How will Turkey respond to Assad's Idlib operation?

[dBSPL]

They will talk to NATO and then act.

Wrong answer. Istanbul Summit (Russia - Germany - France - Turkey) and Sochi Summit (Russia - Iran - Turkey) will be held consecutively. Turkey will act according to the road map to be issued here.

 

[Yatağanlı]

Wrong answer. Istanbul Summit (Russia - Germany - France - Turkey) and Sochi Summit (Russia - Iran - Turkey) will be held consecutively. Turkey will act according to the road map to be issued here.

The De-escalation zone was the agreement. Now Russia is shitting on it. How are we sure the Russians won't shit on the new agreement in the same way?

 

[Jackal131]

1. Observation posts were put there to keep FSA etc in. Not to keep SAA / Russians out. That was the deal from the beginning.

2. Before everyone starts crying about Russia turning on us have a long hard think about how many armed UAVs have attacked their airbase from Ildib. We shit on them.

Of all nationalities us Turks should know exactly what it means when military / government cannot control armed groups in its territory of responsibility - allowing them to attack other nations / military units.

How many times have we entered Iraq because they cant control PKK. We are in Syria for that very reason. And Russians strike Ildib for the same reason. If we had a right to enter Iraq and Syria, the Russians have a right to bomb ildib.

Swallow the hard fact pill lads.

 

[era_shield]

1. Observation posts were put there to keep FSA etc in. Not to keep SAA / Russians out. That was the deal from the beginning.

2. Before everyone starts crying about Russia turning on us have a long hard think about how many armed UAVs have attacked their airbase from Ildib. We shit on them.

Of all nationalities us Turks should know exactly what it means when military / government cannot control armed groups in its territory of responsibility - allowing them to attack other nations / military units.

How many times have we entered Iraq because they cant control PKK. We are in Syria for that very reason. And Russians strike Ildib for the same reason. If we had a right to enter Iraq and Syria, the Russians have a right to bomb ildib.

Swallow the hard fact pill lads.

Virtually every single thing you said here is straight up regurgitated Russian propaganda.

 

[what]

Its time for the rebels to decide their fate. Reconcilation or pretty certain death.

 

[azbaroj]

It will be major blow to Erdoğan, if Turkish soldiers die due to Idlib Operation. Turkey cant stop Syria. Unfortunately, Turkey is an isolated actor currently. Greece+GreeekCyrpus+Egypt+Israel+Saudi+US+PKK, on the other hand Iran+Syria+Iraq+Lebanon+Russia+China and Turkey by itself with no allies. As you can see, Turkey will abide. Erdoğan will find some way to save face.

It is realistic for Erdogan or Turkey to negotiate with Russia for an honourable reconcilation and ensure of safety of Tuskish backed militias . Turkey need to honour the integrity of Syria . Putin is waiting for refering . Turkey can negotiate with Syria . A conflict will only benefit Israel it will be dangerous for Turkey . Turkey has no meaningful alley .

 

[Jackal131]

Virtually every single thing you said here is straight up regurgitated Russian propaganda.

Unfortunately my friend. I am going off what I hear from men in those outposts.

And it is the very reason I hate politics and politicians.

I dont agree with Russian bombing of Ildib - I am pointing out that politically we have given them their excuse or casus beli to do as they are doing. Russians merely point out that if Turkey can cross territory to go after groups other nations cannot control - then Turkey must allow other nations to attack groups Turkey cannot control.

You are ignoring the elephant in the room - instead of taking offense to what I write - why didn't you question why is Russia allowed to bomb next to our outposts. Why is the only thing our outposts do is reinforce themselves with concrete walls. Take it from someone who knows from experience what those walls are for, they are being installed to protect outposts from shrapnel and large caliber artillery / long range weapons - while villages next to our outposts get bombed. Why aren't you asking that question.

Our military does nothing because politicians once again screw our soldiers and endanger their lives. Not because our military cant do anything. Politics is politics, politicians are politicians, they dont care about the men on the ground.

You can value pride and propaganda - I value the lives of my Friends serving there now.

 

[Taskforce]

Erdogan will talk about Allah and will ask people to pray while Assad pulls out his little friend

 

[313ghazi]

He's in a tough spot now. He either goes all in, in the hope that Russia won't match his ante, or he finds a face saving way out. No point losing young mens lives for politics alone.

 

[saif123]

Turkey need to fightback this aggression. If Russian terrorist Putin need help Turkey can keep a check if really any drone flies from this area towards Humaimeem base and even shoot it down. Drone attacks cant be a reason to massacre thousands in Idlib by terrorist Asad and his terrorist external allies Iran, Hizb al Laat and Russia who are killing and cleansing the majority Sunni Muslims population of Syria.

 

[Exxxe]

It's quite complicated
1) russia cant attack Idlib because turkey's troops and such attack would end the Astana initiative giving the west a happy smile

2) turkey cant attack Idlib ( alqaeda ) because of refugees and difficulty of such operation too many civilians and militants alike besides not all FSA factions would support such attack
Also al Assad will take full advantage and sabotage things ( like he did with the assassinations )

3) the west ended its support for west of syria and solely focused on YPG which now seem to be of zero importance to Assad so either there is an agreement or Assad is just a pussy both which is bad news for turkey

4) right now all parties interested in Idlib are stuck and cant do shit without escalating and suffering real hurtful losses and syria is just now coming out victorias it cant afford such a setback especially with the west and the gulf lurking waiting for a chance to save their project ( may I remind of of the strikes they conduct every once and a while because of chemical weapons they are buying time and trying to find a break )

5) the west / israel / the gulf are interested in finding a loophole / weakness in turkey russia iran cooperation and break it attack on Idlib will do that for them

So as I see it the only thing solving Idlib is the new constitution they are working on and the Sochi summits that's it.
Military attack is a loss to all parties and whoever wins it his victory would be meaningless compared to what is lost

 

[Dai Toruko]

 

[what]

Turkey need to fightback this aggression. If Russian terrorist Putin need help Turkey can keep a check if really any drone flies from this area towards Humaimeem base and even shoot it down. Drone attacks cant be a reason to massacre thousands in Idlib by terrorist Asad and his terrorist external allies Iran, Hizb al Laat and Russia who are killing and cleansing the majority Sunni Muslims population of Syria.

There is literally no value to be gained from helping/defending Idlib. They dont listen to Turkish demands, they are refusing to take part in a solution process and they harbor former Al Qaida affiliates. HTS as their name is now has been put on the Turkish terror list a couple of days ago. HTS controlls the majority of Idlib.

As for humanitarian issues: refugees can take shelter in Afrin and Northern Aleppo or choose to go to government controlled areas. Turkey has not once failed to take care of the refugees in Syria, so that should not really be an issue.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Don't count your chicken before they are hatched!!! Idlib's future will be decided by Turkey, Russia and Iran on the table for a change!!! It's been a hundred years!!! How time flies....

The last week has brought significant changes to Turkey's regional and global status, as the United States has imposed sanctions on a key NATO ally (?!) and is acting directly against the interest and internal security of Turkey in Syria.

Simultaneously, Russia seems to have backstabbed Turkey in Syria and started bombing Idlib in preparation for a large-scale Assad operation on the final remaining rebel territory. Assad has been moving masses of troops armour north to Idlib, where Turkey has several observation posts.

While Assad, Russia, the USA clearly are preparing themselves for their next move against Turkey with troop deployments, airstrikes and promises of conquest, we have heard and seen little from Turkey. We have observed no/little military movements on the Turkish side, despite claims from Erdogan on Idlib being a red line?

I hoped we could start a fruitful discussion on exploring Turkey's strategy on Idlib, if there is any? What preparation has the military taken to defend their outpost and what do Turkish leaders say about what's going on?

Hoping for a favourable outcome for Turkey and the safety of deployed soldiers in Idlib/Turkey.

Turkey has already observers inside Idlib. Coordinated surgical attacks against El Kaida type terror groups are possible to minimize civilian casualties. FSA controls ~40% of Idlib, which is accepted by Russia. Worst case scenario IMO might be to put the refugees there under the direct Turkish protection.

By the by, since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the ME hasn't seen a single day of peace!! This is the ultimate Divine message - only if there are any takers....

 

[T-123456]

The only solution for Syria is the creation of a democratic state of Northern Syria supported and protected by Turkey. Only in this way can refugees go home to a secure environment.

This is exactly what will happen.
Syria will be divided in three parts,North-East for the Kurds(backed by the US/Israel),North-West for the FSA(backed by Türkiye/Qatar) the smallest part,and the rest for Assad(backed by Russia/Iran).