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This is the new cliche of commentators, more or less informed, more or less well-intentioned. The Rafale is too expensive, so it does not sell, and if France still buy it to please Mr. Dassault. Welcome to Trade coffee!
"What is it?" As Marshal Foch said.
Yes, the Rafale is expensive. But expensive, does he mean too expensive? Too expensive compared to what? In the absence of a credible national defense? With the abandonment of one of the most successful industries in a country already hit by deindustrialization? A foreign competitors who are, or that would lead our country into a political dependence? It is also this that should be discussed and this blog will help.
On the basis of parliamentary reports, it is estimated by dividing the payment appropriations by the number of aircraft delivered in the period 2006-2011, the average price to about 116 million euros the unit.
But beware, this price is inclusive, that is to say that integrates the 19.6% VAT. A tax credit that comes from the Department of Defense, but amounts to the final in the state coffers: the taxpayer, the net price of the Rafale should be expressed net of tax. We are therefore at a price of 94 million euros.
A recent Senate report estimates the total cost of the Rafale program for public finances to 43.567 billion euros over the duration of the program (taking into account inflation since the launch in 1989) and that, on the basis of a control set of 286 planes. TTC is 152 million each (112 or HT). The difference compared to our previous calculation due to the fact that this price includes the development of the aircraft, now paid for the current version (F3). Remains an uncertainty in this calculation: the final number of aircraft to be built. Least there will be more and the unit price will be high - this is the well-known principle of economies of scale. Originally, 320 Rafale to be ordered by France. Currently, the target is 286 units, but the only thing certain is that 180 were actually ordered to date. And there was no export order.
Overall, and it is rare enough to point out, the prices originally planned (in constant currency) were held: the court of accounts speak of a drift of 4.7%, compared to 51 +, 8% for hélicioptère + Tiger or 29.1% for the Armoured Infantry Fighting (VBCI). As for the A400M, its price increased by 25% before the first flight ... Abroad, the Eurofighter has drifted about 70% according to the NOA, the Court of Auditors UK while the U.S. F-35 is a bottomless pit. The plane was still not in service, it is risky to advance a serious price. One thing is already certain: it will be the program of combat aircraft the most expensive in history! The latest available data suggest a total cost of 323 billion dollars for 2443 devices only for U.S. forces (USAF, USN, USMC). Is 101 millon euros the unit. Given that development costs have exploded by 40% and the production of 60 to 90% depending on the version, there is no evidence that this wild ride is over.
Yet, countries more or less comparable to France will buy it ... What it costs them. The United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Canada, Israel, Australia, Turkey, Singapore - and maybe soon Japan will embark on this program. Contrary to the Rafale, it is not a multi-purpose aircraft, but a device primarily for ground attack. Besides all the senior Air Force plans to keep, next, an air-air interceptor not necessarily cheap either as the F-22 or the Eurofighter Typhoon ...
Five European countries of the Atlantic Alliance will choose the American F-35: This shows that the acquisition of a combat aircraft is above all a political choice. Sometimes the price is the issue, for example in the case of Switzerland who just prefer the Swedish Gripen Rafale French. The plane is cheaper, in fact, but for good reason: it is less efficient than the Rafale. Dassault propaganda? No, assessments of Swiss aviators themselves. But Switzerland probably did not need a plane in the range of Rafale. For its air defense, it has excellent F-18 and he had to replace its old F-5 ... a light fighter of the generation of Mirage III.
The Rafale is an excellent plane - probably the best ever produced by the French aerospace industry in a century of existence. The hundreds of aircraft delivered to date [104 exactly, 4 were lost and 10 of the first standard are mothballed in the Navy] can get an idea of ​​these qualities. The Rafale has already participated in two wars (Afghanistan and Libya) and ensures the daily air defense missions (permanent Security Posture) and nuclear deterrence. Its versatility is its strength: it can carry out missions of air-air interception, reconnaissance, ground attack and strategic strikes, from the ground or an aircraft carrier. The only comparable aircraft in the world is the F-18 E / F.
Moreover, this flexibility can reduce the number of aircraft required to complete all missions. As an example, and according to the calculations of experts, that the Swiss wanted to do with their 22 aircraft to be acquired could have been achieved by 12 Rafale.
There is, in our country, a true national masochism, to denigrate our success. This is something strange. We prefer to be on board in the case of the Eurofighter, a plane that costs taxpayers more money in the countries concerned and which is struggling to be truly operational, as the British saw in Libya (and never seen in Afghanistan .. .)? We'd rather have to buy F-35 at a cost of acquisition and possession completely unpredictable, with the guarantee never to access the source code of the device and putting himself at the Washington thank you for the future (think the Franco-American crisis in Iraq at the time)?
It is true that the Rafale can not be exported. This is a very serious problem. But this should not make us forget that it was originally designed and is purchased to meet the needs of national defense. Is there a problem at that level? If so, let's talk.
The fact that it can not be exported (or not yet, hopefully) has a consequence for the state budget. The state commissions must keep afloat the production line of the aircraft. The pace is unsustainable: 11 planes per year, that is to say a month (except August when the plant is closed Merignac). The plant is designed to produce two per month - 22 per year.
But eleven aircraft a year, is it unreasonable for the military? To Rythmn, it takes two years to equip a single squadron of the Air Force. Over the next three years, she will receive 25 and the Navy 8. Again, it is not in the high speed, and armament. At this rate of 11 aircraft per year would require a quarter of a century to re-equip the armed fighters ...
Delivered to the dropper, but weighing heavy on public finances (1), the Rafale will remain in service probably forty years. Translate: in 2050, it will fly again. By then, it took to modernize they are not downgraded. Hence the strategic importance for our country to retain the ability to do so. It's called the offices and workshops. In short, industry.
(1) One could read recently in a feather too light as the Rafale accounted for 35% of capital expenditure of Defence. Not very serious: 14% (1.57 billion in 2012 for a total of 11.13), is already a lot.
