Geopolitics of GCC+ region

[King Solomon]

Mate imo you are going off topic. Your living standard mantra is simply that a mantra. by accident they are an oil rich nation. You can not use that logic to justify their rule.

I was trying to emphasize the difference between theory and practice... The theoretical model of democracy and if it applies to all cultures, traditions and situations (the practical side).

..........Maybe they would be richer if they didnt have one family stealing their resources of the nation and doing America/Israel's bidding...........

Maybe... maybe not? Maybe US would be a third world backward nation if not for Christopher Columbus... Maybe not? Our judgment should be based on present situations and conditions rather than "what if" scenarios.

As for "US bidding" I countered that here:

We must analyse this issue in the broader context.

Fact 1: GCC countries now have good relationship with USA.

What other option do they have?

Option 1: Cut relationship with US or deteriorate it.

Result of Option 1: Immediately ALL military contracts which are to be delivered in 2015-2020 of GCC would be invalid. GCC would be essentially defenseless against their enemies. Plus US Navy already has a big naval presence in Persian Gulf... would it tolerate GCC moving against US? Probably not. What will happen would be a covert CIA-orchestrated uprising in GCC nations. A full scale invasion of GCC by US navy is not out of the table either. Would we like to see GCC infrastructure and stability destroyed just because of their sudden desire to move away from US? No. Overall = Not feasible.

Option 2: Carry out Option 1, but with this increase cooperation with other Muslim countries

Result of Option 2: Effect of Option 1 + Gains would only be in the long term (20-25) years. It takes time to build an industrial base. The industrial revolution occurred in a period of over 100 years. What will happen in this period? Again, GCC would be defenseless which will make these countries very vulnerable to attack. Overall = Not feasible.

Option 3: Carry out option 1 + Build good relationship with Russia/China.

Result of Option 3: Effect of Option 1 + GCC oil exports would come to a halt if US stops importing oil.. Russia does not need Middle east oil as it already is in a huge surplus. China needs, but it already imports enough and the marginal amount would not be enough to tackle the loss of business GCC will suffer. This option would only benefit Russia as Russia will fill in the short term gap of US oil consumption. Overall loser would be GCC.

Overall Conclusion: You have to chose the best option among the options available to you. Something is better than nothing. And GCC nations are already faring much better than many other nations at present including pakistan. Please feel free to add any other options that I may have missed but according to my analysis, GCC is much better off at present status quo. I have to commend their policy makers for having foresight and chosen the best among possible alternatives for the betterment of their citizens.

 

[Zabaniyah]

Damn I envy those Qataris.

 

[lem34]

I was trying to emphasize the difference between theory and practice... The theoretical model of democracy and if it applies to all cultures, traditions and situations (the practical side).



Maybe... maybe not? Maybe US would be a third world backward nation if not for Christopher Columbus... Maybe not? Our judgment should be based on present situations and conditions rather than "what if" scenarios.

As for "US bidding" I countered that here:

Notwithstanding what you were attempting to do. We have a population of Bahrain that is protesting with people being killed, with outside external countries like Saudis supplying security. The very least the ruling family could do as it and its supporters claim that it is just a minority that is causing dissension backed by Iran is to provide a mechanism by which they can reassure their masses that not only are the actions taken out in their names in their benefit but their measures carry widespread support

 

[Mosamania]

Notwithstanding what you were attempting to do. We have a population of Bahrain that is protesting with people being killed, with outside external countries like Saudis supplying security. The very least the ruling family could do as it and its supporters claim that it is just a minority that is causing dissension backed by Iran is to provide a mechanism by which they can reassure their masses that not only are the actions taken out in their names in their benefit but their measures carry widespread support

The king of Bahrain invited UN investigators who investigated every little detail about the so called revolution. And they were extremely critical and totally unbiased. I would like to see Assad do that. Or your beloved Iran do that following the green revolution.

 

[King Solomon]

Notwithstanding what you were attempting to do. We have a population of Bahrain that is protesting with people being killed, with outside external countries like Saudis supplying security. The very least the ruling family could do as it and its supporters claim that it is just a minority that is causing dissension backed by Iran is to provide a mechanism by which they can reassure their masses that not only are the actions taken out in their names in their benefit but their measures carry widespread support

I already argued before why I think the revolution in Bahrain is not supported by the majority citizens... If it is not, is it not reasonable to assume an outside body (Iran) is backing them?

The way Bahrain's security apparatus handled the protests is far less violent compared to, say, Syria or Libya.

I would suggest you to read this article to get a gist of the reforms introduced in Bahrain towards democracy:

Bahrain - Constitutional Monarchy - Worldpress.org

It depends on how you see it. You will notice that Arab leaders only voice their opposition to Syria's regime due to the people who are being killed by Syria's army. Some people will consider them as freedom fighters some will consider them terrorists. Don't many people consider the Chechen insurgents (who are terrorists in our eyes and logically so) as freedom fighters? I have seen many people in the forum consider them freedom fighters. GCC leaders just have a different perspective. We cannot really blame them for this. Everybody is entitled to their view even if it may be different to what we think.

Please note that not once has GCC ever threatened to militarily intervene in Syria. GCC leaders do not have the "hunter-type" (aggressive) mentality which nations like US, Russia, China (even Iran) has. Their opposition is only limited to voice. They are far, far, FAR less aggressive. Example: Iran threatened military action against UAE whereas UAE only called for peaceful resolution of island issue.

About Bahrain.. if you compare Syrian economy with Bahrain, you will realize that it is not a genuine revolution. GDP/Capita and living standard is at least TEN times better in Bahrain compared to Syria. Average citizen in Bahrain can afford things which many in the west wouldn't be able to. Bahrain's leader did not massacre tens of thousands like the French backed Hafiz-al-Assad (father of Bashar al assad).

Tell me, if Pakistan's GDP/Capita was $40000 like Bahrain (on par with nations like Norway, Sweden), and suddenly a minority "rose up" against the government, would you support them? Majority would not! Why? Because people are immensely better off at present and these protesters would be no more than nuisance in their eyes. And remember, Bahrain army did not kill any group of protesters so far like Syrian army (that is again a different discussion).

Protests, anger occur if the government fails to provide for citizens. Thus, I do not see Bahrain revolution as a genuine one because the average citizen is already well provided - much better than many nations. Overall, I tend to agree that it may have occurred due to vested Iranian backing behind it.

 

[lem34]

The king of Bahrain invited UN investigators who investigated every little detail about the so called revolution. And they were extremely critical and totally unbiased. I would like to see Assad do that. Or your beloved Iran do that following the green revolution.

UN is a western tool on the whole what do you expect. If the King is so confident why not just hold a referendum

I already argued before why I think the revolution in Bahrain is not supported by the majority citizens...

The way Bahrain's security apparatus handled the protests is far less violent compared to, say, Syria or Libya.

I would suggest you to read this article to get a gist of the reforms introduced in Bahrain towards democracy:

Bahrain - Constitutional Monarchy - Worldpress.org

But why not let people vote. Its easy and would put an end to any doubt

 

[King Solomon]

UN is a western tool on the whole what do you expect. If the King is so confident why not just hold a referendum



But why not let people vote. Its easy and would put an end to any doubt

Referendum was already held. Bahrain model is now similar to UK's (considered the most democratic in Arabian peninsula): Bahrain - Constitutional Monarchy - Worldpress.org

About voting, I already stated my argument why the US democratic model may not be suitable for all nations/traditions.

 

[lem34]

But it is not an accident the wealth is distributed wisely. The average Bahraini drives BMWs and Mercedes Benz. The average Saudi can not afford a place to live. Just a comparison between the two based on observation. Yet we Saudis now believe that no one is stealing our Oil money anymore. Our oil money is being put into huge mega projects and social welfare the way it is supposed to be put in.

You can not pretend all is well when several people have died people are protesting and if you multiplied for example the 50 odd deaths in Bahrain by a factor to match Syria it would be much more

I admit I do not speak for Bahrain. I have suggested a fair mechanism you are the ones that appear against a referendum. Maybe the majority is against the King thats why they wont let people decide

 

[explorer9]

UN is a western tool on the whole what do you expect. If the King is so confident why not just hold a referendum



But why not let people vote. Its easy and would put an end to any doubt

if you know the history of that particular region especially the Bahrain then its only Shie Sunni struggle for influencing the greater middle east.

 

[lem34]

Referendum was already held. Bahrain model is now similar to UK's (considered the most democratic in Arabian peninsula): Bahrain - Constitutional Monarchy - Worldpress.org

About voting, I already stated my argument why the US democratic model may not be suitable for all nations/traditions.

This is not what I term representative govt:

Bahrain's prospects for democracy look bleak, as divisions deepen | World news | The Guardian


And the king, it seems likely, will continue to appoint the prime minister and rely on an unelected upper chamber of parliament to keep MPs in check and his own power untrammelled.

And there is no sign that the government will halt its controversial policy of "political naturalisation" of non-Bahraini Sunnis – imported from Syria, Jordan, Yemen and even Pakistan – to fill the ranks of the security forces (from which Shias are largely excluded) – to tip the demographic balance.

Census figures are not available but independent observers assume that Shias still make up at least 60% of Bahrain's native population. Sunnis dislike discussing this sensitive subject – and are not always consistent when they do.

 

[Mosamania]

You want to know why we reject democracy???? look at Iraq, Syria, Egypt, libya, Iran, Lebenon, Sudan, Tunis and Algeria. All of those are supposed to be "Republics" and look at their situation. On the other hand look at our situation.

Imagine a revolution in KSA harmed right now you know what will be the outcome?? Best case scenario you will have tribal representatives who are voted by their tribes so that certain tribe will rule the others and they will be even more theocratic than the current more modernizing and open government.

Worst case scenario is disunity and a hundred separatist movements happening in the same time and a grand civil war like no other before it in history. That not to mention KSA becoming the world's biggest proxy war zone in history between China Russia and USA fighting over who the oil will go to.

Right now there are reforms albight slow they are however very real and very existent. And in general the ruling regime in fear of a recolution meets almost everyone's demands. From women's rights to a hole in the street that needs fixing. So I ask again why do you want a revolution?? The very same day a government will come to power will be the very same day KSA goes to war with Iran so in a sense it is also best for Iran for the current government to remain.

Seriously I am asking again why do you want a revolution??

 

[Mosamania]

I personally believe anyone who is calling for a revolution in KSA is someone who is calling for it's destruction.

 

[lem34]

You want to know why we reject democracy???? look at Iraq, Syria, Egypt, libya, Iran, Lebenon, Sudan, Tunis and Algeria. All of those are supposed to be "Republics" and look at their situation. On the other hand look at our situation.

So if you know this why did you and your Kings back west against Libya or recently sat with Clinton and supporting democracy in Syria??

 

[kalu_miah]

When considering democratization and majority rule, one needs to consider viable size of a state or entity. Small states are never viable by themselves and are vulnerable to outside interference and manipulation. So for in the interest of stability and long term viability, it is better to consider the regional dimension. If we consider the entire GCC+ region, Sunni's will definitely be a majority, I think, we can count the population and see.

If Turkey joins GCC+ in a union, then sunni majority definitely becomes a certainty. For GCC+, if they can overcome the historical baggage issues, a closer relation with Turkey will always provide more stability and reduce influence of unwelcome outsiders.

Iran's future I believe is not with GCC+, although common shia religious ties will remain important. Please note that Qizilbash and Safavi's pretty much transplanted the shia faith in Iran, importing it from neighboring shia centers in present day Iraq, to reduce encroachment threats from Sunni Ottoman in the West and mostly Sunni Mughal in the East. Much more important for Iran and Pakistan for the moment, I believe, is to integrate with Eurasia+ region and explore that possibility.

Please note that Shah was getting closer to Soviet Union, suddenly we see an explosive "Islamic revolution" there, some allege outside powers were involved in this transition to contain Soviet influence expanding into Iran. Similar is the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Soviet influence increasing in Afghanistan and potentially spilling over into Pakistan was contained by exporting "Sunni extremism" to contain "godless communism".

Soviet Union was an incarnation of the Romanov Russian empire, which itself was a successor of Golden Horde khanate. Now Russian led Eurasian Union is no longer "godless". So I think the situation is ripe for the expansion for "Russian empire" towards warm water ports, for everyone's mutual benefit in the region. Others who feel bad about loosing out their chance to exploit using divide and rule, can be excluded from future possibilities, whereas those that are open minded enough to wish well for the common people of the region, should be welcome to share in the win-win benefit of regional integration.

 

[lem34]

. So I ask again why do you want a revolution?? The very same day a government will come to power will be the very same day KSA goes to war with Iran so in a sense it is also best for Iran for the current government to remain.

Seriously I am asking again why do you want a revolution??

I want revolution because I think Sauds are tools of American policy. Their people want is a matter for them. Their actions are a little too much in line with Israeli wishes for my liking