How difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan?

[FuturePAF]

If US cut China off SWIFT, it is as equal asUS asking for suicide. Do read up on how SWIFT system works.

It’s not about swift, it’s about the west and Japan subsidizing companies to move their factories out of China and into other countries as well as back into the states, over the next 5-10 years.

China will be cutoff from new technology and will have to develop everything itself in parallel to try to keep up.

This is why, IMHO, it’s in China’s interest to get BRI done ASAP or it will lose whatever leverage it has gained technological over the past 4 decades to new western ventures.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

But the US dollar is the global reserve currency. China would need to have an equally valuable currency to ensure a war of attrition. Also, unless BRI really takes off, China could be easily cutoff from resources by the allied navies during any hostilities. If they smell blood in the water, China will be face attrition warfare for years until the CCP falls. China can be cutoff from resources as well as markets.

Gold is the only valid global reserve currency. Gold is finite. That makes it valuable.

 

[FuturePAF]

China can produce 95% of its own products. With Russian resources, China can rest assured that it will be consumed permanently with the United States.

What about resources from the Middle East and Africa. Just like Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union, without marinating technological parity with the west and exports to global markets China will stagnate. it may take a generation, but look at Russia now that Finland makes statements challenging it. Will it be Vietnam doing the same to China in 2049?

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

China will be cutoff from new technology and will have to develop everything itself in parallel to try to keep up.

Chinese men are the most intelligent men on the planet. China need not worry about being behind in science and technology. Most of US high tech are developed by Chinese American men anyway.

 

[chinasun]

The allies of the United States also have their own interests, and the future multipolarization of the world is in the interests of most countries. Believe me, it is his allies who will hurt the United States the most.If Japan occupies Australia, his dream will come true. If the euro becomes the world's currency, it is absorbing the richest people in America. Europe can replace the United States.In the face of a weakening empire, each country has its own ideas.

 

[White and Green with M/S]

Tell us again of the LAYERED DEFENSE SYSTEM that Saudi Arabia bought from USA

View attachment 832830

Or do not bother.

I know the perfect place where you belong.
Time is short for me and I have no inclination to teach brain dead USA fanboy.
Or to see his fantasies being expounded from his pulpit

I already told you they have old systems

 

[FuturePAF]

The allies of the United States also have their own interests, and the future multipolarization of the world is in the interests of most countries. Believe me, it is his allies who will hurt the United States the most.If Japan occupies Australia, his dream will come true. If the euro becomes the world's currency, it is absorbing the richest people in America. Europe can replace the United States.

Sounds like China wants to go it alone. If China doesn’t support countries that are currently willing to abstain from condemning Russia now on Ukraine, then BRI will mean nothing, because the entire west and its Asian allies are going to push until there is no CCP anymore and possibly China carved up into smaller countries. It’s not idle speculation, that’s they way the rhetoric is going in the west. Sure it’s just extreme rhetoric, but this is what they did with the Soviets starting in the 70s and by 1991 their was no more Soviet Union and by 2022, Russia is severely crippled.

NATO planning expansion to repel Russia and mitigate rise of China in wake of Ukraine invasion

NATO planning expansion to repel Russia and mitigate rise of China in wake of Ukraine invasion Secretary General says NATO is 'in the midst of a very fundamental transformation' By Max Channon 23:33, 9 APR 2022 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, second from left, with Italy's Prime...

defence.pk

And all the following is before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The west has already accepted the China too may seize all western assets inside China, and perhaps the West will seize Chinese reserves outside China as has been done with Russia.

Imagine the west just cutting off China’s food shipments from around the world. The west can lay siege to China from standoff instances for years, causing the deaths of hundreds of million, while western food supplies are safe and more then abundant.

This is why BRI with links to food/commodities supplies is crucial for China just to survive.

IMHO, China needs to pump money into friendly nations (as aid not loans) to boost their agricultural yields for the sake of China itself. Also, if these countries are built up they can consume the exports of China. Africa’s population is set to double in 30 years, and Pakistan will probably increase by 60% over the same time period. Both areas have underdeveloped agricultural lands, and unless China acts fast, the west will bring these regions back into the fold as we just saw in Pakistan.

China can’t afford to sit on the fence anymore, and it’s not like the foreign reserves in foreign banks is actually going to be repatriated back into China or the US is going to allow the T-bills to be cashed.

 

[Beast]

It’s not about swift, it’s about the west and Japan subsidizing companies to move their factories out of China and into other countries as well as back into the states, over the next 5-10 years.

China will be cutoff from new technology and will have to develop everything itself in parallel to try to keep up.

This is why, IMHO, it’s in China’s interest to get BRI done ASAP or it will lose whatever leverage it has gained technological over the past 4 decades to new western ventures.

That is where you are wrong. You really think China is all about copy and no China own technology? China has invested billions in institution and innovation. The effect are starting to taking effect.

Commercial business is all about making money. China is a big market for people including foreigner to share the pie. China has plenty of state subsidize enterprise to fight the war of attrition. Do read up how China wipe out German and foreign solar companies. Why would foreign companies out of a big market and the most complete supply chain in the world? How much bleeding do you think Japan and US can subsidize to fight China cost effective method?

Why Tesla double investment in China instead of moving out as what you suggest?

 

[MH.Yang]

But the US dollar is the global reserve currency. China would need to have an equally valuable currency to ensure a war of attrition. Also, unless BRI really takes off, China could be easily cutoff from resources by the allied navies during any hostilities. If they smell blood in the water, China will be face attrition warfare for years until the CCP falls. China can be cutoff from resources as well as markets.

We can maintain the current speed and continue to expand the Navy until our naval strength is greater than that of NATO combined. USA has no ability to engage in an arms race with us.

 

[chinasun]

Sounds like China wants to go it alone. If China doesn’t support countries that are currently willing to abstain from condemning Russia now on Ukraine, then BRI will mean nothing, because the entire west and its Asian allies are going to push until there is no CCP anymore and possibly China carved up into smaller countries. It’s not idle speculation, that’s they way the rhetoric is going in the west. Sure it’s just extreme rhetoric, but this is what they did with the Soviets starting in the 70s and by 1991 their was no more Soviet Union and by 2022, Russia is severely crippled.

NATO planning expansion to repel Russia and mitigate rise of China in wake of Ukraine invasion

NATO planning expansion to repel Russia and mitigate rise of China in wake of Ukraine invasion Secretary General says NATO is 'in the midst of a very fundamental transformation' By Max Channon 23:33, 9 APR 2022 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, second from left, with Italy's Prime...

defence.pk

And all the following is before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The west has already accepted the China too may seize all western assets inside China, and perhaps the West will seize Chinese reserves outside China as has been done with Russia.

In fact, the Chinese foreign minister visited Europe and actively communicated with all parties in order to achieve peace in Ukraine at an early date.

 

[MH.Yang]

But the US dollar is the global reserve currency. China would need to have an equally valuable currency to ensure a war of attrition. Also, unless BRI really takes off, China could be easily cutoff from resources by the allied navies during any hostilities. If they smell blood in the water, China will be face attrition warfare for years until the CCP falls. China can be cutoff from resources as well as markets.

We can do this:
1. Increase the number of N-weapons to 3000 to deter some crazy people from taking military risks.
2. Doubling the PLAN.
The PLAN will be to 8 heavy aircraft carriers + 8*075 + 8*076,
24*055 (055a),
72*052c / D / E,
80*054A / B and 100*056

China's shipbuilding capacity is 30 times that of the USA(per year 12 million tons:0.4 million tons)

The cost of shipbuilding in China is less than half that in the USA
055's cost is $0.9 billion.
Burke's cost $2.58 billion.

How does the USA respond to this situation?
Relinquish control of the sea？Or double the military spending? 10% GDP,like the Soviet Union?

But what will China do about sanctions? If they even some of the same kind of sanctions are imposed on China as those that have been imposed on Russia it will be devastating for everyone but most of all China.

According to China's anti sanctions law. If Western countries sanction China's overseas assets, China will confiscate all western investment & factories & Patents in China. China has more than 70% of the world's factories. Once China turns the factories of apple, Tesla and other companies into state-owned enterprises, it means that the West will cut off almost all goods supply. Western currencies will not buy anything. The modern industrial system is complex and huge, and China is the only country in the world with a complete industrial chain. It will take more than 100 years for western countries to rebuild their industrial chain. Those small countries will not abandon China that can provide goods. They will abandon western countries that can provide nothing.

The New PRC Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law

On June 10, 2021, the 29th session of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress ("NPC") adopted China’s new Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law,1which took immediate effect. The new law provides legal grounds for the Chinese government...

www.akingump.com

It’s not about swift, it’s about the west and Japan subsidizing companies to move their factories out of China and into other countries as well as back into the states, over the next 5-10 years.

China will be cutoff from new technology and will have to develop everything itself in parallel to try to keep up.

This is why, IMHO, it’s in China’s interest to get BRI done ASAP or it will lose whatever leverage it has gained technological over the past 4 decades to new western ventures.

Only low-end labor-intensive enterprises will migrate to Southeast Asia and continue to rely on China's industrial system. No matter how subsidized western countries are, it is impossible for companies to move to western countries. Because they cannot leave China's industrial chain, leaving China is tantamount to suicide.
Look at 104#

 

[DF41]

Chinese men are the most intelligent men on the planet. China need not worry about being behind in science and technology. Most of US high tech are developed by Chinese American men anyway.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512813998059581441

Z-Library single sign on

Z-Library single sign on | Z-Library. Download books for free. Find books

sg1lib.org

 

[FuturePAF]

That is where you are wrong. You really think China is all about copy and no China own technology? China has invested billions in institution and innovation. The effect are starting to taking effect.

Commercial business is all about making money. China is a big market for people including foreigner to share the pie. China has plenty of state subsidize enterprise to fight the war of attrition. Do read up how China wipe out German and foreign solar companies. Why would foreign companies out of a big market and the most complete supply chain in the world? How much bleeding do you think Japan and US can subsidize to fight China cost effective method?

Why Tesla double investment in China instead of moving out as what you suggest?

China needs to be able to sell to foreign markets to recoup its investments. Chinese labor costs are grown substantially, and the west is working on ways to lower their cost to build products till many (not all) western products are cheaper to make then Chinese products. In that context, westerners would buy locally rather then from Asia. Especially at similar costs and if they know it will bring back local jobs. I have lived in rural America for years, and men would vote for that in a heartbeat to gain back a sense of purpose when they are in manufacturing.

Look at Russia, cut off from selling a lot of things to markets, even at below market rates. The US is working on getting Europe off Russia oil/gas and possibly on to US LNG over the next 6-12 months.

We can maintain the current speed and continue to expand the Navy until our naval strength is greater than that of NATO combined. USA has no ability to engage in an arms race with us.

The US has gotten Germany to increase their defense spending. Once the republicans are back in control of Congress this year, they will slash social spending to ramp up military spending like the Reagan buildup of the 1980s. The west has more then enough money and resources to ramp up defense production.

In fact, the Chinese foreign minister visited Europe and actively communicated with all parties in order to achieve peace in Ukraine at an early date.

Doesn’t look like the Russians are done with their war any time soon.

We can do this:
1. Increase the number of N-weapons to 3000 to deter some crazy people from taking military risks.
2. Doubling the PLAN.
The PLAN will be to 8 heavy aircraft carriers + 8*075 + 8*076,
24*055 (055a),
72*052c / D / E,
80*054A / B and 100*056

China's shipbuilding capacity is 30 times that of the USA(per year 12 million tons:0.4 million tons)

The cost of shipbuilding in China is less than half that in the USA
055's cost is $0.9 billion.
Burke's cost $2.58 billion.

How does the USA respond to this situation?
Relinquish control of the sea？Or double the military spending? 10% GDP,like the Soviet Union?





According to China's anti sanctions law. If Western countries sanction China's overseas assets, China will confiscate all western investment & factories & Patents in China. China has more than 70% of the world's factories. Once China turns the factories of apple, Tesla and other companies into state-owned enterprises, it means that the West will cut off almost all goods supply. Western currencies will not buy anything. The modern industrial system is complex and huge, and China is the only country in the world with a complete industrial chain. It will take more than 100 years for western countries to rebuild their industrial chain. Those small countries will not abandon China that can provide goods. They will abandon western countries that can provide nothing.

The New PRC Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law

On June 10, 2021, the 29th session of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress ("NPC") adopted China’s new Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law,1which took immediate effect. The new law provides legal grounds for the Chinese government...

www.akingump.com

Only low-end labor-intensive enterprises will migrate to Southeast Asia and continue to rely on China's industrial system. No matter how subsidized western countries are, it is impossible for companies to move to western countries. Because they cannot leave China's industrial chain, leaving China is tantamount to suicide.
Look at 104#

Is China prepared to use those weapons against allied forces? The US is building up all its allies to be used in combination against China. What business does NATO have in East Asia, but they are being built up to counter China as evidenced by their naval patrols off the Chinese coast. The cost spread out over all these countries will be maybe 200 Billion extra a year, which is almost the same as the entire Chinese military budget itself.

China can only seize assets once. After that forget about new investments, and selling products to western nations, just like what is happening with Russia. It will take the west 2-3 years to rebuild all the lost factories in China. It will be painful and expensive but the west can get it done. The west will probably seize the $2-3 Trillion of Chinese T-Bill to pay for it too. Or the west will just print money and put the cost on society. Sure costs will go up, but it will be done in the name of national security so no one will question it.



This is why BRI has to get done by the end of this decade if China is to be secure sources of raw materials and reliable markets. $50-100 billion a year for the next 5-7 years invested (NOT LOANED) in Africa and the region between China and there is a small price to pay to gain this kind of resilience. Also, the investment can’t be called a loan or else it will lose the PR wars in these countries as well.

 

[Beast]

China needs to be able to sell to foreign markets to recoup its investments. Chinese labor costs are grown substantially, and the west is working on ways to lower their cost to build products till many (not all) western products are cheaper to make then Chinese products. In that context, westerners would buy locally rather then from Asia. Especially at similar costs and if they know it will bring back local jobs. I have lived in rural America for years, and men would vote for that in a heartbeat to gain back a sense of purpose when they are in manufacturing.

Look at Russia, cut off from selling a lot of things to markets, even at below market rates. The US is working on getting Europe off Russia oil/gas and possibly on to US LNG over the next 6-12 months.


The US has gotten Germany to increase their defense spending. Once the republicans are back in control of Congress this year, they will slash social spending to ramp up military spending like the Reagan buildup of the 1980s. The west has more then enough money and resources to ramp up defense production.


Doesn’t look like the Russians are done with their war any time soon.


Is China prepared to use those weapons against allied forces? The US is building up all its allies to be used in combination against China. What business does NATO have in East Asia, but they are being built up to counter China as evidenced by their naval patrols off the Chinese coast. The cost spread out over all these countries will be maybe 200 Billion extra a year, which is almost the same as the entire Chinese military budget itself.

China can only seize assets once. After that forget about new investments, and selling products to western nations, just like what is happening with Russia. It will take the west 2-3 years to rebuild all the lost factories in China. It will be painful and expensive but the west can get it done. The west will probably seize the $2-3 Trillion of Chinese T-Bill to pay for it too. Or the west will just print money and put the cost on society. Sure costs will go up, but it will be done in the name of national security so no one will question it.



This is why BRI has to get done by the end of this decade if China is to be secure sources of raw materials and reliable markets. $50-100 billion a year for the next 5-7 years invested (NOT LOANED) in Africa and the region between China and there is a small price to pay to gain this kind of resilience. Also, the investment can’t be called a loan or else it will lose the PR wars in these countries as well.

And you think Western has a choice not to buy Chinese products? Even US slap tariffs on Chinese products didnt stamp made in China from continue flood the US market. US has no choice, trust me. Made in China products is the new opium hooking up western countries.

And you really think Labour cost as the main factor in the Made in China products? LOL..
I am sure China has no love by westerners but ask yourself, why they still buy Made in China at record pace and volume?

 

[FuturePAF]

And you think Western has a choice not to buy Chinese products? Even US slap tariffs on Chinese products didnt stamp made in China from continue flood the US market. US has no choice, trust me. Made in China products is the new opium hooking up western countries.

And you really think Labour cost as the main factor in the Made in China products? LOL..
I am sure China has no love by westerners but ask yourself, why they still buy Made in China at record pace and volume?

The west absolutely has a choice, and they are acting on it RIGHT NOW. I’ll give you the example of Russia, Europe is buying Russian oil and gas to fill up their reserves for next winter during which time they hope to have oil and gas facilities build to receive and store American oil and gas.

If Russia is not brought in line by the fall, they will cutoff Russia. What will Russia do. Even with the means to threaten Russia with a cutoff, the Russians will have to make concessions after concessions.

The American business community doesn’t want to do it, which is why incentives will be put in bills to onshore factories back to the US. Labor is not the majority of the cost differential, it more like the sunk costs into the infrastructure China built in processing and manufacturing that has keep China competitive. The US will spend a $1 Trillion in infrastructure over the next 5-7 years and will probably incentivize private business to put in a further $2-3 Trillion over that same time.

You may not see the difference for the next few years, but the $20 billion Intel chip plant in Columbus, Ohio will go online and eat away at Chinese exports for decades to come. Lithium will start to be processed in the US. Mines will be re-opened, all in the name of National security.