This thread is just for DEEP Talks and Related long posts with rich content and analysis.
Respected Mods, Kindly don’t merge it or delete it.
Some concerns and points regarding the recent development are clear.
- An extremely Fragile deal, Such that, even a week before signing such, there were constant verbal rift between usa and AFT in Afghanistan.
- USA has ego BUT it has a “FedUp of Afg war” Trump but to Trump, Ego AS WELL matters a lot of his country. He wants to leave but he wants to leave in respect and without Constant “GetOut” messages from AFT.
- USA can stage some drama to eventually hurt this deal, sometime sooner or later OR maybe not as well, former being the most probable. It seems almost too easy for them go off that easily on table. (Post 18 years war)
- Afghan front to Iran is really important to USA for a potential future conflict with Iran
- Very important Point to note here is that US will withdraw 4400 Troops from AFG in the next 3-4 months, leaving behind 8600, these 8600 are subject to AFT’s fulfillment of terms in the contract. What are the terms ? We don’t know yet (or do we ?). Though, these terms have been known to AFT since long but yet even till now, AFT has been speaking aggressively against USA. So the point is, AFT isn’t happy with terms but it is willing to cooperate all it can. Let’s see how this goes.
- Remaining 8600 are no less of a threat, if the agreement gets messed up (God Forbid), These remaining troops will still play their part in the proxies again, ANF and AFT remains unpredictable. Might be that, the budget required for these 8600 troops is something that won’t bother USA much as compared to current spendings, who knows ? They are cunning, very very cunning.
- US “WON’T intervene in Afghan domestic affairs ? So end of Ashraf Ghani regime ? Why so much rigging and delays in the recent election, just to be decided some weeks before the peace pact ?
- Now, “Dolaan Trump” visit to India just before the Pact, Coincidence ? Even if scheduled many months ago, something might have been discussed together, right ? Since this has been the most important soil for USA and India to play proxy with Pakistan or did Gen Raheel Sharif, NAP and Gen Qamar Bajwa disappoint the USA to such extent by fencing the border such that USA had no reason left to remain in Afghanistan, right ? Very definitely yes it is.
- British left India and Pakistan, disputed over Kashmir for a very long period, to date this has cost thousands of Lives and trillions of Dollars and Generations of education and Economic development and prosperity, Afghanistan will face a massive Civil war, AFT has good influence and power but so does Afghan Regime and ANF, both are almost equal in territory but one point of the deal raises some serious issue over here “US commits to dedicate funds, Training, Advice and equipment for ANF annually, This will act as a catalyst for a non ending civil war (Syria and Iraq comes in mind).
- Generations trained to become fighters, Low prospects to develop the nation soon into educational hub for the Afghan nationals and to seek FDI for local industries and Trade development, China is required here very much !!!
- In a hypothetical scenario, US has some troops left in Afghanistan, the deal goes bad, Forces are stuck, Pakistan will be primarily sought to help US. Pakistan helping US in this regard would be primarily on table, but if that doesn’t work out, US might try to milk Pakistan with some goodies to help out, But Pakistan doesn’t want to and definitely will not want to have any enmity with AFT or AFG.
Hope that this peace pact which seems like a dream to me becomes a dream come true as well In’Sha’ALLAH and that Afghanistan becomes a sovereign country, Afghanis residing in Pakistan return back to their country, Afghanis in middle east, UK, Canada and USA return as well, Just set up businesses, Rebuild it, Bring back their money and investment (Afghanis are quite rich people when it comes to owning businesses outside of Afghanistan, I know it very well), A strong and Stable Afghanistan is a Peace of Mind for Pakistan.
Brother
@jaibi I thought this question would be best answered by you, Thousands of Children, Young and old men are used to arms for decades, have been subject to violence by USA and before that, by Soviets, How could Dis-Arming and Integrating them back to society and promoting common civilian culture happen ? Educating them, Industrializing Afghanistan, Bringing in FDI is the key, but what is more important above all is the “
OWN WILL”, This is what stops even the regular decoits and beggars on streets to be productive in a civilized way. But i think AFT is quite Mature and will want themselves to drive the economy up & further by getting their own people trained, educated and integrating in working sectors. But it all comes down to “How to convince a person to change his current state of being a fighter and a warrior to being a Trader/Doctor/Professor ?”
@Mangus Ortus Novem @Irfan Baloch @The Eagle @Verve @SIPRA @Socra @Dubious @PakSword @aziqbal @Bratva @Foxtrot Alpha @Signalian @aliyusuf @HRK @fatman17 @Major Sam @Tempest II
Can we all gentlemen have a good and detailed conversation on this topic ? I am amazed to see the lack of importance by the big brains here towards the development. Off course, all others who have good points to share from their part as equally welcome here. But Must be specific to Afghanistan or the content outline below, nothing unnecessary.
Key points :
- Current pact outlines
- Possible hurdles
- Possible future solutions
- If everything goes alright, How does the region transform, Afghanistan Internally and externally
- Importance to Pakistan in short term as well as long term
- Importance to Iran
- ANF and Afghan Regime, How AFT and they coexist ? Civil war or a Mutual peace ?
- And most importantly, Pakistan AND USA relations post complete withdrawal, Pakistan’s importance to USA, Ally status, What comes of it ?
Let’s start !!!
No one liners please, it’s been some time since PDF has seen some good threads, let make this one, or any of your choice, a good thread
