Get Used to It, America: We’re No Longer No. 1

[Sanchez]

Honestly, US is still No.1 in the world and will remain so for many years to come! But US is in no position to play a thugery to others anymore. In Chinese words you can't be a virgin and a hooker in the same time.

 

[Mista]

Bro, you only get to increase the 'external demand' if people are actually hoarding it like dollars $.

You mean external supply.

That is if there are capital controls in place, which China is doing to prevent capital outflow due to imbalances in the domestic and external equilibrium. The PBoC then uses the USD it accumulated to back the RMB, and that is why the trade war has far more implications financially rather than economically.

坦率地说，近十年来，中国M2的发行量几乎是世界第一。我们的M2对GDP之比为2.1：1，而美国为0.9：1。发了这么多货币，为什么大家感觉不到呢？有很多原因，但有两个原因最为重要。

一是我们的基础货币发行很大程度是用外汇占款来实现的。也就是央行收购企业和公司个人手中的美元，按照市场汇率再释放出人民币，通过这种方式把流动性释放出来。

外汇占款占到央行释放流动性的比例最高时达到80%以上，目前也在60%到左右。也就是说，美元储备是人民币发行的重要的信用基础，这在很大程度上确保了人民币汇率的稳定。

当然还有一个重要原因就是房地产扩张，使得央行释放出来的相当大一部分流动性被房地产套住了。

所以，贸易战果真打下去，接下来的影响就会涉及到货币金融领域。

美国人非常清楚，如果我们的美元储备大幅度减少，那么人民币发行的信用基础就会出问题。还有一点，就是我们赚取外汇的能力也将受到影响。

Imagine printing RMB and you created some overnight millionaires, how much rice will he consume? He might eat another bowl? Might eat sharkfin? But the inflation on essential goods is minimal. The only thing he would spend more is buying properties or buying more expensive properties, thereby increasing the asset inflation.

No disagreement there in the first place? I've stated right from the start that excessive money supply is leading to severe asset inflation in China.

You also fail to understand, these properties only have at most 70 year leases, the prices CAN GO DOWN.

It will definitely go down one day but the question is, in what manner? China's real estate value is at 411% of GDP. Japan's is around 200% in 1990 before the asset bubble burst. The US's is around 170% in 2006 before the subprime mortgage crisis.

What financial risk does it pose if it goes down too fast?

That's why I saw US is a casino economy, the manufacturing base is hollowed out, services are mainly paper pushing financial services.

But the US still holds ownership even if manufacturing 'hollows out'. Look at Apple. Most of the leading tech companies in the world and cutting-edge technologies are still from the US.

 

[Khan_21]

US is an immigration country and China is not, there's no way foreigners can immigrate to China and we don't have immigration office, almost every Amercian is an immigrant so Europeans immigrate to US more than Asians. As for dollar based GDP, it doesn't explain everything, it can be changed drastically by the value of the stcok market and currency exchange rate, other factors just as trade, heavy industrial and manufacturing are more reliable and stable.

Nobody is going to choose China over US to immigrate even if China opens its borders to take in people. China isn't some desirable country that people want to immigrate to. The Quality of Life is vastly inferior compared to US/Europe.

 

[Han Patriot]

You mean external supply.

That is if there are capital controls in place, which China is doing to prevent capital outflow due to imbalances in the domestic and external equilibrium. The PBoC then uses the USD it accumulated to back the RMB, and that is why the trade war has far more implications financially rather than economically.

There is no 'external supply'. RMB is printed and distributed out of China, you don't get the supply externally. There is however external demand, the amount people demand to use for trade and buying it using dollars. Hence all the value of currencies in this world is bench marked against dollars. The more demand there is, the values rises against the benchmarked dollars since you need dollars to buy RMB.

There is already capital controls in place, China is more worried about dollars$ flowing out than RMB flowing out, it is practically valueless outside China. You want more RMB? We can print more for yah babe. Exactly, RMB is backed by the world's largest forex. That's why I tell people, the world is CHIMERICA. US needs China as much as China needs US, without us backing it as the trading currency, it is worthless too. Nobody wants to rock that boat, and that's the reason US is in a dilemma, they can't destroy China without destroying themselves. You think it's a coincidence China hoards US bonds? That's the WMD card China is holding.

Anyway, all money is just paper, you need to use it to do things and enrich the lives of the people. You can have 100s of billionaires like India but if your infrastructure and people are living like shit, it makes no difference. I have never been worried by Chinese infrastructure spending, they are using that paper wisely, buying raw materials and building up China.

It will definitely go down one day but the question is, in what manner? China's real estate value is at 411% of GDP. Japan's is around 200% in 1990 before the asset bubble burst. The US's is around 170% in 2006 before the subprime mortgage crisis.

What financial risk does it pose if it goes down too fast?



But the US still holds ownership even if manufacturing 'hollows out'. Look at Apple. Most of the leading tech companies in the world and cutting-edge technologies are still from the US.

Up or down doesn't matter, as long as the social affordable housing is in place like HDBs in Singapore. Those overpriced properties are just a way to destroy excessive money. It's a closed loop system, you need to balance it in the end. That's why governments encourage you to gamble in the stocks exchange. Let me give you an example, whats the difference between a billionaire and millionaire. Both are living luxuriously, but both are not gonna use up all their money right, and most of their worth is based on stock prices. So excess money printed are being destroyed in this manner. It is a BIG CASINO.

What exactly does APPLE own except a brand name? IP? All the key technologies are developed by others, they just 'SPEC' the phone, that's their IP. You think you build up industrial base in a jiff? It takes decades to build up the supply chain. If they could replace China, they would have done it long ago. The future is no more about cheap labour and China isn't exactly cheap, the future is automation and robotics.

 

[OIO]

China's CGTN panel said that Westerners were severely disappointed when Chinese modernization did not equal China becoming a Western puppet like Japan and South Korea.

Since this did not happen, the zionists want to end the rise of Chinese ASAP. China is too "dangerous" with that much growth and success, they may not go along with the planned program and set off/delay their evil diabolical masonic world domination by a few decades or centuries. By that time the robots may have taken over.

The Masons destroyed Europe and handed it to jews. A China for the Chinese was never part of the plan. A China for the Chinese could save the world, including America.

Totally out of control by Five EYEs!

is shifting back to Asia, specially China..

It's still the competition between sea power and land power, But this time China is developing both sea power and land power.
Europe will not follow the Five Eyes, and Jews will abandon Five Eyes at a critical time.
While the Asia-Europe island becoming peace the Five Eyes will be left in the world edge.
Pakistan and Mid-east will be the bridge between China and Europe after highway and high speed railway built.

 

[Mista]

There is no 'external supply'. RMB is printed and distributed out of China, you don't get the supply externally.

That's exactly my point. China prints the money domestically however it doesn't flow out because of capital controls. The downside is severe domestic asset inflation.

You think it's a coincidence China hoards US bonds? That's the WMD card China is holding.

China holds US bonds for her own interest, to earn returns and back the RMB as well. I wouldn't call it a WMD since China holds only a small fraction of the US's total federal debt. Japan hold almost as much US bonds but no one's saying that Japan can destroy the US financially.

I have never been worried by Chinese infrastructure spending, they are using that paper wisely, buying raw materials and building up China.

It has to make some financial sense otherwise it leads to inefficiencies in allocation of capital and it will be a drag on the economy for decades to come, like Japan. You know Singapore is building the T5 terminal right now and its cost and feasibility is heavily scrutinized even though we can easily dip into our $1 trillion reserves to pay for it.

Up or down doesn't matter, as long as the social affordable housing is in place like HDBs in Singapore.

It does matter because most of the household's wealth and listed companies' profits are in the real estate.
But I think it's actually a good thing in the long term if prices drop. Housing becomes affordable and companies focus on innovating rather than making a quick buck through property speculation.

What exactly does APPLE own except a brand name? IP? All the key technologies are developed by others, they just 'SPEC' the phone, that's their IP. You think you build up industrial base in a jiff? It takes decades to build up the supply chain.

And the majority of these key technologies are owned by US companies. I mean even Huawei's semiconductors, more than half of the technologies come from the US. How is the US a 'casino' economy when it's the most technologically advance economy in the world by far?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Half of Huawei's chip patents! WOW!

ZTE must be ridiculous then.

 

[Placemat]

China never wants to become America.

China does not want to become America in its duties but wants to get all the rights that the US has. But that will not happen because it will never have the diversity of talent that the US attracts.

 

[Han Patriot]

That's exactly my point. China prints the money domestically however it doesn't flow out because of capital controls. The downside is severe domestic asset inflation.

It doesn't matter if RMB flows out or otherwise, China will still inflate and contract the money supply like all countries using the central bank. And yes, the only inflation you can see is properties and I think the PRC government is addressing this issue by building HDB like scheme all over the bigger cities.

China holds US bonds for her own interest, to earn returns and back the RMB as well. I wouldn't call it a WMD since China holds only a small fraction of the US's total federal debt. Japan hold almost as much US bonds but no one's saying that Japan can destroy the US financially.

US bonds gives crappy returns OK. The only reason China is holding it is to dissuade US from sinking the ship. This is a leverage and card China uses to make sure US behaves. Why do you think year after year, we are accumulating surplus, growing, getting richer and more developed without US kicking us out of the system. The only defense is to make sure there is a great pain, a pain so great that it is impossible to isolate us. Japan does it for a different reason, more of like tribute payment for their masters. Don't forget this is just US bonds, we have another 2 trillion worth of US forex holdings. That's alot of ammunition baby.

It has to make some financial sense otherwise it leads to inefficiencies in allocation of capital and it will be a drag on the economy for decades to come, like Japan. You know Singapore is building the T5 terminal right now and its cost and feasibility is heavily scrutinized even though we can easily dip into our $1 trillion reserves to pay for it.

There will always be inefficiencies and wastages, it is better than using paper to play the casino game like in the US. If more of their money is used to repair their creaking infrastructure, US would be dominant for many years o come. Instead the majority of the money is used for Wall St games. US can never build a HSR like China yet they can spend trillions in Iraq. =)

It does matter because most of the household's wealth and listed companies' profits are in the real estate.
But I think it's actually a good thing in the long term if prices drop. Housing becomes affordable and companies focus on innovating rather than making a quick buck through property speculation.

Alot of profit is actually earned through producing real tangible goods and services not just properties. China is the second largest spender on R&D, still alot to do to reach US levels but hey nothing to complain, a decade ago, nobody would have thought of even comparing with the US. We are getting too much attention now.

And the majority of these key technologies are owned by US companies. I mean even Huawei's semiconductors, more than half of the technologies come from the US. How is the US a 'casino' economy when it's the most technologically advance economy in the world by far?

I would beg to differ. The key technology for 5G is actually in the hands of Chinese telco vendors like ZTE and HUAWEI, certain components or more precisely certain semiconductors are in the hands of US companies but we can use other suppliers from EU and Japan too or even use domestic equivalents. The problem is time, it takes time to recreate the supply chain. Most 5G and 4G patents are in the hands of ZTE and Huawei, why do you think US is so worried

The same can be said if US tried to compete with China, they would have to source the other half of the technologies from China for telco equipment.

 

[Mista]

It doesn't matter if RMB flows out or otherwise, China will still inflate and contract the money supply like all countries using the central bank.

You're making no sense. If it doesn't matter, why does China have such strict capital controls? Why did China spent a trillion dollar to defend the RMB from falling below a psychological level?

Japan does it for a different reason, more of like tribute payment for their masters.

...

If it's China, you say it's a WMD and a leverage.
If it's Japan, you say it's a tribute.

Don't forget this is just US bonds, we have another 2 trillion worth of US forex holdings.

Do you understand how bonds work? And do you think you can bring mass financial destruction to the US with that amount of money?

The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269.6 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP) as of Q1 2014.

Alot of profit is actually earned through producing real tangible goods and services not just properties.

Can you give a number with a source?

从短期来看，制约中国经济转型最麻烦的问题就是脱实向虚，什么是脱实向虚，就是大家都玩虚的，都想玩金融，都想炒房子。我举一个数据大家知道中国脱实向虚到什么程度，三千多家上市公司，2017年年底的利润，银行板块+房地产板块，这两个板块上市公司净利润占到全部上市公司净利润差不多80%。这样的经济结构是合理的吗？这样的经济结构是正常的吗？一个金融机构一个银行动辄赚几百亿、几千亿，中国有哪一个制造企业哪一个科技企业赚几千亿啊？一家都没有。所以我们看到很多上市公司把钱拿去炒房子，最近有官方数据，A股上市公司炒房资金超过一万个亿，全部是玩虚的，全部是想赚快钱。

https://finance.sina.cn/2018-08-08/detail-ihhkuskt7869193.d.html

按利润排，前15强中，有10家是银行。

10 out of the 15 most profitable listed Chinese companies are banks.

Half of Huawei's chip patents! WOW!

ZTE must be ridiculous then.

You can understand Chinese?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

You can understand Chinese?

The Google Translate page does voice recognition not just text recognition.

 

[Mista]

The Google Translate page does voice recognition not just text recognition.

Damn, I didn't know that. You can do that for YouTube?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Damn, I didn't know that. You can do that for YouTube?

Open up the youtube vid in one window and open up the Google Translate page in a second one. Select the language, hit the microphone icon then start the youtube video. It transcribes it on the fly. Just US tech at work.

 

[Viet]

You mean external supply.

That is if there are capital controls in place, which China is doing to prevent capital outflow due to imbalances in the domestic and external equilibrium. The PBoC then uses the USD it accumulated to back the RMB, and that is why the trade war has far more implications financially rather than economically.






No disagreement there in the first place? I've stated right from the start that excessive money supply is leading to severe asset inflation in China.



It will definitely go down one day but the question is, in what manner? China's real estate value is at 411% of GDP. Japan's is around 200% in 1990 before the asset bubble burst. The US's is around 170% in 2006 before the subprime mortgage crisis.

What financial risk does it pose if it goes down too fast?



But the US still holds ownership even if manufacturing 'hollows out'. Look at Apple. Most of the leading tech companies in the world and cutting-edge technologies are still from the US.

411%? Wow that means China real estate is a giant bubble!

There is no 'external supply'. RMB is printed and distributed out of China, you don't get the supply externally. There is however external demand, the amount people demand to use for trade and buying it using dollars. Hence all the value of currencies in this world is bench marked against dollars. The more demand there is, the values rises against the benchmarked dollars since you need dollars to buy RMB.

There is already capital controls in place, China is more worried about dollars$ flowing out than RMB flowing out, it is practically valueless outside China. You want more RMB? We can print more for yah babe. Exactly, RMB is backed by the world's largest forex. That's why I tell people, the world is CHIMERICA. US needs China as much as China needs US, without us backing it as the trading currency, it is worthless too. Nobody wants to rock that boat, and that's the reason US is in a dilemma, they can't destroy China without destroying themselves. You think it's a coincidence China hoards US bonds? That's the WMD card China is holding.

Anyway, all money is just paper, you need to use it to do things and enrich the lives of the people. You can have 100s of billionaires like India but if your infrastructure and people are living like shit, it makes no difference. I have never been worried by Chinese infrastructure spending, they are using that paper wisely, buying raw materials and building up China.





Up or down doesn't matter, as long as the social affordable housing is in place like HDBs in Singapore. Those overpriced properties are just a way to destroy excessive money. It's a closed loop system, you need to balance it in the end. That's why governments encourage you to gamble in the stocks exchange. Let me give you an example, whats the difference between a billionaire and millionaire. Both are living luxuriously, but both are not gonna use up all their money right, and most of their worth is based on stock prices. So excess money printed are being destroyed in this manner. It is a BIG CASINO.

What exactly does APPLE own except a brand name? IP? All the key technologies are developed by others, they just 'SPEC' the phone, that's their IP. You think you build up industrial base in a jiff? It takes decades to build up the supply chain. If they could replace China, they would have done it long ago. The future is no more about cheap labour and China isn't exactly cheap, the future is automation and robotics.

Nonsense. How do you want to pay for imports without dollars? Not many countries accept Yuan. China will commit economic suicide if selling all US bonds. Do you think the market will crash?The US central bank can easily buy all Chinese holdings without blinking an eye.

It’s rediculous threatening the US by selling dollars.

But ok please tag me when China resorts to WMD by selling all US holdings

 

[Senang Diri]

Open up the youtube vid in one window and open up the Google Translate page in a second one. Select the language, hit the microphone icon then start the youtube video. It transcribes it on the fly. Just US tech at work.

Don't mistake him for a Singaporean plz.

His failed take on Singlish, which is the defining characteristic of a Singaporean, told him apart.

He looked up "SAF Signals" on Google and stumbled upon HQ at Stagmont. That's all he knows abt defence. He went missing whenever any defence related discussion crops up. Yet, he claims to be a Singaporean with awful Singlish, piecing together news items from mass media and looking up only a single subforum where more than 50% of members happens to be foreign. He wouldn't know because he is a foreigner too, just ashamed of his flag. A true blue Singaporean can easily tell these foreigners apart.

Speaking of Machine Translation, Singapore's A*STAR helped Baidu with many south east asian languages.

A*STAR assisted Baidu in developing music search tech, too.

https://www.researchsea.com/html/ar...gapore-developed_music_search_technology.html

Baidu-I2R Research Centre Launches Singapore-developed Music Search Technology

Just don't mistake him for a Singaporean, plz. He only knows how to yap abt GDP, Economy and housing in a defence forum.

Too bad for him, there is no Baidu or Google translate from/to Singlish.