OK, lets get down to business boys.
1)Egypt will not wave its colonial rights to the share of the Nile waters, With an ever growing population and a spiraling energy crisis Egypt needs the majority share of the water.
2)Egypt may tolerate an Ethiopian hydro dam but only if its colonial share is maintained. If the share is guaranteed (properly not just with words) there wont be hostility, (much) if its not then Ethiopia as a nation is in trouble.
3) As this is a defence forum lets get down to the nitty gritty: a) Egypt will not simply bomb a dam and leave. Egypt will actively bomb every vital piece of Ethiopian infrastructure possible and make sure Ethiopia is militarily handicapped by reducing its air force to nothing while its still on the ground.
b)How you ask. Well the renaissance dam is 3,551Km of
road miles away from the center of Cairo. This means two things.
3)B)I) 1. That the Egyptian air force is definitely capable of launching a mission into Ethiopia from southern Egypt let alone from Sudan.
3)B)II) Egyptian fighters will need to refuel either on route or back towards Egypt (if they aren't carrying drop tanks). This may involve landing in Sudan or much more likely Saudi air tankers off the coast of Eritrea.
3)B)III)Some may now be wondering how Egypt will deal with the Ethiopian air force. The only real threat to Egyptian fighters would be the SU-27, the SU-23 (if its still running is obsolete) has no chance with an F-16 or a Mirage-2000. Now I challenge members to find me footage of more than 3 of these babies flying together. The Ethiopian military has no EW systems, no AWACS and no experience in air to air engagement whatsoever it also has no AWACS. Egyptian F-16s and Mirage-2000 fighters will have support from an EC-130H and a E-2 Hawkeye if required. Support will also come from Cairo as we have spy satellites with a resolution of 1m (not the best but hey its what we got). Now assuming that Ethiopia can maintain it SU-27 of which it has 18 (presuming they all fly out of the same base), Egypt wont seek a direct confrontation but do what the Israelis did to us in 67.
4) Ethiopia has old and obsolete air defence systems. F-16s tasked with SEAD armed with AGM-88 will slice through them like a knife through butter.
5) Some ask of American interference. I reply with: The Americans will not interfere with Egyptian national security issues just as Egypt doesn't interfere with American security matters in the region. Even if they do interfere Egypt will carry on (just ask the Chinese officials who took a trip to Egyptian F-16 bases
).
6) To the Ethiopian gentleman who thinks that events from over 100 years ago is in any way relevant or in any way shows some sort of Ethiopian supremacy, who are you trying to fool? because it looks like youre trying to convince yourself. This wont be an invasion nor will there be any ground troops (except special forces).
Any questions lads.