Hello my American comrades,
Please enlighten me to your visions of one or another outcomes of US elections this year.
What I myself see is that Americans are given a straw poll, with both straws being short ones.
Outcome two: Trump wins
I see him continuing him being a weak president on domestic issues. Opposition will continue tripping him on every corner. The split house condition is very unlikely to go, even with if R will score a majority just for the fact the man knows how to pump divisiveness.
The few initiatives he can pick on domestic front will come from his staff. This time, I see his staff will see the win as an even bigger carte blanche for even bolder moves on government spending, and debt.
On foreign relations arena, I see further intractability growing across the Atlantic, with NATOExit possibility being the biggest black swan.
He seem to very much like China hawks, and I see that faction of his administration continuing being the main driver behind foreign policy.
His staff, and advisers will continue making circles around him, and this term will be even more expressly defined not by the president himself, but his "team" of many random talents.
Outcome one: Biden wins
I keep being surprised just how much similar personality traits does he have with the big T. One is his good talent "hipfiring" big claims, and promises just to backpedal on them the next day. And he is a bit like Xi: his political experience is largely limited to doing it in a framework of a small elite club, never been subject to harshness of big wide world. The lip service, and a ritual is half of what politics is for those types.
I see Biden being a weak president on domestic issues exactly because the man will be forgetting his agenda on the next day. A maximum what he can do will be a "Clinton light" policy, but it will not to reach the scale, and success of the original. I follow the theory that, in USA, presidential elections affect the outcomes of house election. If D can show that they can overcomes everything which is thrown at them this time, very likely a lot of R backers will turn their back on them. The democratic party seem to be much less likely to be split internally, with it being a party of old-boy elites, but they will likely not take any opportunities to take major initiatives as the status quo post-Trump will suit them very much.
The few initiatives he can pick on domestic front will come from his staff, and I see an even bigger oldboy mercenary team being picked by his number 2.
On foreign relations arena, I see further intractability growing across the Atlantic, but this time, because overseas allies will be on his neck. I see him standing for "trans-Atlantic passivity," just like Obame. His officially stated goal is to bring America to its usual role as an alliance builder, and a leader, but he fails to realise that America's "alliance mates" don't really like to be lead anymore, and most likely demand biiiig concessions for that to happen.
His staff, and advisers will continue making circles around him, and this term will be even more expressly defined not by the president himself, but his "team" whose members all came to it for their own reasons.
Please enlighten me to your visions of one or another outcomes of US elections this year.
What I myself see is that Americans are given a straw poll, with both straws being short ones.
Outcome two: Trump wins
I see him continuing him being a weak president on domestic issues. Opposition will continue tripping him on every corner. The split house condition is very unlikely to go, even with if R will score a majority just for the fact the man knows how to pump divisiveness.
The few initiatives he can pick on domestic front will come from his staff. This time, I see his staff will see the win as an even bigger carte blanche for even bolder moves on government spending, and debt.
On foreign relations arena, I see further intractability growing across the Atlantic, with NATOExit possibility being the biggest black swan.
He seem to very much like China hawks, and I see that faction of his administration continuing being the main driver behind foreign policy.
His staff, and advisers will continue making circles around him, and this term will be even more expressly defined not by the president himself, but his "team" of many random talents.
Outcome one: Biden wins
I keep being surprised just how much similar personality traits does he have with the big T. One is his good talent "hipfiring" big claims, and promises just to backpedal on them the next day. And he is a bit like Xi: his political experience is largely limited to doing it in a framework of a small elite club, never been subject to harshness of big wide world. The lip service, and a ritual is half of what politics is for those types.
I see Biden being a weak president on domestic issues exactly because the man will be forgetting his agenda on the next day. A maximum what he can do will be a "Clinton light" policy, but it will not to reach the scale, and success of the original. I follow the theory that, in USA, presidential elections affect the outcomes of house election. If D can show that they can overcomes everything which is thrown at them this time, very likely a lot of R backers will turn their back on them. The democratic party seem to be much less likely to be split internally, with it being a party of old-boy elites, but they will likely not take any opportunities to take major initiatives as the status quo post-Trump will suit them very much.
The few initiatives he can pick on domestic front will come from his staff, and I see an even bigger oldboy mercenary team being picked by his number 2.
On foreign relations arena, I see further intractability growing across the Atlantic, but this time, because overseas allies will be on his neck. I see him standing for "trans-Atlantic passivity," just like Obame. His officially stated goal is to bring America to its usual role as an alliance builder, and a leader, but he fails to realise that America's "alliance mates" don't really like to be lead anymore, and most likely demand biiiig concessions for that to happen.
His staff, and advisers will continue making circles around him, and this term will be even more expressly defined not by the president himself, but his "team" whose members all came to it for their own reasons.
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