How can Pakistan counter India’s ABM system?

[deckingraj]

It appears that you didn't get me...(hell,most Indians don't)

With all due respect you post sounds as if there is hardly a difference b/w a suicide bomber and Pakistan state which is very very wrong....Let me explain why...

I'm saying,the threat of a first-strike from Pakistan will prevent India from starting a declared war,hence stopping the thereafter retaliation in the first place...

You are absolutely correct here...2003-2004 showdown after the parliament attack is a clear indicator that Pakistan has managed to deter India using this first strike option...However it ends there...It is after this debacle ABM system got its full backing from GOI...There is a reason that a country where almost everything is delayed, this system has been on track....Talks about so called cold start(pratical, possible or not is a separate debate) also starting circling around the defense establishment...Lot of procurement has been done post 2003-2004 around this arena...In short what our establishment is trying to do is defeat this deterrance and sneak in a low yield conflict to punish Pak if provoked by a terror attack...

Look i am not trying to say that Pak is doomed or India has achieved what it wants, all i am saying is that we are trying to reach there...Pak is doing the opposite which is deny us....


Think from this perspective...

- Indian ABM will at a minimum force Pakistan to invest heavily in developing/getting technologies to overcome the system...
- Indian ABM will at least knock off certain number of missiles and prevent damage to some/larger extent on our side...
- This can prove to be a deterant for Pakistan first strike option...Because now not only Pak risk a massive retaliation but also risk a condition where she is not able to cripple India the way she would have liked before going out for good...

You have to understand...we have very less to lose as compared to India in an event of war.

I am sorry but this line of thinking is very flawed...You will loose everything you have, so it doesn't matter how much the opposition loose...I am back to stone age and so are you...So how does it matter that i lost only 300-400 billion economy vs 1.6 trillion dollar???

BTW,the Military Strategists and we fully understand the term "massive retaliation"...so no need to describe it.

You are right here...However our emphasis is only on nuclear war. Let me try to bring your attention to another headache that ABM will bring in for Pak...

Scenario

There is a mumbai like attack on India which is planned, supported and carried by Pak nationals...Indian ABM system is in place...Indian establishment decides enough is enough and give a green signal to defense forces for a retaliation....A couple of low yield cruise missile got fired in P-O-K to take out some terrorist camps...Obviously this will not get well with Pak establishment...They will have to retaliate in some way...Now the question is go for an all out full-flede war or keep the sector small but give a punitive reply to India...With ABM in place what you think your options would be????

 

[Rafi]

Pakistan is developing MIRV - this decreases the chance of any ABM working, and any such defense can be overwhelmed by sheer number of re-entry vehicles. Not a problem in my opinion, any working shield is decades away from being deployed.

 

[deckingraj]

Pakistan is developing MIRV - this decreases the chance of any ABM working, and any such defense can be overwhelmed by sheer number of re-entry vehicles. Not a problem in my opinion, any working shield is decades away from being deployed.

Are you sure about it???

 

[Rafi]

Are you sure about it???

We have good information on the programme - it will not be "deployed" for the foreseeable future. Regarding indian attack - we can take punitive actions against indian targets in case of an attack, we can use fighters equipped with PGM's or long range cruise missiles.

 

[DARKY]

That applies to Quasi BMs in general....like Shaurya,Iskander etc...

If Nasr's apogee is 60km while its H range is also 60 km,then it is more dumb than a normal BM.Just saying,Shaheen-II has a horizontal range of 2500km while its apogee is 400 km...

And 10-15 km is for cruise missiles like BrahMos...Tomahawk and Babur have altitude 100m or less...

It does not mean that If my BM has 10km range It would fly at 2 km altitude.... If Nasr flies at 20km then It is a hypersonic cruise missile..... which I don't think it is.
All cruise missiles cruise at 10-15 km altitude.... even Babur/Tom Hawk/kH-55/Cj-10 etc.... 00m is the terminal altitude.... missile like Kh-55 can go as low as 3m in last part and Brahmos can dive as low as 10m....

More speed and more accuracy...because Ghauri-IIs ReV is made by NDC,NESCOM...which also makes accurate ReVs for Shaheen series...No other advancement.

More speed is obvious due to additional stage.... since more liquid to burn.... about the accuracy part Its still has a CEP in excess of 200-300m... whats accurate about that.

Are you telling me that an interceptor which intercepts missiles of range 350km can do so with missiles of 2500km range?...I won't consider AAD/PAD trustworthy,unless they are successfully tested against Agni series missiles (I or II).

Its boyish when you make comments like this.... the 350km missile was modified to reach an altitude of a 2500km missile and mimic its trajectory.... use of higher efficiency propellants and better coating materials helped it with speed part..... No AAM is able to shoot a real fighter aircraft does not mean that it won't shoot a real aircraft when fired upon one.

 

[The Deterrent]

With all due respect you post sounds as if there is hardly a difference b/w a suicide bomber and Pakistan state which is very very wrong....Let me explain why...

...The nuclear war scenario is a suicide,no matter what country is participating.During the cold war,anyone (USA/USSR) who had started the war would be killing the other and committing suicide at the same time.That is why,nuclear war is called Mutually Assured Destruction.
But at the same time,it is the nuclear threat that stops the situations to escalate further and prevents wars.

Look i am not trying to say that Pak is doomed or India has achieved what it wants, all i am saying is that we are trying to reach there...Pak is doing the opposite which is deny us....


Think from this perspective...

- Indian ABM will at a minimum force Pakistan to invest heavily in developing/getting technologies to overcome the system...
- Indian ABM will at least knock off certain number of missiles and prevent damage to some/larger extent on our side...
- This can prove to be a deterant for Pakistan first strike option...Because now not only Pak risk a massive retaliation but also risk a condition where she is not able to cripple India the way she would have liked before going out for good...

I agree with you...

I am sorry but this line of thinking is very flawed...You will loose everything you have, so it doesn't matter how much the opposition loose...I am back to stone age and so are you...So how does it matter that i lost only 300-400 billion economy vs 1.6 trillion dollar???

What I meant was,that India has a promised and bright future ahead.Its only a matter of years before India develops into a major power,leaving behind UK and France...both financialy and militarily.
On the other hand,Pakistan has quite a difficult path lying ahead.Probably another decade of combating Terrorism and rooting out extremism and militancy.

So,I suppose the Indian leaders would think of solving the issue diplomatically.Anyway,its my thinking.

You are right here...However our emphasis is only on nuclear war. Let me try to bring your attention to another headache that ABM will bring in for Pak...

Scenario

There is a mumbai like attack on India which is planned, supported and carried by Pak nationals...Indian ABM system is in place...Indian establishment decides enough is enough and give a green signal to defense forces for a retaliation....A couple of low yield cruise missile got fired in P-O-K to take out some terrorist camps...Obviously this will not get well with Pak establishment...They will have to retaliate in some way...Now the question is go for an all out full-flede war or keep the sector small but give a punitive reply to India...With ABM in place what you think your options would be????

Are you talking about low-yield nuclear cruise missiles?

I hope not...well,if they are conventional ones,then Pakistan's reply won't be a full-fledged war...The most we could do is attack the bases/launch areas from where these attacks originated by missiles of our own(Babur for example)...that too seems less likely,because the international community will jump in immediately,if the response is not delivered quickly (within minutes after the attack).

 

[DARKY]

American ABM is not even close to intercepting even 20% Russian missiles...

These are political tactics...of course they won't make a difference,but Putin wants to stop these developments in the first place,before they evolve into a considerable threat in future...

Who says that you ??
Only the most modern series of Russian missiles such as Bulava can penetrate ABM shield of US.... If I were to go by your words the Russian would not have been testing newer BMs and SLBMs.

 

[deckingraj]

We have good information on the programme - it will not be "deployed" for the foreseeable future.

So you are saying that India's claim of deploying the first phase by 2014-2015 is a farce??? would you mind sharing some source or it is some inner circle talks that cannot be shared???

Regarding indian attack - we can take punitive actions against indian targets in case of an attack, we can use fighters equipped with PGM's or long range cruise missiles.

see there is a big problem in using Fighter jets...You risk loosing them...Think from this perpective - You send in your fighter jets and loose them in the process of teaching India a lesson...what are you going to do then???? I believe unless and until a full-flede war has been decided there is no role of fighter jets...


Also what kind of long range cruise missiles are you talking about???

 

[The Deterrent]

Who says that you ??
Only the most modern series of Russian missiles such as Bulava can penetrate ABM shield of US.... If I were to go by your words the Russian would not have been testing newer BMs and SLBMs.

Modernization is the demand of every military...If the US DoD admits that they cannot intercept Russian/Chinese missiles and American BMD can tackle only a "limited" ICBM attack so they are cancelling the Multiple Kill Vehicle, Kinetic Energy Interceptor and Airborne Laser Programs...who am I to say that US cannot intercept Russian ICBMs.

Provided that you don't ditch these reports.

 

[Rafi]

So you are saying that India's claim of deploying the first phase by 2014-2015 is a farce??? would you mind sharing some source or it is some inner circle talks that cannot be shared???



see there is a big problem in using Fighter jets...You risk loosing them...Think from this perpective - You send in your fighter jets and loose them in the process of teaching India a lesson...what are you going to do then???? I believe unless and until a full-flede war has been decided there is no role of fighter jets...


Also what kind of long range cruise missiles are you talking about???

I have sources that cannot be disclosed on an open forum, we have Babur - with a 700 kilometer range - that brings Delhi into range, and with Raad a fighter can take it in - it has a 350 kilometer range, both missiles will have their ranges increased, so we have many options, including fighters with stand of, PGM's.

 

[Mech]

I have sources that cannot be disclosed on an open forum, we have Babur - with a 700 kilometer range - that brings Delhi into range, and with Raad a fighter can take it in - it has a 350 kilometer range, both missiles will have their ranges increased, so we have many options, including fighters with stand of, PGM's.

 

[deckingraj]

I have been on this forum from quite sometime..I just want to tell you that such a balanced reply is very well appreciated..

...The nuclear war scenario is a suicide,no matter what country is participating.During the cold war,anyone (USA/USSR) who had started the war would be killing the other and committing suicide at the same time.That is why,nuclear war is called Mutually Assured Destruction.
But at the same time,it is the nuclear threat that stops the situations to escalate further and prevents wars.

We both are on same page here...It's just that people use here term "nuke war" like kids fight...

I agree with you...

What I meant was,that India has a promised and bright future ahead.Its only a matter of years before India develops into a major power,leaving behind UK and France...both financialy and militarily.
On the other hand,Pakistan has quite a difficult path lying ahead.Probably another decade of combating Terrorism and rooting out extremism and militancy.

So,I suppose the Indian leaders would think of solving the issue diplomatically.Anyway,its my thinking.

No you are right...i gave you an example as well...In 2003 we got deterred because of the same reason...Any rational mind would see India got defeated by Pak then...That was taken very very seriously by Indian politicians...That's why you see so much emphasis on BMD's...Anyways my only point is that Pak has lot of potential to grow...This can be seen from her GDP growth when there was some sense of normaly there during Mush era...So i understand that going is tough but let's not ignore Pakistan enormous potential to grow...

Are you talking about low-yield nuclear cruise missiles?

Nopes

I hope not...well,if they are conventional ones,then Pakistan's reply won't be a full-fledged war...The most we could do is attack the bases/launch areas from where these attacks originated by missiles of our own(Babur for example)...that too seems less likely,because the international community will jump in immediately,if the response is not delivered quickly (within minutes after the attack).

Exactly...This is where BMD's will bring in head ache's...You will have more challenges..Replying to India would be a must and International community with India's BMD would be two challenges that Pak will have to overcome...

 

[DARKY]

Modernization is the demand of every military...If the US DoD admits that they cannot intercept Russian/Chinese missiles and American BMD can tackle only a "limited" ICBM attack so they are cancelling the Multiple Kill Vehicle, Kinetic Energy Interceptor and Airborne Laser Programs...who am I to say that US cannot intercept Russian ICBMs.

Provided that you don't ditch these reports.

The US DoD is scard of an Iranian aswell as NK attack.... no It is not me who is saying that.... they were also scared of saddam Hussain and Gaddafie......

The big thing which makes it hard to Intercept Russian missiles is their sheer number.... aswell as widely deployed MIRV technology.....

 

[The Deterrent]

It does not mean that If my BM has 10km range It would fly at 2 km altitude.... If Nasr flies at 20km then It is a hypersonic cruise missile..... which I don't think it is.
All cruise missiles cruise at 10-15 km altitude.... even Babur/Tom Hawk/kH-55/Cj-10 etc.... 00m is the terminal altitude.... missile like Kh-55 can go as low as 3m in last part and Brahmos can dive as low as 10m....

I am talking about the apogee...i.e. The highest altitude reached in the flight.Make it 30km,it is my speculation only.
IMO,the max speed of Nasr will be Mach 4.Thats not hypersonic.

I should have specified about the cruise missiles...I was talking about the terminal stage.

More speed is obvious due to additional stage.... since more liquid to burn.... about the accuracy part Its still has a CEP in excess of 200-300m... whats accurate about that.

NDC's ReVs employ Terminal Correction System via Satellite link.This helps to decrease CEP below 100m,which is better for conventionally armed missiles.Anyway,even 300m CEP works for Nuclear missiles.

Its boyish when you make comments like this.... the 350km missile was modified to reach an altitude of a 2500km missile and mimic its trajectory.... use of higher efficiency propellants and better coating materials helped it with speed part..... No AAM is able to shoot a real fighter aircraft does not mean that it won't shoot a real aircraft when fired upon one.

No doubt your point is valid.But certain elements are there which cannot be achieved just like that.
Speed of Shaheen-II Warhead is around 3-4 km/s in the terminal phase (after re-entering).If that speed was achieved by Dhanush,than so far,so good.
The problem lies with the MaRV.Shaheen-IIs ReV is higly manueverable.It employs thrusters (apart from the Hydrazine based Rocket Motor for TCS in the ReV) which enable it to change its flight path sharply and continuously.
A bigger problem lies with the Counter-measures.Decoys (Inflatable Balloons and Chaff) have been made part of the upgraded version of Shaheen-II.

---------- Post added at 08:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:19 PM ----------

I have sources that cannot be disclosed on an open forum, we have Babur - with a 700 kilometer range - that brings Delhi into range, and with Raad a fighter can take it in - it has a 350 kilometer range, both missiles will have their ranges increased, so we have many options, including fighters with stand of, PGM's.

With due respect sir,this is not some sort of top-secret news...everbody knows it and Pakistan officially proclaims that.

BTW,Ra'ad ALCM is yet to enter production.After that,it will be inducted.

 

[The Deterrent]

Exactly...This is where BMD's will bring in head ache's...You will have more challenges..Replying to India would be a must and International community with India's BMD would be two challenges that Pak will have to overcome...

Yes,because the reply (retaliation) from Pakistani side will be limited,so a fully deployed multiple layered BMD shield can protect India from a small number of missiles.