Egypt shows interest in JF-17 Thunder

[Naif al Hilali]

My only comment looking at the inventory of Egypt AF is that it is multisourced and very varied. It can potwntially be a maintenance nightmare. What are your thoughts.
A

Bismillah ir Rahman ar Raheem

Yo have to look at it in the light of their history; short-changed delivery of some neutered weapon systems from their one ally in past wars and the ensuing distrust of weapons suppliers in general (notwithstanding the sourcing and stocking of complete arsenals from the US in the post-Camp David Saadat and Mubarak eras - the coffers and force inventories were pretty depleted at the beginning of that decade-and-a-half era and they wanted to appease their new masters; the huge amount of US aid money and local assembly was salivating but ended up making them mostly dependent on a single source once again).

Sissi in particular is extremely paranoid and very wary of the US, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. He would practically sell the country to buy exorbitantly-priced French arms (even in extremely limited numbers) so that he may have something operational in the air, on the ground, (and now on the seas) to combat whomever will try to topple him both from within and without.

The Saudis have traditionally bought a lot of junk - French AMX tanks, British Lightning and Tornado ADV interceptors, etc. - so that they might have something, hopefully half their inventory available, in case they need to go to a war not sanctioned by their US overlords. If they could, they would expand beyond US and Great Britain to include more French and Italian arms in their purchases (Switzerland, Sweden ,and Germany are currently becoming no-gos for them; Spain seems OK; the Russian almost-romance did not quite take).

The current Saudi defense minister, the King's son, is actually more encouraging in what he seems to want to do so far - source and invest in technology acquisition and local manufacture. The scrapping of the over-priced and useless US Littoral Combat Ships was a promising first step. Their self-reliance mantra seem to be encouraging Qatar and the UAE along the same path also.

Looking at things from the perspective of disciplined forces such as the Turkish and Pakistani armed forces who meticulously maintain their inventory and tend to want to reduce their logistics footprint and superfluous equipment support requirements so that they can actually fight a war without getting hobbled by a disparate and varied inventory on the very first day, the Arab way looks strange to us. But it seems normal to them from their excessive paranoia (justified often), lack of manpower and training, and shoddy (and until now foreign dependent) maintenance policies.

 

[MastanKhan]

More Rafales and MiG-35s are on the table as of now in addition to upgrades to the -16s. The JF-17 simply can't compete with that.

Hi,

The decision will be that of Egypt---but it will be interesting to see what Egypt decides once the JF17 BLK 3 with aesa becomes available.

 

[The SC]

Maybe that's where JF-17 will comes in.

Yes, but not the AIM-120 C/D series (not yet, since it will come with the upgrades to V), they have a BVR capability in the AIM-7 Sparrow

No. But Rafale will change that.

Rafale, Mig-35 and SU-35 will add the missing capabilities. AKA the most recent BVR missiles, MICA, METEOR and the most advanced Russian and Chinese ones.. in this regard, the US won't have anymore leverage and will deliver the AMRAAM AIM 120 C and D to Egypt along with the new Viper upgrade package..

Hi,

The decision will be that of Egypt---but it will be interesting to see what Egypt decides once the JF17 BLK 3 with aesa becomes available.

That is a killer! That is why they are sending assessment teams to Pakistan.. Egypt takes 3 years in average between showing interest, evaluation and signing deals, they have shown interest in 2013/2013, now they are assessing, One should expect a deal (JV) somewhere in the middle of 2017.. The JF-17 Blk 3 will have its own place in much of the Arab air forces, For KSA, and Egypt , it will form a third striking force or third deadly layer ,,

Bismillah ir Rahman ar Raheem

Yo have to look at it in the light of their history; short-changed delivery of some neutered weapon systems from their one ally in past wars and the ensuing distrust of weapons suppliers in general (notwithstanding the sourcing and stocking of complete arsenals from the US in the post-Camp David Saadat and Mubarak eras - the coffers and force inventories were pretty depleted at the beginning of that decade-and-a-half era and they wanted to appease their new masters; the huge amount of US aid money and local assembly was salivating but ended up making them mostly dependent on a single source once again).

Sissi in particular is extremely paranoid and very wary of the US, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. He would practically sell the country to buy exorbitantly-priced French arms (even in extremely limited numbers) so that he may have something operational in the air, on the ground, (and now on the seas) to combat whomever will try to topple him both from within and without.

The Saudis have traditionally bought a lot of junk - French AMX tanks, British Lightning and Tornado ADV interceptors, etc. - so that they might have something, hopefully half their inventory available, in case they need to go to a war not sanctioned by their US overlords. If they could, they would expand beyond US and Great Britain to include more French and Italian arms in their purchases (Switzerland, Sweden ,and Germany are currently becoming no-gos for them; Spain seems OK; the Russian almost-romance did not quite take).

The current Saudi defense minister, the King's son, is actually more encouraging in what he seems to want to do so far - source and invest in technology acquisition and local manufacture. The scrapping of the over-priced and useless US Littoral Combat Ships was a promising first step. Their self-reliance mantra seem to be encouraging Qatar and the UAE along the same path also.

Looking at things from the perspective of disciplined forces such as the Turkish and Pakistani armed forces who meticulously maintain their inventory and tend to want to reduce their logistics footprint and superfluous equipment support requirements so that they can actually fight a war without getting hobbled by a disparate and varied inventory on the very first day, the Arab way looks strange to us. But it seems normal to them from their excessive paranoia (justified often), lack of manpower and training, and shoddy (and until now foreign dependent) maintenance policies.

You made some good points, but you missed reality by a good margin.. You just forgot to mention the new presence of the game changing fifth generation F-35 in Usrael and the Void left by Syria, Libya and Iraq's armies in the Arab world.. that is the main reasons for Egypt's quest to new Technologies, Rafale a 4++ generation will be 36, Mig-35 and SU-35 are also 4++ Generation and they will come 52 and 29 respectively.. Egypt needs to replace around 200 old fighters, so at least 125 JF-17 Blk 2 and 3 with AESA will be produced in a JV with Pakistan/ China..
If you want to involve politics in these matters than all speculations are possible.. let's keep it simple and based on facts alone..

 

[Naif al Hilali]

You made some good points, but you missed reality by a good margin.. You just forgot to mention the new presence of the game changing fifth generation F-35 in Usrael and the Void left by Syria, Libya and Iraq's armies in the Arab world.. that is the main reasons for Egypt's quest to new Technologies, Rafale a 4++ generation will be 36, Mig-35 and SU-35 are also 4++ Generation and they will come 52 and 29 respectively.. Egypt needs to replace around 200 old fighters, so at least 125 JF-17 Blk 2 and 3 with AESA will be produced in a JV with Pakistan/ China..
If you want to involve politics in these matters than all speculations are possible.. let's keep it simple and based on facts alone..

Bismillah ir Rahman ar Raheem

Thanks brother. I was just answering the historical portion of araz's question. All your points are extremely valid; I did not rehash them because I thought they had probably been discussed before.

Thank you again for clarifying current reality.

 

[The SC]

My only comment looking at the inventory of Egypt AF is that it is multisourced and very varied. It can potwntially be a maintenance nightmare. What are your thoughts.
A

You should know better!
Egypt already has the maintenance facilities for Mirage, that will take care of the Rafale
it has facilities for the Mig-29 that will take care of the Mig-35, new maintenance facilities will be needed for the SU-35, in brief, It is no headache for Egypt..

Does not seem correct after shopping Rafale and mig 35 there is little room left for EAF to buy JF 17 no money .

Money won't be a problem,, if Egypt produces the JF-17 at the same rate as Pakistan , 16/year it can have 160 of them in a 10 year period, the price will be spread on 10 years.. they might order 40 off the shelf to start with..

 

[Basel]

Hi,

Are the egyptian F16's capable of launching BVR missiles---?

They will also have new BVR capable Mig-29/35 too.

 

[Naif al Hilali]

You should know better!
Egypt already has the maintenance facilities for Mirage, that will take care of the Rafale
it has facilities for the Mig-29 that will take care of the Mig-35, new maintenance facilities will be needed for the SU-35, in brief, It is no headache for Egypt.

Bismillah ir Rahman ar Raheem

Battlefield maintenance and wartime sortie management are whole different propositions though and that is where Egypt has lagged historically. Good of Egypt to insist on assembly overhaul facilities in the last decade or two but the Rafale and Mirages are quite different beasts.

 

[The SC]

Bismillah ir Rahman ar Raheem

Battlefield maintenance and wartime sortie management are whole different propositions though and that is where Egypt has lagged historically. Good of Egypt to insist on assembly overhaul facilities in the last decade or two but the Rafale and Mirages are quite different beasts.

They are, so new machinery will be needed not new installations..
They only had the Miig-21 historically and that was up to 1973.. modern Egyptian armed forces are totally different, be it in doctrine or in weapons..

 

[Frogman]

They are, so new machinery will be needed not new installations..
The only had the Miig-21 historically and that was up to 1973.. modern Egyptian armed forces are totally different, be it in doctrine or in weapons..

Sustaining a relatively high exercise/sortie rate whilst supporting three kinetic ops (Sinai Libya Yemen) is proof that the Egyptian Air Force has changed drastically over the years.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

I think that some posters are too dug up in maintenance---lesser the variety---better it is---.

But they are forgetting the most important factor---what if your aircraft---the primo---one you are dependant upon gets neutered by the enemy---what would you have to fall back on them---. You are by default done and dusted.

That is a why a certain minimum number of variety is a must---and specially when facing a better equipped enemy---.

 

[war&peace]

Let us connect the dots...

Eygpte wants to join OBOR... a direct link from CPEC.

Who is building the new Eyptian capitol?

Eygpte also wants to be part of SCO.

Any surprise if Eypgte shaow interst in JF.

Money is no problem. Credit line will be arranged from China without any problems.

Pak-China can help Eygpte build a factory for JF if the go beyond a 100. Which they will..

Patience is the key here. Let it emerge slowly.

When Eypgte goes for JF... they will be automatically qued in for NGF of PAF and down the line J31.

As I have said before..JF is to become Mig21 of 21st century.

All the very best to PAC/PAF... if only they stop using stupid words like 'cheap' or 'cost effective'.

One hopes the promtion and sales teams stop using idoitic language.


The USP of JF is that its best in its class without any political strings attached. Free Fighter!

A very nice analysis.

(Highlighted part) I hope that changes with Block III, since it will be more capable than any F16 without AESA and Egyptian AF can benefit from using Rafale and JF17 in tandem.
JF17 is going to be a big success inshaAllah and profits earned can be invested in next gen A/C program.

 

[araz]

Bismillah ir Rahman ar Raheem

Yo have to look at it in the light of their history; short-changed delivery of some neutered weapon systems from their one ally in past wars and the ensuing distrust of weapons suppliers in general (notwithstanding the sourcing and stocking of complete arsenals from the US in the post-Camp David Saadat and Mubarak eras - the coffers and force inventories were pretty depleted at the beginning of that decade-and-a-half era and they wanted to appease their new masters; the huge amount of US aid money and local assembly was salivating but ended up making them mostly dependent on a single source once again).

Sissi in particular is extremely paranoid and very wary of the US, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. He would practically sell the country to buy exorbitantly-priced French arms (even in extremely limited numbers) so that he may have something operational in the air, on the ground, (and now on the seas) to combat whomever will try to topple him both from within and without.

The Saudis have traditionally bought a lot of junk - French AMX tanks, British Lightning and Tornado ADV interceptors, etc. - so that they might have something, hopefully half their inventory available, in case they need to go to a war not sanctioned by their US overlords. If they could, they would expand beyond US and Great Britain to include more French and Italian arms in their purchases (Switzerland, Sweden ,and Germany are currently becoming no-gos for them; Spain seems OK; the Russian almost-romance did not quite take).

The current Saudi defense minister, the King's son, is actually more encouraging in what he seems to want to do so far - source and invest in technology acquisition and local manufacture. The scrapping of the over-priced and useless US Littoral Combat Ships was a promising first step. Their self-reliance mantra seem to be encouraging Qatar and the UAE along the same path also.

Looking at things from the perspective of disciplined forces such as the Turkish and Pakistani armed forces who meticulously maintain their inventory and tend to want to reduce their logistics footprint and superfluous equipment support requirements so that they can actually fight a war without getting hobbled by a disparate and varied inventory on the very first day, the Arab way looks strange to us. But it seems normal to them from their excessive paranoia (justified often), lack of manpower and training, and shoddy (and until now foreign dependent) maintenance policies.

The problem for egypt could well be solved via the JFT route, especially the Block 3 with all the bells and whistles. They have had a brief flirt with the idea some time back. Considering that most of their money for the recent acquisitions "Allegedly" has come from Saudis, I wondered whether the recent visit by the Saudis was to buy the JFT for them although this would be a far cry. I think both for Saudis and the Egyptians especially for the later it makes sense to establish manufacturing facilities for the JFT and become the supply hub for the African continent. For the Saudis the prospect of their own fighter which although not the bees knees is pretty decent and to set up their aviation industry around a relatively simple fighter is a God given opportunity. The y can build up from there and be independent.The real question is whether they will be allowed to do so as the Golden Goose of the West cannot be allowed to slip out of their hands.
A

You should know better!
Egypt already has the maintenance facilities for Mirage, that will take care of the Rafale
it has facilities for the Mig-29 that will take care of the Mig-35, new maintenance facilities will be needed for the SU-35, in brief, It is no headache for Egypt..


Money won't be a problem,, if Egypt produces the JF-17 at the same rate as Pakistan , 16/year it can have 160 of them in a 10 year period, the price will be spread on 10 years.. they might order 40 off the shelf to start with..

My question was purely related to diversity of platforms and therefore maintenance issues. However I wwould point out that the facilities in Egypt for M3/5 are totally inadequate for the Rafale or even M2Ks for which I very much doubt they have anything more than depot level maintenance facilities.
Mig 29 facilities may well be able to take over maintenance for the 35s however it will also have to be retooled and that will cost. SU35 will need newer facilities and that will cost. So in here we have the nightmare of setting up repair and depot level maintenance for 3 different platforms, Over hauling will be a much more intensive project and you can see the extent of headache it is going to cause.
If you just have depot level maintenance then for any minor faults parts will have to go to the provider which will badly hamper fleet availability. The Russians especially are not knownb for their after sales service to put it mildly.
The JFT will be a good tool to have in large numbers and will cause some flutters in the neighbourhood although as always newer technology will be acquired in response.
A

 

[araz]

Hi,

I think that some posters are too dug up in maintenance---lesser the variety---better it is---.

But they are forgetting the most important factor---what if your aircraft---the primo---one you are dependant upon gets neutered by the enemy---what would you have to fall back on them---. You are by default done and dusted.

That is a why a certain minimum number of variety is a must---and specially when facing a better equipped enemy---.

This is where the advantage of an indegenous built platform comes in. If you talk of being neutered by X then potentially it can be done by Y as well. The french did it to the Argentinians and will do it again if the stakes are high enough. So no one is immune to being neutered by anyone.Against their prime enemy ie Israel(if at all you consider it to be the enemy of the Arabs) they will be neutered by all and sundry and have been done so before as well and even if they were not Egypt would end up getting Nuked. So the problem is there is no right answer to this conundrum.
A

 

[Peaceful Civilian]

A very nice analysis.

(Highlighted part) I hope that changes with Block III, since it will be more capable than any F16 without AESA and Egyptian AF can benefit from using Rafale and JF17 in tandem.
JF17 is going to be a big success inshaAllah and profits earned can be invested in next gen A/C program.

JF 17 has great future. It is improving every year. We have big market for this, hope we utilize our maximum efforts and skills for further improvements. Can't wait for block III and it's pictures.

 

[MastanKhan]

This is where the advantage of an indegenous built platform comes in. If you talk of being neutered by X then potentially it can be done by Y as well. The french did it to the Argentinians and will do it again if the stakes are high enough. So no one is immune to being neutered by anyone.Against their prime enemy ie Israel(if at all you consider it to be the enemy of the Arabs) they will be neutered by all and sundry and have been done so before as well and even if they were not Egypt would end up getting Nuked. So the problem is there is no right answer to this conundrum.
A

Hi,

If such is the case then one may put their head between their legs and kiss their ar-se good bye---.

That would be a no brainer. Why take the struggles of living---why not end it.