Get Used to It, America: We’re No Longer No. 1

[Surya 1]

China is ofcourse the biggest economy of the world.

 

[VCheng]

So the fact that China is now or will soon be the world’s biggest economy matters a lot. It means the U.S. can no longer depend as much on its large markets to secure investment or geopolitical fealty. Unless China makes severe missteps in the near future — like barring foreign companies, crushing productivity with excessive government control, or precipitating domestic conflict — it will enjoy many of the benefits that once flowed to its chief rival.

China's biggest problem will be its rapidly changing demographics over the next three decades, with a sharp rise in the number of retirees per worker to support. That alone will have a huge adverse effect. USA does not have such a drastic change looming over it at all.

 

[925boy]

We are living in an interesting time, the turning point of the world economy, for first time in several hundred years, the center of the global economy is shifting away from the west.

Agreed. Multi-polarism is here and it is very "democratized".

Judging from what the west is doing to China now, the west has already lost it

West hasnt lost it. US is still #1 super power(by proof). Main thing going on now is that the advantage over China is small now. Something tells me EU wont follow US as completely as before again

 

[Khan_21]

It's more like 5 times, but a country's strength is not really decided by per capita GDP, is so, Chinese Macau would be the number one in the world, besides, the report is from US, that's why they say us, you should take your issues with them.

America's economy is still bigger by about $6 Trillion despite having a 5 Times lesser Population. If you are comparing metrics than sorry in about every metric or quality of life america is far ahead. Chinese are lining up to immigrate to US as we speak and its not the other way round.

 

[Han Patriot]

China is even more guilty of printing money than the US actually and the property sector is soaking up the liquidity.

The US has been tightening monetary policy while China is easing monetary policy. You can argue that the Yuan is actually overvalued looking at M2 supply, although there are other factors as work.

Full post:
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/mike...the-last-25-years.581550/page-6#post-10862736

Printing money for domestic consumption and exporting the inflation overseas are two different things. Monetary expansion with goods and services production expansion is understandable. The US is expanding money supply just to cover their extreme deficit spending. To lower inflation they sell bonds and import cheap goods from other countries.

Money supply does not dictate the value of that currency. Overseas demand for that currency is the factor determining it. The US military is the stick which makes everyone use their currency to maintain it's value. That's the difference.

Let me explain to you an analogy, whether you have 100mil$ or 100$, you are just gonna buy at most 2 or 3 Tvs, eat 2-3 bowls of rice. As long as you economy is in surplus for primary goods and services, the money is just being soaked into the banking system. Yes, property is the only sector where inflation is most prominent. Therefore Chinese government is limiting the purchase per person in cities.

 

[beijingwalker]

America's economy is still bigger by about $6 Trillion despite having a 5 Times lesser Population. If you are comparing metrics than sorry in about every metric or quality of life america is far ahead. Chinese are lining up to immigrate to US as we speak and its not the other way round.

US is an immigration country and China is not, there's no way foreigners can immigrate to China and we don't have immigration office, almost every Amercian is an immigrant so Europeans immigrate to US more than Asians. As for dollar based GDP, it doesn't explain everything, it can be changed drastically by the value of the stcok market and currency exchange rate, other factors just as trade, heavy industrial and manufacturing are more reliable and stable.

 

[Neptune_]

Who is the no 1 then? China?

Haha, delusion is strong in this one. China still needs 100s of years to have the types of influence US has over rest of the world. Lol.

 

[beijingwalker]

Who is the no 1 then? China?

Haha, delusion is strong in this one. China still needs 100s of years to have the types of influence US has over rest of the world. Lol.

Maybe China never will, it's more to do with US decline than China's rise.

 

[Mista]

Money supply does not dictate the value of that currency.

...

It does, assuming if money flows across borders freely. Excess supply will cause the equilibrium price to fall ceteris paribus. Right now because of capital controls the inflation is all pent up domestically, and there is severe asset inflation in the real estate.

How are the first-tier cities so much more expensive than SF with a $100K GDP per capita? And SF's housing prices are already considered insane in the US.

Close behind, the San Francisco metro area’s Q3 2017 average weekly wage was $1,654; its 2016 GDP growth rate was 5.4%; and its 2016 GDP per capita was $100,132. Plus, the region’s February 2018 unemployment rate was just 2.9%.

The typical San Francisco household earns about $96,677 each year – nearly double the national median household income of $57,617, according to the US Census Bureau.

 

[nahtanbob]

...

It does, assuming if money flows across borders freely. Excess supply will cause the equilibrium price to fall ceteris paribus. Right now because of capital controls the inflation is all pent up domestically, and there is severe asset inflation in the real estate.

How are the first-tier cities so much more expensive than SF with a $100K GDP per capita? And SF's housing prices are already considered insane in the US.

Sorry housing bubbles are sign of broken system
I prefer the St Louis, Philadelphia of the world over high priced housing markets

 

[Han Patriot]

...

It does, assuming if money flows across borders freely. Excess supply will cause the equilibrium price to fall ceteris paribus. Right now because of capital controls the inflation is all pent up domestically, and there is severe asset inflation in the real estate.

How are the first-tier cities so much more expensive than SF with a $100K GDP per capita? And SF's housing prices are already considered insane in the US.

As I highlighted before the only inflation you can get out of a surplus economy is asset inflation, ie: property speculation. As long as the CCP can provide affordable housing to the lower and middle income groups, it is no different from hoarding excess money in the bank. Imagine the money is now hoarded in a house.

Nope, you can print as much domestically, but the value of your currency compared to another foreign currency still depends on the external demand. If China can export surplus currency like the US, China would have been a superpower, and control the trading system. The reality is, we are still dependent on US$ and the whole is enslaved by this system subsidizing US overspending. The moment US loses it's reserve status, it will collapse. They abandoned the gold standard in the 70s and used oil as the new backing by entering the alliance with the Saudis. That's how they subsidized the arms race with the Soviets for decades and funded their militaristic adventures.

They need a dozen CBGs to ensure the world is docile and toe the line. Everybody must trade in dollars to subsidize the American lifestyle.

Looking at the 'real economy' and not the 'casino' economy, China is already the largest economy. How else you think the US economy can subsidize dear Elon losing billions annually? It's the Wall St Casino bankrolling him.

 

[nahtanbob]

As I highlighted before the only inflation you can get out of a surplus economy is asset inflation, ie: property speculation. As long as the CCP can provide affordable housing to the lower and middle income groups, it is no different from hoarding excess money in the bank. Imagine the money is now hoarded in a house.

Nope, you can print as much domestically, but the value of your currency compared to another foreign currency still depends on the external demand. If China can export surplus currency like the US, China would have been a superpower, and control the trading system. The reality is, we are still dependent on US$ and the whole is enslaved by this system subsidizing US overspending. The moment US loses it's reserve status, it will collapse. They abandoned the gold standard in the 70s and used oil as the new backing by entering the alliance with the Saudis. That's how they subsidized the arms race with the Soviets for decades and funded their militaristic adventures.

America's national debt and foreign debt was quite a bit lower at the end of the cold war

 

[Mista]

Nope, you can print as much domestically, but the value of your currency compared to another foreign currency still depends on the external demand.

The price is determined by both external demand and external supply. Printing money domestically will lead to an increase in external supply if there are no capital controls. Why do you think China had to tighten capital controls and spend a trillion dollar to defend the currency in 2015/2016 ?

Looking at the 'real economy' and not the 'casino' economy, China is already the largest economy.

And China's economy is more 'real' than the US's? Have you look at the profit and market capitalization structure of both countries?

按利润排，前15强中，有10家是银行。

10 out of the 15 most profitable listed Chinese companies are banks. And where do you think the banks are getting their profits from?

第三个，我们怎么解决我们经济脱实向虚的问题。从短期来看，制约中国经济转型最麻烦的问题就是脱实向虚，什么是脱实向虚，就是大家都玩虚的，都想玩金融，都想炒房子。我举一个数据大家知道中国脱实向虚到什么程度，三千多家上市公司，2017年年底的利润，银行板块+房地产板块，这两个板块上市公司净利润占到全部上市公司净利润差不多80%。这样的经济结构是合理的吗？这样的经济结构是正常的吗？一个金融机构一个银行动辄赚几百亿、几千亿，中国有哪一个制造企业哪一个科技企业赚几千亿啊？一家都没有。所以我们看到很多上市公司把钱拿去炒房子，最近有官方数据，A股上市公司炒房资金超过一万个亿，全部是玩虚的，全部是想赚快钱。这不能怪企业家，这应该怪我们的政策，这应该怪我们各级政府的政策。

https://finance.sina.cn/2018-08-08/detail-ihhkuskt7869193.d.html

 

[Mista]

And you compare it to the US with a 'casino' economy:

 

[Han Patriot]

The price is determined by both external demand and external supply. Printing money domestically will lead to an increase in external supply if there are no capital controls. Why do you think China had to tighten capital controls and spend a trillion dollar to defend the currency in 2015/2016 ?

Bro, you only get to increase the 'external demand' if people are actually hoarding it like dollars $. China defends her currency by selling dollars buying back 'external' yuan in the external market. Chinese yuan is not free floating unlike the US$. If we can export our inflation, that would be great. The only inflation you can see in a surplus economy like China is in real estates. I already explained to you the concept:

If an economy produces 1000kg of rice and the economy consumes 1000kg of rice, it is balanced. China is an economy producing 1400kg of rice while consuming 1000kg of rice. Printing money won't effect the inflation too much. However if China was producing 1000kg of rice and the consumption is 2000kg of rice, any increase in monetary supply will cause inflation.

Imagine printing RMB and you created some overnight millionaires, how much rice will he consume? He might eat another bowl? Might eat sharkfin? But the inflation on essential goods is minimal. The only thing he would spend more is buying properties or buying more expensive properties, thereby increasing the asset inflation. You need to remember people in China pay 40-50% downpayment and the banks are very rigid in giving out loans. Even if there are property bubbles or ghost towns, those are paid by hard cash. You also fail to understand, these properties only have at most 70 year leases, the prices CAN GO DOWN. China also have not added the property gain tax, inheritance tax, additional council fees, more than one unit tax, etc. All of these tools are used to demolish the so called 'wealth' accumulated by some people. Ultimately, the function of money to make people work 'productive', producing goods and services. Money is not the wealth, the goods and services produced while trying to get the 'money' is the real wealth. That's why I saw US is a casino economy, the manufacturing base is hollowed out, services are mainly paper pushing financial services. The real economy had already been decimated tremendously.

The 'value' of those companies depend on people buying their shares with printed dollars. Even a loss making Elon company can be worth billions$ if people buy the hype. Do you understand? It's all maya.