OK, so as we have seen that Afghan government and Taliban have resumed the fighting from where they last left, I have a different assessment of this scenario.
The United States wanted to leave Afghanistan, but her deep state never wanted to lose the influence at the mercy of other countries, specifically China. The current pact, in my honest opinion, is to save the lives of the US/ NATO soldiers, and to tell the public that Trump has fulfilled his promise. So that era has ended when the US or NATO was directly involved in fighting Taliban.
But a new era of fighting has begun now. The US and her allies, specially India, are about to begin a long proxy war in Afghanistan. Neither the US nor India wants that their proxies in Afghanistan and Pakistan and trillions of dollars of the US investment goes down the drain. Both countries (the US and India) have proxies in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and fortunately for them, unfortunately for us, both both countries are in complete agreement to use same proxies to further their interests.
What is happening in Afghanistan right now was cent percent expected, and people who are in knowledge of the games being played behind curtains knew how PTM and other proxies in Pakistan will behave. People, who think that Ali Wazir's or Manzoor Pashteen's statements against Pakistan were given without the blessings of the deep state of the US, live in a fools' paradise.
Lets talk about the plan of allies in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US has saved her neck in Afghanistan, and her forces may leave the region in next 14 months, however, funding to proxies will continue. The US and her allies will not let Afghan forces under current regime get weaker against Taliban. In addition to that, they have to keep a check on Pakistan so that support to end chaos in Afghanistan may not be fully delivered to Taliban from our side. To do that, they have most likely decided to continue their funding to PTM, BLA and JUI-F, and buy more parties/ organizations which can be easily bought (and most of them are available cheap).
The US and India are also in agreement that Pakistan should not be able to fully turn towards Indian Occupied Kashmir. For Indians, it is more in their favor if they spend few dollars on northern alliance government and do not lose a single soldier than they spend fighting Kashmiri mujahidin backed by Pakistan and spend billions of dollars plus lose lives. They have in all likelihood given assurance to the US, that they are not in a mood to leave their Afghan partners alone.
Another factor is China. The US will never allow Chinese to reap benefits of secure connectivity to Arabian sea. This will mean huge trade advantage to China over the whole west for another couple of decades. Of course, the only way to counter China is to make this region hell one more time with the help of its real ally India, which shares the same objectives.
So in summary, I don't think that fighting will stop in Afghanistan anytime soon, and PTM/ BLA etc will stop their activities in Pakistan. In fact, now the US will feel much less pressure and will only spend few dollars on Afghan namak haraams to destabilize the region. India will be fully on board and together, their plan to keep hurting Pakistan and China to achieve greater objectives.
Will write about Pakistan's possible response soon.
@Mangus Ortus Novem @SIPRA @Path-Finder @Areesh @BHarwana
