A couple of things..
NATO forces knew throughout the 80's.. that eventually Soviet armor.. due to sheer numbers and improving weaponry would break open their lines. There was no way to match it tank for tank, shell for shell. Technology for technology.
However, late 80's.. USAF did a study on the Soviet logistics system and found that the Soviet supply system was made of some key hubs. If these key hubs could be taken out.hubs such as fuel supply stations and forward ammo dumps. The Soviet thrust would grind to a halt. The study was called "checkmate".
A similar approach may be adopted or may already be adopted or planned by the PAF. It is crystal clear that India CANNOT EVER be matched in terms of numbers and perhaps technology as well.
What must be adopted are smarter tactics, and a constant lookout for possible weakness that would negate the numerical and technological advantages.
What must also be understood, that unlike europe which has certain depth for fallback, Pakistan has none.
Any intrusion deeper than a few deca kilometers will threaten key industrial, logistical, population and infrastructure center's.
The effectiveness of an Indian force to penetrate this fault line is increasing exponentially with time.
The PA knows this, SPD knows this..
It is , whether anybody likes it or not.. very clear to the establishment that a determined Indian attack will be through within a few days if not hours.
One must also consider the PA doctrine, since the 80's and Brasstacks.. The PA is now convinced that its immediate goal is to slow down a certain IA advance, grab as much Indian territory as possible ..then hope that the diplomatic circles can get them a ceasefire.
Had the establishment been smarter , it would have slowly shifted logistical and industrial center's west, into the bad lands of Balochistan. Where there was possibility of falling back. However.. by their own folly and with a little encouragement by the perceived threat. Balochistan isnt going to be as welcoming to another encroachment by the PA.. Although efforts are underway to move the communication and logistical lines further back.
As ridiculous as it sounded.. The IA is moving to improve its mobility on the plains of Punjab, and its airborne element... but more on that later. The Idea of Cutting Pakistan in two (breaking it has been done already) via a thrust in the south.. blockading Karachi and perhaps cutting if off entirely.. the three main highway's.. and a rail artery are within a 180km from the Border.
The alternate link runs through balcohistan.. an area that can be made hostile for any resupply routes by the enemy through conventional and unconventional means.
Fuel and weapons may still arrive in Pakistan via alternate ports that may be defended for two weeks or so(if PA manages to hold its ground).
Then comes the captial, relatively open for Aerial attacks.. and if the Shakargarh bulge is taken.. a highway away from being overtaken.
Now that the likely scenario has been laid out.
The weight falls.. yet again.. on the PAF to save the day.
It must survive against insurmountable odds, and deliver precise blows that must cause any Indian IBG to slow down in its tracks.
It does not need to keep air superiority all over Pakistan, Just prevent key logistical lines of the PA from failing. These are fairly well protected in the Punjab.. but in the Thar and Cholistan areas.. and in Sindh.. they are well exposed to air attack.
the IAF will not have an easy time supporting its troops directly as the PA is in possession of many and very effective MANPADS and AAA. Which will extract losses from the IAF no matter what..as the nature of the Battlefield is as such.
However, whilst the reserves from the PA pour in.. the PAF must ensure that it survives long enough to make sure that these troops reach the fight quick.. and that their weapons do so as well.
PakMil can NEVER hope to annihilate, obliterate or do anything "ate" otherwise to the Indian Armour beyond what it is capable of.
What it must ensure is to keep it at bay long enough for diplomacy to prevail.
Problem is, if Pakistan has already lost on the Diplomatic front, then what?
Then sirs.. Weapons like the NASR come in.
However.. that is a new game.
A single NASR will invite a similar response on a greater scale from India.. We will retaliate with a strike on some airfield..
They will retaliate with a strike on GHQ or AHQ.. and we launch it all.. and they launch it all.
And the Indian subcontinent will be a quiet neighborhood for the next 300 years.
