Le Pen winning is moderately unlikely. It should be highly unlikely
if the Front Républicain was acted upon but signs point to this not
happening this time which is a mistake or error case by case.
I understand that Mélanchon is positioning himself for the future,
as near of one as the législatives, but it shows another puppet
master wannabe playing a life long combat of fascism against a
position from which to rise.
He's all he claims to hate as politicians go!
I won't be surprised if he waivers and recommends abstention ...
as many on the left and right have done already. Is there a Front
Républicain or only a Front National? This isn't 2002 or so it seems.
If no impassioned voice rises from the civil society, more than a third
of voters from all over the spectrum will stay home/cast a white vote.
That leaves just few enough that once Macron's first round 25% is
subtracted ( 65 - 25 = 40 ), there is space for Marine to double her
score ( that's the unlikely part ) and accede to power. So En Marche
needs only three-fourths its initial success to win ...
... but in my opinion France needs much more than that to win also.
The dream for Macron and those that reject fascism is that her score
be as low as possible, as close to her father's as possible, -25% ...
that objective should be clearly stated and repeated by all good men.
Then when the législatives come, the fight will revert to parties and
I'll predict that both the FN and FI will make major gains as there is
another 25% of votes to grab since the demise of the socialist party.
The resulting assembly will make governing almost impossible for the
FN and difficult at best for Macron's loose assemblage.
Holding my breath 'til autumn, Tay.
P.S. @ La Se K : We voted on Saturday!