Geopolitics of ASEAN+ region

[East Asia United]

I will summarize both of my theories, as they are related:

1. Theory of Historical Continuity: Human societies or civilizations when they reach a certain size constantly adapt and reinvent themselves, due to internal reorganization and external influence. The longer a society is left intact without too much external interference, the more they can achieve a high degree of internal cohesion and as a result are able to adapt to changing circumstances more quickly and efficiently, as compared to a society that has been the victim of external aggression and forced transformation. In other words, relatively untouched societies retain some competitive edge over societies that were victims of invasion and brutal subjugation.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...ld-order-road-map-future-8.html#ixzz2XL73Rpaz

2. Theory of Large Systems: A larger human social entity usually will win when in competition with a smaller one, provided that they have similar level of integration and homogeneous population (derived from their Historical Continuity) and equal mastery of science and technology.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...ld-order-road-map-future-8.html#ixzz2XL7WbSYj

A 3rd theory is possible about genetic potential of groups of people such as families, clans and nations, as one of the factors, like the above two, that determines competitive edge of nations, which you have embarked upon in a thread now with discussions about the relationship between IQ and genes. I briefly referred to the same study that you posted in OP of that thread with a more recent version. But I kind of avoid this subject, because belief's about genetic potential can be used by people to accuse someone of scientific racism:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_racism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_intelligence

It can destroy career, because it goes against the established politically correct set of scientific beliefs prevailing in the Western countries.
An ongoing example:
Wal-Mart drops Paula Deen after she tearfully says: Kill me if you’ve never committed a sin - The Washington Post

So it is a kind of "Taboo" subject. But I am well aware that many people in East Asia, specially South Korea, Japan and China (Taiwan, Singapore and more recently mainland) have a natural tendency to have strong inclinations towards this 3rd theory and to justify their success using this theory. I guess the proof will only become apparent when we see East Asia, specially China reigning supreme as the top super power of the world, hopefully in a few decades.

So, if the 3rd theory becomes finally established, regardless of the taboo of political correctedness associated with it, then we may see a rush of eugenic projects where people from other nations will either be interested in marriage with the more intelligent high IQ nations to gain that "superior" genetic material, starting with the elite, or introduce the "superior" genes in their population through donor sperms or eggs, or just create designer genes with the relevant "IQ" or other parts added from the "desirable" population. So genetic makeup of nations can be changed and I believe will be changed at will, once it is known that it creates competitive edge. Another related interesting idea to look at:
Heterosis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This however, still will not serve to diminish or negate the importance of theories 1 and 2, in my opinion. On the contrary, the 3rd theory can be used to organize neighbor and regional nations in a regional union, so that there can be natural hierarchy and division of labor among the different nations of a particular regional union. As an example, a unified Korea and Japan can together be in the leading position of ASEAN+, if it ever takes shape, which is relevant to the subject of this thread.

I do not think East Asian Union (Japan + Korea + China) is possible, since Japan and Korea would avoid being dominated by a much larger China with the potential risk of getting absorbed and assimilated in China. Every nation treasures its own cultural continuity for their own survival as pointed out in theory 1.

1: I think that Embryo selection is close to commercialization. This will be the future, and gene therapy afterwards (and maybe even cybernetic enhancements after that)

2: I think a European-Union like East Asian Union is possible, if it had immigration restrictions and each country was able to develop it's own culture and language. Therefore, it would be an economic union, with a common military and foreign policy, in addition to common identity on the regional level (though each people will retain their own culture and lifestyle).

This is possible, but the large animosity between countries (especially Japan and China) dilutes the possibility of this happening any time soon.

East Asia's greatest weakness is the hatred between each others peoples. The Chinese rabbit guy on this forum is an example of this.

 

[kalu_miah]

Actually, Hindustan is a nonissue, since they themselves are a US lapdog.

The problem is that a US base will not be acceptable to Bangladeshis (talking about 160 million Bangladeshis+ most of 9 million overseas expatriates), not some Bangladeshis living in Western countries and toeing the Western line to appease them.

Also, kalu_bhai, another request, do not ever use Wikipedia. You only ruin your reputation by using Wikipedia. It's meant for low IQ beings that consume no iodized salt as a source or reference.

Otherwise, even though there are major disagreements with you on some points (e.g. your pandering to Westerners - probably because you live in the West, and so you are probably afraid of their governments snooping on you, and picking you up some night), I think, compared to the low IQ non-iodized salt consuming population from the world's worst humanitarian crises afflicted fake "country', your posts are very insightful.

Keep going kalu_bhai. Try to bear some of my advice in mind, if possible. The choice is ultimately yours.

I guess Hindustan has a lot of dreams, put poor economic performance so far has and will force them to be a pawn for the West for the time being.

Of course Bangladeshi's may object to a US base, I mentioned that in my first response to @aazidane 's post on this issue:

I think a US base will not happen because neither the US or Bangladesh is interested to have it, as there is no significant benefit to either parties.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/newreply.php?do=postreply&t=180755#ixzz2XRBe7GtH

I do not think any media manipulation will be able to overcome this objection, just like transit for India under the guise of Asian highway/railway is a non-starter for Bangladeshi voting public.

Thanks for your kind words. About my pandering to West, I have soft corners for them, because I grew up here after finishing high school, so I think I understand their strengths and weaknesses much more than people who have not been here long enough or had enough power of perception to understand them well. So it is a sense of gratitude coupled with a sense of understanding that affects my point of view. Hopefully it does not cloud my judgement too much.

As for being afraid of the National Security state, I had a feeling about this long back about what NSA could be up to, so I try not to do or say anything that can be used against me. All of us should be doing that, if we want to bring some real change.

Diet and nutrition has a lot of effect on performance and competitive edge. Iodized salt is just one example, but not sure what nation is not taking iodized salt. Too much fried food with heated oil will continue to affect Chinese and Japanese performance, which is pretty much absent in Korean food for example. People who eat too much wheat will be affected by Gluten in it, people who eat too much meat, cheese and animal products will have less longevity and less clear thinking patterns and people who rarely eat meat or fish, will probably continue to have underdeveloped brains that will affect their performance and competitive edge. So diet and nutrition and environmental intake could be added as the 4th factor, after Continuity, Large System and genetics, that is important for competitive edge.

I use wikipedia as a quick reference tool. Wikipedia articles do have original sources, which I can quote in the future to avoid negative bias against wiki.

 

[Banglar Lathial]

Lack of iodized salt consumption is THE largest, most common cause of preventable brain damage in the world.

WHO | Iodization of salt

Iodine deficiency is the main cause of preventable brain damage and reduced IQ in children worldwide

Hindustan has the world's highest number of braindamaged people (as measured by nonconsumption of iodized salt).

The value for Bangladesh in 2006 was 84%.

For China, the related figure was 93%, I think.

For Hindustan, the world's most braindamaged and poor country, the percentage was only 51% in 2010, I think.



Your love for the West is your own choice, I won't interfere with it. But, let us not try to impose this 'love of the West' on 160 m+ Bangladeshis for no good reason. Bangladesh should maintain neutral to warm relations with the west, nothing more or less.

And, as you have said, there are great risks associated with living in the West. So I understand why all the expatriates in the Western world may toe the Western line, they have no choice.

 

[kalu_miah]

1: I think that Embryo selection is close to commercialization. This will be the future, and gene therapy afterwards (and maybe even cybernetic enhancements after that)

2: I think a European-Union like East Asian Union is possible, if it had immigration restrictions and each country was able to develop it's own culture and language. Therefore, it would be an economic union, with a common military and foreign policy, in addition to common identity on the regional level (though each people will retain their own culture and lifestyle).

This is possible, but the large animosity between countries (especially Japan and China) dilutes the possibility of this happening any time soon.

East Asia's greatest weakness is the hatred between each others peoples. The Chinese rabbit guy on this forum is an example of this.

1: agreed

2: Hatred and conflict is kind of natural for neighbors sharing borders, as you are looking at competing groups in a standoff or stand still, who are fighting for resources in the same domain. The trick is to manage these feelings for constructive ends, which is what I propose in ASEAN+ scheme.

China wants to eat up Korea and Japan borg style, because these entities have desirable genetic material, but it does not want to absorb South East Asia, because of less desirable or even undesirable genetic material. But Japan and Korea do not want to get eaten up and end their existence as cultures, so they have to use outside balancers to balance this threat. Currently the US/West is the offshore balancer. What I propose is that a developed South East Asia could become a much more viable balancer closer to home than far away West. And South East Asia is not close enough to Japan or Korea, so there is no risk of demographic invasion either as ASEAN+ union will have migration control.

If you are familiar with labor situation in Korea, there are tens of thousands of migrant labor working in Korea as guest workers, some marry Korean ladies and become citizens. I have heard there are at least 10,000 Korean citizen of Pakistan origin, around equal number of Bangladesh origin and there are significant numbers from Philippines, Vietnam and other ASEAN countries. An ASEAN+ will negate the need for these large labor migrations destabilizing the harmony of homogeneous societies in Japan and Korea, by making it much easier to have factories in less developed ASEAN+ countries by reducing the barrier to entry. Essentially in an ASEAN+, the less developed South East Asia region could be jointly managed by Korea and Japan, effectively making them de facto colonial masters, while they work to utilize and develop the human resources in these economies. China would be economically involved as well, integrating all of ASEAN+ with its own economy, but defense, security and foreign policy wise, ASEAN+ will have a common platform to reduce any bullying from any neighbor powers.

 

[kalu_miah]

Lack of iodized salt consumption is THE largest, most common cause of preventable brain damage in the world.

WHO | Iodization of salt





Hindustan has the world's highest number of braindamaged people (as measured by nonconsumption of iodized salt).

The value for Bangladesh in 2006 was 84%.

For China, the related figure was 93%, I think.

For Hindustan, the world's most braindamaged and poor country, the percentage was only 51% in 2010, I think.



Your love for the West is your own choice, I won't interfere with it. But, let us not try to impose this 'love of the West' on 160 m+ Bangladeshis for no good reason. Bangladesh should maintain neutral to warm relations with the west, nothing more or less.

And, as you have said, there are great risks associated with living in the West. So I understand why all the expatriates in the Western world may toe the Western line, they have no choice.

I think "love" is too strong a word, as I said I think I understand them better than others.

We live in a globalized world and like it or not we are dependent on the West in countless ways, just like most countries in the world. Even China, the closest peer competitor to the West is still dependent on the West. And the Chinese for example would never pick a fight with the West, till they are at least 2-3 times more powerful than the West. So it is a question of respecting power and not getting into foolish confrontations that cannot be won.

 

[Banglar Lathial]

I think "love" is too strong a word, as I said I think I understand them better than others.

We live in a globalized world and like it or not we are dependent on the West in countless ways, just like most countries in the world. Even China, the closest peer competitor to the West is still dependent on the West. And the Chinese for example would never pick a fight with the West, till they are at least 2-3 times more powerful than the West. So it is a question of respecting power and not getting into foolish confrontations that cannot be won.

Bro, I understand our eternal enemies (urine drinkers) or pesky nuisance like some tree dwellers. But, I would never try to paint them as our allies. Even if you understand the Westerners well (I don't doubt that, and I know their general mindset quite well too), we should never count them as our allies. Maybe, neutral trade partners, not enemies but not allies either.

China is not the closest peer competitor to the West in many ways, most importantly, it has no unique political message, cultural export, weapons design or development, or development of political, geostrategic or military doctrine.

Most of them are reliant on the West, because China has mostly copied the Soviet Union, once Soviet Union split up, they chose to copy the West to the letter.


And, the West has attacked Islam and Muslims, not vice versa. China does not face such a threat from the West. Have you ever considered how much "heart burn" the Chinese all around experience whenever a single mention of Japanese or Russian actions of the past comes up? That's because it's these two countries/peoples that beat the Chinese like no other in "modern times" (last couple of centuries).

Whereas, the Chinese beat back the Americans (with Soviet nuclear umbrella) in North Korea, the Chinese beat the Hindustanis to pulp in 1962, the Chinese also chased out pro-Western KMT from mainland.

------------


Now, I am not saying that Bangladesh alone should challenge the West, I am saying that Bangladesh should think independently and chart its own course.

For example, why on Earth is it that 80% of Bangladesh's exports go to the West? Why not export to the GCC, Africa, Arab world, ASEAN, China, Japan, Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and so on to reduce export reliance on the West?

--------



Another angle to look at the issue from is that the Chinese/East Asians have only one bloc "above them" in aggregate power (i.e. Western block), as a first estimate.

That's not the case for Bangladesh. We have plenty of blocs above us in aggregate power. So long as we are not extremely loud and provocative (and don't directly become a thorn on the West's side), we must further our relationships with Russia, China, France, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Iran, North Korea, South Africa, Brazil, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Maldives and Brunei.

 

[Banglar Lathial]

Essentially in an ASEAN+, the less developed South East Asia region could be jointly managed by Korea and Japan, effectively making them de facto colonial masters, while they work to utilize and develop the human resources in these economies. China would be economically involved as well, integrating all of ASEAN+ with its own economy, but defense, security and foreign policy wise, ASEAN+ will have a common platform to reduce any bullying from any neighbor powers.

Bro, my sincere apologies if you find this too intrusive, but let's look at some facts.

Japan had been the 2nd largest economy in world until China surpassed them only a few years ago.

Indonesia ministers today expect their GDP to be sixth/seventh highest in two decades time. They are unlikely to accept a subordinate position to Korea (which Indonesia is likely to surpass in another 3 to 5 years, at most).

"In the coming 20 years, Indonesia will become the world`s seventh or sixth economy," the minister said.(*)

Another factor, South Korea is largely reliant on foreigners for most of their civilian technology. If the West sanctions South Korea today, it would not be able to lead ASEAN anywhere in any field.

Japan is a different case, but they are a dying nation (like Russia), or a dying economy (like USA).


If you know anything about Japanese mindsets, they would not even accept Chinese as equals, let alone consider Koreans as equals. Do you think - apart from discussions exclusively with Koreans - anywhere else in real life that the Japanese nation will share the same podium on the same pedestal with the Koreans?

Greater chance that Japan will accept leadership of ASEAN alone until Indonesia is strong enough to challenge it, than there is any chance of South Korea being accepted as an equal by the Japanese or Chinese. The East Asians are somewhat racist at a national level, but they are better organized, more feminine, a little cowardly in front of authorities/authority figures, but somewhat higher IQ people on average.



----------


This is not unique to East Asia either.

Russia will not accept a subordinate position to China, or the USA - that's why Putin "trolls at an international level" by surfacing Russian nuclear submarines near Cuba, or sending nuclear bombers to North America, or Europe, or trolling Sweden by sending some fighter jets (not mentioning "trolling" Japan by fighter intrusions into Japanese airspace).



Edit:

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2012/11/06/report-second-russian-nuclear-submarine-off-u-s-coast-in-three-months-spotted-during-sandy/


This is just one example which shows why China is far (many decades) away from being a superpower (though they will likely surpass American GDP soon - in next 4 or 5 years).

China looks like an isolated and bigger North Korea when all of its East Asian neighbours like Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and so on kick up a fuss over some minor islands, yet nobody in the world supports it. Their diplomatic skills have not yet matured to the Russian level, which is at least a few decades behind the Anglo American mastery of multi layered diplomacy.

Can China "troll" America or Europe in their backyard? Not yet, because they have not yet developed the capability to think independently.

They are still reliant on sending students to America. No superpower is reliant on sending students for education to its rival.

 

[IndoCarib]

Lack of iodized salt consumption is THE largest, most common cause of preventable brain damage in the world.

WHO | Iodization of salt





Hindustan has the world's highest number of braindamaged people (as measured by nonconsumption of iodized salt).

The value for Bangladesh in 2006 was 84%.

For China, the related figure was 93%, I think.

For Hindustan, the world's most braindamaged and poor country, the percentage was only 51% in 2010, I think.



Your love for the West is your own choice, I won't interfere with it. But, let us not try to impose this 'love of the West' on 160 m+ Bangladeshis for no good reason. Bangladesh should maintain neutral to warm relations with the west, nothing more or less.

And, as you have said, there are great risks associated with living in the West. So I understand why all the expatriates in the Western world may toe the Western line, they have no choice.

You must be the dumbest person on the planet. Eating loads if 'iodidized salt hasn't helped you a bit.

 

[Banglar Lathial]

You must be the dumbest person on the planet. Eating loads if 'iodidized salt hasn't helped you a bit.

Post reported for personal insult. Do you think I can not call you a dumb Hindu worshipping Shiv Lingam and eating cow dung?

I would rather report your post, and use facts to prove you lot false.

You join my ignore list too.

 

[kalu_miah]

Bro, I understand our eternal enemies (urine drinkers) or pesky nuisance like some tree dwellers. But, I would never try to paint them as our allies. Even if you understand the Westerners well (I don't doubt that, and I know their general mindset quite well too), we should never count them as our allies. Maybe, neutral trade partners, not enemies but not allies either.

China is not the closest peer competitor to the West in many ways, most importantly, it has no unique political message, cultural export, weapons design or development, or development of political, geostrategic or military doctrine.

Most of them are reliant on the West, because China has mostly copied the Soviet Union, once Soviet Union split up, they chose to copy the West to the letter.

And, the West has attacked Islam and Muslims, not vice versa. China does not face such a threat from the West. Have you ever considered how much "heart burn" the Chinese all around experience whenever a single mention of Japanese or Russian actions of the past comes up? That's because it's these two countries/peoples that beat the Chinese like no other in "modern times" (last couple of centuries).

Whereas, the Chinese beat back the Americans (with Soviet nuclear umbrella) in North Korea, the Chinese beat the Hindustanis to pulp in 1962, the Chinese also chased out pro-Western KMT from mainland.

------------

Now, I am not saying that Bangladesh alone should challenge the West, I am saying that Bangladesh should think independently and chart its own course.

For example, why on Earth is it that 80% of Bangladesh's exports go to the West? Why not export to the GCC, Africa, Arab world, ASEAN, China, Japan, Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and so on to reduce export reliance on the West?

--------

Another angle to look at the issue from is that the Chinese/East Asians have only one bloc "above them" in aggregate power (i.e. Western block), as a first estimate.

That's not the case for Bangladesh. We have plenty of blocs above us in aggregate power. So long as we are not extremely loud and provocative (and don't directly become a thorn on the West's side), we must further our relationships with Russia, China, France, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Iran, North Korea, South Africa, Brazil, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Maldives and Brunei.

I think the Urine Drinkers and tree dwellers themselves in this forum can testify how much I consider them allies. Not sure where you got that.

I do not recommend that Bangladesh should consider the West as their allies, in fact I agree that we should reduce our dependence on them for trade, it will not happen overnight, but eventually it can be done.

China is still weak on soft power, but I think you under estimate their potential in terms of hard power. Japan and Korea copied too, so did the US from Europe. Everyone copies when they start out. Investment and results from R&D comes much later, when you have developed human resources and the money to spend.

West has been essentially managing the globe and interfering all over the planet for 500 years, it is nothing new. They not only interfered in Muslim countries, but they did it to the whole planet, including the Chinese. It is the nature of geopolitics, there was power vacuum after Mongol invasions affected Muslim world and the Chinese, the West filled it as a natural consequence. The humiliation China faced with Russia and Japan, both happened in its past weaker phases of history. Those will not be repeated, what is coming now is that both Japan and Russia will become willing allies of China, essentially junior lackeys managing Eurasia+ and ASEAN+, on behalf of China, according to my prediction.

I agree that Bangladesh has to chart an "independent" course. Here is what I recommend for Bangladesh:

- as a South Asian Muslim nation, we have two main anchors of loyalties 1) to our neighbors to the East in South East Asia in ASEAN+ region (excluding the tree dwellers for the time being) 2) To Muslim nations of the world in Eurasia+ and in Africa-GCC+
- China as a direct neighbor to ASEAN+ and Eurasia+ region, naturally we should ally with China, the coming super power, with the potential to defeat the West
- both the West, India or the America's should be the last of our priority countries, as we either share no geographic closeness or shared cultural or religious values

Details of Eurasia+ and Africa-GCC+ is here:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180767-geopolitics-eurasia-region.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180771-geopolitics-gcc-region-7.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180774-geopolitics-african-union.html

 

[IndoCarib]

Post reported for personal insult. Do you think I can not call you a dumb Hindu worshipping Shiv Lingam and eating cow dung?

I would rather report your post, and use facts to prove you lot false.

You join my ignore list too.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SN.ITK.SALT.ZS

here , get enlightened. without having to eat more iodized salt

 

[kalu_miah]

Bro, my sincere apologies if you find this too intrusive, but let's look at some facts.

Japan had been the 2nd largest economy in world until China surpassed them only a few years ago.

Indonesia ministers today expect their GDP to be sixth/seventh highest in two decades time. They are unlikely to accept a subordinate position to Korea (which Indonesia is likely to surpass in another 3 to 5 years, at most).

Another factor, South Korea is largely reliant on foreigners for most of their civilian technology. If the West sanctions South Korea today, it would not be able to lead ASEAN anywhere in any field.

Japan is a different case, but they are a dying nation (like Russia), or a dying economy (like USA).

If you know anything about Japanese mindsets, they would not even accept Chinese as equals, let alone consider Koreans as equals. Do you think - apart from discussions exclusively with Koreans - anywhere else in real life that the Japanese nation will share the same podium on the same pedestal with the Koreans?

Greater chance that Japan will accept leadership of ASEAN alone until Indonesia is strong enough to challenge it, than there is any chance of South Korea being accepted as an equal by the Japanese or Chinese. The East Asians are somewhat racist at a national level, but they are better organized, more feminine, a little cowardly in front of authorities/authority figures, but somewhat higher IQ people on average.

----------

This is not unique to East Asia either.

Russia will not accept a subordinate position to China, or the USA - that's why Putin "trolls at an international level" by surfacing Russian nuclear submarines near Cuba, or sending nuclear bombers to North America, or Europe, or trolling Sweden by sending some fighter jets (not mentioning "trolling" Japan by fighter intrusions into Japanese airspace).

Edit:

Report: Second Russian Nuclear Submarine Off U.S. Coast in Three Months Spotted During Sandy | TheBlaze.com

This is just one example which shows why China is far (many decades) away from being a superpower (though they will likely surpass American GDP soon - in next 4 or 5 years).

China looks like an isolated and bigger North Korea when all of its East Asian neighbours like Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and so on kick up a fuss over some minor islands, yet nobody in the world supports it. Their diplomatic skills have not yet matured to the Russian level, which is at least a few decades behind the Anglo American mastery of multi layered diplomacy.

Can China "troll" America or Europe in their backyard? Not yet, because they have not yet developed the capability to think independently.

They are still reliant on sending students to America. No superpower is reliant on sending students for education to its rival.

National ego based on past accomplishments should not get in the way of future security paradigms. The world is changing, rather going back to the past status quo that existed before the past 500 years of brief global interregnum led by the West. People will adjust to this changing reality and act accordingly based on their pragmatic national interest.

Japan will not want to accept 2nd fiddle position to China, that is why I am betting that they will go for this ASEAN+ project. But so far they seem completely asleep, basking in the glory of US nuke umbrella.

Indonesia as the largest nation in ASEAN+ will have its glory days in the future, when it has a more developed population, but for now, they must accept Japanese and Korean leadership.

Korea is essentially a smaller version of Japan. It has great potentials due to even superior genetic traits and better food habits than Japanese. Once upon a time, the Yamato Wa was a junior brother to Baekche, one of the 3 kingdoms in Korea, 1400 years back. I think I know Korea well enough to say that it is a smaller and less aggressive and less racist version of Japan. It also shares proto-Turkic, Mongolic, Altaic blood unlike the Japanese, which is common among large number of Muslim elites in many Eurasian countries. The Altaic blood in Japanese royal and aristocratic families mostly were migrants from ancient Korean 3 kingdoms.

 

[Azizam]

South Asia is the least integrated region economically and the second poorest region in the world. Something desperately have to be done. Instead, we are fighting each other for the slightest difference. India as the largest economy in South Asia should carry out a responsible role for the stability and economic development of South Asia.

 

[Banglar Lathial]

I think the Urine Drinkers and tree dwellers themselves in this forum can testify how much I consider them allies. Not sure where you got that.

I never said that you think those Urine drinkers or tree dwellers are our allies. I merely mentioned that, those are our enemies, and I understand their mindsets. Just because I know how their minds work, does not mean I try to paint them as our allies.

Similarly, we can study and understand how Western minds work, but we should not consider them allies nor enemies. Just neutral trading partners.

I do not recommend that Bangladesh should consider the West as their allies, in fact I agree that we should reduce our dependence on them for trade, it will not happen overnight, but eventually it can be done.

China is still weak on soft power, but I think you under estimate their potential in terms of hard power. Japan and Korea copied too, so did the US from Europe. Everyone copies when they start out. Investment and results from R&D comes much later, when you have developed human resources and the money to spend.

I don't disagree much here, except, that, the Japanese at least did not quite copy as much as the Chinese.

Who did the Japanese copy when they sent their first satellites in 1970 before China? Soviet Union, France of America?

The Japanese were prepared to develop their indigenous (fourth generation) fighter jet FS-X, but Americans interfered, and stopped that programme, and asked the Japanese to pursue the F-2 programme (a modified, more capable and superior F-16, if you like).

The Japanese built the 'heaviest' surface warship in history (Yamato) displacing more than 70,000 tonnes. Since nobody built an equal or superior version at that time, who did the Japanese copy?

Whereas, the Chinese still need to send huge numbers of students to their rival America, the Japanese have scaled that number down, in the same way that the numbers were low for Russia or France for most of the last few decades.

West has been essentially managing the globe and interfering all over the planet for 500 years, it is nothing new.

This is a bit of an exaggeration. Even in Bangladesh, we had Siraj Ud Daula as late as 1757, so that 500 years figure is a stretch.

They not only interfered in Muslim countries, but they did it to the whole planet, including the Chinese. It is the nature of geopolitics, there was power vacuum after Mongol invasions affected Muslim world and the Chinese, the West filled it as a natural consequence. The humiliation China faced with Russia and Japan, both happened in its past weaker phases of history. Those will not be repeated, what is coming now is that both Japan and Russia will become willing allies of China, essentially junior lackeys managing Eurasia+ and ASEAN+, on behalf of China, according to my prediction.

That we can agree or disagree with, but that's a different issue.

My point was, that any mention of Japan or Russian capability gives many Chinese severe "heart burns". Why is that? Because of their "historical relations" (or the way they were humiliated). America and the West started this war against Islam, so there is no reason to think they are our allies. America is not starting a war against China, that's why the Chinese don't get quite as worked up.

So, we should go for closer friendships with Japan and Russia than the Chinese because we have not suffered anything/as much from these countries, but the Chinese have, and likewise, we should scale down relations with the West, because the West is the evil (for us), but not so much for the Chinese.

I agree that Bangladesh has to chart an "independent" course. Here is what I recommend for Bangladesh:

- as a South Asian Muslim nation, we have two main anchors of loyalties 1) to our neighbors to the East in South East Asia in ASEAN+ region (excluding the tree dwellers for the time being) 2) To Muslim nations of the world in Eurasia+ and in Africa-GCC+
- China as a direct neighbor to ASEAN+ and Eurasia+ region, naturally we should ally with China, the coming super power, with the potential to defeat the West
- both the West, India or the America's should be the last of our priority countries, as we either share no geographic closeness or shared cultural or religious values

Details of Eurasia+ and Africa-GCC+ is here:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180767-geopolitics-eurasia-region.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180771-geopolitics-gcc-region-7.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180774-geopolitics-african-union.html

No major disagreements.


We also need to be flexible and responsive to changes in environment, and geopolitical balance of power.

Any opening we find must be exploited.

We do not need to antagonize the West openly now, but no need to treat them as our allies. Slowly, we should change our pattern of trade, migration, destinations for higher education and whatever else "soft power" methods the West uses to control the masses.

Last but not the least, due to China's poor and undeveloped political and diplomatic skills (far behind Russia, which is at least two decades behind Anglo Americans in its development process), we can not rely much on China. They may sell Bangladesh off, after all, they are Kafir as well. They are such simpletons, at the official level, that they believe in the Western created dichotomy of "moderate" vs "extremist" Muslims, and any Muslim who is seen as "way too Orthodox" or "religious" will be considered an "extremist" in their view.

They are also way too backward when it comes to developing any indigenous doctrines, can you believe it, they STILL (to this day) rely on sending hordes of students to America for education.

This is far from being a superpower. Even some of the most "mature" Chinese minds in defence forum happen to young lads in their 20s studying in some American universities.

Don't expect any miracle from China.

In fact, I predict a sharp tapering off Chinese growth in the coming decade (not in the next one or two years, but next decade) for the simple reason that they can not innovate. They do not even have the courage to question "authority", whether in China or outside.

For the Chinese government, the issue is the same. They see the West as "the authority', and do not want to question it no matter how obviously wrong the West may be (even if the West is against China, they can hardly voice their justified concerns appropriately - and no, writing a few editorials in their state controlled newspapers do nothing to address this concern). Their diplomatic corps is so poor, they congratulated BAL soon after 2009 fraudulent elections, they worked with Pakistan's "Zardari government" (installed by Americans), and now they find nobody supporting them on SCS or disputes with neighbours.

 

[kalu_miah]

South Asia is the least integrated region economically and the second poorest region in the world. Something desperately have to be done. Instead, we are fighting each other for the slightest difference. India as the largest economy in South Asia should carry out a responsible role for the stability and economic development of South Asia.

Bro, I recommend both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to go for joining ASEAN instead and build a shared future in ASEAN+, please read the OP. India will be a drag for any country that gets entangled with it. Sri Lanka more than anyone else should know this from recent experience.