How to Annihilate the invading Indian Armour ?
Introduction
Been thinking about it ever since my close friend in the east has been developing its so called "cold start doctrine" which was envisioned to "punish" Pakistan without sparking a full scale nuclear war.
India is currently giving final touches to this doctrine through mass exercises like "Operation Vijayee Bhava" involving some 50,000 troops , battle tanks , APCs and air support.
Introduction to Cold Start
Cold Start is a military doctrine developed by the Indian Armed Forces in 2004.It involves joint operations between India's three main services Army, Navy, and Air Force and integrated battle groups for offensive operations.
A key component is the preparation of India's forces to be able to quickly mobilize and take offensive actions.Keeping in view the perceived inability of the Indian military to leverage its conventional superiority to end Pakistan's proxy war in Kashmir, the Cold Start doctrine is intended to allow it to mobilize quickly and undertake limited retaliatory attacks on Pakistan, without crossing nuclear threshold.
Setbacks
The operational study of this doctrine suggests the use of Nazi Blitzkrieg technique which involves the use of all-mechanized force concentration of tanks, infantry, artillery and air power, concentrating overwhelming force at high speed to break through enemy lines.
This technique relies heavily on two major assets , if any of two is defeated completely the invasion would fail with heavy loses to Indian side.
1: Armor
2: Air power [Close Air Support]
1:Armor
Nasr Ballistic Missile
Recently Pakistan tested BRBM Nasr on 19th April 2011 as a response to India's cold start doctrine which is considered to be a game changer.
The Nasr Missile has a range of 60 Kms and The diameter of the Nasr suggests that it is designed to carry a tactical nuclear warhead weighing less than 1 kg. This would be a boosted fission device using less than 1 kg of weapons grade plutonium, boosted with up to 4-5 grams of tritium.
The resulting yield would be in the sub-kiloton range and would be suitable for battlefield use. A sophisticated nuclear trigger mechanism would also be required.The Hatf IX Nasr seems to prove that Pakistan is capable of building small nuclear warheads for all types of delivery platforms.
This missile can well be used against invading Indian tanks like the Russian T-90 series or the Indian made Arjun main battle tank. Even though there are risks of radiation involved , this missile can turn the cold start on its toes as according to defence analysts and missile technology experts the system appears to have been developed as a "low-yield battlefield deterrent" targeted at "mechanized forces like armed brigades and divisions."
Indian plans of using IBGs [Integrated Battle Group] won't be able to sustain a large number of Tanks , APCs , Howitzers along with the infantry into an efficient , effective fighting force as the Indian establishment hopes. This gives a tactical advantage to Pakistan Military services as they can mobilize all major assets to deter such an attack in a short period of time. Thinking of IGBs the number of Tanks is expected to be between 400-600 tanks excluding APCs and other forms of light Armour. The use of Nasr Missile could mean the destruction of most of these mechanized units or at least it would ensure the destruction of a large chunk of the Indian armor leaving others vulnerable and demoralized , unable to achieve their basic objectives.
Babur/Raad Cruise Missile
Pakistan air force has a lethal , stealthy air launched cruise missile in its arsenal which could carry a 1100KG nuclear / conventional payload with a range of 350Kms which means all 15 forward Indian Air force bases , and Indian Army Installations are with in its effective range. Upon such invasion the Raad can take out vital command and control centers , communication infrastructure leaving the IBGs disconnected and isolated on the battlefield.
Babur Cruise missile has an effective range of 700kms and can carry a 1500kg Nuclear/chemical/biological/conventional payload , this missile has Indian Capital New dehli in its range for taking out any vital command and control structure ie Indian Ministry of Defense and Military HQ.
Mass use of Cluster Bombs
Pakistan produces its own cluster munitions and they are highly effective against the armor , Most anti-armor munitions contain shaped charge warheads to pierce the armor of tanks and armored fighting vehicles. In some cases, guidance is used to increase the likelihood of successfully hitting a vehicle.
Unguided shaped-charge submunitions are designed to be effective against entrenchments that incorporate overhead cover. To simplify supply and increase battlefield effectiveness by allowing a single type of round to be used against nearly any target, submunitions that incorporate both fragmentation and shaped-charge effects are produced.
Cluster Bombs seen on JF-17 Thunder.
Pakistan air force should not abandon its old fleet of Mirages and F-7s about to be replaced , they rather should be kept in storage , some in fly away condition if the need comes by , these air crafts can be used to attack the Indian IBGs with large quantities of cluster bombs which would annihilate the indian armor in its tracks.
Example.
ATGMs
ATGMs used by Infantry can prove fatal for the invading armor , the example can be taken from the Hizbullah attacks on the Israeli Markeva tanks. As well as the use of ATGMs by Egyptian army against the Israeli armor in Sainai desert.
2: Air Warfare
Another aspect of defeating Indian cold start is in the air , IAF would not deploy majority of its assets for such an operation , but we can expect them to deploy the advanced Su-30MKI , Mig-29SMT and Mirage-2000s. Expected Number could be between 150-300 combat jets , guided by Phalcon AWACS , mainly providing close air support and air defense against PAF.
PAF has an advantage of deploying its assets according to its will , the F-16C/Ds , Air Defense Units , JF-17 Thunders and upcoming J-10B fighter air crafts to provide air support and thwart Indian air assault.
Pakistan is in talks with the Chinese to buy up to 4 advanced High end surface to air missile systems , which are highly mobile and have long range strike capability. Ie the HQ-9 , KS-1A , HQ-18 and one undisclosed system , largely considered to be the anti radiation variant of HQ-9 the FT/D-2000 , used to shoot down AWACS on long ranges and high altitudes.
If PAF and Pakistan air defense units could destroy or damage half of this air strike team of the IAF , it would be considered as a defeat as those air crafts left wont be able to meet the demanding criteria of both CAS and Air defense.
Conclusion
Limited numbers of armored vehicles , IFVs , tanks and fighter air crafts are the window of opportunity for Pakistan military , the success would totally depend on how quickly the assets are deployed in operational conditions and how effectively they are used against these so called IBGs.
Inflicting maximum numbers of casualties possible on the Indian infantry must also be considered , which in effect means the use of cluster bombs in large quantities , along with chemical and biological weapons if needed. Pakistan can defeat India but that all will depend on its preparedness and execution of this operation.
Regards:
Aeronaut
* Feedback would be appreciated.
