Doha Peace Pact 2020 : US-Taliban Deal - Analysis

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

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The truth about Afghanistan is as you illustrated it to be, in fact the government of Afghanistan could have eliminated the Taliban along time ago if they were really serious about it, they could have elected a dictator, gave him power without impunity, and if anything happened within Afghanistan from Pakistan, then they could have responded with even more lethality, and Pakistan wouldn't have been able to do anything given that US would have been standing behind them. They would have solved the Taliban problem, they would have had a functioning government, and could have had a democracy or whatever system they wanted.

So, I disagree here... since we are speculating on what if scenarios... I disagree that Afghan government would have ever mustered enough vigor and capacity to eliminate Talibs ... to placate the majority and undermine Talibs ... U.S. went for Karzai, a pushtoon. But let's say if it was Dostum at the helm, would the things be any different? Yes, very... Afghanistan would have entered full fledged civil war... where minorities would have faced a genocide and larger Pashtun populations overtly rebelling against the state. So, efficiency or a dictator were not an answer then... they aren't now.

But in reality however, is that the Afghans did not care! Each one of them was concerned about his immediate interest within the moment, political bickering, bribery, misallocation of funds... Need I go on? This is the reason why Taliban became stronger and stronger and... stronger.

From my point of view, why have a government that is inept and weak? Taliban, have a system of meritocracy, are committed, want a prosperous Afghanistan, and actually care about its interests. While this government, is begging for USA not to leave and dreaming of wanting India to come inside, is this not the definition of insanity?

Simply put... Talibs got to consolidate their positions and areas sitting tight ... any government that runs on foreign funds will naturally be siphoning funds and availing them for personal use... Pakistan and countries like it ... do it to this day ... it is an inherent pitfall of a 5 year democratic term ... where personal benefit often outweighs national interests... because that same person may not see another term in office. Anyways, more concerning and troubling issue was India setting the agenda for Afghan government and using it as a proxy against Pakistan... perhaps Indians thought U.S. will stay forever or that their shenanigans will bare fruit in short term? Who know? But, that means Afghan government has only India and perhaps Iran to fall back on, their original sponsors.

Now the Taliban needs to finish off this government, then Afghanistan can have its civilian war, and if any nation is interested in getting involved? Welcome! Our guns are ready and we have already dug the burial ground! Once our civilian war is finished, then we can have a proper unified government that actually cares about the interests and well being of Afghanistan. Right now if we have peace, we will only be falling into a trap, we would be like a man who would be drinking a sweet drink only to later find out that it was poisoned; Better to drink a bitter drink and be cured afterwards then to live with this disease that we currently have.

The best thing Pakistan can do is continue supporting us, then when the conditions are favourable for us, a real peace will be underway. And if Pakistan thinks it can stop us, then I say go ahead and give it a try... But a civilian war should happen and it must happen for things to be properly sorted out.

If it goes for civil war... and as you put it ... Taliban needs to finish it off... I don't think it is that simple especially if Afghan government digs in... easiest would be if the transplants bolt... because unraveling will be bloody and will undoubtedly leave scars that may always come back to haunt future generations.

What Pakistan can and should do is ... controlled landing. Bringing about the end of current regime and supplanting it with first regional structures and controlling their national ambitions and secondly providing federal representation... more importantly keep foreign hands/spoilers out of the mix as much as possible ... longer peace gets a chance better for everyone to settle into their respective roles.

 

[StormBreaker]

My apologies for not giving input to the thread, I was caught up with other assignment & preparing the OSINT report. am working on answering your questions now


Although it is addressed to Jaibi, but let me just add my few cents. Although Afghan men are seen as warriors & Afghanistan is called Graveyard of empires, but war is not their main trade. Even back in Soviet – Afghan War, Mujahideen were residing in refugee camps in Pakistan and would rotate back to the battlefield in Afghanistan at a set schedule. An individual would reach Afghanistan, be part of the war against Soviet forces, once his set period ended he would return back to refugee camp in Pakistan. To meet their life needs they would be involved directly in trade business. These ‘warriors’ ran business as far as in Karachi and were well established in the Trade & Transport industry.

Coming back to present time, integrating these individuals back into society will not be an easy task. It will take some time and commitment. Pakistan was able to do so successfully and we are still doing so. Former TTP fighters were saved through a continuous process by teaching them various trades, education & were integrated back to society. Below is an excerpt from a USIP report by Shuja Nawaz on Countering Militancy in Pakistan. IF you can read, the last word is very clear and sets the strategy
View attachment 611075

Thank you very much Sir, your answer was very detailed and a very productive addition to the thread.

In the end, Most of the times I don’t agree with the statement “Eye for an eye makes the whole world blind”, but given the militant population in this region, primary focus should be to counter them but if you arrest them, try your best to rehabilitate them.

Trust me, an average 40 year old poor man working on street is equivalent to a 16 year old middle/upper class or more specifically educated class boy. I myself get surprised as to why such a person (poor person mentioned above) has restricted creativity and mind to even not understand the basic science (Eg : blowing air over fire makes it worse) so all these men basically are dwelling in their restricted minds and that is what makes them exploitative and dangerous in turn, useful for others...

 

[diligence]

Who is backing Ghani to back away from peace deal here the Indian ambassador. These son of Satan will not allow peace to prevail in Afghanistan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1234409375084634112

Every one knows that the Doha peace deal is between Taliban and the US. The mutual release of captives is part of that deal. Taliban will release the captives as a reciprocal act to the release by the US. Now if the actual custody of captured Taliban fighters remains with Ashraf Ghani and how those captives will be released are really the issues between the US and Ashraf Ghani. And no one knows the real worth of a puppet like Ashraf Ghani better than the master US.

Also, if Ashraf Ghani refuses to cooperate in the deal, there is no bar for Taliban attacking Ashraf Ghani forces. The US and Ashraf Ghani both know it very well how weak Ashraf Ghani forces will prove to be against Taliban attacks. Taliban can simply bulldoze these forces in reality. So no value of Ashraf Ghani's moaning.

Why don't Indians send their troops into Afghanistan to be relevant in the whole game?

 

[diligence]

Who is backing Ghani to back away from peace deal here the Indian ambassador. These son of Satan will not allow peace to prevail in Afghanistan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1234409375084634112

Now that US-Taliban deal has been signed without taking the puppet mayor of Kabul, Ashraf Ghani, onboard, it is widely expected that Taliban will soon kick out Ashraf regime from Kabul. If that happens, Indians will lose all their leverage in Afghanistan. Indians have been using NDS, some Afghan land lords, smugglers, and criminals to launch terrorist attacks on Pakistani people. The question is what options Indians have for themselves in Afghanistan?
Indians (especially Hindu RSS terrorist fascists (including Modi and his gang) have been monolithically working for establishing 'Akhand Bharat' (or Greater United Bharat) consisting of one pure Hindu country (i.e. having 100% Hindu population by converting or eliminating the members of minorities) for decades now. Akhand Bharat is supposed to include all areas starting from Nepal and Bhutan to parts of Afghanistan and Iran. Even currently the strategic Indian circles keep claiming that these areas are, in fact, a part of their sphere of influence. So Indian stakes in Afghanistan are not confined merely to the openly stated ones. But the current turn of events has left Indians with few strategic options.

It is indeed the case that Indians can stay relevant in Afghanistan only as long as the current puppet Ashraf Ghani government stays in the control of Kabul, which will be not a long lived possibility unless an effective external support comes in and rather quickly. That's where Indians have a window of opportunity to save a vital front of their sphere of influence. It is a well known fact that India is one of the major supporters of global Daish (ISIS) and local TTP terrorist groups. Indians can and will deploy their assets in Daish and TTP to fight against Taliban. But that is not going to work favorably due to the huge difference of strength between the two sides. The only option left for Indians is sending their boots onto the Afghan land. After all, Indians have invested (according to only themselves) billions of dollars in Afghanistan.

Sending and deploying two divisions of Indian troops to Afghanistan is not infeasible financial burden for Indians either. They keep boasting of around $400 billions in their foreign reserves. What's the advantage of that stash of money if you cannot spent a part of it to safeguard one of your most crucial strategic goals. There is no dearth of man power in Indian military either. They can easily spare two divisions worth man power without denting their over all deployments. Best of all, every one will be happy (a win-win situation for Indians) by Indian deployment in Afghanistan. Those welcoming and applauding Indian invasion of Afghanistan will include, but not limited to, Ashraf Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah and some other Afghan ethnic groups, drug traffickers, smugglers and criminals, Israelis, Americans, Iranians, domestic Indian Hindu populace, etc. Some noises will emerge only from Pakistanis and Afghan Taliban. That could be done away easily.

Another important benefit emerging out of Indian invasion of Afghanistan will be a change in world perception of Indian Hindus. Their forefathers thought it a major sin to travel overseas. So they were content and kept fighting with each in the subcontinent. The only recent exception is Indian venture in Sri Lanka. But Indians ran out pretty soon due to the cowardice of Rajiv Ghandi. Now it's a real opportunity for Indians to change that perception. Show the world that we don't really run with our tail between our legs. Rather we have our tail out of our legs (or in a body bag). That's a minor price for converting a race into a martial race. Other countries in Indian sphere of influence will find their safety by falling in line.

For claiming and benefiting a sphere of influence, one has to seriously strive out for establishing such a sphere first. You need resources, military power, willingness, and courage. Indians have everything except the last. They have to show that if they really want to claim or have their own sphere of influence. That cannot be achieved by just issuing political statements, empty threats, and excessive drinking of cow-mutra.