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How 5 Countries could become 14

Are you sure the current crisis is only due to western instigations? As I said above, the people in some of these regions will not be able to live together, even if the west completely abandoned the region and ignored it. I don't think there will be as much fragmentation as speculated here, but some of it is inevitable. And maybe it is a good thing too - maybe if like minded people of Iraq can form a country, they might be able to live peacefully with no more civil wars. Same for some other regions as well.

Conflict is in human nature. Even the most advanced countries of the world will descend into bloodshed on the streets between rival groups if the (economic) conditions are right, leading to breakdown of law and order. The groupings may be based around ethnicity, socioeconomics, or some other characteristic.

I am not saying that the current situation is the fault of the West, but there is an art to dividing up people, and there are any number of parties who benefit from dividing up various parts of the world. Most countries try to marginalize separatist groups and focus on commonalities within the society.

One of the steps in the divide-and-rule process is to legitimize the separatist tendencies of various groups and to bring the topic into mainstream discourse. This lays the groundwork for more propaganda focusing on differences between the groups rather than finding common ground and reconciliation.

What was taboo yesterday becomes debatable today, what's debated today becomes a viable option tomorrow. It's a progression.
 
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Are you sure the current crisis is only due to western instigations? As I said above, the people in some of these regions will not be able to live together, even if the west completely abandoned the region and ignored it. I don't think there will be as much fragmentation as speculated here, but some of it is inevitable. And maybe it is a good thing too - maybe if like minded people of Iraq can form a country, they might be able to live peacefully with no more civil wars. Same for some other regions as well.

Sad but very true. The differences between Shia and Sinni is exploited by some countries and mad mullahs and shiekhs. USA intervenes or not, the hatred between different communities is historical and will not be easily forgotten.
 
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Have been looking into these maps for years, nothing will ever come out of it in this modern age.
 
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Have been looking into these maps for years, nothing will ever come out of it in this modern age.
If modern armies can simply abandon their posts and hand over their cities on a platter to ragtag insurgents, it is quite possible.

The reason we think that in the modern age divisions and fragmentations don't happen is because in Europe and the Americas and South and East Asia, we have professional armies that can keep the country together even if there is a threat of civil war. But if factions in the army owe allegiance to communities and not to the nation, then fragmentation is possible in this day and age too.
 
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Spliting KSA today will be hell of Job, their airforce today can even take on israel. Also, the sentiments of south asian muslims for KSA will never allow this to happen.

Also, Iraq is already messed up preety badly, i doubt west will come back after them.. any way they already have iraqi and kuwaiti oil, they wont be doing anything there anytime soon.

Ok syria could trigger a split, but that also into two countries only.
 
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These Middle-Easterners are even more messed up than us , don't you think ? :haha:
thing is thwese so called mid eastern nations have owt lived there utility for there western masters and were now trying to break the shakkells as they love to call it + for long they had created trouble in one or the other form for the world and there immideate naighbour hood and last but not the least you cant keep the fruits of the power concentrated to a little elite while the masses live a tough and hard life all the time some or the other time the explossion is bound to happen
 
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Most of it won't, but some of it might. I don't see how Iraq can stay united for any considerable length of time - the divisions runs too deep. In Iraq, as well as some other countries in that region, sectarian or tribal loyalties and identities are much stronger than ones based on nationalism. And that is not surprising, since most of these nation states were drawn up by colonial powers recently, and since then, no effort was made to forge a national identity. If four well trained and well equipped divisions of armymen can simply abandon their cities, imagine what kind of loyalty an average person would have to the idea of the nation state. I'm guessing, none.
Yeah, that doesn't make much sense. Temporary sectarianism doesn't mean separatism, so it's an unfair assessment to make. Yes, the state lines were drawn up by colonialists, but the fact that a vast majority of regional governments accept them, it's perfectly fine. Besides, ISIS doesn't care about any borders at all, they want the middle east to be united as a single nation under their barbaric leadership.

The current situation was predicted when the US withdrew, because the army was NOT well trained, NOT well disciplined and NOT well equipped. Certainly, they were better off than Afghanistan, but Iraq is a richer nation, which means bigger military purchases; Having said that, it doesn't mean that having a more advanced army means that it's better trained.

I consider this a temporary civil war, nothing more, and I highly doubt that Iraq will disintegrate. Hell, ISIS doesn't want it to disintegrate in the first place, because it claims the entirety of the territory of Iraq for itself.
 
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Pakistani media gurus are actually good at these retarded analysis. So this guy is saying that SA, one of the wealthiest countries in the world will break up!!!............Disintegrations are almost always economic in nature. When poverty becomes too much the constituents want to take back their resources from the centre and manage those themselves. It is much more likely that Pakistan will break up in the near future because its provinces can do much better without the corrupt central government.

Libya was ne of the wealthiest countries in north Africa similarly the case was with Iraq which was an oil rich country, the extremist ideology is now doing the damage, th extremists ideology and lack of coherant/powerful government/leader is now dividing people on tribal, sectarian and regional differences

i would have disagreed with this few years ago but the situation in libya and then syria and now iraq is proving this to be the very case, saudi arab which is getting used by creating destruction in other middle eastern countries will soon see the after effects reaching its own country, similar thing happened in pakistan when the after effect reached pak n the form of TTP

if TTP is not completely squashed, similar thing will happen in Pakistan as well and pakistan will see the same situation syria, libya and iraq are seeing

pakistan is already divided on racial bases since punjab government is ruling the country, if TTp too takes over, it will prove to be the last nail on the coffin of Pakistan as a country
 
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All ME should be united.

unitedmuslimstates.jpg
 
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Libya was ne of the wealthiest countries in north Africa similarly the case was with Iraq which was an oil rich country, the extremist ideology is now doing the damage, th extremists ideology and lack of coherant/powerful government/leader is now dividing people on tribal, sectarian and regional differences

i would have disagreed with this few years ago but the situation in libya and then syria and now iraq is proving this to be the very case, saudi arab which is getting used by creating destruction in other middle eastern countries will soon see the after effects reaching its own country, similar thing happened in pakistan when the after effect reached pak n the form of TTP

if TTP is not completely squashed, similar thing will happen in Pakistan as well and pakistan will see the same situation syria, libya and iraq are seeing

pakistan is already divided on racial bases since punjab government is ruling the country, if TTp too takes over, it will prove to be the last nail on the coffin of Pakistan as a country

I don't think anyone in their sane minds will think that Pakistan can disintegrate. I have many reasons behind this statement but primary reason is military (nuclear power; so outside direct intervention is almost impossible now). And I don't recall any country splitting up in recent history without outside intervention.

@Topic, Saudi's are all comfy and cozy now with their oil. But oil will run out sooner or later, and Saudi people are not equipped to deal with post-oil economics (not yet anyways). Once the money and shiny toys are gone, it will not be easy to control the masses.
 
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All ME should be united.


Impossible....all people have their own interests and national aspirations that need to be respected. You cannot ignore all that and pretend a "unity" can be had which can only be imposed through Tyranny, hence running contrary to the Quran's teachings. If enough people hold your view, then the misjudged notion of "Dar al-Harb" (land of war) will remain the abode of "Muslims" for centuries to come. The Caliphate was destroyed as it became too big to manage, too corrupt to respect, too illiberal to be creative and too unproductive to compete. Given this, it was not difficult for colonial powers such as the French and British to inspire rebellions or non-compliance among Muslims against their rulers across the Muslim world.


As a case in point, one of the last thrusts towards a united Caliphate that sought to stretch from Afghanistan to Turkey came from a Turko-Iranian leader in Nadir Quli Beg of Afshar. Backed by a large military contingent of Afghans, with Ahmed Shah Abdali as his appointed treasurer, they essentially sought to create their own greater empire together. However, to appease the predominantly Suni Muslim Afghans, Nadir converted away from his Shia faith. The predominantly Shia Iranians however didn't take too kindly to it and had him assassinated, hence the end of his reign and the beginning of the breakaway Durrani empire which also gradually crumbled over more than two centuries for the same reasons.



The future of Islam belongs to a free people and free nations that inspire others the world over, rather than repel them from the very sight of us. How can we blame them when they see how brutal we are towards one another and our own people, irrespective of the polemics we direct at them? We are our own worst enemies. Just before his brutal death, Muamar Gaddafi once lamented at the OIC about how all Muslim states pretend to be one, when in truth they all view one another with extreme suspicion and prejudice.
 
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Not a bad plan, but the implementation and actual borders should be up to muslims (this time), not westerners. In my opinion.
 
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Have been looking into these maps for years, nothing will ever come out of it in this modern age.

It's happening right now. And frankly, i wouldn't try to marginalize these events in the way you have. I'd be more worried at the direction of the trend. Namely, Syria>Iraq>?
 
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Intentions of founders of Israel - 1948

'We will break Transjordan' exclaimed Ben Gurion to his parliament in the early days of state of Israel; 'bomb Amman and destroy it's army; then Syria falls; and if Egypt continues to fight, we will bombard Port Said, Alexandria and Cairo. This will be in revenge for what they (Ancient Egyptians, Arabs and Assyrians) did to our fore-fathers during Biblical times'. That essentially means that from the time of it's birth, founders of Israel were committed to a militarily hegemonic Israel and toothless Arab states around them.

Yinon Plan - 1982

Israeli strategist Oded Yinon’s now infamous “A strategy for Israel in the 1980′s” – dubbed the Yinon Plan – provides perhaps the clearest account of Israel’s intentions toward its Arab neighbours:

The total disintegration of Lebanon into five regional local governments is the precedent for the entire Arab world … The dissolution of Syria, and later Iraq, into districts of ethnic and religious minorities following the example of Lebanon is Israel’s main long-range objective on the Eastern front. The present military weakening of these states is the short-range objective. Syria will disintegrate into several states along the lines of its ethnic and religious structure … As a result, there will be a Shi’ite Alawi state, the district of Aleppo will be a Sunni state, and the district of Damascus another state which is hostile to the northern one. The Druze – even those of the Golan – should form a state in Hauran and in northern Jordan … the oil-rich but very divided and internally strife-ridden Iraq is certainly a candidate to fill Israel’s goals … Every kind of inter-Arab confrontation … will hasten the achievement of the supreme goal, namely breaking up Iraq into elements like Syria and Lebanon.

Although, this was conceived in 1982, the current situation seems exactly like the plan has worked out very well.

Re-Direction – The convergence of Israeli plans with American plans

Seymour Hersh wrote in 2007 that after the 2006 defeat of Israel in Lebanon that the US government had a new strategy called the “redirection.” According to Hersh, the “redirection” had “brought the United States closer to an open confrontation with Iran and, in parts of the region, propelled it into a widening sectarian conflict between Shiite and Sunni Muslims.” With the cooperation of Saudi Arabia and all the same players that helped launch Osama bin Ladin’s career in Afghanistan, the US government took “part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria.” The most important thing to note is what Hersh says next: “A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.”

Status of Forces agreement

During the recent attacks of ISIS in Iraq, Obama indicated that US military aid to the besieged regime of Prime Minister Maliki—including US air strikes—would be conditioned on unspecified efforts by the Iraqi government to “promote stability.” One likely condition is that the regime sign the “status of forces” agreement it rejected two-and-a-half years ago and allow the Pentagon to reclaim its bases in Iraq.

What will this achieve? The weapons supply chain extending from Iran>Iraq>Syria>Hezbollah will be disrupted. Israel will be able to neutralise Hezbollah. Next stage will be attack on Iran. An alternative could be to engage Iranians in the protection of their Holy places in Iraq. Another could be infiltration of ISIS rebels in Iran in the guise of pilgrims and commit terrorist acts.

We have to keep in mind that in the presence of an openly assertive Russia, an open US or Israeli attack on Iran or Syria becomes far-fetched.

Let's go back to the Maps:
Ralph_Peters_solution_to_Mideast.jpg


First map by Ralph Peters came in 2006. If we look at US progress on the basis of that map; it hardly achieved any of it's goals. Iraq was already fragmented at that time, so, this was not a prediction but a kind of hindsight. Fragmentation of Saudi Arabia was not a real goal at that time but it was only to scare the cowardly House of Saud, and that is probably only objective the map achieved 100%. All other predictions failed miserably.

0929-syria.jpg



Lets come to the second map which is the brain-fart of Robin Wright. Again, it has predicted the break-up of Libya, which is already kind of semi-achieved, but not complete; this could not be said to be a prediction; more like stating the current state of friction between different regions.

Quite recently, leaders of all three religio-ethnic groups – Sunnis, Shias and Kurds – met with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri-al-Maliki and vowed to keep Iraq together. Same is the intention of all the stake holders in Middle East. Nobody, including Saudi Arabia wants a fragmented Iraq. The current situation will only create more mayhem in Iraq. It may allow US to bring it's forces back to Iraq, but it is unlikely it will go any further than that.

Once again, the fragmentation of Saudi Arabia is just to scare the $hit out of House of Saud and their diapers are already soiled. They are sending money to Pakistan to extract some sort of 'defence alliance'!

One thing very positive about this map is that they have not even dared to include the map of a truncated Pakistan. The US Neo-cons have accepted their defeat in breaking up Pakistan. Insha Allah, they will lose out on all fronts again.

Robin Wright map is going to be as good as Ralph Peters'.
 
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