and Mi-171) ... so here I don't see any advantage for the IAF.




Again the typical "we have more", "many more airfields,more experience", which I would rate at least questionable:

1. The PLAAF is preparing since years in dedicated large scale exercises like and also with international partners (esp. with Pakistan), so again I won't underrate them.
2. Concerning fighters you are correct, the J-16 and J-10C are indeed an issue and as if the MKI are so much superior is also debatable, since the PLAAF won't field any of the outdated types to mentions.




Again WRONG by my understanding: Why do you think the IN has an advantage in the Navy? IMO neither in numbers nor capabilities and systems like brahmos is not an almighty system. Indeed the IN can make great havoc to the PLAN but IMO this won't matter anyway in an all-out war and there won't be any IN anymore afterwards.




And how long will that take? ... the crises is now, not in a few years.

1.The ASAT weapon is based on the same missile as the ADV/PDV which has finished trials quite some time ago and was reported a year ago ready for induction.Actual deployment is secret.
As for intelligence sharing we already have signed pacts in that regard with americans .Just recently japan expanded its agreement.Already USA co ordinates with us the movements of chinese submarines in the region for some time now,and has infact helped us keep tabs on chinese moves in tibet during current issue.

2.Our airlift capability has been amply demonstrated in the current crisis itself.We have mobilized 4 divisions in ladakh along with heavy armour and prithvi/SAM assets far faster than PLA expected due to this.PLAAF airlift assets can't operate with heavy loads from tibetan airfields ,so its not comparable.

3.Its not typical,its a fact.Without airfields your air force numbers do not matter.Sortie rates determine your effectiveness.
Well you can discount experience if you want,we count it as a factor though marginal.
See most of the PLAAF fighters are not optimized for warfare at high altitude.But we learnt from kargil.All of our frontline jets have on board oxygen generators for long endurance,while very few PLAAF jets do.MKI is superior against all other PLAAF types except j-10c,j-16 and su-35.If facing these we have to fight more defensively using terrain,AWACS and ground controlled interception in depth.Until we get more AESA fighters this is indeed a weakness.As are SRBMs.

4.Navy is our trump card essentially and china knows it too.Chinese navy as of yet simply doesnt have enough fleet logistics support or aviation assets to challenge IN in IOR.You have no real operational carrier battle groups for long range missions,one is a testbed other has just entered service.Your j-15 is a flopshow by all accounts.You have only started building your t-55s.You don't yet have enough nuclear submarines of the new generation.Older ones are too noisy.You have lots of good diesel submarines but those are not suited for long range operations far away from shores as they have surface regularly and have limited endurance.They also lack speed.To get to your bases at gwadar and djibouti you will have to cross all of indian peninsular region.We can decimate any ingressing chinese naval battlegroup right around the andman region itself with a combination of wave after wave of brahmos and anti ship missiles deployed from andaman islands,supporting military aircraft MKI,mig29k,P8I from the 'unsinkable carrier' andaman as well as peninsular india.Already squadrons of MKI equipped with air launched brahmos have been activated in south india for this purpose.We can combine this with attacks by our surface fleet with hundreds of more brahmos,as well as diesel submarines lying in ambush near the chokepoints submerged with their batteries off.Here they would be in their element-close to friendly shores and no need for speed.An attack from air,surface and subsurface will shatter PLAN battlegroups entering IOR,So yeah we are not really worried about PLAN at this point in time in IOR.You may be king in SCS,not here.May be in 10 years when you have 3-4 operational CBGs and a dozen good quiet SSN plus lots of more type 55 cruisers you will be in a position,right now if you try it PLAN will be slaughtered.We can blockade malacca and there won't be much china could do about it,which is one of the reasons why it will never want all out escalation.

The other reason being that making permanent enemy out of india guarantees a 2 front war for china in any future conflict which ensures strategic encirclement and defeat for china in the new cold war that is coming.China is worlds 2nd largest economy~ around 60% of USA.Its growth is slowing and population will enter irreversible demographic decline after 2030.So you have until 2030 to really overtake USA economically.Even if you do become number one economy it wont be by much.You already have to face largest and third largest economy(usa and japan).Indis is fifth largest economy and already 3rd largest by PPP.In the next few years we will be 3rd largest by nominal GDP overtaking japan.Making an enemy out of India not only ensures your geographic encirclement,but adds india to the economic balance of powers against you.You really think you can win an economic and military cold war against USA,japan and India at the same time?The answer is no,and your strategists know it.So better behave like a responsible nation or encirclement will be china's fate.Already the whole world is fed up of china due to the coronavirus and continuous harassment of all neighbours.You can attack us now,but you will get a very bloody nose in the mountains with hundreds of thousands of bodies and the destruction of your economy at sea,and a permanent enemy in india after that,even if you manage a marginal victory.Any large scale loss of indian territory that fanboys are dreaming about is not possible due to the sheer numbers of indian military reserves and nuclear escalation .

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

3.Its not typical,its a fact.Without airfields your air force numbers do not matter.Sortie rates determine your effectiveness.

See most of the PLAAF fighters are not optimized for warfare at high altitude.But we learnt from kargil.All of our frontline jets have on board oxygen generators for long endurance,while very few PLAAF jets do.MKI is superior against all other PLAAF types except j-10c,j-16 and su-35.If facing these we have to fight more defensively using terrain,AWACS and ground controlled interception in depth.Until we get more AESA fighters this is indeed a weakness.As are SRBMs.

I will only address these 2. Rest is sort of laughable.

Every aircraft has onboard oxygen generator.

MKI doesn't have AESA radar nor can it datalink with Rafales/Mirages, while PLAAF planes can all datalink with each other including AESA wielding J-10B, J-11B, J-16 and J-20. Speaking of J-20, a single J-20 can disproportionately destroy Indian AWACs with PL-15 long range AAM while MKI has nothing that can destroy Chinese AWACs from long range. This means that IAF will be crippled in coordination and will soon be rendered blind, deaf and mute by electronic warfare and J-20 kicking the legs out from Indian command and control capabilities.

It doesn't matter how awesome MKI is 1v1, IAF is so behind PLAAF in networked information warfare.

 

[kongn]

I will only address these 2. Rest is sort of laughable.

Every aircraft has onboard oxygen generator.

MKI doesn't have AESA radar nor can it datalink with Rafales/Mirages, while PLAAF planes can all datalink with each other including AESA wielding J-10B, J-11B, J-16 and J-20. Speaking of J-20, a single J-20 can disproportionately destroy Indian AWACs with PL-15 long range AAM while MKI has nothing that can destroy Chinese AWACs from long range. This means that IAF will be crippled in coordination and will soon be rendered blind, deaf and mute by electronic warfare and J-20 kicking the legs out from Indian command and control capabilities.

It doesn't matter how awesome MKI is 1v1, IAF is so behind PLAAF in networked information warfare.

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/iaf-t...-radios-in-bid-to-ensure-secure-communication

Already done last year after Feb,was pending for a decade before that.Completed by december 2019 from what i have been told.For rafale it is included within india specific enhancements.
J20 is a lemon,and as of yet simply not mature enough for wartime service.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/iaf-t...-radios-in-bid-to-ensure-secure-communication

Already done last year after Feb,was pending for a decade before that.Completed by december 2019 from what i have been told.For rafale it is included within india specific enhancements.
J20 is a lemon,and as of yet simply not mature enough for wartime service.

J-20 is already equipped. If you think it's a lemon, lol, OK, that's all I have to say. At the very least, it's a flying AESA radar that carries missiles. More than what I can say about the entire IAF.

And you simply bought a radio. It's not a datalink like Link 16 which allows for sensor fusion between aircraft. Voice radio is of limited usefulness.

If it took you a decade to just buy a radio, you are woefully behind.

I've seen delusional Indians but damn.

Just use your head. Indian GDP is 1/5 Chinese, you have less than 1/10th the patents, you don't have AESA radar, you don't have domestic AWACs, you can barely BUY a radio, and you think you can compete with China militarily?

 

[kongn]

J-20 is already equipped. If you think it's a lemon, lol, OK, that's all I have to say. At the very least, it's a flying AESA radar that carries missiles. More than what I can say about the entire IAF.

And you simply bought a radio. It's not a datalink like Link 16 which allows for sensor fusion between aircraft. Voice radio is of limited usefulness.

If it took you a decade to just buy a radio, you are woefully behind.

I've seen delusional Indians but damn.

Just use your head. Indian GDP is 1/5 Chinese, you have less than 1/10th the patents, you don't have AESA radar, you don't have domestic AWACs, you can barely BUY a radio, and you think you can compete with China militarily?

We already have a datalink for airspace defensive purposes,and no thats not a voice radio.We are building our own,this was an emergency purchase.The army SDRs for example just ordered are home made as are naval ones.
We do have AESA radar coming with Rafale,and lots of excellent ground based ones.Tejas mk1a will also be AESA equipped.You have an headstart on us,but thats alright.There are other areas where you are disadvantaged.
We dont need to compete with china militarily,we have enough for a bloodbath in the himalayas and to break your economy in the IOR.If china wants encirclement it will have it.

 

[LeGenD]

@kongn

Just stop. No geopolitics and politics in this thread.

It is not easy to destroy big nations.

Cold War (China vs. USA) and/or potential encirclement of China are geopolitical themes and not a part of this discussion.

Members are allowed to discuss India, China and Pakistani factor in the mix.

American factor can only be discussed in the context of INTEL provided to India for this hypothetical conflict. This is an important consideration - one which is often overlooked.

1.The ASAT weapon is based on the same missile as the ADV/PDV which has finished trials quite some time ago and was reported a year ago ready for induction.Actual deployment is secret.
As for intelligence sharing we already have signed pacts in that regard with americans .Just recently japan expanded its agreement.Already USA co ordinates with us the movements of chinese submarines in the region for some time now,and has infact helped us keep tabs on chinese moves in tibet during current issue.

2.Our airlift capability has been amply demonstrated in the current crisis itself.We have mobilized 4 divisions in ladakh along with heavy armour and prithvi/SAM assets far faster than PLA expected due to this.PLAAF airlift assets can't operate with heavy loads from tibetan airfields ,so its not comparable.

3.Its not typical,its a fact.Without airfields your air force numbers do not matter.Sortie rates determine your effectiveness.
Well you can discount experience if you want,we count it as a factor though marginal.
See most of the PLAAF fighters are not optimized for warfare at high altitude.But we learnt from kargil.All of our frontline jets have on board oxygen generators for long endurance,while very few PLAAF jets do.MKI is superior against all other PLAAF types except j-10c,j-16 and su-35.If facing these we have to fight more defensively using terrain,AWACS and ground controlled interception in depth.Until we get more AESA fighters this is indeed a weakness.As are SRBMs.

4.Navy is our trump card essentially and china knows it too.Chinese navy as of yet simply doesnt have enough fleet logistics support or aviation assets to challenge IN in IOR.You have no real operational carrier battle groups for long range missions,one is a testbed other has just entered service.Your j-15 is a flopshow by all accounts.You have only started building your t-55s.You don't yet have enough nuclear submarines of the new generation.Older ones are too noisy.You have lots of good diesel submarines but those are not suited for long range operations far away from shores as they have surface regularly and have limited endurance.They also lack speed.To get to your bases at gwadar and djibouti you will have to cross all of indian peninsular region.We can decimate any ingressing chinese naval battlegroup right around the andman region itself with a combination of wave after wave of brahmos and anti ship missiles deployed from andaman islands,supporting military aircraft MKI,mig29k,P8I from the 'unsinkable carrier' andaman as well as peninsular india.Already squadrons of MKI equipped with air launched brahmos have been activated in south india for this purpose.We can combine this with attacks by our surface fleet with hundreds of more brahmos,as well as diesel submarines lying in ambush near the chokepoints submerged with their batteries off.Here they would be in their element-close to friendly shores and no need for speed.An attack from air,surface and subsurface will shatter PLAN battlegroups entering IOR,So yeah we are not really worried about PLAN at this point in time in IOR.You may be king in SCS,not here.May be in 10 years when you have 3-4 operational CBGs and a dozen good quiet SSN plus lots of more type 55 cruisers you will be in a position,right now if you try it PLAN will be slaughtered.We can blockade malacca and there won't be much china could do about it,which is one of the reasons why it will never want all out escalation.

The other reason being that making permanent enemy out of india guarantees a 2 front war for china in any future conflict which ensures strategic encirclement and defeat for china in the new cold war that is coming.China is worlds 2nd largest economy~ around 60% of USA.Its growth is slowing and population will enter irreversible demographic decline after 2030.So you have until 2030 to really overtake USA economically.Even if you do become number one economy it wont be by much.You already have to face largest and third largest economy(usa and japan).Indis is fifth largest economy and already 3rd largest by PPP.In the next few years we will be 3rd largest by nominal GDP overtaking japan.Making an enemy out of India not only ensures your geographic encirclement,but adds india to the economic balance of powers against you.You really think you can win an economic and military cold war against USA,japan and India at the same time?The answer is no,and your strategists know it.So better behave like a responsible nation or encirclement will be china's fate.Already the whole world is fed up of china due to the coronavirus and continuous harassment of all neighbours.You can attack us now,but you will get a very bloody nose in the mountains with hundreds of thousands of bodies and the destruction of your economy at sea,and a permanent enemy in india after that,even if you manage a marginal victory.Any large scale loss of indian territory that fanboys are dreaming about is not possible due to the sheer numbers of indian military reserves and nuclear escalation .

My take is that you are underestimating PLAN a bit much. It is not a joke as of late.

Do take a look at the assortment of missiles which the Chinese have developed for PLAN and otherwise by now. Substantial pointers in the following report: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/Books/force-multiplier.pdf

Take your time and read it in full.

You do bring interesting points on the table and it is not difficult to understand that an all-out war between China and India is going to result in massive losses on both sides - something that both cannot afford in spite of usual posturing. China can manage a pyrrhic victory - not worth it.

However, remember this. Indian threat is significant to China because of its nuclear capability, and not on strictly conventional terms. India need to considerably expand its military budget to compete with China otherwise.

 

[dbc]

that's the ground based datalink (involves fiber to relay between ground stations). It is not an air to air tactical datalink like Link 16 used by NATO that can i.e. pass radar info between fighters.

Apparently they do, it may not be fully deployed as suggested by @Nilgiri
My thoughts on the IAF as an institution is well known, so you may be right about the PLAAF demolishing the IAF in combat.

The Integrated Air Command and Control System
The Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) is an automated system for monitoring and controlling of all air operations of the IAF. For network-centric air operations, an air situation picture is created using various sensors and they same is made available at the appropriate tactical and operational levels for controlling air operations. Communications data-link architecture enables this process. Timely, tailored and fused intelligence is integral to all operations. Among the technology requirements are the primary and secondary radars for control and situational awareness, aircraft transponders, flight data processing systems, special software for fully automated systems, conflict alerts and algorithms for possible vectoring solution. Controller pilot data link communications and Operational Data Links (ODL) allow digital messages to be sent between platforms and ground system. Network-centric operations bring in threat of cyber warfare. India has set up a dedicated tri-service agency for handling offensive and defense cyber operations.

Source: Indian Defence Review (Jul-Sep 2019) Vol 34.3

 

[Pakistan First]

10 hours 2 minutes 5 seconds

I must commend the OP on putting forward such an intelligently articulated question.

 

[vishwambhar]

10 hours is just too much.... maybe only USA can do it so fast....

 

[pothead]

OP couldn't be more funny -

Having said that, let's game this shall we?

So, PLAAF would wipe out IAF in 12 hours?
some posters claimed 12 days..

Let's just say, they can try for 100 years and still wouldn't be anywhere close to achieving it.

Scenario1 ->
IAF stupidly flies 300+ AC's and hundreds of other air assets and attacks China.
Yeah, stupid move from IAF, hence will never happen.
In fact, India has very few reasons to commit itself to attack China using it's AF, unless it's a full blown war and there are easy picking on Chinese side.

There are very very few scenarios, which would lead to IAF being the attacker and committing all it's assets to attacking China.
Unless Indian military is stupid and sends IAF into China to get slaughtered, I don't see how this is remotely possible.

Scenario 2 ->
China attacking India using it's PLAAF.
Great, this is the only way PLAAF can wipe out IAF, isn't it?
They can't do it by having PLAAF in bunkers continuously waiting for IAF to come to them...

So, China attacks India.
Commits land troops, does not make sense not to have land troops when you are about to send 3000+ air assets across India (we will get to that later on)
Commits Navy, wait, will they commit their navy or not? If they don't what's stopping India to unleash it's Navy near the straits???!!!

Let's get to the main thrust, PLAAF commits 3000+ air assets?
WAIT....from where are they committing so many air assets?
Has anyone checked how many Air bases PLAAF have near Indian border?
a total of 2..., one in Tibet and other in Xinjiang. Check how far Xinjiang is to Indian border. All other bases are so far that attacking from there would all be pointless.
So, from 2 air bases PLAAF is going to launch it's 3000+ air assets? Anyone else wanna game play this?

Now the second and important point, Chinese needs to attack from a higher altitude, wanna check what that does to a fighter planes payload?

Frankly with current infrastructure, PLAAF cannot even dream of doing air incursions into India.
They would be slaughtered, simply because they would be the attackers, carrying half the payload & having to travel longer distances to attack India.
All India needs to do defend PLAAF attacks.

So, PLAAF attacks India. Since they are the attackers, it means their Air defense assets don't come into play.
Where as India, by virtue of being defender can bring in IAF + all it's air defense assets into play.

Since PLAAF can only commit a certain number of Air assets in attacks due to just having 2 air bases & India can pretty much activate half it's IAF + air defense...wanna guess who would be slaughtered?


Oh, just forgot, After PLAAF commits to attacking India, guess what India would do along with defending it's air?
Activate it's Navy along the straits...

Now let's get to the most important point.
How in the world would PLAAF and Chinese Navy get their assets near India to even attack it?
Don't they need to defend it at all?
Would they risk leaving it empty to attack India?
How in the world would Chinese Navy bring it's Navy to the straits to defend itself & their assets in Indian ocean?

When you game something, at least consider what both sides can bring,
the geography of the battle,
Logistics needed for the battle,
& the infrastructure to support the battle.

10 hours is just too much.... maybe only USA can do it so fast....

Unless they have bases in Pakistan, Bangladesh and SL, it's impossible for USA as well..

 

[Dustom999]

OP couldn't be more funny -

Having said that, let's game this shall we?

So, PLAAF would wipe out IAF in 12 hours?
some posters claimed 12 days..

Let's just say, they can try for 100 years and still wouldn't be anywhere close to achieving it.

Scenario1 ->
IAF stupidly flies 300+ AC's and hundreds of other air assets and attacks China.
Yeah, stupid move from IAF, hence will never happen.
In fact, India has very few reasons to commit itself to attack China using it's AF, unless it's a full blown war and there are easy picking on Chinese side.

There are very very few scenarios, which would lead to IAF being the attacker and committing all it's assets to attacking China.
Unless Indian military is stupid and sends IAF into China to get slaughtered, I don't see how this is remotely possible.

Scenario 2 ->
China attacking India using it's PLAAF.
Great, this is the only way PLAAF can wipe out IAF, isn't it?
They can't do it by having PLAAF in bunkers continuously waiting for IAF to come to them...

So, China attacks India.
Commits land troops, does not make sense not to have land troops when you are about to send 3000+ air assets across India (we will get to that later on)
Commits Navy, wait, will they commit their navy or not? If they don't what's stopping India to unleash it's Navy near the straits???!!!

Let's get to the main thrust, PLAAF commits 3000+ air assets?
WAIT....from where are they committing so many air assets?
Has anyone checked how many Air bases PLAAF have near Indian border?
a total of 2..., one in Tibet and other in Xinjiang. Check how far Xinjiang is to Indian border. All other bases are so far that attacking from there would all be pointless.
So, from 2 air bases PLAAF is going to launch it's 3000+ air assets? Anyone else wanna game play this?

Now the second and important point, Chinese needs to attack from a higher altitude, wanna check what that does to a fighter planes payload?

Frankly with current infrastructure, PLAAF cannot even dream of doing air incursions into India.
They would be slaughtered, simply because they would be the attackers, carrying half the payload & having to travel longer distances to attack India.
All India needs to do defend PLAAF attacks.

So, PLAAF attacks India. Since they are the attackers, it means their Air defense assets don't come into play.
Where as India, by virtue of being defender can bring in IAF + all it's air defense assets into play.

Since PLAAF can only commit a certain number of Air assets in attacks due to just having 2 air bases & India can pretty much activate half it's IAF + air defense...wanna guess who would be slaughtered?


Oh, just forgot, After PLAAF commits to attacking India, guess what India would do along with defending it's air?
Activate it's Navy along the straits...

Now let's get to the most important point.
How in the world would PLAAF and Chinese Navy get their assets near India to even attack it?
Don't they need to defend it at all?
Would they risk leaving it empty to attack India?
How in the world would Chinese Navy bring it's Navy to the straits to defend itself & their assets in Indian ocean?

When you game something, at least consider what both sides can bring,
the geography of the battle,
Logistics needed for the battle,
& the infrastructure to support the battle.



Unless they have bases in Pakistan, Bangladesh and SL, it's impossible for USA as well..

It takes my lid off as soon as I see people typing like this! (.....) (???!!!!???!!!?)
My eyes bleed and head starts spinning. It is such a bad reading experience.
Whats the deal with excessive dots and ?? And then that exclamation, multiple times.
Is that a fashion thing? Is it in these days? I am sorry i am totally out of sync.

Anyway. One does not need to compromise on weapons load while taking off from a elevated airfield. No-one does that. I don't know who planted that idea.
Professional air forces take off from high elevation with full weapon loads, but reduced fuel. They refuel again after being airborne.
Secondly, why would china need 3000 of the machines to come in?

 

[Khan vilatey]

Completely ridiculous comparison ...

someone has been watching the great on Netflix lol

kv