PARIKRAMA
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Good, I think localisation is the key, it will have multiplier effects in other manufacturing industries in India and as you said before - this will help us with our projects over time.
So if I roughly calculate:
If we are ordering around 300 just for IAF,
300 - (90 for first tranche) - (36 from France) = 174.
So around 150 to 170 jets from later batches will have a good amount of localization... (Would you agree, or am I just being an idiot, or is it too hard to tell for the time being?)
Anyway, I am quite happy with around half of the jets being screwed together and half being made in India - that's a damn good deal considering all the other tech that will come along with it!
as of now what i know is there are planned 5 tranches for an amount greater than 300 jets . This includes for both the forces - IAF and IN.
IN wants 100+ Rafale Ms. I was sure about the Catobar part but recently a professional in another forum suggested that IN wants Rafale for STOBAR IAC1 too.. As of now i know for sure air wing for IAC 1 which i think will be inducted by Dec06, 2019 is not yet ordered. Nor Rafale had done any testing in STBF INS Hansa. But if such a case arises, the IAC1 wing of 42-45 Rafales will also be ordered from Merignac.
So its a bit difficult to actually spell out how many may be in Merignac but roughly it should be 83-99 (36+18+45 or 36+18+27). That roughly leaves around 200+ in MII line out of which tranche 1 will be 90. Originally i heard a ratio of 1:3 thats is 1 plane in Merignac and 3 planes in MII line so if that happens then the numbers would increase further.
Yes by the middle of first tranche we should see gradual reduction in the screw driver philosophy and by the end of 90, a good 50% part would be localised. But point to note is that economic value of this localised parts will not be very high. that part will come over time..