High cost of Mirage-2000 upgrade raises eyebrows

[Sergi]

Care to explain how you know this?

Any evidence to backup your claims?

(Saying that you cant think of any other explanation is not an evidence, and technically it is called "argument from ignorance").

It's also called a conspiracy theory

Au Contrare.. it is quite capable in A2G as well.. the lack of capability is based more on customer demand..
The member nations focused more on the A2A role being operational earlier.

I think sancho answered it better than me

Even IAFs current M2K is far mor multi role capable than the EF and with the upgrades it will be even better in all roles!

Really ??? If m2k are going to be better than EF after this upgrade I have no objection on it ATALL.
With this money we can buy 30/35 more Rafales. So getting 50 planes if the nearly same standard in that same price is good deal

 

[sancho]

The likely explanations for the above costing being talked about is:
1. Some very extensive rebuild/repair facilities being set up at HAL.

That we wanted on our own, just like we do for the Migs, so these are not part of the upgrade costs for the Mirage, but are modernisations of HAL and the same was never included in any calculation for the Mig right?

2. More extensive 'tinkering around' with the innards of the M2K than is being published. Some of those processes and equipment are very likely to be cross-platform with the Rafales.

The general airframe overhaul is the same as we do with the Migs, life extention, addition of hardpoints, but yes there seems to be more, but I think it has more to do with certain roles the M2K might be meant for, than commonality to Rafale.

3. India's insistence on being involved in much greater measure generally; with long-term maintenance of both French and Russian platforms.

That makes sense for new fighters, but not for fighters that will get their last life extention. That's why even these upgraded fighters will remain to be our low end fighters as soon as LCA comes in with an AESA radar and more modern capabilities. Just look at the Jaguars now, it was a total waste to keep producing it till 2008, only because we could do it in India, since it will be next to useless even before this decade ends. Upgraded Mig 29s, M2Ks, even LCA MK1 will be more capable in the strike role, Rafale and MKI are far superior and with more and more drones coming in, there is not even a niche for them in recon or CAS roles.
So we gathered the capability to maintain them for the long term, alsthough they won't be useful anymore, just like the upgrade in India for Mig 29s and M2Ks wasn't needed.

 

[sancho]

@sancho: you had made that point too, about cost of facilities. Apparently that's not included in this figure.

True, I always get confused by the crore figures, but still the upgrade cost alone is just $1.8 billion and not $3 or more billions. The Mig upgrade cost including engines is $964 + $275 million = $1.239 billion, not included Indian/French/Israeli avionics, not included the upgrade costs at HAL, or any weaponary. Even if you just add an estimate cost of the avionics package, the overall cost of the Mig might be $500 millions above of what is generally copied and pasted in the media right?
I don't deny that the Mirage upgrade is expensive, but I think it is worth it to modernise them, since it is one of our moest capable and proven fighters in the fleet.

Really ??? If m2k are going to be better than EF after this upgrade I have no objection on it ATALL.
With this money we can buy 30/35 more Rafales. So getting 50 planes if the nearly same standard in that same price is good deal

As a multi role fighter, since it is able to do cruise missile or stand off strikes, can use bunker busters and all things that the EF can't offer anytime soon.
Even technically the M2K-5/9 techs offer similar standards in terms of radar or avionics, but the general A2A performance of the EF is of course far better.
With the money we can get a lot of new fighters, but setting up new training, tactics, logistics and gaining the same ammount of experience we have like with the M2K, will add costs and a lot of time. That is something that we forumers often forget when we make our calculations, but IAF don't! They know exactly what they have with the M2K, that's why they wanted additional fighters for years now, but first we didn't had the money, then the MRCA competition was cancelled and re-issued and inbetween we couldn't even get 2nd hand once to realistic prices. But it shows how badly the IAF wants to keep these fighters and how highly regared they must be.

 

[Abingdonboy]

What alternative did the IAF have? Throw away good planes with at least another 15 years of life left in them (words of ACM Naik btw) and wait atleast a decade (comments were made 1-2 years ago) for the replacement Rafales to be delivered (the M2Ks replacement Rafales would be stuck onto the 126+ order so those delivered to the M2K SQDs would be well done the road of HAL production). The IAF was faced with doing the above or biting the bullet and ensuring these M2Ks remained relevant and up to the high spec the IAF is now trying to achive across its entire fleet. Otherwise, if nothing was done, these M2Ks would have become the new "flying coffins" and not only that would be so outdated they'd be irrelvant in a conflict involving the IAF.

 

[Abingdonboy]

There is defeinelty some sort of mis-information propaganda campaign being launched from somewhere on the MMRCA deal right now, look in the last 3 days:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...pgraded-rs-167-cr-per-aircraft-2011-govt.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...marks-over-dassaults-re-entry-into-mmrca.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...00-upgrade-raises-eyebrows-3.html#post3997911


And these reports are being repeated across the Indian media. This isn't just another outlandish conspiracy theory, there are those with vested interests with deep pockets who stand to lose BILLIONS if they don't get this deal and will do anything they can to secure the buisness. As the talks are coming to an end the desperation amongst certain elemants seems to be increasing.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Everyone needs to be on their guard now, up till now all sides (Govt and vendor alike) have repeatedly praised the IAF and MoD for their professional, fair and unbiased approach to the entire complex MMRCA process. Now at the last hour some effers are going to come in and try to say the entire process has been rigged?! It is beyond absurd but it is this kind of BS that delays deals in India indefinitely.


If there is even a credible perception of validity in these allegations the "Saint" has set the precedent- this deal will be put on the back burner as investigations are carried out and then the deal will be quietly killed off a few months down the road regardless of whether the investigations have come back or whether there is any truth behind these allegations.


The "Saint" has now laid out such a blueprint for any disgruntled losers of certain competitions to come in and sabotage the winners and screw over the Indian military and nation.


I sincerely hope Antony's selfish tendencies don't lead him to do somthing disasterous in this case.



As much as I have been against it I now hope India starts doing more deals with the US so that defence procurements are all done through FMS where there is almost zero scope for any allegations let alone actual wrong-doing. At least that way we'd have some assurances these deals would go through instead of these perpetual delays and the cycles of tender, cancellation, re-tender.

 

[Sergi]

True, I always get confused by the crore figures, but still the upgrade cost alone is just $1.8 billion and not $3 or more billions. The Mig upgrade cost including engines is $964 + $275 million = $1.239 billion, not included Indian/French/Israeli avionics, not included the upgrade costs at HAL, or any weaponary. Even if you just add an estimate cost of the avionics package, the overall cost of the Mig might be $500 millions above of what is generally copied and pasted in the media right?
I don't deny that the Mirage upgrade is expensive, but I think it is worth it to modernise them, since it is one of our moest capable and proven fighters in the fleet.



As a multi role fighter, since it is able to do cruise missile or stand off strikes, can use bunker busters and all things that the EF can't offer anytime soon.
Even technically the M2K-5/9 techs offer similar standards in terms of radar or avionics, but the general A2A performance of the EF is of course far better.
With the money we can get a lot of new fighters, but setting up new training, tactics, logistics and gaining the same ammount of experience we have like with the M2K, will add costs and a lot of time. That is something that we forumers often forget when we make our calculations, but IAF don't! They know exactly what they have with the M2K, that's why they wanted additional fighters for years now, but first we didn't had the money, then the MRCA competition was cancelled and re-issued and inbetween we couldn't even get 2nd hand once to realistic prices. But it shows how badly the IAF wants to keep these fighters and how highly regared they must be.

Agree with most if the post.
But in current situation we are going to buy Rafael any way so all the things you mention like training , tactics logistics and getting exp. thing are bound to follow that.
So wasn't it a better option to keep these planes as is till we start getting Rafales and then sell them and use that and this upgrade money to buy 30/35 more ???
These upgrades aren't going to be complete in near future. They gona take some serious time

 

[janon]

True, I always get confused by the crore figures, but still the upgrade cost alone is just $1.8 billion and not $3 or more billions. The Mig upgrade cost including engines is $964 + $275 million = $1.239 billion, not included Indian/French/Israeli avionics, not included the upgrade costs at HAL, or any weaponary. Even if you just add an estimate cost of the avionics package, the overall cost of the Mig might be $500 millions above of what is generally copied and pasted in the media right?
I don't deny that the Mirage upgrade is expensive, but I think it is worth it to modernise them, since it is one of our moest capable and proven fighters in the fleet.

The cost of weaponry is not added in this deal either. The mig deal plus engines comes to 1.23 billion dollars as you say, for 69 TWIN ENGINED aircrafts, and we get brand new engines for that money, with higher thrust, and smokeless. That's a total of at least 138 engines.

The mirage deal for just 51 aircrafts, doesn't even include new engines (you could argue that it is not needed), and yet the base price is 2.1 billion dollars (or maybe 1.8 billion as you say).

French weapons are also uber expensive, and the total costs come to upwards of 4 billion dollars, as per the link I posted, and quite a few other links (Indian and non Indian, so let's not blame the desi journos this time).

So to keep a fleet of 51 fighters relevant for another 15-20 years, we are paying 4 billion dollars. One could buy two JF-17s for the price of UPGRADATION of on mirage. The IAF has no choice here, as @Abingdonboy says, and as I said earlier - they have extensive experience with the mirages, and they love them, so they want to keep milking every hour of the airframe life. Unfortunately the French are making us pay a lot, just as they are making us pay a lot for their missiles (ten times what an American missile would cost).

If we want to blame anybody for this, we should blame everybody, for not developing the industrial capability to do such things within India. Also, for operating such small numbers of good aircrafts. If we had ordered 150+ mirages and produced some of them here, we would not have needed to run to France for each upgrade or spares. We bought just 60 or so mirages, which doesn't make it worthwhile to open a production line or deep overhaul facilities in India. I suppose that is why GoI and IAF are adamant that the Rafales should be produced in India - although the initial costs are high, the upgrades, spares etc would be much cheaper later on, even if the production line in France closes.

 

[Sergi]

There is defeinelty some sort of mis-information propaganda campaign being launched from somewhere on the MMRCA deal right now, look in the last 3 days:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...pgraded-rs-167-cr-per-aircraft-2011-govt.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...marks-over-dassaults-re-entry-into-mmrca.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...00-upgrade-raises-eyebrows-3.html#post3997911


And these reports are being repeated across the Indian media. This isn't just another outlandish conspiracy theory, there are those with vested interests with deep pockets who stand to lose BILLIONS if they don't get this deal and will do anything they can to secure the buisness. As the talks are coming to an end the desperation amongst certain elemants seems to be increasing.

Upgrade price is serious issue for the people like me who knows zero in aviation. So somebody with better knowledge should get to hat ASAP

IAF need to answer why they prefer to upgrade these planes at that cost when they have a option to buy more new planes of better capabilities . It's a trusted plane and served us well Nodoubt , but it still can't answer the justification of the money we are going to spend.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Agree with most if the post.
But in current situation we are going to buy Rafael any way so all the things you mention like training , tactics logistics and getting exp. thing are bound to follow that.
So wasn't it a better option to keep these planes as is till we start getting Rafales and then sell them and use that and this upgrade money to buy 30/35 more ???
These upgrades aren't going to be complete in near future. They gona take some serious time

@Sergi who will buy Mirage 2000-Hs? The UAEhave been trying to shift their -5s for years now with no buyer in sight. Also you have to calculate the timing, at a time when the IAF is trying to grapple with a scarily plummeting SQD strength, do you really think it is wise for them to just off load 2 SQDs? And you have to remember these 2 SQDs won't be reformed for at least 8-9 years as the replacement Rafales are a LONG way out. What do you do with all those pilots who now have no machine to fly and you (the IAF and Indian taxpayer) have spent millions of USD to train each one?

Addtionally if you think the Rafale is going to arrive in India and immediately be operationally ready with the IAF then you're batting way off. Not only will it take the best part of 2 years to have a decently sized fleet, but it will take even longer for the IAF to be fully comfortable in integrating the Rafale into their combat strategy. Remember when the SU-30s first arrived in India? Why weren't they used in the 1999 Kargil conflict?

It is a fact the first 2-3 Rafales are destined to go to the TACDE SQD who will take 24-36 months to push the machine to its limits and write the IAF's combat manual for the type. What a brochure or OEM says is one thing but the IAF is a thoroughly professional AF who understands the needs to have their own Indian-specific understanding of a machine.


On the other hand the M2Ks have done their time in purgatory (TACDE), have earned the respect of the IAF in real life combat (Kargil) and are a known quantity for the IAF. At a time when the IAF is going to be receiving numerous types of a/c from a whole manner of different nations (FGFA, SUPER MKI, LCA and RAFALE) it is understandable the IAF would like to have a trustworthy and proven machine around for another few years whilst it gets its collective head around the gargantuan challenge before it.


Faced with all these considerations the IAF made the most logical decision it could.

Upgrade price is serious issue for the people like me who knows zero in aviation. So somebody with better knowledge should get to hat ASAP

IAF need to answer why they prefer to upgrade these planes at that cost when they have a option to buy more new planes of better capabilities . It's a trusted plane and served us well Nodoubt , but it still can't answer the justification of the money we are going to spend.

Mate ALL these questions and more where asked for years before the M2K upgrade was actually signed. The Indian media seems to have forgotten how hard it badgered the IAF on this issue.

But for some inexplicable reason the media is 1-2 years down the road raising this exact issue once again, after initial funds have been released to Dassualt, after the contract has been inked, after training has been begun, after upgrades on the first 2 machines have begun in France.

Ask yourself why now? Do you think the fact the Rafale deal is only a few weeks/months away from being signed is inconsequential?


You yourself admit you are ignorant to such matters and yet you expect the media is telling you the truth and things you don't know but should know? Please the journos who are telling us all this are as clueless on these matters as you, if not more so.

 

[janon]

@Sergi who will buy Mirage 2000-Hs? The UAEhave been trying to shift their -5s for years now with no buyer in sight. Also you have to calculate the timing, at a time when the IAF is trying to grapple with a scarily plummeting SQD strength, do you really think it is wise for them to just off load 2 SQDs? And you have to remember these 2 SQDs won't be reformed for at least 8-9 years as the replacement Rafales are a LONG way out. What do you do with all those pilots who now have no machine to fly and you (the IAF and Indian taxpayer) have spent millions of USD to train each one?

That part is not very convincing. They could have continued to use the mirages until the end of their lives, without upgrading them. The upgrades DO NOT include any airframe life extension or strengthening. So their useful lives would have been the same, with or without upgradation. So you are attacking a straw man when you talk about immediately retiring them and falling squadron numbers and pilots being out of jobs. They may not be as potent as the upgraded ones, but still better than most aircrafts flown by our main adversary.

For the cost of these upgradations, the IAF could have bought spanking new MKIs, with a lot more airframe life than these used mirages, and a lot more potent in every role. All the other advantages you mentioned will be shared - the MKI is also an aircraft they have experience with now, just like the mirages. We would not have needed new training or logistics, and spares can all be produced at HAL. The weapons package would have come a small fraction of the cost. We could have gotten at least one MKI and associated weaponry, for the price of upgrading one mirage and buying the associated weaponry. (The total cost including weapons is more than 4 billion dollars.)

That would have ensured a much higher combat capability for the IAF, to have un-upgraded mirages, and an equal number of MKIs, than just having upgraded mirages.

 

[sancho]

Agree with most if the post.
But in current situation we are going to buy Rafael any way so all the things you mention like training , tactics logistics and getting exp. thing are bound to follow that.
So wasn't it a better option to keep these planes as is till we start getting Rafales and then sell them and use that and this upgrade money to buy 30/35 more ???
These upgrades aren't going to be complete in near future. They gona take some serious time

As you know, I am hoping for more Rafales of the shelf for a long time, but it doesn't seems to be the wish of MoD/IAF and the industry. Personally I think, if the M2Ks will be specially geared for the nuclear role, I do would have prefered new Rafales, or even 2nd hand M2K-Ns which the French are phasing out. But Rafales are meant to replace Migs and to face mainly PLAAF, while M2Ks will more more than capable to face PAF in the coming years. That's why I definitely would have kept them and would have replaced some Migs at the western borders with them, instead of spending twice the money to get a Rafale and replace another fighter, that don't need replacements now.

Btw, who would buy a fighter that needs extensive overhauls? If at all, we should try to sell some of the latest Jaguars and save some money in that area.

The cost of weaponry is not added in this deal either.

It is:

Then, early last year, the second contract worth around Rs 6,600 crore for 490 advanced fire-and-forget MICA

Only then you get to 17+ crores

The mig deal plus engines comes to 1.23 billion dollars as you say, for 69 TWIN ENGINED aircrafts, and we get brand new engines for that money, with higher thrust, and smokeless.

It's $275 million for 120 x RD33-3 series and they are far away from beeing smokeless, not to mention that these engines are not an addtion, but a nececity, because Russian engines have less life than western, that's why they needs replacements, while the M53-P2, that came in IAF at pretty much the same time, don't need replacements.
French weapons (depending on which one we actually buy, MICA yes, AASM no, exocet no, but I still hope for Scalp, otherwise I think there will be US LGBs and Israeli PGMs) are also more capable, which is why they are costlier, but that's another story.

If we had ordered 150+ mirages and produced some of them here, we would not have needed to run to France for each upgrade or spares.

IAF wanted, as I said in one of my last posts, but we still would have needed the French for the upgrades, since as you said, our industrial capability is not even close yet and we can't develop similar techs yet. That will come in future and I am sure, we will add some indian weapons and systems to Rafale in future, to reduce costs and dependance, but still, Dassault will make the upgrades, although we might have more options for alternative systems then.

 

[Abingdonboy]

If we want to blame anybody for this, we should blame everybody, for not developing the industrial capability to do such things within India. Also, for operating such small numbers of good aircrafts. If we had ordered 150+ mirages and produced some of them here, we would not have needed to run to France for each upgrade or spares. We bought just 60 or so mirages, which doesn't make it worthwhile to open a production line or deep overhaul facilities in India. I suppose that is why GoI and IAF are adamant that the Rafales should be produced in India - although the initial costs are high, the upgrades, spares etc would be much cheaper later on, even if the production line in France closes.

One of the most sensible things I've read all day!



+ it should come as no surprise to anyone that French toys are a lot more expensive than Russian ones! But you get what you pay for and if you look even at the MIG-29UPG deal, much of the high-end and expensive kit being fitted is itself French.


If anyone thinks that the MIG-29UPG will serve the IAF better than the M2K-UPGs then you are deluding yourself.


All one has to do is look through the years of CAG reports, if there is one nation whose products are flagged up for their high AoG rate and poor supply chain it is the Russians.

 

[INDIAISM]

Any fighter that can carry A2A and A2G weaponary is a multi role fighter, but some are more geared by design or capability for A2A and some more for A2G.

The MKI is a varient of the Su 30MK, a multi role tandem seat Flanker, but with the addition of canards, TVC and BARS radar made it more capable in A2A than other Su 30s, while remaining with the same powerful strike capability that all Flankers have.

Su 35 - single seat, multi role fighter, 12 hardpoints, 8t payload, geared for A2A
Su 34 - side by side twin seat, multi role fighter, 12 hardpoints, 8t payload, geared for A2G
Su 30 - tandem twin seat, multi role fighter, 12 hardpoints, 8t payload, good in both



Which means, to have a balanced multi role capability by design. It was developed to be equally good in all roles, while the EF for example was developed for A2A mainly, with A2G as a secondary capability and still, they all are multi role fighters.


On topic, another crappy sensational article of the Indian media!

They not only counted the upgraded costs (around $2 billion dollar), but added the costs of HAL to set up new facilities, or even seperate weapon deals (btw, SPICE 2000 is cleared for M2K UPG as well, so when will they add that cost too?).
At the same time they still take only the base upgrade cost of the Mig 29 for Russia to account, without the costs for the engines, western and Indian avionics, or weapons like Kh 35, or the A2G weapons that now will be added, just to make the difference look bigger.

The best choice would have been, to let Dassault do the upgrades alone and send some M2Ks to France in packages. Would have been much easier, cheaper and faster, but who knows what MoD/IAF have in mind with these M2Ks, the upgrade seems not to be a small one.

Sir i don't know why i feel that alot of M2K upgrade systems will find its way to LCA Mk2....
and that most probably be one the reasons that Ministry of Defence has agreed to pay such a high amount for this upgrade...

 

[theone-neo]

Kickbacks..blacklist Dassault.

lol ban for what.... its cost that much.... our politician decided to upgrade so whats company fault in it...
iwi & augusta westland is under cbi investigation... if we ban all who provide parts an machine